来源：华夏时报 各方都在争夺美元资产时，12月美联储降息预期大减，全球市场美元存款、美元PE、美元理财、美元 基金等都面临同一个难题：如何调整投资策略避免收益缩水。 北京时间11月20日，美国劳工统计局宣布原定于12月5日发布的11月就业报告，将推迟至12月16日发 布，届时将包含该机构收集到的部分10月份数据；同日，美国9月季调后的非农数据也发布为11.9万 人，大大超过预期的5万人，失业率基本维持持平保持在4.3%—4.4%。美国系列重磅数据的公布，让市 场几乎放弃对12月美联储降息的押注。与此同时，在人民币汇率保持稳健态势之际，11月14日，人民币 兑美元汇率最高涨至7.09附近，也使得离岸银行间市场美元存款几乎未作调整，进一步阻止了美元存款 的流出。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，从年度走势来看，美元兑人民币整体走出一个单边下跌的形态。年 初至今以1美元兑7.27人民币（离岸价）开局，随后美国连续暂停降息，美元曾呈现强势，离岸人民币 的低点在今年4月8日产生，一度触及1美元兑7.42879人民币，不过随后美联储降息的态势越来越明确， 美元高位跳水，出现明显下跌，人民币走强。 王青判断，趋势仍会延续， ...

Core Insights - The resurgence of USD funds in China is driven by policy incentives and continuous technological innovations, particularly in the AI sector, which presents a significant opportunity for global capital [1] Group 1: Fundraising Activity - November has seen a concentrated surge in USD fund fundraising, with notable announcements including Monolith's dual-currency fund totaling $488 million (approximately 3.5 billion RMB) and Source Code Capital's new growth fund of $600 million [2] - Blue Pool Capital is reportedly raising $750 million (approximately 5.3 billion RMB) for its first direct private equity fund, focusing on global consumer, finance, and technology sectors [2] - Kwan Bridge Capital announced the completion of its second USD fund with a total size of $500 million, aimed at supporting medical innovation and sustainable growth globally [2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Institutions - Foreign institutions are accelerating their presence in China, with notable examples including Kasikorn Bank establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary for private equity investments and KKR launching a domestic private investment entity [3] Group 3: Focus on AI Sector - Both Monolith and Source Code Capital have identified AI as a core investment focus, with Source Code Capital targeting "AI+" related fields and Monolith covering the entire AI industry chain [4] - Monolith's new funds experienced oversubscription, achieving approximately 160% of their initial target with total subscriptions around $630 million, although they opted to reduce the final fundraising size to $488 million [4] - Source Code Capital has introduced an unconventional 25-year fund lifespan, reflecting LPs' long-term confidence in the Chinese market [5] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The current fundraising wave is indicative of a market recovery, with global capital increasingly optimistic about Chinese tech assets, especially in AI [6] - There exists a significant valuation disparity between Chinese and U.S. AI companies, with Chinese firms like Yushu Technology valued at around 10 billion RMB compared to U.S. counterparts at approximately $39 billion (around 280 billion RMB) [6] - The number of financing events in China's AI sector has increased significantly, with 163 events reported in August 2025, up by 66 from the previous year [6] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the global AI sector is primarily between China and the U.S., with China holding unique advantages in application fields and a wealth of entrepreneurial talent [7] - Family offices and other financial return-focused investors view allocation to the Chinese market as essential, particularly in consumer and emerging market sectors [7] - The ongoing recognition of Chinese tech assets by global capital, coupled with the continuous evolution of the AI industry, suggests that the USD fundraising trend in China's private equity market is likely to persist [7]

Core Insights - The resurgence of dollar funds in China is attributed to policy benefits and continuous technological innovations, particularly in the AI sector, which is seen as a significant investment opportunity for global capital [1][7]. Fundraising Activity - November has seen a concentrated wave of fundraising for dollar funds, with notable announcements including Monolith's dual-currency fund totaling $488 million (approximately 3.5 billion RMB) and Source Code Capital's new growth fund of $600 million [2]. - Blue Pool Capital is reportedly raising $750 million (approximately 5.3 billion RMB) for its first direct private equity fund, focusing on global consumer, financial, and technology sectors [2]. - Kwan Bridge Capital announced the completion of its $500 million dollar fund aimed at healthcare innovation [2]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign institutions are accelerating their investments in China, with notable examples including Kasikorn Bank establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary for private equity investments and KKR launching a domestic private equity entity [3]. Focus on AI Sector - Both Monolith and Source Code Capital have identified AI as a core investment area, with Source Code focusing on "AI+" sectors and Monolith covering the entire AI industry chain [4]. - Monolith's new fund experienced oversubscription, achieving around 160% of its initial target, but chose to reduce the final fundraising amount to $488 million to maintain investment discipline [4]. Fund Duration and Investor Confidence - Source Code Capital's new fund features an unconventional 25-year lifespan, reflecting long-term confidence from limited partners (LPs) in the Chinese market [5]. - Monolith's investor base includes long-term funds from Europe, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, providing a stable funding source [6]. Global Capital Dynamics - The renewed interest in Chinese assets, particularly in AI, is seen as a response to the undervaluation of these assets compared to similar ones in the U.S., with significant valuation discrepancies noted [7]. - The number of financing events in China's AI sector increased by 66 compared to the previous year, indicating a more selective investment approach despite a decrease in total financing amounts [7]. Competitive Landscape - The competition in the global AI sector is primarily between China and the U.S., with China having unique advantages in application fields and a wealth of entrepreneurial talent [8]. - Family offices and other financial return-focused investors are increasingly interested in Chinese markets, particularly in consumer and emerging market sectors [8].

