金十数据5月15日讯，"长期来看，M2增速宜作为观测性指标。"业内人士表示，从长期来看，我国M2 增速总体保持在7%以上，持续高于名义经济增速；从短期来看，M2增速也会受市场运行、经济主体行 为等因素影响，出现一定的暂时性波动。业内专家表示，将M2增速作为货币政策的观测性指标，有其 内在合理性，随着金融深化和经济结构转型，市场研究表明，货币总量与经济增长的相关性在减弱，主 要发达经济体也都经历过逐步淡化并放弃盯住总量指标的过程。 （金融时报） 业内人士：宜将广义货币作为观测性指标 ...

中国人民银行14日发布的金融统计数据显示，前4个月我国人民币贷款增加10.06万亿元，其中企（事） 业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元。 数据显示，4月末，我国人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7.2%。分部门来看，前4个月，住户贷 款增加5184亿元；企（事）业单位贷款增加9.27万亿元，其中中长期贷款增加5.83万亿元。 从货币供应看，4月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额 109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%。 另外，前4个月我国人民币存款增加12.55万亿元，其中住户存款增加7.83万亿元。 此外，同日发布的社会融资数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量为424万亿元，同比增长8.7%； 前4个月社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。 社融方面，王青分析，4月用于化债的地方政府债券大规模发行，成为带动新增社融同比增加的主因， 表明政府债券融资正在成为稳增长、控风险的主要抓手，这也是一揽子增量政策持续发力的具体体现。 除政府债券融资外，4月表外票据融资和企业债券融资也对社融起到了拉动作用。 "去年同期，政府专项债券和新增未贴现银行 ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China reported that as of the end of April 2025, the RMB loan balance reached 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.17 trillion yuan, showing an 8% year-on-year increase [1] - The total social financing stock was 424.0 trillion yuan at the end of April, reflecting an 8.7% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - In the first four months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 1.006 trillion yuan, with April alone contributing an additional 280 billion yuan [2] - The credit data for April was influenced by multiple factors, including a traditional low month for credit and rising uncertainties affecting market expectations and export growth [2] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds for local government debt has impacted the credit growth statistics, but the actual support for the economy remains strong [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of government bond issuance has significantly supported the social financing scale, with net financing exceeding 500 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025 [4] - In April, the net financing from government bonds was approximately 970 billion yuan, contributing to a 0.3 percentage point increase in social financing growth [4] Group 4 - The M2 growth rate increased due to a low base effect from the previous year, rising by 1 percentage point compared to the end of March [5] - The reduction in deposits in April was about 870 billion yuan, which had a positive impact on M2 growth by approximately 1 percentage point [5] - The narrow money supply (M1) balance was 109.14 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.5%, showing a slight decline from the previous month [5][6]

Group 1 - As of the end of April 2025, the balance of RMB loans reached 265.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8% year-on-year, with a notable increase of 1 percentage point compared to the end of the previous month [1][2] - The total social financing stock was 424 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1][3] Group 2 - In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing was 16.34 trillion yuan, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3] - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 9.78 trillion yuan, which is 339.7 billion yuan more than the previous year [3] - The acceleration of government bond issuance has been the primary driver of social financing growth, with net financing exceeding 5 trillion yuan in the first four months of 2025, an increase of approximately 3.6 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]

今年财政支持力度大、发债节奏快，支持扩内需、宽信用，对社融形成有力支撑。今年财政预算赤字率提高至4%，计划新增国债、特别国债、地方专项债 等政府债券近12万亿元，规模创历史新高。发行节奏上，年初以来国债、地方专项债发行进度也明显快于往年，用于化债的2万亿元特殊再融资专项债也发 行了约70%。 近期财政部还启动了支持"两新""两重"的1.3万亿元特别国债，预计后续特别国债的发行进度仍会保持较快速度，促进拉动需求，提振社会信心，对社融形 成有力支撑。专家表示，今年以来宏观政策效果较好，财政政策力度加大、节奏前移是重要因素，与货币政策形成更强合力，推动经济实现良好开局。 5月14日，中国人民银行发布4月金融数据。数据显示，截至2025年4月末，广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%，比上月末高1个百分点。社会 融资规模方面，2025年1月至4月，社会融资规模增量累计为16.34万亿元，比上年同期多3.61万亿元。贷款方面，1月至4月人民币各项贷款余额为265.70万亿 元，同比增长7.2%。总体来看，金融总量增长既"稳"又"实"，体现了适度宽松的货币政策取向。 社会融资规模增速有所抬升，政府债券发行加 ...

央行：4月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币(M1)余额109.14万亿元，同比 增长1.5%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.14万亿元，同比增长12%。前四个月净投放现金3193亿元。 相关链接 ...

