北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）9月25日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外 汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1118元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1077元，调贬41个基点。 截至最新发稿时间9时36分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1283，日内升值0.04%；离岸人民币对美元报 7.1329，日内升值0.07%。 ...

Core Insights - The interbank foreign exchange market in August experienced stable trading, with a slight year-on-year decline in average daily trading volume [1] - The offshore yuan exchange rate showed a significant appreciation towards the end of August, reflecting stronger market expectations [2] - The implied volatility in the options market indicated a rising short-term appreciation expectation for the yuan [4] Group 1: Trading Volume and Market Activity - In August, the average daily trading volume in the interbank foreign exchange market was $191.86 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 7.06% [1] - The average daily trading volume for the yuan was $136.03 billion, down 9.32% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [1] - The foreign currency market and foreign currency interest rate market remained active, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 20% [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Movements - The onshore yuan exchange rate fluctuated between 7.1650 and 7.1950 in early August, strengthening to a midpoint of 7.1030 by the end of the month, representing a 0.83% appreciation [1] - The average daily deviation of the market transaction price from the midpoint was 441 basis points, widening by 236 basis points compared to the previous month [1] - The offshore yuan (CNH) appreciated by 1.02% by the end of August, closing at 7.1276 [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Behavior - The average daily net selling of foreign exchange in August was $1.78 million, with a shift from net buying in the first half of the month to net selling in the second half [2] - The market's herd effect index was recorded at 63.52, slightly down from July but above the historical average of 62.65 [2][3] Group 4: Options Market and Interest Rate Differentials - The average daily trading volume in the yuan foreign exchange options market was $5.83 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 22.51% [4] - The implied volatility for at-the-money options rebounded, indicating a notable increase in market sentiment regarding short-term yuan appreciation [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.23% by the end of August, contributing to a narrowing of the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. [4]

中国经济网北京9月25日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.1118，较前一交易日下调41个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月25日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.1118元，1欧元对人民币8.3614元，100日元对人民币4.7885元，1港元对人民币0.91434元，1 英镑对人民币9.5817元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6924元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1461元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.5271元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.9632元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1261元，人民币1元对1.1270澳门 元，人民币1元对0.59169马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.7444俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4343南非兰 特，人民币1元对196.97韩元，人民币1元对0.51568阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52662沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.8253匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51057波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8923丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3193瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.3955挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.8245 ...

