Group 1 - The Chinese real estate market has shown signs of fatigue since the second quarter of 2021, with the average national housing price dropping from 11,000 yuan per square meter to 9,526 yuan per square meter, a decline of 15% [1] - As of June this year, 34 out of 70 major cities have seen second-hand housing prices fall below two years ago, with 27 cities below three years ago, and 6 cities even lower than five years ago, indicating a significant downturn in the market [1] - In the first half of this year, the total sales of commercial housing reached only 6.6 trillion yuan, which is less than 40% of last year's total sales of 18.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a substantial drop in developer sales performance [3] Group 2 - Various cities have implemented policies to stimulate the sluggish market, including "price drop limits" in 23 cities, the cancellation of "purchase limits," and reductions in mortgage rates, but these measures have not effectively reversed the market's decline [5] - High-rise residential buildings, once popular, now reveal several drawbacks, such as higher shared area costs, difficulties in emergency evacuations, and low likelihood of future demolition, making them less attractive to buyers [7] - Experts warn that certain types of properties may become "hot potatoes" in a prolonged downturn, prompting savvy investors to start liquidating their assets [8] Group 3 - Small property rights houses, once appealing due to their low prices, now face bleak prospects as their legalization hopes have faded, and they are considered difficult to sell due to safety concerns and regulatory violations [9] - Properties in remote suburban areas, previously favored for their affordability, are now struggling due to inadequate infrastructure and transportation, leading to larger price declines compared to city center properties [9] - Properties in cities experiencing population outflows are likely to see reduced demand and insufficient price support, further complicating the market landscape [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current real estate market in China is facing significant challenges, and potential buyers should consider long-term implications rather than immediate conditions when making purchasing decisions [3][4]. Group 1: Market Conditions - As of early 2025, real estate development investment in China has decreased to 19,904 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.9% year-on-year decline, indicating ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [6]. - Despite government efforts, the market remains stagnant, with predictions of continued challenges in the coming years [6]. - The overall housing prices are not expected to rebound significantly, with predictions of a potential decline of 15% to 25% by 2028 according to Goldman Sachs [7]. Group 2: Risks for Buyers - The shadow of declining housing prices persists, with many buyers experiencing significant losses on their investments, as exemplified by a case where a buyer's property value dropped nearly 20% [7]. - There is an anticipated upward trend in mortgage rates due to economic recovery and inflation pressures, which could lead to increased monthly payments for homeowners [9][10]. - The aging population in China is altering housing demand, with a shift towards smaller, more suitable living arrangements for older demographics, potentially leaving larger properties in lower demand [11]. Group 3: Recommendations for Buyers - Buyers should prioritize the residential aspect of real estate over investment potential, focusing on properties that meet their living needs rather than speculative gains [13]. - It is advisable to maintain a conservative approach to borrowing, ensuring that monthly payments do not exceed 30% of household income and keeping reserves for potential rate increases [14]. - Understanding urban development plans and demographic trends is crucial, as these factors will influence property values in the future [15][16]. - Buyers should consider the liquidity and marketability of properties, opting for types that are easier to sell or rent in a downturn [17]. - A long-term financial plan should be established, taking into account future income expectations and potential changes in the economic landscape [18].

日前，新三板上市企业江苏金新城物业服务股份有限公司（以下简称"金新城"，873058.NQ）发布公告 称，近日获悉公司实际控制人之一许培新被上海市公安局浦东分局实施强制措施并立案调查。金新城方 面同时表示："本次案件尚待进一步调查。" 官网资料显示，金新城系金新城集团旗下物业管理公司，具有国家物业管理企业一级资质，于2018年10 月挂牌新三板。自成立以来，金新城为住宅、城市综合体、写字楼、商业街区、现代产业园等多种物业 类型提供服务，与金新城地产品牌实现了良性互动及可持续增长。 金新城集团创建于2002年，总部设于江苏省张家港市，是全国发展、布局的城市综合开发运营商，逐步 构建形成了置业集团、资管集团、物业上市企业、园林公司多位一体的发展版图，项目遍布长三角区 域。 中经记者 方超 石英婧 上海报道 《中国经营报》记者注意到，此次被立案调查的许培新，辞任金新城董事及董事长职务尚不满两年，目 前任金新城集团董事长。2023年12月18日，金新城发布公告称，于12月16日收到董事长许培新递交的辞 职报告，自2023年12月16日起生效，辞职原因为"因个人原因"。 （编辑：张家振 审核：童海华 校对：翟军） （目 ...