智通财经5月14日电，央行数据显示，4月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货 币(M1)余额109.14万亿元，同比增长1.5%。流通中货币(M0)余额13.14万亿元，同比增长12%。前四个 月净投放现金3193亿元。 中国4月货币供应量M2同比增长8% 高于市场预期 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the index rebounds, and investors are advised to wait and see. The domestic economy is weakly stabilizing with loose fiscal and monetary policies, but attention should be paid to risks such as tariff policy disturbances, overseas economic inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and Fed - related policies [2]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. Macro and Market Outlook for Stock Index Futures - **Domestic News**: In Q1 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 15.18 trillion yuan, 2.37 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of March, M2 balance was 326.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and M1 balance was 113.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [2]. - **Overseas News**: The US Commerce Secretary said that the Trump administration's exemption of full "reciprocal" tariffs on smartphones, computers, and other electronics is a temporary measure, and these devices will be covered by upcoming industry - based tariffs [2]. - **Weekly Summary and Outlook**: Last week, the CSI 300 index opened lower, hit bottom, and then rebounded, with a significant increase in trading volume. In the past 5 trading days, the net outflow of main funds was 242 billion yuan, and margin trading funds decreased by 93.7 billion yuan. Technically, the CSI 300 index is below the 40 - day moving average, with short - term trading volume increasing and medium - to - long - term valuations at medium - low levels [2]. 3.2. Stock Index Futures Market and Basis - **Price Movement**: Stock index futures opened lower, hit bottom, and then rebounded, with an increase in market trading volume [5]. - **Basis**: The current index basis rate is at a high level, and there are reverse arbitrage opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index futures [5]. - **Price Changes**: Since 2024, large - cap stocks in the SSE 50 have risen by 14.28%, and small - cap stocks in the CSI 1000 have risen by 0.13% [5]. - **Futures Contract Data**: | Futures Contract | Last Week's Close | This Week's Close | Weekly Increase | Weekly Volume | Weekly Open Interest | Volume/Open Interest | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | IF2506 | 3837 | 3686.6 | - 3.92% | 542267 | 139942 | 3.87 | | IH2506 | 2658 | 2595.6 | - 2.35% | 308515 | 47569 | 6.49 | | IC2506 | 5712.2 | 5424.2 | - 5.04% | 310061 | 96669 | 3.21 | | IM2506 | 6031.8 | 5672.2 | - 5.96% | 1195363 | 173299 | 6.90 | [4] 3.3. Macro and Earnings Growth of Stock Index - **Macro**: In March, the manufacturing PMI was 50.5, above the boom - bust line. The interest rate was 1.64%, below 3%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 7%, returning to normal. - **Profit**: The year - on - year change of net profit of A - share enterprises in the first three quarters turned from decline to increase, and the net profit of the CSI 300 increased year - on - year. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds was 1.64%, a decrease of 11 BP from last week [8]. 3.4. Capital and Valuation Changes of Stock Index - **Capital**: The margin trading balance of A - shares decreased by 93.7 billion yuan in the past 5 trading days, and the net outflow of main funds of A - shares in the past 5 trading days was 242 billion yuan [13]. - **Valuation**: The overall index valuation is at a medium - low level. The rolling price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 index is 11 times, and the percentile is 32% [13]. - **Index Valuation Data**: | Index | Rolling P/E | P/E Percentile | P/B | P/B Percentile | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | CSI 300 | 11.46 | 32% | 1.28 | 8% | | SSE 50 | 10.26 | 42% | 1.16 | 13% | | CSI 500 | 21.34 | 32% | 1.75 | 12% | | CSI 1000 | 24.66 | 39% | 1.91 | 10% | [10] 3.5. Fundamental and Technical Analysis of Stock Index - **Fundamentals**: - **Macro Environment**: In the medium - to - long - term, the currency is loose, the interest rate is low, and the domestic economy is weakly stabilizing (bullish). - **Earnings**: The earnings of A - shares in the first three quarters increased year - on - year (bullish). - **Capital**: Margin trading funds decreased, and main funds had a short - term net outflow (bearish). - **Valuation**: The current valuation is still at a medium - low level, which supports the stock index in the medium - to - long - term (bullish) [17]. - **Technical Analysis**: The CSI 300 index is below the medium - to - long - term moving average, with an increase in trading volume, and short - term wide - range fluctuations (neutral) [16].

Group 1 - The central bank reported that as of the end of March, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 326.06 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 113.49 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [1] - The amount of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.07 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [1] - In the first quarter, a net cash injection of 249.8 billion yuan was recorded [1]