美联储新任理事人选斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）出身学术界，拥有哈佛经济学博士背景，并有财政 部及白宫经济顾问委员会主席的高层履历。 他政治立场鲜明，长期支持特朗普经济议程，公开批评美联储降息与"旋转门"现象，主张削弱美联储独 立性，包括缩短理事任期、允许总统罢免及将预算纳入国会拨款。 市场普遍认为，此次提名对9月及年底降息预期影响有限，降息判断更多来自疲软的就业数据。多家机 构指出，米兰缺乏金融与商业实务经验，政治色彩浓厚，提名过程争议大，且部分机构预测参议院难以 批准。 他在短期内可能成为可靠的鸽派票源，有利于降息倾向，但其能否对美联储政策路径产生实质性改变， 仍取决于其他委员的态度与任期长度。 斯蒂芬·米兰简介 1. 教育背景：2005年毕业于波士顿大学，获经济学、哲学和数学三学位；2010年获哈佛大学经济学博士 学位。 4. 牛津经济研究：此事对货币政策走向影响有限，核心变数在于此提名能否来得及获得确认并在9月会 议投票。当前9月降息概率的确在攀升，但主因是近期就业数据疲软，与此次提名无关。 5. 米施勒金融集团：米兰的提名对美联储有好处，因其倾向于降息。他曾效力特朗普首任政府，如今再 获 ...

Core Points - President Trump appointed Stephen Miran as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, filling a vacancy left by former member Adriana Kugler, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [1] - Miran has a strong academic background with a PhD in economics from Harvard and has experience in both the private sector and federal government, making him a key figure in shaping economic policy [1] - Trump's administration is actively seeking to influence the Federal Reserve's decision-making, particularly in light of upcoming midterm elections [1][5] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Board consists of 7 members who directly influence the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decisions, which include evaluating economic conditions to adjust interest rates [1] - Miran has previously criticized the large-scale fiscal stimulus policies favored by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy direction [2] - Trump has been pressuring Powell to resign due to dissatisfaction with the Fed's interest rate policies, aiming to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs and government debt [5] Group 2 - Powell's term ends in May 2026, and he has faced significant pressure from Trump but remains committed to his position [6] - Trump is interviewing three candidates for potential replacements for Powell, all of whom align with his ideological views, suggesting a more dovish approach to monetary policy in the future [7] - The upcoming FOMC meetings on September 16, October 28, and December 9 will be crucial in determining the future monetary policy stance, which may impact global capital confidence [7]

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board is seen as a significant move to reshape the Fed's leadership and align it more closely with his economic agenda, particularly in advocating for lower interest rates and financial deregulation [2][4][17]. Summary by Sections Nomination Announcement - Trump announced the nomination of Stephen Miran to fill the vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's resignation from the Federal Reserve Board [2][3]. Background of Stephen Miran - Miran is praised by Trump for his unparalleled expertise in economics and has been a close advisor since Trump's second term began [3]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord" paper advocating for a lower long-term value of the dollar and has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Views on Federal Reserve - Miran has criticized the Fed's flexible inflation targets and warned that failure to manage inflation could lead to legislative changes to the Federal Reserve Act or the dismissal of board members by future presidents [6]. - He has also pointed out that the Fed's policies have created market expectations for aggressive easing in response to economic downturns [7]. Proposed Reforms - Miran has co-authored a report suggesting radical reforms for the Federal Reserve, including: - Granting voting rights to all Fed officials at every FOMC meeting [8]. - Allowing state governors to control local oversight committees for selecting regional Fed presidents [9]. - Permitting the White House to dismiss Fed officials at any time [10]. - Prohibiting board members from taking executive branch positions for four years after their term [11]. - Requiring Congress to allocate the Fed's operating budget [12]. Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors viewing it positively for potential rate cuts, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [13][14]. - Analysts generally believe that Miran's nomination will not alter expectations for an upcoming rate cut by the Fed [14]. Implications of the Nomination - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions [16]. - His nomination is seen as the beginning of Trump's long-term plan to reshape the Fed, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the FOMC [17].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve Board by President Trump signals a clear direction for future U.S. monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Philosophy and Policy - Milan's economic philosophy aligns closely with Trump's "America First" agenda, advocating for supply-side economic policies such as tax cuts, deregulation, and increased energy production as fundamental measures against inflation [1]. - He is a staunch "hawk" on inflation, criticizing the Fed's previous rate cuts under Powell, arguing that the Fed's tolerance for inflation rates close to 3% undermines the legislative spirit of "stabilizing prices" [1][5]. Group 2: Independence of the Federal Reserve - Milan has expressed concerns over the blurred lines between fiscal and monetary policy since the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting that this has compromised the Fed's institutional independence [1][3]. - His call for Congress to reform the Fed's structure to allow the White House greater power to dismiss Fed officials indicates a push towards reducing the Fed's autonomy [2][3]. Group 3: Strategic Implications of the Nomination - The unexpected departure of current board member Kugler provides Trump with a strategic opportunity, as Milan's short-term appointment could influence future