Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, and the prices of finished steel products continue to fluctuate within the bottom range. The steel prices are expected to continue operating within the bottom range, and the winter storage is unlikely to form a concentrated replenishment market. Attention should be paid to the "dual - carbon" policies and their impact on the supply - demand pattern of the steel industry [2] - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate. The supply of iron ore has decreased in the short term, the demand has slightly recovered, and the port inventory is at a high level. Attention should be paid to overseas emergencies [5] - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced [9][10] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate. Its fundamentals are weak, and it mainly relies on silicon enterprises' production cuts to support prices. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - The price of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate. The demand is weak, the supply is still loose, and the inventory accumulation pressure exists. Attention should be paid to the implementation of enterprises' quota sales and the terminal demand feedback [16] - The price of glass may rise slightly, but the market lacks substantial demand and policy support. The price upward space is estimated to be between 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - The price of soda ash is expected to decline. The supply is in excess, and it is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3104 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.57%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton (-0.67%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [1] Strategy Views - The fundamentals of rebar show a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and continuous inventory reduction. For hot - rolled coils, production has increased significantly, apparent demand has strengthened slightly, and inventory has continued to decline [2] - The overall market is in a narrow - range shock, the terminal demand recovery is slow, and the hot - rolled coil inventory is under pressure. The steel price is expected to continue operating in the bottom range [2] Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 797.00 yuan/ton, up 0.95% (+7.50). The position increased by 25428 hands to 61.88 million hands. The weighted position was 94.83 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 806 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 59.59 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.96% [4] Strategy Views - Supply: The year - end shipping rush of mines has ended, and the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil has declined, and the shipping from non - mainstream countries has also decreased. The near - end arrival volume has increased [5] - Demand: The daily average molten iron output has slightly increased, some blast furnaces have resumed production, and the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved [5] - Inventory: The port inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period. The steel mill's imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level in the past five years [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On January 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed down 0.78% at 5866 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5730 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the futures [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.85% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, with a premium of 126 yuan/ton over the futures [8] Strategy Views - Macro: After a series of important macro - events, the market has shown a positive trend, but attention should be paid to the short - term impact of the "leading" products on the market sentiment [9] - Fundamentals: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but most factors have been reflected in the price. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced, with marginal improvement [10] - Key factors: The market direction of the black sector and cost - push factors of manganese ore and supply - contraction factors of ferrosilicon are the main contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [10] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8730 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (-130). The weighted contract position decreased by 3538 hands to 342532 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China remained unchanged, with basis of 470 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively [12] - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 58645 yuan/ton, up 1.25% (+725). The weighted contract position decreased by 6544 hands to 129961 hands. The spot prices of N - type silicon increased, with a basis of - 5395 yuan/ton [15] Strategy Views - Industrial silicon: The production in December was stable, the demand in January is weak, and it may continue to accumulate inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13][14] - Polysilicon: The downstream production in January has continued to decline, the supply is still loose, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of quota sales and terminal demand feedback [16] Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The main contract of glass closed at 1081 yuan/ton on Monday, down 0.55% (-6). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 413 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 848 short positions [18] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1177 yuan/ton on Monday, down 2.65% (-32). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises decreased by 3.00%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 1719 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 1109 short positions [20] Strategy Views - Glass: In December, the supply decreased, the demand declined in winter, and the market lacked substantial support. The price may rise slightly, with the upward space around 1100 - 1150 yuan/ton [19] - Soda Ash: In December, the domestic market was narrowly sorted, the supply was in excess, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. It is recommended to short at a high price in the range of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Songguo Travel, a shared electric bike company founded in 2017, has submitted its IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to expand its market presence despite facing significant profitability challenges in a highly competitive environment dominated by major players like Meituan, Hello, and Qinjue [1][2]. Company Overview - Songguo Travel was established by Zhai Guanglong, a member of the founding team of Meituan, and focuses on penetrating lower-tier markets, ranking first in peripheral development areas and fourth overall in China by transaction volume and vehicle deployment as of 2024 [1]. - The company has deployed over 450,000 electric bikes across 422 cities and counties, accumulating 128 million registered users [1]. Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, Songguo Travel reported an adjusted net profit of 26.4 million yuan, marking its first profitable period, although cumulative losses exceeded 400 million yuan from 2023 to 2025 [1][3]. - Revenue for 2023 and 2024 is projected at approximately 953 million yuan and 963 million yuan, respectively, with losses of about 192 million yuan and 151 million yuan during the same periods [3]. Market Position and Competition - Songguo Travel holds a market share of only 6.6% as of 2024, while the top three competitors control 67.4% of the market, highlighting the intense competition from larger ecosystem players [2][9]. - The shared electric bike industry has not yet achieved sustainable profitability, with many major players, including Songguo, facing ongoing financial challenges [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO to expand its network coverage, enhance research and development, and explore commercialization of electric bike sales and potential overseas expansion [9]. - Songguo Travel aims to increase its average fare per trip, which is expected to rise from 2.73 yuan in 2023 to 2.94 yuan by 2025, as it targets larger cities with higher order prices [6]. Industry Context - The shared electric bike market in China is projected to grow from 16.6 billion yuan in 2024 to 108.3 billion yuan by 2032, indicating significant growth potential despite the competitive landscape [9]. - The company’s focus on lower-tier markets provides a unique value proposition, although it lacks the ecosystem synergies that larger competitors enjoy [4][10]. Challenges and Opportunities - Songguo Travel faces challenges from growth bottlenecks, profitability pressures, and competition from larger firms, necessitating innovation in its business model to find new growth avenues [11]. - The company has the potential to leverage its extensive data from lower-tier markets to create user insights and align with smart city initiatives, which could open new value opportunities [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the re - inflow of institutional allocation funds at the beginning of the year and policy support suggest a long - term strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement in economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but with uncertain economic recovery momentum, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter [7]. - For precious metals, they may experience a short - term correction, but the long - term upward cycle may not end. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to be in a high - level or upward - trending state, but some may face short - term adjustments [12][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore prices are expected to oscillate due to supply and demand factors [30][33]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks, such as rubber being neutral, crude oil having an upward potential for heavy oil products, etc. [52][54]. - For agricultural products, the price trends of different products are diverse. For example, pig prices may weaken in the medium - term, while egg prices may rise first and then fall [77][78]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Events include the US raid on Venezuela, a nuclear fusion conference, a company's IPO application, and changes in shareholding ratios [2]. - **Strategy**: Long - term strategy of buying on dips due to institutional funds and policy support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Contract prices of TL, T, TF, and TS decreased. PMI data improved, and there were regulations on fund sales fees. The central bank had a net injection of funds [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may face pressure due to economic improvement expectations, but with uncertain economic recovery, it's expected to be weak and volatile in Q1 [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign prices of gold and silver decreased. The Fed's policy may turn tight, and silver's lease rate is high [8]. - **Strategy**: A short - term correction may occur, but the long - term upward cycle may not end. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Peripheral copper prices fluctuated, LME and domestic inventories changed, and Chile's copper production decreased [11]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to remain high with a slowdown in the upward trend, supported by supply and geopolitical factors [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: LME aluminum prices were strong, and domestic inventories and spot prices changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to external factors and supply - side support [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign zinc prices changed, and inventories and basis data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc prices may correct in the short - term but will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Domestic and foreign lead prices decreased, and inventories and basis data were provided [17]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices oscillated, and cost and supply - related data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices decreased, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [19]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it's recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices of carbonate lithium changed, and import prices of lithium concentrate increased [21]. - **Strategy**: Although the first - quarter demand is weak, the future supply - demand is expected to improve. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light position [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina index prices increased, and basis, inventory, and ore prices were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and wait for opportunities to short if there are no production cuts [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel futures prices increased, and spot prices and inventory data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [25]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Casting aluminum alloy prices increased, and inventory and trading volume data were provided [26]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be strong and oscillate due to cost and supply factors [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory and spot price data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and the winter storage willingness is weak [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices and basis data were provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate due to supply, demand, and inventory factors [32][33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass futures prices were flat, and soda ash futures prices decreased. Inventory and trading data were provided [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Glass prices may rise in the short - term, and it's recommended to short soda ash at high prices in the 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton range [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Futures prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. Spot prices and basis data were provided [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment may continue to be bullish, but attention should be paid to risks. The future market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices decreased, and polysilicon prices increased slightly. Supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [41][44]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be weak and oscillate. It's recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][45]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [47][50]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to stay on the sidelines and partially close the hedging position [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined oil futures prices decreased, and inventory data were provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The value of heavy oil products is expected to rise, and the crack spread of asphalt or fuel oil may increase [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices of methanol changed [55]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on dips due to low valuation and improved future outlook [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [57]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to take profit at high prices due to expected fundamental negatives [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: Prices, basis, and supply - demand data of pure benzene and styrene were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before Q1 [60]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC futures prices decreased, and cost, supply - demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to short on rallies due to the supply - demand imbalance [62]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation needs improvement, and it's expected to compress valuation without further production cuts [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: PTA may enter a inventory accumulation period after the Spring Festival. It's recommended to pay attention to short - term callback risks and mid - term long - buying opportunities [66][67]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene futures prices decreased, and supply - demand, inventory, and cost data were provided [68]. - **Strategy**: p - Xylene is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory before the maintenance season. It's recommended to pay attention to short - term callback risks and mid - term long - buying opportunities [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE futures and spot prices increased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP futures prices increased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: The PP price may bottom out after the supply - surplus pattern changes in Q1 [74]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices decreased in most areas, and demand varied in the north and south [76]. - **Strategy**: Short - term pig prices may be strong, but they may weaken in the medium - term. It's recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to far - month contract support [77]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were stable in most areas, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall [78]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to short on rallies due to limited price increase and decrease space [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: Futures prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [80]. - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to oscillate due to supply - demand factors [81]. Oils - **Market Information**: Futures prices of three major oils were weak and oscillated, and supply - demand and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Oil prices are close to the bottom range due to weak current fundamentals but optimistic expectations [83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and production data of India and Thailand were provided [84][85]. - **Strategy**: International sugar prices may rebound after February, and domestic sugar prices may continue to rebound in the short - term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton futures prices increased slightly, and supply - demand, inventory, and export data were provided [87]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to wait for a correction and then go long on cotton [88].

黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 黑色建材日报 2026-01-05 钢材 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3122 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.38%）。当日注册仓单 56844 吨, 环比减少 1212 吨。主力合约持仓量为 150.5284 万手，环比减少 55522 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天 津汇总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷 主力合约收盘价为 3270 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 12 元/吨（-0.36%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减 少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the market showed a significant upward trend or rebound after a series of important macro - events. The overall market sentiment turned bullish, but there was a risk of short - term market sentiment shock due to the possible "flame - out" of previous sentiment "leaders" such as silver, platinum, and lithium carbonate [15][96]. - For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream building materials industry demand. However, these factors have mostly been priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure is basically balanced with marginal improvement. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are mainly influenced by the direction of the black market and overall market sentiment, as well as cost - push issues on the manganese silicon side and supply contraction problems on the ferrosilicon side [15][96]. - In the context of the current bullish commodity sentiment, low port manganese ore inventory, and concentrated ownership of high - grade manganese ore, it is necessary to pay close attention to possible sudden events in the manganese ore sector and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [15][96]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Manganese Silicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month [14][20]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][25]. - Cost: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [14][30]. - Supply: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [14][44]. - Demand: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year [14][59][62]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period [14][70]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was priced at 5730 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton month - on - month and 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 (SM603) closed at 5920 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan/ton month - on - month and 182 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The basis was 0 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 0.00%, at a relatively low level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 436 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton month - on - month and 88 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 