Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, questions the Federal Reserve's judgment on interest rates, suggesting that the two-year U.S. Treasury yield indicates that the benchmark rate is too high [1] - Becerra emphasizes that the current actual interest rates are very high when adjusted for inflation, and he suggests that if the Fed does not lower rates, the potential cut in September could be larger [1] - The futures market indicates that traders expect the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in the September meeting, while no changes are anticipated in July [1] Group 2 - Becerra refrains from commenting on calls for Fed Chair Powell's resignation but suggests that the Fed should manage its spending like other agencies [2] - He hints at the possibility of Powell leaving the Fed after his term ends in May 2026, despite Powell's term as a governor lasting until 2028 [2] - Becerra notes a divergence in expectations among Fed policymakers based on their appointing authority, indicating a split between Trump-appointed officials and others [2] Group 3 - Becerra highlights that the upcoming legislation includes an increase in the federal debt ceiling, which he believes will support the government until 2027 [3] - The Treasury has been using special accounting measures to meet federal payment obligations without exceeding the debt limit, and plans to increase short-term Treasury sales once the legislation is signed [3] - He mentions that the debt management process is orderly, but acknowledges that the two-year Treasury yield will be considered in their strategies [3] Group 4 - Becerra states that decisions regarding debt maturity arrangements will be made in the coming months, with the next quarterly refinancing announcement expected on July 30 [4] - He avoids commenting on the White House economic advisor's claim that Trump policies will reduce the fiscal deficit by $11 trillion over the next decade, citing the difficulty of predicting long-term borrowing scenarios [4]

Core Viewpoint - A majority of economists expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to maintain the interest rate at 3.25% on July 9, with a forecasted reduction to 3.00% in the third quarter [1] Group 1 - Out of 27 economists surveyed, 19 believe the interest rate will remain at 3.25% [1] - Among 22 economists, 16 anticipate a decrease in the interest rate to 3.00% in the third quarter [1] - The median forecast for the year-end interest rate is 3.00%, an increase from the previous survey's prediction of 2.75% [1]

Employment Situation - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a job gain of +147K for June, exceeding the consensus estimate of +110K and the revised +144K for May [1][2] - The Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.1%, indicating a healthy labor market [1][2] Job Revisions - Revisions for the previous two months showed an increase, with May's job gain revised from +139K to +144K and April's from +147K to +158K, totaling an additional +16K jobs over the past two months [3] Sector Analysis - The Government sector contributed +73K jobs, while the Federal Government saw a loss of -7K jobs [4] - The Healthcare sector added +39K jobs, and Social Assistance added +19K jobs, while traditional sectors like Leisure & Hospitality and Trade/Transportation/Utilities were absent from the report [5] Interest Rate Implications - The strong jobs report may reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, potentially delaying cuts until September [6] Jobless Claims - Initial Jobless Claims decreased to 233K from a revised 237K, which is below the expected 240K, indicating a moderation in the labor market narrative [7] - Continuing Claims remained stable at 1.964 million, suggesting that the labor market has not yet reached a critical threshold that would indicate weakness [8] Trade Balance - The U.S. Trade Deficit for May was reported at -$71.5 billion, an improvement from the March record low of -$138 billion, with April's deficit revised to -$60.3 billion [9] Market Expectations - Analysts anticipate a rebound in Factory Orders for May and mixed results for Services PMI, with both metrics expected to remain above the growth threshold of 50 [10][11]

Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's claims about the success of his administration's economic policies and legislative achievements, particularly emphasizing the "big and beautiful" plan [1] - It highlights the potential impact of the upcoming ADP employment data on market sentiment and Trump's likely reaction, which may involve blaming the Federal Reserve for any negative economic indicators [2] - The article notes that while the bond market is slowly aligning with Trump's views on interest rates, there is still no significant panic or deep concern reflected in current bond yields [2] Group 2 - Critics argue that the high interest rates are not solely the fault of the Federal Reserve but also due to the additional debt incurred by Trump and Congressional Republicans, which adds to the national debt burden [3] - Trump's public relations strategy has been effective in shifting blame for economic downturns to the Federal Reserve, despite the economy not showing signs of collapse yet [3] - The article warns that if the economy falters, Trump's exaggerated claims may backfire, leading to increased pressure on the dollar and bond markets, potentially resulting in higher long-term bond yields [3]

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月3日） 其它： 3. 韩国总统李在明：无法确定是否能在7月8日前完成与美国的关税谈判。双方在谈判中并不真正清楚各 自的具体诉求。 美元： 5. 特朗普称鲍威尔应立即辞职，并援引美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）署长有关国会应调查鲍威尔的报 道。 6. 路透调查：52位策略师中有42位表示，到7月底美元仓位预计将保持稳定，或净空头将增加。 主要非美货币： 1. 路透调查：预计欧元兑美元六个月后为1.18，一年后为1.20（6月调查时分别为1.15和1.18）。 6. 日本央行审议委员高田创：如果能够确认企业的积极行为得以持续，日本央行应继续进一步调整货币 宽松程度。 4. 路透调查：11位经济学家中有10位预计以色列央行将在周一维持基准利率在4.5%不变，其中一位预 期将降息25个基点至4.25%。 欧元/美元 1. ADP就业人数两年多来首次"转负"，利率期货几乎完全定价美联储9月降息。 2. 贝森特：美联储可能在9月或更早降息。 3. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 4. 美国联邦住房金融署（FHFA）呼吁国会调查美联储主席鲍威尔。 2. 英国首相斯塔默：里 ...