Report Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the entire report were provided. Core Views - The macro - economic situation is complex. In the domestic market, economic growth is slowing, but policy support is in place. The stock market is strong, while the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle in September, and future policies will depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the fluctuation center is around 7.10, and there is no sign of a trend appreciation for now. The Fed faces challenges in formulating monetary policies, and excessive bets on loose policies may bring risks [4]. - The stock index has support below due to pre - holiday risk - aversion, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The bond market is expected to remain volatile, and the current market lacks positive drivers [8][9]. - The shipping index (European line) futures price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and investors can pay attention to the long - position opportunities of the 12 - contract [11]. - Precious metals may be bullish in the long - term, but the short - term upward momentum is weakening. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday [12][16]. - Copper is expected to remain stable and may fluctuate slightly above 80,000 yuan per ton. Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate strongly [17][18]. - Zinc is expected to move downward slowly. Nickel and stainless steel short - positions can be stopped and reduced at low prices, and attention should be paid to subsequent macro - guidance [20][21]. - Tin is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities. Carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday. Lead is expected to be cautiously bullish [26][29]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. Iron ore is expected to trade based on fundamentals and fluctuate. Coking coal and coke are anti - falling, and it is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [31][33][35]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have cost support, and their downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. - Crude oil is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate in a range. PTA - PX prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to try long positions cautiously. Methanol is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [43][46][48]. - PP's downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices. PE is expected to fluctuate [51][54]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a weak state, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - Rubber is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - Pulp is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices. Logs are expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [70][71]. - Propylene investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74]. Summary by Directory Macro - The US manufacturing and service PMI declined in September, and the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell back into the contraction range. The Fed's interest - rate cut path has differences, and the market is concerned about the PCE data [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1133 on the previous trading day, up 15 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1057, up 49 basis points. The RMB is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated yesterday, and the large - cap index was relatively resistant to decline. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [6][8]. Bond - The bond market fell yesterday, and it is recommended to use a volatile trading idea and buy long positions at intervals [9]. Shipping - The shipping index (European line) futures price fell back. The spot price of some shipping companies increased, while others decreased. It is expected to fluctuate, and the 12 - contract can be considered for long positions [10][11]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose and then fell on Tuesday. The upward momentum weakened. It is recommended to reduce long positions during the holiday. The medium - and long - term may be bullish, and the short - term may be adjusted [12][16]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price remained stable at around 80,000 yuan per ton, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly above this level [17]. - **Aluminum**: The price is affected by macro - policies and fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly after a short - term correction [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in an oversupply state, and the price is expected to be weak [19]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to move downward slowly, and it is recommended to buy put options or sell call options [20][21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to stop and reduce short positions at low prices [21][22]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to remain volatile, and investors can wait for long - entry opportunities [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [24][25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The price is expected to be in a state of multi - and short - retreat before the holiday [26][27]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be cautiously bullish [29]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of crude steel has shrunk, and the demand has improved slightly. The inventory is still at a high level, and the price is expected to fluctuate [31]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply has recovered, and the demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to fluctuate [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is anti - falling. It is not recommended to use coking coal as a short - position variety in the black market [35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The cost provides support, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to try long positions at specific price points [36][37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rebounded, but it is in a game between fundamental pressure and geopolitical risks, and it is difficult to get rid of the rhythm of weak rebound and then decline in the short term [40]. - **LPG**: The price rebounded with emotions and crude oil, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [41][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The price declined due to pessimistic emotions. It is recommended to try long positions cautiously [44][46]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to reduce long positions and hold short - put options [48]. - **PP**: The downward space is limited, and investors can pay attention to device changes and long - entry opportunities at low prices [51]. - **PE**: The price is expected to fluctuate [54]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The price fell, and the low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread is weakening. Asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly [55][58][60]. - **Rubber**: It is cautiously bullish in the short term and neutral in the long term. There are arbitrage opportunities between varieties [64]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Glass lacks a clear trading logic, and caustic soda's supply - demand contradiction is limited [66][67][68]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [70]. - **Logs**: The price is expected to have low - volatility fluctuations [71]. - **Propylene**: Investors can pay attention to the PP - PL spread and hold the PP - PL spread expansion position [74].

上证报中国证券网讯（记者 陈佳怡）9月24日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘小幅上涨，报 7.1132，前一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1133。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.1147。 同日，人民币对美元中间价下调20个基点，报7.1077。 与此同时，美元指数震荡上行，截至9时30分，报97.3384。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛在一份报告中分析，8月份，美联储降息预期强化，叠加市场对美联储 独立性担忧加剧，促使美元重新转弱，人民币汇率升值动能增强，但市场预期保持基本稳定。跨境资金 转为净流入，主要反映了美债收益率下行、外资放缓减持境内人民币债券的影响，外资对中国股票资产 兴趣增强。8月份，银行结售汇顺差收窄，市场主体结汇意愿减弱、购汇动机增强，表明人民币汇率加 速升值并非基本面主导。市场结售汇意愿变化，再次说明市场主体并未积累汇率补涨预期。 ...

（责任编辑：魏京婷） 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月24日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1077元，1欧元对人民币8.3939元，100日元对人民币4.8147元，1港元对人民币0.91429 元，1英镑对人民币9.6106元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6894元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1630元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5387元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.9791元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1363元，人民币1元对1.1271 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59046马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.7567俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4267南 非兰特，人民币1元对196.05韩元，人民币1元对0.51675阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52772沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.4425匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50718波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8891丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3135瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.3908挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.82693土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5818墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4827泰铢。 中国经济网北京9月24日讯 ...

图源：中国外汇交易中心网站截图 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 来源：中国新闻网 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 9月24日人民币对美元中间价报7.1077元 下调20个基点 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新网9月24日电 据中国外汇交易中心网站消息，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年9月24日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元对 人民币7.1077元，下调20个基点。 编辑：郭晋嘉 ...