上周末我和几位老朋友聚餐，席间谈到了房产投资的话题。刚升职的老李兴奋地说自己手里有了50万积 蓄，正在犹豫是买房还是继续存钱。"现在房价走势不明朗，但钱放银行又贬值，真不知道该怎么选。"他 无奈地摊了摊手。这时，在某大型房企工作的张哥插话道："我们内部有句话，'买房看城市，存钱看时 机'，还有一句，'交付不难，交付能活下去的开发商才是真的不难'。"这两句话引发了大家的热烈讨论，也 让我对2025年的买房还是存钱这个问题产生了深入思考。 买房和存钱，是大多数普通家庭面临的重要资产配置决策。根据中国人民银行发布的数据，截至2025年6 月，我国居民存款余额已达124.8万亿元，同比增长9.2%；而中国指数研究院的报告显示，2025年上半 年，全国300个城市商品住宅成交面积同比下降7.3%，许多潜在购房者正持币观望。这一数据背后，反映 的正是当前人们在"买房还是存钱"这个问题上的犹豫和思考。 让我们先来分析现阶段买房的优势和挑战。 从优势来看，首先是部分城市的房价已经经历了一轮调整，相比历史高点已有所回落。据国家统计局数 据，截至2025年8月，全国70个大中城市新建商品住宅价格指数较2022年峰值平均下跌了约8 ...

Group 1 - National statistics indicate that from January to September, the sales area of new commercial housing nationwide was approximately 6.58 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to January to August [2] - The sales revenue for new commercial housing in the first three quarters was about 6.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, with the decline rate also expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to January to August [2] - As of the end of September, the unsold area of commercial housing nationwide was 75.928 million square meters, a decrease of 2.41 million square meters from the end of August, indicating a slight improvement in inventory levels [2] Group 2 - The construction area of real estate development enterprises from January to September was approximately 6.486 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4% [4] - The new construction area was about 4.54 million square meters, down 18.9%, although the decline rate narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to January to August [4] - Real estate development investment totaled 67.706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%, with residential investment at 52.046 billion yuan, down 12.9% [4] Group 3 - The narrowing decline in new construction is attributed to better market absorption of quality housing products and stable land sales in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [5] - Major state-owned enterprises have increased their market share, with four leading state-owned enterprises accounting for 25.29% of the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies [5] - The pressure on funding for real estate companies remains, with total funds available decreasing by 8.4% year-on-year to 72.299 billion yuan [5] Group 4 - The industry expects that stabilizing market expectations will be key to halting the decline, with policies likely to accelerate implementation in the fourth quarter [7] - In major cities, the transaction volume of second-hand housing has shown signs of recovery, although the "price for volume" strategy is expected to persist in the short term [7] - The overall market is anticipated to continue focusing on depleting existing inventory, with new supply in core cities expected to support new home sales [7]

首先，我们不妨回顾一下近期楼市的具体表现。进入2023年后，国内楼市曾短暂回暖，一二月份成交量显著上升，甚至有开发商伺机上调房价。然而，好景 不长，三月份各地楼市成交量再次下滑。根据CRIC的数据显示，除少数一线城市保持回暖态势外，二线城市成交量环比下降28%，同比锐减61%；三四线城 市情况更为严峻，环比下降45%，同比下降59%。 与此同时，二手房挂牌量却呈现井喷式增长。权威机构数据显示，3月全国重点监测的65个城市二手房新增挂牌量环比大幅上涨64%，其中，北京、上海、 深圳、广州分别环比上涨66.4%、48.6%、41.9%和95.6%，涨幅惊人。更令人担忧的是，百城房价数据显示，3月份二手住宅市场均价下跌的城市达到66个， 较上月增加6个；而均价上涨的城市仅有31个，较上月减少6个。量价齐跌的趋势，无疑加剧了市场的悲观情绪。 楼市风向标：高层电梯房或成"烫手山芋"？ 网红企业家曹德旺多年前就曾预言，国内房地产市场将面临调整，未来房产或将滞销难租，一语成谶，如今的市场走向似乎正印证了他的判断。值得注意的 是，相较于多层住宅，20至30层的高层电梯房，其变现难度可能更大，究其原因，不外乎以下几点： 第一， ...

