前言 特朗普又出幺蛾子了！最近他把身边白宫职员米兰插进美联储理事会。 这是1951年美联储和财政部定下"央行独立"规矩以来，第一次有在职白宫的人踏进这个核心圈。 更扎心的是，米兰在议息会上直接反对美联储只降25个基点，喊着"该降50个"，明摆着顺着特朗普的胃 口来。 这下所有人都慌：美联储攒了百年的"独立人设"，是不是要栽在特朗普手里了？ 降息的底气是"假数据" 美联储说这次降息是应对着就业疲软，可 8 月新增就业就 2.2 万人、失业率涨去 2.9% 的账，其实算得 "糊里糊涂"。 因为就业数据本来不实！去年劳工部刚对 2024 年 4 月到今年 3 月的新增就业核减 91.1 万。 相当于之前统计的有一半岗位都是"编的"，51%的就业根本没发生过。 更邪乎的是，现在老百姓填统计局问卷的越来越少，政府没钱没人去核实，加上疫情后经济玩法全变， 以前的"企业出生-死亡模型"根本算不准现状。 数据还得滞后两三个月才出来，美联储做决策跟"摸瞎走路"有啥区别？就这还敢降息？简直是拿美国经 济当赌注。 政治之手伸进美联储 更可怕的是特朗普对美联储的"改造"。 以前美联储理事都是金融界的"老江湖"，讲专业不掺政治。 可现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in response to potential risks in the labor market, as indicated by various officials including John Williams, the President of the New York Federal Reserve [4][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and the need for tailored regulatory practices to ensure their stability [2][3]. - Powell did not address the current economic situation or monetary policy outlook during his recent speech [3]. Group 2: Labor Market and Interest Rates - John Williams expressed concern over the gradual cooling of the labor market, noting that while the unemployment rate has only slightly increased, job vacancies and turnover rates have decreased significantly [4]. - Williams indicated that the overall employment market continues to show moderate cooling without signs of accelerated deterioration, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariffs - Williams assessed that tariffs have raised import prices, contributing to inflation, but the impact is less than previously expected, estimating an increase of 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in inflation rates due to tariffs [4][5]. - He noted that core inflation appears to be gradually approaching the 2% target, with improvements in housing costs being particularly significant [4][5]. Group 4: Market Expectations - Investors widely anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with a 94.1% probability of this outcome according to CME FedWatch [7]. - The minutes from the September monetary policy meeting indicated that due to weaker-than-expected employment data and rising risks in the labor market, officials are leaning towards further rate cuts [7].

Core Points - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and customers [2] - New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts within the year to address potential risks of a labor market slowdown [3][4] - Market expectations indicate a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with recent meeting minutes reflecting concerns over weak employment data and inflation slightly above the Fed's target [6] Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership Statements - Powell stated that community banks play a crucial role in understanding local economic conditions and customer needs, and the Fed is committed to tailoring regulations to support their operations [2] - Williams noted a gradual cooling in the labor market over the past year, with job vacancies and turnover rates declining, but he does not foresee an imminent recession [3][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Interest Rate Expectations - Williams highlighted that tariffs have had a limited impact on inflation, estimating they raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, but overall inflation is stabilizing [3][4] - The market anticipates a 94.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with the Fed's recent meeting minutes indicating a consensus on the need for further rate reductions due to economic slowdown concerns [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in response to potential risks in the labor market and economic conditions, as indicated by various Fed officials [5][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the U.S. financial system, highlighting their close ties to local economies and commitment to understanding customer needs [4]. - Powell did not address the current economic situation or monetary policy in his recent remarks, focusing instead on the role of community banks [4]. - New York Fed President John Williams expressed support for further interest rate cuts this year to mitigate risks of a sharp slowdown in the labor market [6]. Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation Insights - Williams noted a gradual cooling in the labor market over the past year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decline in job vacancies, but he does not foresee an imminent recession [6][7]. - He estimated that tariffs have raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, but the overall inflationary pressure appears to be stabilizing [7]. - The Fed's recent meeting minutes indicated a consensus among officials for further rate cuts due to weaker-than-expected employment data and persistent inflation above the 2% target [10]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Investors anticipate a 94.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming October FOMC meeting, with minimal chances of maintaining current rates [9]. - The minutes from the September meeting revealed concerns about economic growth slowing and labor market weaknesses, reinforcing the likelihood of additional rate cuts [10].

