2025 年 12 月 15 日 铜：长期驱动逻辑仍存，价格回落有限 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 94,080 | 2.03% | 91550 | -2.69% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 11,553 | -2.37% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 415,607 | 74,444 | 646,913 | 15,720 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 41,547 | 12,987 | 348,000 | 3,298 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 32,563 | 1,102 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 165,900 | 50 | 39.78% | -0.40% | | | ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Perspective on Inbound Consumption - Inbound consumption has been growing rapidly, with inbound tourists reaching 131.9 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, and total spending of $94.2 billion, up 77.8% [1] - The proportion of inbound consumption to GDP in China is approximately 0.5%, compared to 1% to 3% in major countries, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing the inbound consumption environment, as highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan, which aims to cultivate international consumption centers and improve the convenience of inbound tourism [2] Group 2: Advantages and Challenges of Inbound Consumption - China possesses rich natural and historical resources, with 60 UNESCO World Heritage sites, and a robust manufacturing sector that offers diverse products at competitive prices [2] - The supply capacity of tourism infrastructure is currently insufficient, which may constrain the overall experience for inbound tourists [3] - The government is working on optimizing tourism public service systems to match the high-quality development of the tourism industry [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Financial Environment - The U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate, impacting global markets, with tech stocks experiencing volatility while cyclical and financial sectors show gains [4] - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed performance, with a notable increase in the computing power chain, while the overall trading volume has decreased [9] - The liquidity in the market remains loose, with overnight funding rates hitting new lows, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [22][23] Group 4: Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for a more proactive fiscal policy, aiming to stabilize investment growth and optimize the use of special bonds [25][26] - The government is focusing on enhancing financial support for the real economy, with an emphasis on maintaining low financing costs and improving the efficiency of monetary policy tools [22][23] - The upcoming policies are expected to address structural issues in the economy, including the optimization of consumption policies and the resolution of local government debt risks [28][36]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 0.25% on December 10, marking the third rate cut of the year, which may provide relief to consumers facing high borrowing costs [2][7] - The implications of the Fed's decision are particularly significant for retirees relying on Social Security, as it may affect their income and borrowing costs [2][6] Group 1: Impact on Savings and Investments - With the Fed's rate cut, yields on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs) are expected to decline, which could affect retirees' income from these sources [4][7] - Retirees are advised to maintain cash reserves for living expenses, but lower interest rates may reduce the returns on these "safe" investments [3][4] Group 2: Borrowing Costs and Consumer Debt - The average credit card balance for baby boomers is reported to be $6,795, which is comparable to millennials' average balance of $6,961, indicating that retirees do engage in borrowing [5][6] - As interest rates fall, consumer debt is likely to become less expensive, benefiting Social Security beneficiaries with credit card balances and potentially allowing them to refinance existing loans [6][7] Group 3: Social Security and Cost-of-Living Adjustments - The cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security in 2026 is set at 2.8%, but lower interest rates may positively influence future COLAs if inflation rises [7][8] - The purpose of Social Security COLAs is to protect beneficiaries' purchasing power against inflation, which remains a critical consideration for retirees [8]

下一任美联储主席是谁？特朗普表态了，可能是沃什、哈塞特二选一。 12月13日，特朗普表示，他更倾向选择前美联储理事凯文·沃什（Kevin Warsh）或国家经济委员会主任 凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）来领导美联储。 特朗普在椭圆形办公室接受采访时说，沃什目前排在候选名单最前列。"是的，我觉得他是。我觉得你 有'凯文和凯文'——他们俩都……我觉得这两位凯文都很棒，我觉得还有另外几个人也很棒。" 近几周以来，外界越来越把哈塞特视为领跑者，因为特朗普多次暗示自己已经敲定了美联储主席人选； 但特朗普的最新表态显示，沃什仍然是强有力的竞争者。 美联储本周把基准利率下调25个基点至3.5%—3.75%的区间，创三年来最低水平。不过，该决定出现了 三张反对票，为2019年以来最多：两位官员反对任何降息，另一位——特朗普的前顾问史蒂芬·米兰 （Stephen Miran）——则主张一次性降息50个基点。 近几周特朗普曾表示自己已经拿定主意由谁来领导央行。他周五再次强调了这一点，但同时也暗示最终 决定尚未完全敲定。他还承认，自己对当初选择现任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）感到 懊恼，因为当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates is not surprising, but the rationale behind it raises questions, particularly in light of the Fed's macroeconomic forecasts indicating higher GDP growth for the next year [1] Economic Outlook - The Fed's projections for GDP growth have increased by half a percent for 2026, suggesting a growing economy, which complicates the case for rate cuts [1] - The current Fed funds rate is viewed as appropriate given the economic conditions and inflation forecasts, leaving little room for further cuts [1] Artificial Intelligence Impact - The potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to boost productivity is acknowledged, but it poses a challenge for the Fed, as higher productivity could lead to higher interest rates rather than lower [1] - The uncertainty surrounding AI's impact on employment and productivity remains, with the possibility that AI could either complement or substitute human labor [1] Tariffs and Inflation - Chair Powell's comments on tariffs suggest that while they may temporarily raise prices, their long-term effects could be detrimental to productivity and supply chains [2][3] - The concern is less about immediate inflation and more about the corrosive long-term impact of tariffs on the economy [2] Federal Reserve Governance - The presence of dissenting opinions within the Fed is seen as a sign of a healthy organization, but it also presents challenges for governance, especially with an upcoming change in leadership [4][5] - The new Fed chair will need to unify differing perspectives while maintaining the Fed's independence from political influences [6][8] Economic Risks - There are both upside and downside risks to the economy, with the AI boom and economic resilience being potential positives, while a weakening labor market and credit cycle maturity pose risks [12][14] - Geopolitical risks are also highlighted as unpredictable factors that could impact the economic landscape [15]

Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future. Key Takeaways Gold surged to fresh all-time highs above $4,300/oz after the Fed delivered its final 2025 rate cut, extending the metal’s powerful uptrend. The FOMC’s 25-basis-point cut and renewed Treasury purchases were ...

An unusual three-way division within the Federal Reserve system has brought several corners of the ETF universe into focus as market participants reassess which corners might be more impacted by changes in respective GDP and interest rate forecasts. As forecast upgrades by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for GDP have been tempered by a cool labor market and high inflation, value, financial, and cash flow ETFs have emerged as corners of the market worth watching.ETFs At Center StageAlthough there is ...

Group 1 - The USD/CAD currency pair has declined for the fourth consecutive trading day, influenced by the weakening of the US dollar, reaching around 1.3750 [1] - The Federal Reserve signaled plans to lower the federal funds rate to 3.4% by 2026, while the Bank of Canada indicated that current interest rates should be maintained in the short term [1] - The US dollar index (DXY) remains weak, hovering near a seven-week low of 98.13, as market expectations suggest more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve than indicated in the latest dot plot [1] Group 2 - The Canadian dollar is performing strongly against most major currencies, except for currencies from Australasia, due to the low likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada [2] - The Bank of Canada reaffirmed that current interest rates are sufficient to keep inflation near the target of 2%, as long as economic and inflation trends meet expectations [2] Group 3 - The USD/CAD pair has dropped to 1.3760, remaining below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 1.3921, indicating a bearish short-term trend [5] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 28, indicating an oversold condition, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3772 serves as short-term support [5] - If the pair closes below the 1.3772 support level, it may open up further declines towards the 78.6% retracement level at 1.3671 [5]

从技术面来看，黄金在本月初触及4264美元附近后，转入宽幅震荡格局。目前4小时级别的均线及指标 呈粘合状态，表明短期内单边上涨行情尚未启动，但整体仍处于强势范畴。 隔夜强劲的上涨确认了突破近两周交易区间阻力的全新看涨突破，约在4245-4250美元区域。此外，日 线图上的震荡保持在积极区域，仍远离超买区，表明黄金价格的最小阻力路径仍然向上。 因此，任何进一步回调至上述阻力突破点都可视为买入机会。这应限制黄金在4220-4218美元区域附近 的损失，随后是4200美元和4170-4165美元的支撑区域。若有效跌破后者，可能会使偏向看跌交易者的 趋势发生转变，并为更深的损失铺平道路。 另一方面，4300美元的关口现在似乎成为了一个直接的障碍，突破后黄金可能攀升至4328-4330美元附 近的下一个相关阻力位。动能可能进一步延续，使黄金有望挑战历史最高点，约在4380美元区域，该点 位于10月触及。若突破4400美元整数关口，将被视为看涨交易者的全新触发点，并为黄金自10月月度低 点以来的持续上升趋势的延续奠定基础。 周五(12月12日)亚市盘中，现货黄金从高位下行，目前交投于4268.09美元/盎司附近，现货黄金 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced its third consecutive interest rate cut this year, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, while maintaining a forecast of only one rate cut in 2026, indicating increasing divergence among policymakers regarding future policy paths [2] - Chairman Powell stated that the current policy adjustments aim to stabilize a weakening labor market while maintaining sufficient tightening conditions to suppress inflation, with a goal of returning inflation to 2% as tariff impacts diminish [2] - The Federal Reserve will implement a key liquidity management measure, purchasing $40 billion in Treasury securities monthly starting December 12, to rebuild bank reserves that have significantly declined during the balance sheet reduction period [2] Group 2 - No new issuances were reported in the primary market today [4] - Two companies had their ratings updated: - Hailong Holdings is progressing with offshore debt restructuring for existing notes due in 2024, seeking to amend certain covenants [5] - Baolong Real Estate's subsidiary had a court-initiated liquidation application withdrawn to facilitate successful restructuring [5] - A meeting for "H20 Aoyuan 1" bondholders is scheduled to discuss adjustments to principal and interest payment arrangements [5] Group 3 - As of December 10, the yield on China's two-year government bonds was 1.39%, and the ten-year yield was 1.84% [7] - The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury bonds decreased by 4 basis points to 3.54%, while the ten-year yield fluctuated down by 5 basis points to 4.13% [7] Group 4 - The top 10 gainers in Chinese dollar bonds included: - New Power Holdings with a price increase of 294.737% [9] - Dafa Real Estate with a price increase of 157.491% [9] - The top 10 losers in Chinese dollar bonds included: - CENCHI with a price decrease of 24.879% [9]