Core Insights - The real estate market in China has not shown significant improvement in key indicators since the beginning of the year, with a continued decline in housing prices and investment [2][5] - In September, new residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with only Beijing and Shanghai experiencing slight increases [3][4] - The overall real estate development investment for the first three quarters of the year was 67,706 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 13.9% [5] Price Trends - In September, the year-on-year decline in new residential sales prices in first-tier cities narrowed to 0.7%, with Shanghai seeing a 5.6% increase [4] - Second and third-tier cities also experienced a narrowing of year-on-year price declines, with decreases of 2.1% and 3.4%, respectively [4] Sales and Investment - The sales area of new residential properties fell by 5.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with sales revenue decreasing by 7.9% [5] - The new construction area saw a significant decline of 18.9%, indicating a slowdown in development activity [5] Policy Outlook - The real estate market is expected to continue experiencing a loose policy environment, with potential interest rate cuts and measures to stimulate demand [6] - The real estate sentiment index has dropped to 92.78, reflecting ongoing market challenges [6] Land Market Dynamics - High premium rates in land auctions in core cities like Beijing and Shanghai indicate a recovery in developer confidence regarding core assets [7]

Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization, with some cities entering a new phase of recovery despite ongoing adjustments [1][4][6] Price Trends - In September, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, while Beijing and Shanghai saw increases of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively [2][3] - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.7%, but this decline is narrowing compared to previous months [2][3] - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased, with 8 cities reporting year-on-year price increases, up from 5 the previous month [3][4] Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that the current market is still undergoing deep adjustments, but the overall trend remains positive, indicating a potential for recovery [4][5] - The average month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices has decreased from 0.91% before the "9.26 new policy" last year to 0.58% this year [5] - The year-on-year decline in second-hand home prices has also narrowed from 9.0% last September to 5.2% this September, indicating a clearer trend towards market stabilization [5] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is expected to continue a "weak recovery, strong differentiation" trend, with an overall transaction decline likely to be controlled around 10% [6] - The combination of last year's low base effect and ongoing policy impacts is anticipated to further narrow year-on-year price declines in the last quarter of the year, with first-tier cities potentially seeing price increases [6]

中国经济网北京10月20日讯(记者李方)国家统计局今日发布数据显示，9月份，70个大中城市中，各线 城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅继续呈收窄态势。 "二手房市场处于深度调整过程中。当前无论是房东或房客，都希望价格能够稳住。"严跃进认为，二手 房市场已经经历了一轮深度的调整，大约在2022年的时候出现了实质性的深度调整，深度调整带来了企 稳的扎实基础，意味着二手房的价格泡沫挤掉了很多，为后续市场稳定带来较好的基础。 58安居客研究院院长张波分析认为，"金九"楼市保持了相对稳定，二手市场成交量稳，新房持续结构性 分化。房价同比降幅收窄的积极信号持续显现，显示前期政策效果开始逐步渗透，市场长期下行压力有 所缓解。 "一手房市场表现相对较好，北京、上海新房价格环比分别涨0.2%、0.3%，上海更是实现同比5.6%的显 著增长，核心区优质改善房源入市与外围限购放松成为关键支撑。"张波指出，8、9月政策面的放松是 一线城市金九成色突出的直接拉动力，包括深圳分区放开限购、上海下调存量房贷利率、北京优化公积 金提取范围等相关政策，都直接拉动改善需求释放，支撑了一手房价和二手房成交量。 展望四季度，张波认为，政策宽松将 ...

现在回顾一下，从2020年开始，房地产市场就陷入了下行调整的态势（有些中小城市从2019年就开启 了）。后来，一波接着一波的楼市支持措施出台，也使得房地产市场出现了波段式的反弹行情，但最终 证明都是脉冲行情，没有持续下去，市场没有真正的反转。 既然从我们自己的房地产市场发展历史难以找到答案，那么不妨借鉴一下其他已经完整经历过房地产牛 熊周期的市场，或许能给我一些启发。目前主要三个市场可以参考一下： 一是参考American的房地产市场。American房地产市场每次的调整周期是4年左右。如果参照American 的市场，以2020年为起点，那么我们的房地产市场理应在2024年左右就应该结束下行调整。在去年年底 的时候，或许很多人确实有这种错觉，认为参照American的房地产调整时间，我们这边调整过4-5年就 会接近尾声了。而实际上，目前来看，这个基本上不可能了，我们的房地产市场已经调整5年多了，且 还没有调整结束的迹象。 二是参考Japan的房地产市场。Japan的房地产市场一调整就是20年，经济也低迷了30年。我们的房地产 市场也基本上不会这样，房地产对于我们依然非常重要，如果继续下行调整不稳的话，更多的 ...