Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The new housing transaction area has increased month-on-month, continuously consolidating the stability of the real estate market. In the 17th week of 2025, the new housing transaction area in 68 cities increased by 14% month-on-month but decreased by 23% year-on-year. The total transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 39.57 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4% [4][18] - The central government emphasizes the need to prevent and resolve risks in key areas of the real estate sector, implement urban renewal actions, and accelerate the construction of a new development model for real estate [4][5] - The financing side shows a month-on-month increase in domestic credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 11.65 billion yuan in the 17th week, a year-on-year decrease of 29% but a month-on-month increase of 21% [45] Summary by Sections 1. Market Stability and Policy Support - The central government and local governments are implementing policies to support the real estate market, including optimizing housing provident fund policies in Hangzhou to support employees in purchasing affordable housing [4][5][14] 2. Sales Performance - The new housing transaction area in 68 major cities decreased by 23% year-on-year but increased by 14% month-on-month. The second-hand housing transaction area in 20 cities increased by 6% year-on-year but decreased by 7% month-on-month [6][33] 3. Investment Trends - The total land transaction area in 100 major cities decreased by 31% year-on-year, with a transaction premium rate of 4.3%. The land transaction area in first-tier cities decreased by 74% year-on-year [39][40] 4. Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds has shown a month-on-month increase, with a total issuance of 116.5 billion yuan in the 17th week, despite a year-on-year decrease of 29% [45][47] 5. Weekly Market Review - The real estate index fell by 1.31%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index rise by 0.38% [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [13]. Core Insights - Increasing the supply of high-quality housing is expected to positively impact consumer demand and stabilize land finance. Housing serves as both an investment and a consumer good, with high-quality housing representing a new consumption category that can alleviate pressures from oversupply and income expectations [2][10]. - The policy goal of stabilizing the market is becoming more proactive, with improved market expectations. The rapid decline in industry volume and price may have passed, highlighting structural opportunities in core areas and quality properties [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality housing supply in opening up new market space amid weak overall supply-demand dynamics, which is crucial for boosting consumer demand and stabilizing land finance [10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 1.13% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.51%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index is down 3.74%, with a slight outperformance of 0.02% relative to the CSI 300 [7][16]. - The performance of the development sector was primarily negative, while property management and rental sectors saw some gains [7]. Policy Developments - The Central Political Bureau meeting highlighted the need to increase the supply of high-quality housing and optimize existing property acquisition policies. Local policies, such as Xiamen's new housing voucher initiative, aim to enhance flexibility and efficiency in housing choices [8][18]. - The report notes that the focus on urban renewal and the construction of a new real estate development model is crucial for maintaining market stability [10][18]. Sales Data - In sample cities, new home sales showed a year-on-year decline of 6.8%, while second-hand home sales increased by 20.1%. Year-to-date, new home sales are up 1.0%, and second-hand sales are up 29.3% [9][19]. - The report indicates that the sales performance of new homes is under pressure, while second-hand homes are performing relatively well [9][19].

Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a positive economic start[5] - The need for robust policies to stabilize the economic recovery amidst increasing external shocks is emphasized[5] Fiscal Policy - The new local government special bond limit for 2025 is set at CNY 44,000 billion, an increase of CNY 5,000 billion from the previous year, marking the largest scale since 2015[6] - As of April 25, 2025, CNY 11,372 billion of special bonds have been issued, achieving 25.8% of the annual plan[6] Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, with a focus on timely adjustments such as potential rate cuts[9] - Social financing stock increased by 8.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with new social financing amounting to CNY 15.2 trillion, an increase of CNY 2.4 trillion compared to the previous year[9] Consumer Spending - Final consumption expenditure contributed 51.7% to economic growth in Q1 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points[11] - Over 120 million people have benefited from subsidies under the "old for new" policy, leading to sales exceeding CNY 720 billion[12] Real Estate Market - In March 2025, new residential prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1%, marking five consecutive months of stabilization[16] - The government is focusing on urban renewal and improving housing quality, with new standards set to take effect on May 1, 2025[17]

Group 1 - China Communications Construction Company plans to transfer its real estate development assets and liabilities to its controlling shareholder, aiming to focus on property management and asset management to enhance profitability and asset quality [1] - Poly Developments has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission to issue convertible bonds, with the approval valid for 12 months from the date of registration [2] - In Hangzhou, two residential land parcels were sold for approximately 4.473 billion, with an average premium rate of 63.7%, indicating strong demand in the real estate market [3] Group 2 - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market and implement policies to address local government debt and enhance housing supply [4] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is advancing urban dilapidated housing renovations and enhancing safety management for urban and rural housing [5]

Core Viewpoint - The State Council emphasizes the need to maintain stability in the stock and real estate markets, with a focus on implementing policies to promote healthy development in these sectors [2]. Policy Dynamics - The State Council meeting highlighted the importance of adhering to the central economic work conference's directives, aiming for sustained efforts to stabilize the stock market and promote the real estate market's healthy development [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have introduced measures to expand and upgrade household service consumption, including incorporating eligible domestic service workers into the public rental housing and guaranteed rental housing systems [2]. Local Policy Initiatives - 11 provinces and cities have issued 13 policies to stabilize the market, with Beijing, Chengdu, and Shanghai announcing related housing policies [3]. - Beijing plans to construct and collect 50,000 units of guaranteed rental housing and complete 80,000 units of various types of guaranteed housing throughout the year [3]. - Chengdu has defined guaranteed housing as government-planned and collected housing, while Shanghai allows recent graduates to apply for rental housing within two years of graduation [3]. - Cities like Wuxi and Hangzhou have relaxed restrictive policies, enhancing the liquidity of commercial housing and providing tax incentives for home purchases [3]. New Housing Transaction Trends - New housing transaction volume in first and second-tier cities has seen a decline of less than 5%, while third and fourth-tier cities have maintained a slight increase [4][6]. - The average absorption rate for newly opened projects has increased by 7 percentage points to 40% [8]. - In the 16th week of 2025, the transaction index for first-tier cities decreased by 4.1 points to 80.45, while the index for second-tier cities fell by 2.46 points to 34.64 [6]. Key City Performance - Major cities like Beijing and Shanghai experienced a decline in weekly transactions, while cities like Shenzhen and Chengdu saw an increase of over 5% [15].