Core Insights - The primary focus of the article is the resurgence of dollar funds in the primary market, indicating a renewed confidence among investors in China's market [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable fundraising wave has emerged in the primary market, with several institutions announcing successful fundraising rounds, particularly for dollar funds [3][4]. - The dollar fund sector is experiencing a revival, with significant changes in recruitment trends, particularly for Investor Relations (IR) positions, signaling a potential increase in fundraising activities [6][7]. - Many institutions that previously focused on RMB funds are now expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, by adding dollar IR positions [7]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - There is a marked increase in engagement from foreign Limited Partners (LPs), with many foreign family offices conducting intensive research trips to China, indicating a renewed recognition of China's technological innovation and asset value [7][8]. - Recent fundraising successes by firms like Monolith Capital and Source Code Capital have bolstered market confidence [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - Blue Pool Capital, backed by Alibaba's co-founder, is launching its first direct private equity fund with a target of $750 million, focusing on global investments, including in China [8]. - The shift in foreign investment sentiment is attributed to ongoing policy benefits and significant breakthroughs in domestic technology, leading to a recovery in market confidence [10][15]. Group 4: Regional Initiatives - Shenzhen has introduced a comprehensive plan to attract overseas sovereign funds, aiming to enhance cross-border capital cooperation and support local industries [11][12]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is also focusing on expanding institutional openness and cross-border investment channels, encouraging long-term value investments rather than short-term trading [12]. Group 5: Asset Valuation - The article emphasizes the re-evaluation of Chinese assets, particularly in competitive sectors like manufacturing and the vast consumer market, which are seen as undervalued [13]. - The global competitive landscape is shifting, with Chinese entrepreneurs and tech companies gaining parity with their U.S. counterparts, leading to increased foreign interest in China's innovation capabilities [13][15].

Core Viewpoint - The current exchange rate between the US dollar and the Chinese yuan shows slight fluctuations, with the central parity at 7.0928 and market rates at 7.1230 for onshore and 7.1253 for offshore, indicating a stable yet slightly stronger yuan [1][2][4]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The central parity rate set by the central bank reflects a reasonable level for the yuan, with a small decrease suggesting a slight strengthening of the currency [2][4]. - The onshore market rate remains stable, while the offshore rate shows a minor premium, indicating confidence in the yuan from international markets [2][4]. Economic Fundamentals - The resilience of the yuan is attributed to strong domestic economic fundamentals, including stable manufacturing and recovering consumer demand, alongside a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve [4][8]. - The narrowing price gap between onshore and offshore rates suggests that foreign capital is not fleeing but rather observing the market with a degree of optimism [4][8]. Practical Tips for Currency Exchange - For individuals looking to exchange currency, it is advisable to monitor rates closely, especially one week prior to travel, to avoid significant fluctuations [6][8]. - Utilizing platforms that allow for real-time exchange rate monitoring can help consumers save on costs when purchasing imported goods or investing in dollar-denominated assets [6][8]. Long-term Outlook - The exchange rate is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook for the yuan remains positive due to stable domestic policies and strong export competitiveness [8]. - Individuals are encouraged to enhance their financial literacy regarding exchange rates to better navigate currency fluctuations and optimize their spending [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the resurgence of USD funds in 2025, highlighting a significant fundraising round exceeding $2 billion, which is seen as a potential turning point for USD investments in China after a prolonged period of stagnation [5][6][14]. Fundraising Dynamics - Several institutions, including Lightspeed Venture Partners and Black Ant Capital, are reportedly raising new USD funds, with a total target exceeding $2 billion, marking the largest USD fund return in recent years [6][14]. - The primary market views this fundraising positively, interpreting it as a sign of global capital reassessing the Chinese market [7][14]. - The fundraising process is described as low-key, with key details such as closing times and LP composition remaining undisclosed [9]. Investment Trends - Despite caution in sectors like semiconductors and AI, areas such as AI+, robotics, and pharmaceuticals are emerging as key investment directions for this fundraising round [11]. - International investors are increasingly interested in China's advancements in hard technology, with a consensus that the pharmaceutical sector has become attractive due to valuation adjustments [11][12]. - There is a shift in the expectations of US LPs, who are now looking for Chinese GP to establish funds focused on pipeline acquisitions rather than traditional equity financing [11][12]. Market Context - The overall fundraising situation for USD funds remains challenging, with a reported 32% decrease in China's private equity market fundraising, totaling over 1,066.5 billion yuan [14]. - The actions of leading USD fund institutions are viewed as a potential precursor to a broader recovery in the market [14][15]. Structural Changes - The article outlines a structural transformation in USD funds, moving from a focus on internet-based investments to deeper engagement in non-sensitive sectors and innovative opportunities [18]. - The shift in investment strategy is reflected in the language used by fund managers, moving away from terms like "burning money" to concepts like "patent licensing" and "cross-cultural networks" [18]. Historical Perspective - The peak expansion period for USD funds in China was from 2000 to 2015, driven by regulatory arbitrage and significant returns from investments in major tech companies [17]. - The decline from 2015 to 2023 was attributed to the rise of RMB funds and external market pressures, leading to a drastic drop in USD fundraising from $17.2 billion in 2021 to $1.3 billion in 2024 [17]. Future Outlook - While the current fundraising activities are seen as a trial, the long-term outlook for USD funds in China is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of increased influence and scale in the coming years [16][18].