哈塞特势头不稳，特朗普亲信推举沃什当美联储主席。德银分析沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 华尔街见闻提及，当地时间周一，据媒体援引知情人士透露，曾被市场视为几乎板上钉钉的美联储主席候选人凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），正遭遇特朗普 亲信的阻力。 外界担忧这位国家经济委员会主任与特朗普的关系过于密切。上周五特朗普称，前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）已与凯文·哈塞特并列，成为美联储主 席候选名单中的领先人选。他表示： 我认为这两位凯文都很棒。 特朗普的上述表态导致预测市场Kalshi上哈塞特的胜算大幅下滑。尽管仍是最被看好的候选人，胜率为51%，但已明显低于本月早些时候超过80%的高点。沃 什目前的胜率为44%，而12月初时仅约11%。 12月15日，追风交易台消息，德意志银行的Matthew Luzzetti团队发表研报，深度解析了沃什的政策主张。 研报分析若沃什当选，他将支持降息但同时会要求 缩减资产负债表。 研报指出，"降息与缩表并行"的前提是监管改革降低银行的储备金需求，短期内可行性存疑 。 德银认为，市场需要密切关注新任主席能否在特朗普要 ...

尽管沃什最近主张降低利率，但他在资产负债表问题上更偏鹰派。不过德银认为"降息与缩表并行"实施前提是监管改革降低银行的储备金需求，短期内 可行性存疑。市场需要密切关注新任主席能否在特朗普要求大幅降息的压力下保持独立性，以及其政策信誉的建立过程。 哈塞特势头不稳，特朗普亲信推举沃什当美联储主席。德银分析沃什若当选美联储主席，其政策主张可能呈现"降息与缩表并行"的独特组合。 华尔街见闻提及，当地时间周一，据媒体援引知情人士透露，曾被市场视为几乎板上钉钉的美联储主席候选人凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett），正遭遇 特朗普亲信的阻力。 外界担忧这位国家经济委员会主任与特朗普的关系过于密切。上周五特朗普称，前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）已与凯文·哈塞特并列，成为 美联储主席候选名单中的领先人选。他表示： 我认为这两位凯文都很棒。 特朗普的上述表态导致预测市场Kalshi上哈塞特的胜算大幅下滑。尽管仍是最被看好的候选人，胜率为51%，但已明显低于本月早些时候超过80%的高 点。沃什目前的胜率为44%，而12月初时仅约11%。 12月15日，德意志银行的Matthew Luzzetti团队发表研报， ...

Core Viewpoint - Barclays economists indicate a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve during the meeting on December 9-10, with market pricing showing over 80% probability for this cut [1] Group 1: Rate Cut Expectations - The expectation is that Jerome Powell will support the rate cut, joining a group that includes Waller, Bowman, Williams, Jefferson, Cook, and Barr [1] - There is anticipated internal dissent, with at least two hawkish votes against from Schmid and Musalem, and one potential dissenting vote from Goolsbee or Collins [1] - Milan may also vote against the cut, advocating for a larger reduction [1] Group 2: Future Guidance - Barclays expects the Fed's statement and Powell's press conference to have a slightly hawkish tone, suggesting a likely pause in January unless labor market conditions worsen beyond expectations [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is at a critical turning point in monetary policy, with the market eagerly seeking forward guidance from Chairman Powell's upcoming speech [1][2] - Powell's remarks will provide insights into the Fed's views on inflation, economic growth, and future policy directions, making it a significant communication event [1][2] - The market is particularly interested in whether the Fed believes it has "won" the battle against inflation and the specific conditions that would trigger a rate cut [2] Group 2 - The current economic landscape shows resilient growth and employment, but inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, creating a core dilemma for policymakers [2] - Powell's speech will be analyzed for its implications on market expectations, with hawkish comments potentially dampening hopes for rate cuts, while dovish remarks could bolster those expectations [2] - The audience at the banking conference will likely influence the focus of Powell's speech, potentially emphasizing financial stability and the health of the banking system, which are closely tied to monetary policy decisions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing challenges with inflation becoming more volatile due to factors such as artificial intelligence and demographic changes [1] Summary by Categories Inflation Expectations - Inflation expectations are well-anchored, indicating a stable outlook despite potential volatility [1] Forward Guidance - The ECB must adopt a more flexible approach when utilizing forward guidance in its monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The lack of forward guidance from the Bank of England is causing the market to closely scrutinize details to assess the timing of potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The past month has been particularly poor for the UK, with various indicators underperforming expectations [1] - Inflation has come in slightly below expectations, and economic growth remains weak [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The yield curve has shown little change, as it largely reflects market expectations of maintaining interest rates at one meeting and a potential cut at the next [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reiterated its commitment to closely monitor economic data, indicating that there are no significant new insights in the forward guidance provided [1] Group 1 - The FOMC's decision reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, emphasizing the importance of data in future rate decisions [1] - Analysts noted that the forward guidance remains largely unchanged, suggesting stability in the Fed's outlook [1] - The focus on data indicates that future rate adjustments will be contingent on economic performance metrics [1]