leadership decisions at the Fed [4]. - Milan's presence on the board, even for a brief period, is expected to heighten market uncertainty regarding the Fed's future policy direction, reflecting Trump's intent to exert influence over monetary policy [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The potential successors to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are under close scrutiny by investors and strategists, with market reactions likely influenced by the perceived alignment of these candidates with President Trump's views [1][4]. Candidate Analysis - Christopher Waller is seen as the top candidate for the Fed chair position, and his appointment could lead to positive market reactions due to continuity in leadership [1][3][5]. - Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are also considered potential nominees, but their close ties to Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to negative market responses [1][9]. Market Expectations - Investors expect the next Fed chair to be a loyal supporter of Trump with a dovish stance, which could influence market dynamics [2]. - The market's reaction may vary based on how closely candidates are perceived to align with Trump's policies, with a stronger alignment likely resulting in negative impacts on U.S. assets [4][9]. Policy Continuity - Waller's support for immediate rate cuts and his flexible approach during his tenure at the Fed suggest he could maintain the current management style, which may be welcomed by the market [6][5]. - Analysts believe that if Hassett is nominated, it could lead to rising long-term Treasury yields and a sell-off in the dollar due to concerns over the Fed's independence [9]. Independence Concerns - The independence of the Federal Reserve remains a central concern for investors, with potential nominees' connections to the White House being a significant factor in market reactions [4][10]. - If a nominee is perceived as lacking experience in the Fed or economic fields, it could lead to the most significant market disruptions and further questions about the Fed's independence [10].

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Stephen Miran is seen as the beginning of a long-term plan to reshape the Federal Reserve, potentially undermining the authority of current Chairman Jerome Powell [1][15]. Group 1: Nomination Details - Trump officially nominated Stephen Miran to fill the vacant Federal Reserve Board seat left by Adriana Kugler's resignation, praising Miran's unparalleled expertise in economics [3]. - Miran's nomination is viewed as a significant step in Trump's efforts to reform the Federal Reserve leadership during his second term [4][15]. Group 2: Miran's Policy Views - Miran has publicly questioned the independence of the Federal Reserve and advocates for radical reforms, including allowing all Federal Reserve officials to vote at every meeting and granting the White House the power to dismiss central bank officials at any time [4][7]. - He is known for his influential "Mar-a-Lago Accord," which argues for measures to lower the long-term value of the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street's reaction to Miran's nomination is mixed, with some investors believing it could be beneficial for the market, while others express concerns about his qualifications and political stance [12]. - Analysts generally agree that Miran's nomination is unlikely to change expectations for an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [13][14]. Group 4: Implications for the Federal Reserve - If confirmed, Miran will serve until the end of January, with limited opportunities to influence rate decisions, especially given the high likelihood of a rate cut in September [14]. - His appointment is interpreted as a significant symbolic move, introducing a strong "MAGA perspective" into the Federal Open Market Committee, indicating a potential shift in the operational and policy discourse of the Federal Reserve [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the position of the Federal Reserve Chairman, highlighting the withdrawal of Treasury Secretary Scott Pruitt from the race and focusing on Kevin Hassett, Kevin Warsh, and current Fed Governor Christopher Waller as the main contenders [1][12]. Candidate Profiles - **Kevin Warsh**: - Warsh is the youngest among the candidates, born in 1970, and has a strong academic background with degrees from Stanford University and Harvard Law School. He has experience in both Wall Street and government, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011, where he played a key role during the 2008 financial crisis [2][4]. - **Kevin Hassett**: - Hassett, aged 63, is an economist with a Ph.D. and has previously served as the Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2017 to 2019. He has recently shifted his public stance on the Fed, becoming a critic of current Chairman Jerome Powell, which has increased his visibility as a candidate [5][8]. - **Christopher Waller**: - Waller has a robust academic and professional background, being the first in his family to attend college. He was appointed as a Federal Reserve Governor in December 2020 and has gained influence within the Fed, particularly noted for his views on labor market dynamics [9][11]. Political Context - President Trump has initiated discussions regarding the next Fed Chairman, indicating that the selection process is underway. The potential candidates are seen as having varying degrees of alignment with Trump's economic policies, which may influence their chances of selection [1][12]. - The article suggests that Trump's early announcement of potential candidates may serve as a pressure tactic against current Chairman Powell, reflecting the ongoing tension between the White House and the Federal Reserve [12].

