Core Viewpoint - The competition for the next Federal Reserve Chair has intensified, with Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh emerging as the leading candidates, influenced by recent endorsements and market predictions [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates and Market Predictions - Kevin Warsh has gained significant traction, with prediction markets showing his chances at 48% on Kalshi and 49% on Polymarket, while Kevin Hassett's chances are at 41% and 43% respectively [1]. - Stephen Myrow, a partner at Beacon Policy Advisors, suggests that Warsh's chances may be overstated compared to Hassett, who is closer to Trump's inner circle [2]. Group 2: Concerns and Endorsements - Concerns have been raised about Hassett's suitability due to his overt support for Trump's policies, which could undermine the Federal Reserve's independence [1]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has publicly supported Warsh, adding weight to his candidacy [1]. Group 3: Background of Kevin Warsh - Kevin Warsh is a known critic of the Federal Reserve, having served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, and has held various roles in academia and investment [3]. - Warsh's advocacy for lower interest rates contrasts with his previous hawkish stance during his tenure at the Fed [3][4]. Group 4: Perspectives on Hassett - Hassett has countered concerns about being a "mouthpiece" for Trump, arguing that his leadership could differ from his past affiliations [5]. - E.J. Antoni from the Heritage Foundation believes that fears regarding Hassett's partisanship are exaggerated, emphasizing the historical context of the Fed's independence [5].

周二，亚太资产全线重挫，日韩股市连续走低。 截至发稿，韩国综合指数尾盘跌1.89%；日经225指数跌1.38%，再度跌破5万点；日本东证指数跌1.3% MSCI亚洲新兴市场跌1.69%，台湾加权指数跌幅扩大超1%。 港A股也遭受冲击。恒指、恒科指、国指午后跌幅进一步扩大，现跌幅均跌超2%。大型科技股、金融股悉数飘绿。 沪指、创业板指、深证成指纷纷跌超1%；富时中国A50指数期货跌幅也扩大至1.3%。 | ALADA | | 更新干:12-16 14:01 | | --- | --- | --- | | 日经225 | 韩国综合 | 新加坡海峡 | | 49477.67 | 4013.35 | 4582.82 | | -690.44 -1.38% | -77.24 -1.89% | -6.35 -0.14% | | 澳洲标普200 | 印度 | MSCI台湾 | | 8598.90 | 84755.69 | 1077.86 | | -48.40 -0.56% | -457.67 -0.54% -17.11 -1.56% | | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 恒生指数 | | 3825.34 | 12929.9 ...