631 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, - 484 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton month - on - month and 241 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [25]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of South African ore was 35 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 0.8 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Australian ore was 41.7 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and 1.7 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month; Gabonese ore was 42.5 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree month - on - month and up 0.5 yuan/ton - degree from the beginning of the month. The market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 110 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6086 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 32 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 6201 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton month - on - month and 71 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Guangxi, 6234 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 41 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [27][30]. - **Manganese Ore Import**: In November 2025, the manganese ore import volume was 269.4 tons, down 40.6 tons month - on - month and up 49.4 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to November was 2956.8 tons, up 284 tons or 10.63% year - on - year [33]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 439.58 tons, down 7.22 tons month - on - month [36]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 19.37 tons, up 0.12 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 0.25% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 188.22 tons, up 3.83 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 3.73% year - on - year. The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in December 2025 was 14,700 tons, down 1300 tons month - on - month and up 1100 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5770 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month [56][59][62]. 3.5 Inventory - **Visible Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 54.45 tons, up 2.8 tons month - on - month, remaining at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's perspective was 39.35 tons, up 0.75 tons month - on - month [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In December 2025, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month, remaining at a relatively low level in historical statistics [76]. 3.6 Graphical Trends - In December 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a volatile rebound, rising 300 yuan/ton or 5.33% month - on - month. At the daily - line level, it continued the volatile rebound trend after breaking away from the medium - term downward trend since May 2024 and was in a short - term upward cycle with no obvious position increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure levels at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton [79]. Ferrosilicon 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [95][101]. - Profit: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][106]. - Cost: The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [95][112]. - Supply: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [95][117]. - Demand: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [95][123][126]. - Inventory: The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 12.33 tons, up 0.03 tons month - on - month, remaining at a relatively neutral level in the same period [95][140]. 3.2 Spot - Futures Market - As of December 31, 2025, Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon spot was priced at 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The futures主力 contract (SF603) closed at 5672 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis was 78 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis rate was 1.36%, at a relatively neutral level in historical statistics [101]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of ferrosilicon was in a loss state. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 373 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 231 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, - 410 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and 201 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, - 847 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 100 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [106]. - **Cost**: As of December 31, 2025, the price of silica in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. The price of semi - coke small materials was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main - production - area electricity price was unchanged month - on - month. The production cost in Inner Mongolia was 5693 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 81 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Ningxia, 5710 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 5 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; in Qinghai, 6097 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and up 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month [109][112]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's perspective was 9.89 tons, up 0.05 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output down about 0.54% year - on - year. In December 2025, the output was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December was down 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [117]. - **Demand**: The average daily hot metal output was 227.43 tons, up 0.85 tons week - on - week, with the cumulative weekly output up about 3.00% year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of ferrosilicon was 36.79 tons, down 2.77 tons or 7.01% year - on - year; the cumulative output of metallic magnesium was 78.72 tons, down 1.67 tons or 2.08% year - on - year. The Hebei Steel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in December 2025 was 2750 tons, up 34 tons month - on - month and 609 tons year - on - year; the tender price was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton month

