1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The FOMC resolution was in line with expectations, with a dovish tone focusing on employment risks. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points in September 2025, the first rate cut of the year. The statement showed concerns about economic downside risks and employment, and there was internal disagreement mainly on the speed of rate cuts [2]. - The dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech at the press conference was hawkish. He emphasized data - driven decisions and that the current policy was not misaligned, and the exit of restrictive monetary policy remained uncertain [2]. - Powell's hawkish remarks reversed the initial market reaction. In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bull - steepening pattern, and the US dollar may remain weak. The Fed's rate cuts are beneficial to China's external environment, opening up space for aggregate monetary policies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 What to Focus on in the Fed's Interest - Rate Meeting 3.1.1 FOMC Resolution Starts to Focus on Employment Downside Risks - The September 2025 FOMC resolution had three points of focus compared to July: adding descriptions about rising unemployment in the fundamental assessment, highlighting employment downside risks in the risk assessment, and only new Fed governor Milan voting against the resolution, preferring a 0.5 - percentage - point rate cut [7]. - The market's immediate reaction to the resolution was mild as it had almost fully priced in the rate cut before the meeting. The S&P 500 rose 0.19%, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined, gold prices rose, and the US dollar index weakened slightly [9]. 3.1.2 Dot - Plot Shows Two More Rate Cuts This Year - The Fed's September 2025 economic forecast showed a slight decrease in the risk of stagnation and an increase in the risk of inflation. GDP growth forecasts were raised, unemployment forecasts were slightly lowered, inflation forecasts were slightly raised, and the median federal funds rate for 2025 decreased, indicating two more rate cuts this year [11]. - The narrowing of the central tendency suggested that the Fed believed the predictability of the economy was increasing [12]. 3.1.3 Press Conference Speech Is Hawkish, Reinforcing the Fed's Data - Driven Inertia - Powell's speech at the press conference was hawkish. He emphasized the Fed's independence, stating that decisions were based on data and economic understanding, and individual influence was exerted through persuasion [19]. - He also emphasized that the current restrictive policy was still applicable, the rate cut was a result of risk balancing, and future decisions would be data - dependent [19]. - The market prices were affected by his hawkish remarks. The S&P 500 fell, US Treasury yields rose, gold prices dropped, and the US dollar index increased [20]. 3.2 How to View the Market - In the short term, the US Treasury yield curve may show a bull - steepening pattern. The market may further price in the remaining rate cuts this year, with the 2 - year US Treasury rate expected to fluctuate between 3.44% - 3.84% and the 10 - year rate between 3.9% - 4.3% [21]. - The US dollar index may remain weak, possibly falling below 96. The Fed's rate cuts, weak US economic data, and policy uncertainties contribute to this trend. The Fed's rate cuts are beneficial to China's external interest - rate environment, allowing for the possibility of aggregate monetary policies [23].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250918 9 月 FOMC：重启降息——2025 年 9 月 FOMC 会议点评 2025 年 09 月 18 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《特朗普干预美联储独立性的三个途 径》 2025-09-15 《供需分化的三个结果——8 月经济 数据点评》 2025-09-15 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：9 月 FOMC 如期降息 25bps，点阵图指引年内还有 2 次降 息，基本符合预期，但同时指引明年还有额外 1 次降息，相比市场预期 明显偏鹰。发布会上 Powell 对于就业和通胀的观点与 8 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [1][2] - The Fed's decision comes amid slowing economic activity, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation, with the committee acknowledging increased downside risks to employment [2][5] - The Fed's projections indicate a potential further reduction of 50 basis points by the end of the year, with an additional 25 basis points cut each year for the next two years [2] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, the U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 260.42 points (0.57%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices experienced slight declines [2] - The dollar index initially fell by 0.4% but later recovered to show a 0.3% increase after Powell's press conference emphasized inflation risks [3] - Analysts suggest that the Fed's rate cut could trigger a global wave of central bank rate cuts, potentially benefiting the Chinese stock market and leading to a second wave of upward momentum [5][6]

"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：当美联储周三降息时，表面上看这像是例行的货币政策操作。市场反应 较为平淡，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔也基本避免了因这一决定而引发的激烈分歧，尽管这一决定出现在前所 未有的政治对抗背景下。鲍威尔在周三降息中开启的政策转向，可能代表他最后一次努力证明——一个 独立的美国央行依然有能力在复杂的环境中引领经济，而不是在更符合特朗普总统优先事项的官员获得 更大控制权之前放弃独立性。鲍威尔的主席任期将在明年春季结束。在其任期内的第三次，鲍威尔尝试 着一个极其微妙的操作：降息并非因为衰退迫在眉睫，而是为了防止衰退发生。 ...

至 25% 经观财经热点 之间。这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时， 美联储能否维持其独立性再次引发外界担忧。 经济观察网 据央视新闻，当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点到 00% ...

