时隔一年，美联储开启降息周期，美元开始走弱，美元指数已经出现连续的下调。9月16日， 美元指数跳水， 美元指数跌穿97点，创7月7日以来的新低。 与此同时，9月17日，人民币对美元中间价报7.1013，上调14点，人民币对美元中间价连续两 个交易日呈现升值走势。9月17日，在岸人民币对美元、离岸人民币对美元短线拉升，离岸人 民币盘中一度突破7.10关口，达到1美元兑7.09756（截至北京时间18点20分），续创2024年11 月以来升值高点。有分析认为， 后续人民币会继续升值，未来突破7的可能性极大。 美元疲软年内下跌11% 一年前，2024年9月，美联储启动了四年多来的首次降息，但在降息100个基点后便止步不 前。本次市场押注美联储重启降息，此预期已基本被市场消化，市场更关注的是降息的节奏和 时机。 摩根士丹利认为在通胀和就业数据走软的背景下，美联储将加快降息步伐，通过连续四次降 息，在明年初迅速将政策利率推向中性水平。 摩根士丹利经济学家Michael Gapen等人在上周五发布的一份报告中指出，他们现在预计美联 储将在9月、10月、12月和明年1月连续四次会议上分别降息25个基点。这与该行此前预测的 ...

交易员对美联储降息的押注愈发激进。 目前华尔街分析师普遍认为美联储今晚大幅降息50个基点的概率很小。号称"美联储传声筒"的Nick Timiraos最新撰文 称，预计美联储将在当地时间周三会议结束时宣布降息25个基点，原因是近期就业增长放缓。Timiraos表示，这次美联 储议息会议发生在一个不同寻常的政治时刻，使其成为近年来最奇特的一次议息会议。 最激进的押注：降息50基点 在美联储宣布利率决议前夕，利率市场交易员正在加大押注，预计美联储将在今年剩余的三次政策会议上至少实施一次 50个基点的大幅降息。其中，最激进的押注是，今晚美联储就会降息50个基点。 据最新消息，利率市场交易员正在加大对美联储降息的押注，预计美联储将在今年剩余的三次政策会议上至少实施一次 50个基点的大幅降息。甚至有"神秘交易员"押注美联储今晚的利率决议将出现大幅降息50个基点的意外事件。 北京时间9月18日凌晨2点，美联储或将宣布2025年首次降息决定，目前市场普遍认为最可能出现的情况是降息25个基 点。 但受美国劳动力市场超预期降温影响，部分交易员试图对冲经济前景恶化引发更大幅度降息的风险。 在芝商所(CME)的联邦基金期货市场上，有 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut in response to the recent slowdown in the job market [2][3] - The meeting occurs at a politically sensitive time, with the Trump administration exerting pressure on the Fed to lower rates and attempting to influence its board composition [2][3] - There is internal disagreement within the Fed regarding the focus on employment weakness over persistent inflation, with some officials questioning the justification for a rate cut given the current unemployment rate of 4.3% and inflation above the 2% target [3] Group 2 - Recent employment data shows a significant decline in non-farm payroll growth, averaging only 29,000 over the past three months, indicating a clear slowdown in the labor market [3] - The Fed faces challenges in determining the neutral interest rate, currently at 4.3%, with estimates for the neutral rate being adjusted upwards, suggesting the need for several more rate cuts to reach a neutral stance [3] - The quarterly economic projections and dot plot regarding the number of expected rate cuts for the year will be closely monitored by the market, with potential adjustments from two to three cuts [3][4] Group 3 - The upcoming meeting represents a critical decision point for the Fed regarding its independence, political pressures, and economic judgments, with implications for both the U.S. and global economies [4]

美联储会释放哪些新信号 美联储即将重启降息之际，点阵图和经济预测成为市场关注焦点。在法国里昂商学院管理实践教授李徽 徽看来，研究点阵图可以关注三件事。 编者按： 全球市场迎来"超级央行周"，市场普遍预期美联储即将开启降息周期，搅动着金融市场的神经。美东时 间9月15日，美股三大指数齐涨，标普500与纳指创历史新高。16日，国际金价也一路狂飙。在通胀升温 和就业疲软的双重夹击下，外界普遍预计，美联储即将重启降息进程。未来的宽松路径将怎么走？谁在 主宰利率决策？这轮降息能走多远？这场降息博弈，又将如何重塑全球资本流向与资产定价逻辑？ 在市场普遍预期美联储即将重启降息之际，美国东部时间9月15日，美股三大指数全线上涨，标普500指 数和纳指创下历史新高。 2024年9月美联储开启了降息周期，并在去年最后三次利率会议上累计降息了100个基点，联邦基金利率 目标区间被下调至4.25%—4.50%。迈进2025年，美联储已连续五次在利率会议上按兵不动。 美联储重启降息的号角即将吹响。美国东部时间9月17日，美联储将公布利率会议，市场普遍预计至少 会降息25个基点，甚至不排除降息50个基点的可能。 需要警惕的是，在美联储内 ...

