美国国债收益率转为下行，10年期收益率现小幅下跌至4.411%。 ...

美联储会议纪要公布后，美国国债收益率变化不大；10年期国债收益率现跌6.5个基点，报4.352%。 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.423%, while the real yield also rose by 4 basis points to 2.073% [1] - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose by 0.20% to 97.70, making gold priced in dollars more expensive for overseas buyers [2] - Japan and South Korea are accelerating trade negotiations with the U.S. to soften President Trump's stance on new tariffs effective August 1 [3] Group 2 - Despite the announcement of new tariffs, interest in gold as a safe-haven asset has decreased, leading to a drop in gold prices by over 1% during North American trading [5] - Optimism regarding trade agreements has increased market risk appetite, which has suppressed gold prices [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has triggered a "sell signal," indicating that sellers have outnumbered buyers, with gold needing to break below $3,246 per ounce for further declines [6] Group 3 - Key resistance levels for gold are at $3,311, $3,324, and $3,340, while support levels are at $3,277, $3,253, and $3,249 [7] - The momentum for gold remains strong, with a quantitative cycle greater than three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [7] Group 4 - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. wholesale sales for May and EIA crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 [9]

周一（7月7日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率涨0.77个基点，报4.3794%，日内交投于 4.3201%-4.3972%区间，北京时间14:00之后呈现出持续、平滑的震荡上行行情，02:00之后略微回吐涨 幅。 两年期美债收益率涨1.46个基点，报3.8946%，日内交投于3.8468%-3.9008%区间。 ...

Group 1 - The House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful Act," which is expected to be signed by President Trump before Independence Day, aiming to extend non-permanent tax cuts from his first term [1] - The act is projected to increase the deficit by over $2 trillion over the next decade, with the 2024 deficit expected to reach 6.4% of GDP, the highest level during peacetime and non-recession periods [1] - Concerns about the lack of a plan to address the deficit may lead to higher U.S. Treasury yields and a steeper yield curve [1] Group 2 - The new fiscal stimulus plan is expected to provide timely support to the slowing U.S. economy, boosting consumer spending and business confidence [2] - Despite the support from the act, economic growth is still anticipated to remain below trend due to the impact of tariffs [2] - Inflation risks are skewed to the upside due to factors such as a weaker dollar, increased actual tariff rates, and potential energy price hikes from geopolitical conflicts [2]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds has narrowed again, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by less than 1 basis point, currently reported at 3.725% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that U.S. Treasury yields have slightly narrowed due to Powell's reiteration of the Federal Reserve's patient approach towards interest rates [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is maintaining a patient stance on interest rates, which influences market expectations [1] - U.S. Treasury yields are responding to the Fed's communication, indicating a potential stabilization in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury yields slightly narrowed their gains after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a patient stance on interest rates [1] Group 1 - The statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman indicates a commitment to maintaining current interest rates for the foreseeable future [1] - The market's reaction to the Fed's stance reflects investor sentiment regarding future economic conditions and monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered its forecast for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.10% due to a weakening outlook for the U.S. labor market [1] Group 1: Yield Forecast - UBS revised the 10-year Treasury yield expectation down from 4.20% to 4.10%, with a stop-loss level set at 4.40% [1] - The firm anticipates that if upcoming U.S. employment data is weak, including initial jobless claims and non-farm payroll data, Treasury yields may decline [1] Group 2: Market Insights - UBS is betting on a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, indicating an expansion in the difference between short-term and long-term yields [1] - Tradeweb data shows the latest 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.199%, having previously reached a two-month low of 4.191% [1]

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 5 basis points (BP) to 4.23%, marking a two-month low, down 19 BP from the end of May and nearly 35 BP from the end of 2024 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 3.72%, significantly down 52 BP from the 4.24% level at the end of 2024, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds widening by 17 BP in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - In the first quarter, uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies and a slowing U.S. economy heightened risk aversion, leading investors to flock to Treasuries, causing yields to decline. However, a sharp sell-off occurred in early April as hedge funds reduced leverage, raising liquidity concerns in the Treasury market [4] - Optimism in the market improved in June due to effective trade negotiations, while persistent low inflation reignited investor confidence in potential rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with most traders anticipating a reduction to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns that tariffs could raise inflation but indicated that if inflation remains controlled, rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later. He refrained from specifying a particular meeting for potential rate adjustments [4] - The general consensus among economists is that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with upcoming inflation data expected to reflect the true trend of price increases [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on National Debt - The U.S. Senate approved a procedural vote for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exceeding the House version by approximately $800 billion. The current national debt stands at $36.2 trillion [6] - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the bill would increase the debt burden and undermine the U.S.'s global standing, with actual debt growth potentially exceeding $4 trillion due to temporary tax cuts and expanded borrowing [7] Group 5: Future Debt Challenges - Apollo economists highlighted that inflation risks and a growing budget deficit are likely to exert upward pressure on Treasury yields in both the short and long term. The Treasury will need to refinance $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, with rising debt repayment costs [7]