打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 据知情人士透露，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特担任美联储主席的候选资格曾被市场视为几乎板 上钉钉，但现在却遭到一些与特朗普关系密切的高层人士的反对。 消息人士称，人们担心哈塞特与总统关系过于密切，而讽刺的是，正是这一点最初让他成为接替鲍威尔 的热门人选。 截至周一，哈塞特在预测市场Kalshi上仍是热门人选，胜算为51%，但已从本月初超过80%的高点下 滑。沃什的胜算目前为44%，较12月初的约11%显着上升。 消息人士称，哈塞特的候选资格遭遇更多阻力，人们越来越担心，如果债券市场认为他过于听从特朗 普，可能会引发市场动荡。这种看法最终可能会产生与特朗普预期相反的效果，长期收益率最终可能会 上升。或许是为了回应这些批评，哈塞特在上周接受采访时对美联储独立性问题表态更为坚定。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银目前走势高位回落，布林带向下开口，表明空头趋势占主导，短期呈下行趋势，沪银溢价收敛至 300元/克，沪银情绪降温。高位银价将继续震荡，沪银主力合约参考运行区间14200-15000。 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于14534一线上方，今日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidacy of Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman, highlighting the shift in market sentiment and the implications of his policy proposals, particularly the combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction [1][2][3]. Group 1: Candidate Dynamics - Kevin Hassett, initially seen as a frontrunner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position, faces resistance from Trump's allies, leading to a decline in his market odds from over 80% to 51% [2]. - Kevin Warsh's odds have significantly increased from approximately 11% to 44% following Trump's endorsement [2]. Group 2: Policy Proposals - Deutsche Bank's analysis indicates that if Warsh is elected, he would advocate for a unique policy approach of "simultaneous rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" [3][4]. - The feasibility of this approach hinges on regulatory reforms that would lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [4]. Group 3: Warsh's Background and Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh, a lawyer with extensive experience in both public and private sectors, served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [6][7]. - He has been a vocal critic of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [8][12]. Group 4: Recent Policy Outlook - Despite advocating for lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank suggests that Warsh is not structurally dovish, having previously held more hawkish views during his tenure at the Fed [22][23]. - Warsh's recent statements indicate a potential support for lowering policy rates, but this may come at the cost of reducing the Fed's balance sheet size, contingent on regulatory reforms [24][25]. Group 5: Market Implications - The article emphasizes that regardless of who is chosen as the next Fed Chairman, the market will likely test the new leader's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [26]. - Investors should prepare for a gradual policy adjustment process rather than an immediate shift in Fed policy following the new Chairman's appointment [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of Kevin Warsh's candidacy for the Federal Reserve Chair, highlighting his unique policy stance of "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" and the challenges this poses in the current regulatory environment [1][6][22]. Group 1: Warsh's Candidacy and Policy Stance - Warsh is seen as a leading candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair, alongside Kevin Hassett, amid concerns about Hassett's close ties to President Trump [3][5]. - Deutsche Bank analyzes that if Warsh is elected, he would support interest rate cuts while also advocating for a reduction in the balance sheet [6][22]. - The feasibility of implementing "parallel rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" hinges on regulatory reforms that lower banks' reserve requirements, which is currently uncertain [7][25]. Group 2: Warsh's Background and Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh has a legal background and extensive experience in both public and private sectors, having served as a Federal Reserve Governor from 2006 to 2011 during the global financial crisis [9][10]. - He has been critical of the Fed's aggressive balance sheet policies over the past 15 years, arguing that quantitative easing (QE) has deviated from the central bank's core responsibilities [11][15]. - Warsh believes that continued QE could lead to inflation and financial stability risks, and he has expressed concerns about the Fed's involvement in fiscal policy matters [15][16]. Group 3: Future Policy Implications - Despite advocating for lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank notes that Warsh is structurally not dovish, particularly regarding balance sheet issues [22]. - The article suggests that the new Fed Chair will face pressure to maintain independence amid Trump's calls for significant rate cuts, which may complicate the credibility of their policy commitments [8][26]. - Investors should prepare for a gradual policy adjustment process rather than an immediate shift in Fed policy following the new Chair's appointment [27][28].

Group 1 - The current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end in May next year [1] - President Trump has two candidates named Kevin in mind for the next Federal Reserve Chairman [3][5] - Trump expects the next Chairman to collaborate with him on interest rate issues, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [10][12] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve, as the central bank of the United States, operates independently from the federal government [13][16] - The process for appointing the Federal Reserve Chairman involves nomination by the President and confirmation by the Senate [20][23] - The current Chairman, Powell, was nominated by Trump in 2017 and was reappointed in 2022, with his second term ending in May 2026 [25][26] Group 3 - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell's lack of aggressive interest rate cuts and has threatened to dismiss him [27][29] - Loyalty and willingness to cut rates are key criteria for selecting the next Chairman [29] - The potential appointment of a "shadow chairman" could undermine Powell's authority during the transition period [31] Group 4 - Historically, the Federal Reserve has claimed independence, but this has been compromised at times, as seen with former Chairman Burns in the 1970s [36][38]