Group 1: Currency Trends - In August, the USD index fell from above 100 to 97.8, a cumulative decline of 2.2% due to weaker employment data and increased expectations for Fed rate cuts[3] - The RMB exchange rate strengthened for the fourth consecutive month, with the midpoint rate appreciating by an average of 8 basis points from August 1 to 20, and accelerating to an average of 51 basis points in late August[4] - By the end of August, the RMB midpoint, onshore, and offshore exchange rates reached 7.1030, 7.1330, and 7.1221 respectively, appreciating by 0.7%, 0.8%, and 1.2% compared to the end of the previous month[4] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In August, banks reported a surplus in foreign exchange transactions, narrowing to $16.8 billion, the lowest in four months, indicating a decrease in the willingness to settle foreign exchange[22] - The net inflow of cross-border funds was reflected in a shift from a deficit of $7.7 billion to a surplus of $3.2 billion in bank foreign exchange payments[14] - Foreign investment in Chinese stocks reached a net inflow of $10.8 billion, the highest since February, while overall foreign investment in emerging markets was approximately $45 billion[17] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The nominal effective exchange rate index and the real effective exchange rate index of the RMB increased by 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, indicating a slight reduction in the impact of RMB fluctuations on export competitiveness[5] - Direct investment foreign exchange payments showed a deficit increase of $4.5 billion to $7.5 billion, with foreign income dropping to $50.2 billion, the lowest in five years[18] - The trade surplus in goods payments decreased by $16.5 billion to $72.9 billion, reflecting slower collection rates from export enterprises[18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent US Federal Reserve interest rate cut and its impact on the Chinese yuan, particularly in the context of US-China negotiations, suggesting that currency exchange rates are a significant focus of these discussions [1][4][8]. Group 1: Currency and Policy Implications - The yuan is approaching 7.1, indicating that exchange rates are a key topic in US-China negotiations, with the US aiming for yuan appreciation to attract capital back to the US [8][9]. - The article suggests that both countries have a mutual interest in a gradual appreciation of the yuan to support domestic demand recovery in China [9][10]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is seen as a catalyst for potential changes in domestic policies in China, with expectations of new growth-stimulating measures following the Fed's actions [21][28]. Group 2: Domestic Policy and Economic Strategy - Following the US-China negotiations, China announced policies to expand service consumption, indicating a strategic response to the current economic climate [15][21]. - The article emphasizes that any domestic interest rate cuts in China will depend on the extent of the Fed's rate cuts, with a potential follow-up of 10 basis points if the Fed cuts by 50 basis points [29][30]. - The discussion includes the importance of a coordinated monetary policy approach, suggesting that domestic rate cuts may serve to manage cross-border capital flows rather than purely stimulate the economy [18][29]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article highlights the potential for significant policy changes that could impact the market, particularly with the introduction of market-oriented reforms that may create new investment opportunities [26][27]. - It notes that the current market dynamics are influenced by a shift towards cyclical sectors, which may change as new policies are implemented [22][36]. - The article concludes with a focus on the importance of long-term decision-making in the face of short-term market volatility, emphasizing the ongoing easing cycle and the potential for increased domestic policy support [36][37].

Core Insights - Since the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," China's foreign exchange sector has effectively coordinated development and security, steadily advancing high-level openness, which provides strong support for constructing a new development pattern [1] Group 1: International Balance of Payments - China's international balance of payments has become more stable, with a reasonable ratio of current account surplus to GDP [1] - By the end of July, foreign institutions and individuals held over 10 trillion yuan in domestic stocks, bonds, and deposits [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - In 2024, China's cross-border capital flow scale is projected to reach 14 trillion USD, a 64% increase from 2020, with an average annual growth rate 8 percentage points higher than during the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The trading volume in the foreign exchange market is expected to be 41 trillion USD in 2024, a 37% increase from 2020, indicating sufficient capacity to accommodate various transactions [2] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Resilience - The ratio of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to around 30%, while the proportion of the renminbi in cross-border trade has risen from 16% to nearly 30% [2] - The macro-prudential management system of the foreign exchange market is gradually improving, with a richer toolbox for counter-cyclical adjustments [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy and steady progress in high-level openness lay a solid foundation for a stable international balance of payments [3] - The foreign exchange reserve has remained stable above 3 trillion USD, exceeding 3.2 trillion USD in recent years, serving as an important stabilizer for the national economy [4]