Core Viewpoint - Switzerland's inflation rate has increased in June but remains close to deflation levels, indicating a potential for the Swiss National Bank to lower interest rates below zero later this year [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - The annual inflation rate in Switzerland for June rose by 0.1% compared to the same month last year, while the inflation rate for May was -0.1% [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects this slight increase, suggesting a modest recovery in price levels [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - The Swiss National Bank lowered the benchmark interest rate to zero last month to curb demand for the Swiss franc [1] - The rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc has negatively impacted demand for Swiss exports, including luxury watches and pharmaceuticals [1] Group 3: Currency Impact - Since the beginning of the year, the Swiss franc has appreciated nearly 15% against the US dollar, leading to lower prices for imported goods and services [1] - This currency strength has contributed to a downward spiral in inflation rates within Switzerland [1]

建筑翻修费用遭质疑 特朗普开辟"新战线"？ 当地时间周三，联邦住房金融局局长（FHFA）普尔特（William Pulte）声称，美联储主席鲍威尔在描 述美联储总部建筑翻修时撒谎，要求开启调查。 在美国总统特朗普频频施压美联储降息的背景下，这一要求似乎并没有表面上那么简单。 考虑到普尔特是在本届政府任内获得提名，他的观点立场与特朗普往往保持一致。 例如，FHFA近日发布一项具有里程碑意义的指令，要求政府支持企业(GSE)房利美和房地美正式将加 密货币纳入单户抵押贷款风险评估框架。这标志着加密货币首次被纳入美国住房金融体系的核心领域， 呼应了特朗普总统提出的"让美国成为世界加密货币之都"的战略愿景。 5月以来，普尔特在各种场合抱怨高借贷成本正在损害住房市场，抨击美联储不愿降息。"真的够了，适 可而止吧！美联储需要降低利率。如果鲍威尔这样做，房地产市场的状况会好得多。" 作为美国住房监管机构掌门人，直接与另一个联邦机构主管"短兵相接"让外界颇感意外。目前，两人都 是美国金融稳定监督委员会的成员，该委员会旨在监管金融体系的风险。 普尔特周三敦促国会调查鲍威尔所谓的"政治偏见"以及他最近在参议院就美联储总部翻修一事的 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，澳新银行指出，欧洲央行在过去12个月里降息200个基点，在宽松周期中取得了很 大进展，该行可能已经接近利率低谷。我们预计欧洲央行9月份将再降息25个基点至1.75%。欧洲央行 行长拉加德称，货币政策处于良好状态，并没有走在预设的路线上。根据我们的测算，欧洲央行政策利 率的当前中性区间为1.50%-2.50%。目前2.0%的存款利率正处于该区间中值。我们预计欧元区未来几个 季度增长乏力，欧洲央行将保持宽松政策倾向。 澳新银行：欧洲央行或已接近利率低谷，预计9月将再降息25个基点 ...

1. 韩国央行行长李昌镛：仍继续处于宽松周期中。在决定是否进一步降息时，将密切关注金融稳定风 险。 1. 鲍威尔：无法断言7月降息是否过早 不排除任何一次会议。 2. 特朗普：不考虑延长关税谈判最后期限 可能提高日本关税。 3. "美联储传声筒"：鲍威尔保持灵活性 降息决策因素发生转变。 4. 美国5月JOLTs职位空缺意外升至去年11月以来最高。 5. 美国财政部长贝森特：相信美联储会在秋季之前降息，但最迟在9月份肯定会降息。 6. 特朗普税收法案在参议院通过。美国众议院定于当地时间周三就法案进行辩论并投票。 1. 日本央行行长植田和男：当前利率低于中性水平。任何加息措施都将取决于通胀动态的三个要素。 2. 欧洲央行行长拉加德：并未宣告任务完成，但目标已达到。必须保持对通胀的高度警惕。 3. 英国央行行长贝利：利率的走向仍然呈现下行趋势。终端利率的水平存在巨大的不确定性。 4. 欧洲央行副行长金多斯：欧元兑美元汇率在1.17是完全可以接受的，即便是升至1.20，也在可容忍范 围内。但如果进一步超过1.20，情况可能会变得较为复杂。 5. 欧洲央行管委卡扎克斯：欧元进一步大幅上涨可能会增加再次降息的理由。 6 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a comprehensive tax and spending bill with a vote of 51 to 50, highlighting significant partisan divisions [3][4] - Three Republican senators voted against the bill, which was ultimately passed by Vice President Vance's tie-breaking vote [3][4] - The House Speaker, Mike Johnson, aims to pass the bill before the July 4 deadline set by Trump [5] Group 2 - Elon Musk criticized the "big and beautiful" bill, threatening to establish a new political party if it passes, claiming it represents a single-party system [6][9] - Musk's criticism is partly due to the bill's proposal to eliminate tax credits for electric vehicles, which could significantly impact Tesla's sales and revenue [12][17] - The bill is expected to increase federal debt significantly, with estimates suggesting an average annual increase of $55 billion in debt interest payments over the next decade [18] Group 3 - The bill disproportionately benefits the wealthiest 1% while cutting social welfare programs for low-income families, leading to a projected income decrease of nearly 4% for the poorest households [21] - Trump's pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to 1% is seen as an attempt to alleviate the government's debt burden and shift responsibility for economic issues onto the Fed [20][31]