特朗普曾告诉记者他已有人选，但在上周五接受《华尔街日报》采访时，他表示前美联储理事凯文·沃 什已与哈塞特并列成为美联储候选人名单的榜首，这令投资者大感意外。这番言论导致哈塞特在预测市 场上的胜率直线跳水。 特朗普当时说，"我认为这两位凯文都很棒。" 周一，在预测市场上，哈塞特仍然是热门人选，胜率为51%，尽管这一数字已从本月早些时候超过80% 的高点回落。沃什的胜率目前为44%，较12月初的约11%有所上升。 据知情人士透露，凯文·哈塞特竞选美联储主席一事曾被市场视为板上钉钉，但如今却遭到了一些能跟 美国总统特朗普说得上话的高层人士的阻力。 但据多位消息人士透露，随着12月的推进，哈塞特的竞选遭遇了一些阻力。人们越来越担心，如果债券 市场认为他过于听命于特朗普，可能会在未来发起反抗。这种看法最终可能会产生与特朗普预期相反的 效果：由于担心哈塞特在未来通胀反弹时无法采取足够措施来遏制通胀，长期收益率最终可能会上升。 消息人士称，人们担心这位国家经济委员会主任与总统关系过密，具有讽刺意味的是，这正是他最初成 为接替现任主席鲍威尔领跑者的原因。这种阻力或许解释了为何候选人面试在12月初被取消，随后又被 重新安排在上 ...

最新消息显示，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特（Kevin Hassett）竞逐美联储主席一职的提名，正遭到一些与特朗普关 系密切的高层人士的阻力。 消息人士最新表示，哈西特原本已经是下任美联储主席的头号候选人，但有人担心哈西特与特朗普关系过于密切——讽刺的 是，正是这一点最初让他成为接替鲍威尔的头号热门人选。 这种阻力，或许可以解释为何原定于12月初进行的候选人面试被取消；而在上周，特朗普政府又重新为美联储前理事凯文·沃 什（Kevin Warsh）安排了面试。 沃什目前是斯坦福大学访问学者，他于2006年至2011年期间担任美联储理事。2017年，特朗普曾就美联储主席一职面试沃 什，但最终选择了鲍威尔。 上周，特朗普当天在接受采访时说，沃什位列他心目中的名单前列，"沃什和哈西特两人都不错"。这番表态导致预测市场 Kalshi上押注哈西特胜出的概率大幅下滑。 尽管如此，截至周一，哈西特在Kalshi上仍以51%的概率领先，但已明显低于本月早些时候超过80%的高点；沃什的概率目前 约为41%，12月初时仅在11%左右。 知情人士称，这种"阻力"更多体现为对沃什的积极推举，而非直接批评哈西特。 上周四，在摩根 ...

据 CNBC，原本被市场视为美联储主席热门人选的美国国家经济委员会主任 Kevin Hassett，近期在接近 特朗普的高层人士中遭遇阻力。知情人士称，相关担忧主要集中在 Hassett 与总统关系过于密切，可能 削弱外界对美联储独立性的信心；这也被认为是 12 月初部分候选人面试被取消、随后仅 Kevin Warsh 的面谈得以重新安排的原因之一。 （来源：吴说） 来源：市场资讯 ...

在预测市场Kalshi上，哈塞特周一仍以51%的概率位居首位，但已明显低于本月早些时候超过80%的高 点；沃什的胜算则升至 44%，较12月初约11%的水平大幅上升。 知情人士指出，这一轮"阻力"更多体现在抬高沃什的声量，而非直接批评哈塞特。上周四在摩根大通的 一场活动上，摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙对两位候选人均给予正面评价，但其部分表态被在场人士解读为 更偏向支持沃什。 智通财经APP获悉，周一，多位知情人士透露，原本被市场视为"几乎板上钉钉"的候选人，白宫国家经 济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)，近期在高层圈子内遭遇一定阻力，而这些人士与美国总统特 朗普关系密切。 知情人士称，部分反对声音担忧，哈塞特与特朗普的关系过于密切。讽刺的是，正是这种"贴近总统"的 特质，最初让他成为接替现任美联储主席鲍威尔的热门人选。这种分歧也被认为可以解释，为何原定于 12月初进行的候选人面试一度被取消，并在随后重新安排，至少前美联储理事凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh) 的面试已于上周恢复进行。 上周五，特朗普在接受采访时表示，前美联储理事沃什已与哈塞特一道，跻身美联储主席候选人名单的 最前列。这一表态令 ...