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock indicates that the rise in global government bond yields reflects expectations of sustained high interest rates rather than concerns over an impending fiscal crisis [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Long-term sovereign bond yields have surged significantly this year across major economies, leading to the steepest yield curves in years [1] - The widening gap between 5-year and 30-year bond yields suggests a shift in market dynamics [3] - The current neutral interest rate is believed to be above historical levels, influenced by loose fiscal policies and high investment spending, particularly in the AI sector [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns over fiscal situations, investor demand remains strong, as evidenced by new bond issues receiving billions in subscriptions [3] - France's recent bond auction demonstrated robust demand, even amid political challenges, with its 10-year bond yield premium over German bonds decreasing from a recent high [3][4] - Market movements indicate that investors expect France to eventually resolve its budgetary issues [4] Group 3: Long-term Bond Outlook - The re-pricing of long-term bonds is occurring across major government bond markets, with the pressure on long-term bonds likely to persist [4] - The company expresses limited willingness to allocate to long-term bonds in regions including the UK [4]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley significantly adjusts its interest rate forecast for the Federal Reserve, expecting a faster pace of rate cuts in response to soft inflation and employment data [1][2] - The new prediction includes four consecutive rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, December, and January, totaling a 100 basis point reduction [1][2] - If this forecast is realized, the target range for the federal funds rate will reach approximately 3.375% by January, aligning with the upper limit of the long-term neutral rate estimated by most Federal Reserve officials [1][2] Group 2 - After the "four consecutive cuts," Morgan Stanley anticipates the Federal Reserve will pause to assess data and its distance from the neutral rate [2] - The firm believes that the ultimate federal funds rate will reach 2.875%, indicating that the current rate is already close to the neutral rate by about 100 basis points [2] - The report suggests that while a 75 basis point cut this year or a one-time 50 basis point cut this month is technically feasible, the downward adjustment will primarily consist of coherent 25 basis point cuts to "more decisively return to neutral" [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts during the monetary policy meeting on September 16-17 [1] - Daleep Singh from PGIM indicates that the Fed's interest rate policy aims to approach the estimated neutral policy rate, but the specific steps to achieve this remain uncertain [1] - The market's expectation of rate cuts is helping to alleviate investor concerns regarding the volatility of fixed income assets, such as long-term bonds [1][2] Group 2 - The inflation rate is projected to remain above 3% until 2026, leading the Fed to adopt a gradual approach of 25 basis point cuts until reaching the estimated neutral rate of 3.0% to 3.5% [1] - This gradual strategy allows the Fed ample time to assess the impact of tariff policies on inflation and labor supply, as well as the subsequent effects of fiscal policy [1] - The August non-farm payroll report shows positive signals, with a moderate impact on the interest rate market and a more significant boost to risk assets like stocks and corporate bonds [2]

Group 1: Reasons for Rising Japanese Bond Yields - The 10-year Japanese bond yield has reached a new high of 1.63%, the highest since 2008, driven by multiple factors including weak bond auction results and reduced demand from life insurance companies[6][7]. - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 20-year bond auction on May 20 was 2.50, significantly lower than the previous auction's 2.96, indicating waning investor interest[11]. - Japanese life insurance companies, holding 17% of government bonds, are reducing long-term bond allocations due to substantial unrealized losses, with one major insurer reporting a loss of 3.6 trillion yen in FY2024[13]. - Political instability following the ruling party's loss in the July 20 elections has exacerbated bond sell-offs, leading to increased market uncertainty[17]. Group 2: Outlook and Risks - The Japanese bond yield is expected to continue rising over the next six months to a year, primarily driven by domestic inflation and interest rate hike expectations, with potential increases of over 50 basis points if the policy rate reaches 1%[30][36]. - The Japanese government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain high at 237%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability amid rising interest rates[27]. - Risks include a potential debt spiral as rising yields increase debt servicing costs, and the possibility of a "carry trade" unwind, which could lead to market volatility[6][30]. Group 3: Opportunities in Japanese Bonds - The attractiveness of Japanese bonds is increasing as yields rise, making them a viable investment option amid a backdrop of improving economic fundamentals and fiscal outlook[6][30]. - Japan's economy is on a path to recovery, with stable employment and a positive inflation outlook, which supports the long-term investment case for Japanese bonds[6][30]. - Global diversification needs are rising, positioning Japan's bond market as an attractive alternative for investors seeking options beyond the U.S. and European markets[6][30].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is considering starting interest rate cuts in the upcoming meetings, with multiple cuts expected in the next three to six months based on economic developments [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The call for rate cuts comes amid concerns over economic impacts from tariffs and signs of a weakening labor market, with recent data indicating a sharp slowdown in job growth [2][5]. - Inflation remains a concern, particularly with rising service sector prices keeping overall inflation above the Fed's 2% target [5]. Group 2: Rate Cut Strategy - The pace and magnitude of rate cuts will depend on incoming economic data, with the current policy rate still above the neutral rate that neither stimulates nor suppresses the economy [4]. - The Fed aims to approach the neutral rate, estimating potential cuts of around 100 to 150 basis points, but the speed of achieving this will be data-dependent [4]. Group 3: Leadership Insights - Waller has been a long-time advocate for rate cuts, previously dissenting against the decision to maintain rates in July, favoring a 25 basis point cut [6]. - He has commented on the potential for leadership changes within the Fed, indicating past discussions with Treasury Secretary Yellen but no current interviews for the Fed Chair position [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is likely to initiate interest rate cuts in the upcoming meeting, with a potential for multiple cuts over the next three to six months [1][8] - The direction of monetary policy is aimed at moving towards a neutral interest rate, which may require a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points [9][10] - The internal consensus within the Federal Reserve is strengthening, with key figures like Powell and Waller aligning on the need for rate cuts [10] Economic Conditions - The labor market is showing signs of significant cooling, with recent data indicating a slowdown in job growth, raising concerns about rising unemployment [5][10] - Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's 2% target, particularly driven by rising service sector prices, complicating the monetary policy landscape [3][5] - Waller believes that concerns about inflation from tariffs are short-term and expects inflation to return to the target within six to seven months [5] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's approach will be data-dependent, with the pace and magnitude of rate cuts contingent on upcoming economic indicators [8][10] - The overall monetary policy is expected to transition into a relatively accommodative phase in the coming months, prioritizing economic stability over immediate inflation concerns [10]