证券研究报告：有色金属 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-04-29 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 26.68 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）19.00 | / 16.64 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）507 | / 444 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 31.30 / 15.61 | | 资产负债率(%) | 47.3% | | 市盈率 | 24.93 | | 第一大股东 | 李金阳 | 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 赤峰黄金(600988) 25 年一季报点评：静待瓦萨成本企稳，金价上行 公司业绩释放有望加速 l 25 年 Q1 归母净利润 4.83 亿元，同比+141% 公司发布 2025 年一季报，受益黄金价格同比大幅上行，公司业 绩释放出色：营业收入 24.07 亿元，同比增长 3 ...

现货黄金突破3350美元/盎司，日内涨近1%。 ...

现货黄金站上3340美元/盎司，日内涨0.29%。 ...

Company Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, Lao Feng Xiang reported a significant decline in both revenue and net profit, with revenue at 17.521 billion yuan, down 31.64% year-on-year, and net profit at 613 million yuan, down 23.55% year-on-year [2] - This performance continues the downward trend observed in 2024, marking the largest quarterly decline in recent years [2] - The decrease in revenue is primarily attributed to the performance of its subsidiaries, Shanghai Lao Feng Xiang Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Lao Feng Xiang Silver Building Co., Ltd. [2] Industry Context - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, leading to insufficient demand and weak consumption, which, combined with rising gold prices, has resulted in sluggish gold jewelry consumption [2] - The competitive landscape within the industry is intensifying, with a trend of store closures accelerating [2] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's total gold consumption was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%, with gold jewelry consumption dropping by 26.85% [3] Market Reaction - Despite the rising prices of gold, consumer preference has shifted towards gold bars and other products with stronger value retention, leading to a decline in demand for gold jewelry [2] - Capital markets reflect this trend, with gold-themed ETFs rising over 30% in 2025, while Lao Feng Xiang's stock price has decreased by 6.45% since the beginning of the year, closing at 50.77 yuan per share on April 28, 2025 [3]

现货黄金持续走高，站上3350美元/盎司，日内涨1.87%。 ...

现货黄金向上触及3330美元/盎司，日内涨1.27%。 ...

现货黄金周四开涨7美元，最新报3295美元/盎司。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **gold jewelry industry**, highlighting the impact of fluctuating gold prices on consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gold Price Impact**: The rapid increase in gold prices, with a notable rise of approximately **20%** in Q2 of the previous year, has led to a decline in retail consumption due to consumer hesitation. However, as the sales season approached and price increases slowed, the decline in consumption narrowed, with a recovery in retail growth observed in Q1 of this year [1][2][4]. - **Consumer Behavior**: A moderate increase in gold prices (annual growth <15%) tends to boost consumer confidence, leading to a potential rise in both volume and price. The shift towards higher weight gold products is an example of this trend [1][5]. - **One-Price Gold Products**: These products have gained popularity during periods of rapid price increases due to their controllable total price and appealing designs. This trend is reflected in the increased daily foot traffic at stores like Lao Pu Gold [1][4][6]. - **New Store Openings**: New store openings significantly increase the demand for gold jewelry procurement, prompting brands and franchisees to expand their purchasing scale to meet market demand and maintain competitiveness [1][7]. - **Market Competition**: The gold jewelry market is transitioning into a phase of stock competition, with growth driven by channels slowing down. The market share of the top five brands has doubled since 2017, but the channel dividends are diminishing, leading to a reduction in new store openings and overall industry growth [1][8][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Trends**: The future of the gold jewelry industry is expected to focus on product and brand upgrades rather than relying solely on channel expansion. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Lao Feng Xiang are successfully differentiating their products and building strong brands [3][12]. - **Challenges**: The industry faces challenges such as reduced channel dividends, increased pressure on terminal sales, and declining investment returns. Franchisees need to attract more foot traffic, which impacts sales and profits [11]. - **Valuation and Dividends**: Major gold jewelry companies are currently valued relatively low, with P/E ratios around **13 to 14 times** for 2025. These companies exhibit strong dividend yields, ranging from **5% to 8%**, indicating a solid safety profile [17]. - **Performance of Key Players**: Companies like Lao Feng Xiang have shown strong performance, with expectations for profit revisions upwards to **3.5 billion yuan** for 2025. Their strategic store openings and promotional activities have contributed to this growth [18][19]. Conclusion - The gold jewelry industry is navigating a complex landscape influenced by gold price fluctuations, changing consumer preferences, and competitive dynamics. Future growth will likely depend on innovation in product offerings and brand positioning rather than traditional expansion strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in international gold prices, which have consistently broken through key thresholds, reaching historical highs, and the resulting impact on the futures and options markets [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - International gold prices have shown strong performance, recently surpassing $3,400 and $3,500 per ounce, with COMEX gold futures reported at $3,440 per ounce, marking a 0.43% increase [1]. - Spot gold prices reached a high of $3,500.12 per ounce, setting a new historical record [1]. Group 2: Options Market Activity - The surge in gold prices has triggered significant activity in the options market, particularly a phenomenon known as "doomsday wheel," which occurs in the days leading up to options expiration [3]. - Several deep out-of-the-money call options for gold futures saw dramatic price increases, with some contracts experiencing gains of up to 9,800% [3]. Group 3: Futures Market Dynamics - Gold futures have attracted substantial capital inflow, with total funds in gold futures reaching approximately 980.4 billion yuan, surpassing major stock index futures [8]. - The total open interest in gold futures has increased significantly, reaching a historical high of 453,000 contracts, up from 392,000 contracts earlier in the month [9]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Despite the bullish sentiment towards gold, some institutions are cautioning about potential short-term adjustments due to the rapid price increases and changing market conditions [10]. - The increase in market volatility has led trading firms to raise margin requirements and price limits for gold futures to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [9].

4月22日， 国际黄金期货和现货价格分别一度上涨至每盎司3509.9美元和3500.12美元，创历史新高。 金价今年迄今涨幅超过比特币。在近七个交易日内， 国际金价接连涨破每盎司3200美元、3300美元、3400美元以及3500美元四道整数关口。 国内首饰金价也随之水涨船高， 4月22日，周大福、六福珠宝、金至尊等金价均突破1080元/克，日涨幅均超4%。 今年以来， 随着金价持续上涨，多家银行调整积存金产品的起购金额。4月22日，中国银行发布公告称，根据人民银行《黄金积存业务管理暂行办法》规 定，参考当前市场情况，将于4月23日起调整积存金产品的购买条件。 具体调整情况如下： 1.按金额购买积存金产品或创建积存定投计划时，最小购买金额由750元调整为850元，追加购买金额维持200元整数倍不变。已在执行中的定投计划不受 影响。 2.按克重购买积存金产品或创建积存定投计划时，最小购买克重维持为1克不变，追加克重维持为1克整数倍不变。 值得注意的是，这是中国银行月内第二次、年内第三次对积存金产品起购金额进行调整。今年2月7日，中国银行宣布自2月10日起，将最小购买金额由650 元调整为700元；4月1日，中国 ...