当地时间17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是 美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。 消息一出，投资者开始评估美联储利率决定和预测，美股闻风而动。与此同时，美联储能否维持其独立性再次引发外界担忧。 9月17日，美联储主席鲍威尔在华盛顿出席记者会。新华社记者 胡友松 摄 就业增长放缓 风险平衡变化 美联储降息 美联储决策机构联邦公开市场委员会17日发布声明称，今年上半年美国经济活动增长有所放缓，就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升，通货膨胀率 上升并在一定程度上保持高位。委员会寻求长期实现就业最大化和2%的通货膨胀率。而经济前景的不确定性依然很高。委员会注意到了任务 所面临的风险，并判断就业的下行风险已经上升。为支持委员会达成目标，并考虑到风险平衡的转变，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下 调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。 报道称，近几周股市因预期美联储会降息而有所反弹，但结果仍不足以引发股市大幅波动。 摩根大通资产管理公司一位策略师表示，美国劳动力市场正在变得疲软，所以美联储认为降息是合适的 ...

来源：中国新闻网 报道称，鲍威尔试图避免卷入有关美联储的政治争议，他拒绝评论特朗普试图解雇美联储理事库克的事 情。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 当被问及白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰加入美联储，该机构如何能保持其在公众眼中的独立性 时，鲍威尔表示，美联储"坚定维护"其独立性。 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 编辑：万可义 鲍威尔：美联储将坚定维护自身独立性 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新网9月18日电 据美国彭博社报道，美联储主席鲍威尔当地时间17日在降息决议公布后举行的新闻发 布会上表示，美联储将坚决维护其独立性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024, amid a weakening job market and political pressures [1][4]. Summary by Sections Rate Cut Context - The rate cut comes against a backdrop of a softening job market and significant political turmoil, contrasting sharply with the previous year's more aggressive 50 basis point cut [4]. - The current economic environment is more complex, with rising unemployment and a slowdown in hiring, making the job market a primary concern for the Fed [4][8]. Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and dot plot indicate that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected this year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [6]. - Long-term interest rate expectations have been adjusted downward, with projections for 2026 and 2027 indicating rates around 3.50% to 3.75% and 3.25% to 3.50%, respectively [6][7]. Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more cautious approach [7][9]. - Powell emphasized that the decision for a 25 basis point cut was a consensus choice reflecting a gradual and controlled approach to monetary policy [7][9]. Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 50 basis point cut did not receive broad support, and the 25 basis point reduction was deemed appropriate for risk management [8][9]. - The focus has shifted towards balancing employment and inflation, indicating a potential acceleration in rate cuts if job data continues to deteriorate [8][12]. - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [8][12]. Overall Implications - The rate cut signals a cautious approach to monetary policy, balancing the need for economic support with the imperative to maintain the Fed's independence [12][14]. - The Fed's actions reflect a delicate balancing act between responding to economic pressures and resisting political interference, highlighting the ongoing challenges in maintaining policy credibility [14].

智通财经记者 陈良贤 王亚赛 实习生 沈佳欣 特朗普曾预计， 本周"会有一次大幅降息" 当地时间 9 月 17 日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点到 4.00% 至 4.25% 之间。 这是美联储自 2024 年 12 月以来首次降息。会后公布的决议声明中，美联储指出美国就业增长已放缓、失业率略升，删除了劳动力市场稳健的表述，降息 的决定是"鉴于风险平衡已转变"。 通过回溯过往半个世纪的美国经济衰退期会看到，美联储在这些时期无一例外都采取了降息手段。 不过，美联储的降息也不完全只在严重的经济衰退时才会出现。 从 70 年代的石油危机、80 年代的储贷危机、90 年代的海湾战争，再到 21 世纪的互联网泡沫危机、2008 年的全球金融危机、2020 年的新冠大流行——每 一次降息周期中，美联储在解决的都是美国的经济问题。 这就是为何很多人会将降息视为"美国经济出现困境的信号"。 除了纾困式降息，美联储也会在预防潜在金融风险时做出较为温和的降息行动，也就是预防式降息。例如 1995 年亚洲爆发金融危机，为了解决潜在的衰 退风险，美联储通过降息来刺激经济， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is seen as the beginning of a new monetary policy phase rather than an end to economic challenges, with implications for both the U.S. and Chinese markets [2][30]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut, which was largely anticipated by the market [11][13]. - Historical data shows that previous rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have often led to significant increases in the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating a potential positive impact on Chinese stock markets [10][12]. - The decision to cut rates reflects a balancing act between maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, with current economic indicators suggesting a focus on employment due to rising unemployment rates [14][16]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the U.S. dollar index saw a slight increase of 0.15%, while major stock indices experienced minor declines, indicating mixed market reactions [8]. - The rate cut is expected to have spillover effects on global financial markets, particularly influencing capital flows and exchange rates [9]. Group 3: Implications for China - The Federal Reserve's actions are likely to open up more monetary policy space for China, potentially leading to similar rate cuts by the People's Bank of China [35][37]. - Analysts suggest that the Chinese market may benefit from increased liquidity and a more favorable environment for equities and real estate as a result of the Fed's decision [36][47]. - The potential for a weaker U.S. dollar could also enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, providing a boost to exports [44]. Group 4: Economic Perspectives - Economists express concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence being challenged, which could undermine the credibility of the U.S. dollar and have broader implications for global markets [32][50]. - The ongoing political dynamics, particularly the influence of President Trump on the Federal Reserve, may complicate future monetary policy decisions [28][49].