美元指数周四上涨0.23%，收于98.400。 当地时间周四，据媒体援引知情人士报道，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒（Christopher Waller）正成为美 国总统特朗普及其团队所青睐的下任美联储主席热门人选。消息称，沃勒近期已与特朗普团队成员会 面，并留下良好印象，但尚未与特朗普本人会晤。 这一进展让市场重新评估政策前景，押注即便现任主席鲍威尔在明年5月任期届满后卸任，美联储的政 策框架和方向仍有望保持延续性。周四，美元兑主要货币走强，衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数上 涨0.23%，报98.400。 机构Corpay首席市场策略师卡尔·沙莫塔（Karl Schamotta）认为，沃勒在金融市场与央行体系内均享有 较高声誉。"他被普遍视为倾向宽松立场的政策制定者，但其资历与信誉足以稳定长期美债收益率，并 维持美元资金流入。"沙莫塔表示，若沃勒接任主席，市场对货币政策急转弯的担忧或将有所缓解。 连续性与灵活性并存 渣打银行全球G10外汇研究主管史蒂文·英格兰德（Steven Englander）分析称，沃勒可能最能代表美联 储当前管理模式的延续性。扬尼资本管理公司首席固定收益策略师盖伊·勒巴斯（Guy L ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair have been narrowed down to four individuals, indicating a significant shift in the political landscape surrounding the Fed's leadership [1][2]. Candidate Summary - The list of potential candidates includes former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and one unidentified candidate [2][3]. - The resignation of Fed Governor Kugler has created an opportunity for the White House to nominate a new member to the Fed Board, potentially influencing monetary policy [3]. Political Implications - Analysts suggest that the White House's intention to appoint a "shadow chair" is aimed at influencing market expectations and monetary policy before Powell's term ends [4]. - The motivation behind this political maneuvering is believed to be linked to alleviating fiscal pressures and stimulating the economy ahead of midterm elections [4]. Independence of the Federal Reserve - Despite attempts to influence the Fed, the institution's strong independence and decision-making mechanisms are expected to act as barriers against significant changes in policy direction [6][7]. - Legal restrictions prevent the arbitrary dismissal of the Fed Chair, and recent court rulings have reinforced the Fed's policy independence [6]. - The Federal Open Market Committee operates on a two-thirds majority voting system, which currently leans towards maintaining the status quo [6]. Potential Outcomes - Various scenarios are anticipated, including the appointment of a more dovish candidate or a loyal supporter of Trump, with the possibility of undermining Powell's authority before his term ends [4][5]. - The strategy of appointing a politically loyal candidate may lead to concerns about inflation and long-term interest rates, potentially harming the economy [7].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has escalated, with Trump openly criticizing Powell and suggesting potential replacements for the Fed chair position, indicating a power struggle that could impact the future of the U.S. economy [1][2][4]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump has been vocally critical of Powell, labeling him as "terrible" and "stupid," and has expressed a desire to replace him, which is unusual for a sitting president [1][2]. - The primary reason for Trump's criticism appears to be Powell's reluctance to lower interest rates as Trump desires, aiming to reduce borrowing costs for the federal government [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25% to 4.5% since January 2025, following three consecutive rate cuts starting in September 2024, which Trump wants to see reduced to 1% [4]. - Economic uncertainty remains high, with economists warning that Trump's tariffs and unstable trade policies could lead to a slowdown in the labor market and rising inflation, complicating the Fed's decision-making [4][5]. Group 3: Political Implications - Analysts suggest that Trump's attacks on Powell serve to shift blame for economic downturns caused by his own policies, effectively making Powell a "scapegoat" for the administration's economic challenges [5][6]. - The potential for Trump to replace Powell raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, as any new appointee may face pressure to align with Trump's economic agenda [8][12]. Group 4: Future of the Federal Reserve - Trump's administration has begun to exert pressure on Powell, citing budget overruns in Fed headquarters renovations as a possible justification for his removal [8]. - Despite the possibility of appointing a new Fed chair, experts caution that the new appointee would still need to navigate the consensus-driven nature of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to implement any significant policy changes [9][12].