编者按：当下，创业的热潮席卷三湘大地，"创业"无疑成为今年湖南备受瞩目的热词。为此，湖南红网新媒体集团携手长沙理工大学宣传部、文新学院，共 同推出《育见·创业者》系列报道。长沙理工大学文新学院的新闻学子们，深入创业一线，从熟悉的校园迈向充满挑战的创业场。他们用心记录，用情书 写，育见每一个不凡的梦想。 "随着合作企业不断拓展，我们自主研发的辨识软件也在持续更新。"2025年10月14日下午，在长沙理工大学云塘校区电网防灾减灾全国重点实验室五楼，长 沙理工大学2022级电气工程及其自动化专业学生、长沙纽恩内基科技有限公司（以下简称"纽恩内基科技"）负责人李睿恬，与同事陈伟一同自豪地介绍。 纽恩内基科技创立于2023年4月，主要围绕新能源仿真建模技术、新能源高低压电压穿越模型等领域，开发新能源机电暂态模型参数辨识软件。 灵感迸发：政策风口下精准捕捉市场空白 当被问及为何走上创业之路时，李睿恬回忆道，2023年，她跟随老师参与项目时，从合作企业处得知新能源参数辨识领域存在市场空白。专业所学与市场需 求的完美契合，让她敏锐地捕捉到了这一机遇。 李睿恬展示自己的工作内容。 "我们实验室的仿真建模技术恰好能解决这个问题。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum industry, particularly the electrolytic aluminum sector, and its investment strategy for 2026, highlighting the impact of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors on aluminum supply and demand [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Constraints**: China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited by dual carbon policies, power shortages, and technological constraints, leading to a long-term tight supply situation that supports high aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Global Manufacturing Recovery**: The global manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 for four consecutive months, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in Europe and emerging industrialized countries, which is expected to drive aluminum demand [4]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased geopolitical risks and environmental uncertainties are raising the demand for strategic resource reserves, leading to more conservative mineral investments and stricter export controls, which further exacerbate supply uncertainties [1][5]. - **Interest Rate Impact**: A declining interest rate cycle typically boosts industrial metal prices. With low global inventory levels, a sustained decline in interest rates is expected to stimulate restocking, positively impacting aluminum prices [6]. - **North American Supply Issues**: Energy supply constraints in North America, exacerbated by AI development, may lead to further production cuts in the U.S. and Canada, affecting global supply-demand balance [12]. - **Recycling Challenges**: Progress in aluminum recycling is slow, with reduced subsidies for scrap aluminum and a lack of significant increases in scrap supply, maintaining a tight balance in domestic and international supply [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Price Comparisons**: The aluminum market shows similarities to historical salt price trends, where both commodities have abundant reserves but face price pressures due to technological and regulatory constraints [3]. - **Future Demand Trends**: The demand for industrial metals, including aluminum, is expected to steadily increase in the coming years, driven by developments in AI, renewable energy, and infrastructure upgrades [4][8]. - **Valuation and Investment Outlook**: The aluminum sector has undergone debt repair, with an average dividend yield of 5%, making it attractive for long-term investments. The sector's valuation is currently around 8-9 times earnings, with potential to rise to 13-15 times [16][18]. - **Company Recommendations**: For companies with strong resilience, recommendations include Tianshan, Hongchuang, and Nanshan Aluminum, which are noted for their cost advantages and integrated operations [20]. For companies with flexibility, Yun Aluminum and Zhongfu are highlighted due to their benefits from marginal changes [19]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry is poised for growth due to a combination of supply constraints, recovering demand, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Investment opportunities exist in companies with strong fundamentals and strategic positioning within the sector [21][22].

陈张滢 黑色建材日报 2025-12-31 黑色建材组 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3134 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.127%）。当日注册仓单 58056 吨, 环比增加 2440 吨。主力合约持仓量为 156.0806 万手，环比增加 30014 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨（-0.15%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。 主力合约持仓量为 128.3319 万手，环比增加 7022 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-30 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3130 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 12 元/吨（0.384%）。当日注册仓单 55616 吨, 环比减少 4826 吨。主力合约持仓量为 153.0792 万手，环比减少 3632 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比增加 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3300 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to buy on dips [2][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Attention should be paid to the repair of the supply - demand relationship at the end of the year and the rebound after the oversold [5][7]. - For precious metals, they are in an accelerating upward phase. There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions when the hourly technical pattern weakens and not to open new long or short positions [8][9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment. Some are expected to rise further, while others need to pay attention to the impact of inventory and other factors on prices [11][12][13][14]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillation range. Glass and soda ash markets are expected to remain weak, and manganese - silicon and silicon - iron need to pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors [31][32][33][34]. - For energy chemicals, rubber prices are oscillating strongly with a neutral - to - long - term view. Oil prices are maintained with a low - buy and high - sell strategy. Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. Urea is expected to oscillate and build a bottom. Other chemicals also have their own supply - demand and price trends [47][50][51][52]. - For agricultural products, the short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound. Egg prices may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. Other agricultural products also have their own price trends based on supply - demand relationships [74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank aims to improve the scale and proportion of medium - and long - term funds investing in A - shares. Rules for commercial rocket companies to list on the STAR Market are refined. The first batch of L3 - level autonomous vehicles in China start large - scale road operation. International gold and silver prices reach new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite short - term uncertainty, the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts change. National industrial enterprise profit data is released, and a fiscal work meeting is held, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducts 930 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 368 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand relationship and rebound opportunities [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Domestic and international gold and silver prices rise. The expected expansion of US fiscal policy drives up the price of gold, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively next year, pushing up the price of silver [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term correction in January next year, but the upward cycle is not over. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and not to open new positions [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai copper breaks through 100,000 yuan per ton. The weekly inventory of copper at the SHFE increases, and the spot discount expands [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of copper is expected to rise further, but attention should be paid to the suppression of inventory accumulation on the upward trend [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai aluminum rises. The inventory of aluminum ingots increases slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreases [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of aluminum is expected to rise further, supported by the rise of precious metals and copper prices [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai zinc rises. The inventory of zinc ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [15][16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of zinc are weak, but there is a risk of supplementary price increases following the sector [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai lead rises. The inventory of lead ingots in the SHFE and the social inventory change [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, but the price is supported by the reduction of supply on the recycling side and low inventory [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel rebounds slightly. The spot premium and the price of nickel ore and nickel pig iron change [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but the short - term bottom may have been reached. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of Shanghai tin rises. The production of tin smelting enterprises and the demand of tin solder enterprises change [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of tin is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate rises. The price of Australian lithium concentrate also rises [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The change in the pricing method and the initiative in long - term contracts are beneficial to the restoration of the spot valuation. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina rises. The spot price, overseas price, and inventory change [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of ore is expected to oscillate downward. It is recommended to wait and see and not to chase long positions blindly [24][25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel changes. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory change [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of stainless steel may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to policy implementation [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuates. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreases [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [29]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil change. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices change [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation. The demand is weak, and the winter storage intention is low [32]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore rises. The spot price, basis, and inventory change [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of iron ore decreases, the demand is stable, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to operate within an oscillation range [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash change. The inventory, positions, and spot prices change [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to remain weak, and the soda ash market has limited rebound strength [36][37]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron change. The spot prices and basis change [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Attention should be paid to the risk of supplementary price increases in the black sector and the cost and supply factors of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon change. The spot prices, positions, and inventory change [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate [43][45]. Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillates strongly. The tire start - up rate, inventory, and spot price change [47][48][49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of rubber is expected to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to operate short - term and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil falls, and the prices of refined oil products rise. The inventory of Singapore ESG oil products changes [51]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support intention [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of methanol change [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The methanol market is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [54]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price and the main futures price of urea change [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of urea decreases, and the demand increases. It is recommended to buy on dips [56]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene change. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [58]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC rises. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory change [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply of PVC is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and the inventory accumulates. The price is expected to compress the valuation [62]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [65]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene rises. The supply, demand, inventory, and cost change [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the callback risk and the opportunity to go long on dips [67]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP rises. The upstream start - up rate, inventory, and downstream start - up rate change [71]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of PP are weak, and attention should be paid to the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost end in the first quarter of next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Hogs - **Market Information**: The price of hogs rises. The supply and demand in the market change [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term strength of hog prices may continue, but a short - selling strategy is maintained after the near - month rebound [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs is stable or rises. The supply and demand in the market change [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price may rebound slightly before the New Year's Day and then fall slightly. It is recommended to short on rallies in the near - month and pay attention to the upper pressure in the far - month [78]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The price of CBOT soybeans falls. The domestic soybean meal price, trading volume, and inventory change [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import cost of soybean meal has a bottom support, and the price is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production and export of Malaysian palm oil change. The import of Indian vegetable oil decreases. The price of domestic oils and fats rebounds [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe the high - frequency production and export data and operate short - term [82][83]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar rises. The import volume of sugar and syrup changes. The production of sugar in Brazil and India changes [84][85]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest in February next year. The domestic sugar price may continue to rebound in the short term [86]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton rises. The spot price, import volume, and inventory change [87][88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong. It is recommended to wait for a callback and then go long [89].