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Macquarie analysts suggest that if the Federal Reserve makes a significant policy error under political pressure, gold prices could surge further, potentially achieving the best annual performance since the 1970s, with prices possibly reaching $4,000 [1] - TD Securities forecasts that gold prices may exceed $4,400 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by the Fed's easing policies and ongoing purchases by central banks and private funds, despite warnings of potential short-term corrections due to overbought conditions [2] - Citigroup indicates that the overall sentiment in the oil market remains bearish, with differing opinions on the extent of price declines, while geopolitical risks complicate large-scale short positions [3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Outlook - Rabobank maintains that despite challenges to the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset, it remains a primary choice for investors, supported by the depth of U.S. capital markets [4] - Deutsche Bank analysts believe that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes are unlikely to significantly impact the dollar's trajectory, as future economic data will play a more decisive role [5] - Danske Bank raises concerns about potential intervention in the foreign exchange market by the Bank of Japan due to the significant depreciation of the yen [6] Group 3: Commodity Market Trends - ANZ analysts report that recent supply disruptions have eroded market confidence, leading to a slight increase in copper prices, with Teck Resources lowering its production forecast [7] - Man Group warns that a weak dollar and high U.S. Treasury yields may deepen the trend of underperformance in the U.S. stock market, suggesting a rebalancing of asset allocations towards Europe and emerging markets [8] Group 4: Domestic Market Developments - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates that the central bank will conduct another six-month reverse repurchase operation in October, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance [9] - CITIC Securities highlights that the A-share market is likely to maintain an upward trend, driven by stable economic fundamentals and continued inflows of capital [10] - CITIC Securities also notes the acceleration of domestic AI computing capabilities, recommending attention to leading firms in this sector [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly Williams, supports further interest rate cuts this year to address potential risks of a sharp slowdown in the labor market [1][4]. Group 1: Labor Market Assessment - Williams highlighted a gradual cooling trend in the labor market over the past year, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a decline in job vacancies and turnover rates [2]. - He noted that the latest indicators for September show a continued moderate cooling in the overall labor market without signs of accelerated deterioration [2]. - The reasons for the slowdown in job growth are complex, involving both reduced demand for new employees and a decline in available labor supply, primarily due to decreased immigration [2]. Group 2: Inflation Outlook - Williams indicated that tariff impacts on import prices have been less severe than previously anticipated, estimating that tariffs have raised inflation by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points [3]. - He observed that core inflation is gradually approaching the 2% target, with improvements in housing costs being particularly notable [3]. - There are no signs of second-round effects from tariffs on inflation, and stable inflation expectations alongside normal supply chain indicators are present [3]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Stance - Despite low unemployment and stable consumption, Williams maintains that monetary policy remains moderately tight, reflecting economic performance relative to maximum employment and price stability goals [4]. - He supports further interest rate cuts this year, contingent on economic data developments, with expectations of inflation rising slightly to around 3% and a gradual increase in the unemployment rate [4]. Group 4: Commitment to Independence - Williams defended the independence of the Federal Reserve, emphasizing its importance in achieving economic goals and the responsibility of its staff to maintain this independence [5][6]. - He reiterated that decisions made by the Federal Reserve are based on data analysis rather than political considerations [6].

他在周三接受英国媒体采访时说："所有这些事情都会引发很多我们不知道如何回答的问题，"他强调 说，美国股市面临的过热风险正在增加。 戴蒙还表达了对通货膨胀的轻微担忧，但尽管特朗普政府批评美联储主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔，他仍对美联 储的独立性充满信心。 戴蒙上个月对美国经济前景表示谨慎，他警告说，关税、移民、地缘政治以及唐纳德-特朗普总统的税 收和支出政策的全面影响因其长期周期而仍不确定。 摩根大通首席执行官杰米-戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）警告称，未来六个月至两年内美国股市大幅回调的风险 加大。 戴蒙说："我比其他人更担心这一点，"他补充说，"有很多事情 "造成了不确定的气氛，并指出了包括 地缘政治紧张局势、财政支出和全球再军事化在内的风险因素。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，金价上涨的核心驱动因素——美国政府债务问题，以 及去美元化交易的中长期逻辑依然存在，这决定了黄金将继续保持上涨格局。同时，美联储独立性问题 从长期来看仍有进一步发酵的可能，一旦与其他因素形成共振，将推动金价继续上扬。 今天上午，有色金属板块大涨，贵金属板块涨势最强，四川黄金、山东黄金涨停。 工业金属板块中，云南铜业、江西铜业等个股涨停。能源金属板块中，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业等个股大 涨。稀土永磁板块中，包钢股份、北方稀土等个股大涨。 国庆假期期间，现货黄金价格持续上行，屡创历史新高。10月8日，现货黄金价格首次突破4000美元/盎 司关口，引发市场热议。 国家外汇管理局10月7日发布的数据显示，9月末我国黄金储备为7406万盎司，环比增加4万盎司，为我 国央行连续第11个月增持黄金。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection process for the next Federal Reserve Chair has concluded, with President Trump set to choose from four leading candidates amid concerns over the Fed's independence and potential interest rate cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Candidate Selection Process - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin completed the final round of interviews for the Federal Reserve Chair candidates, which included 11 individuals [1]. - The candidates were rigorously questioned for two hours on their views regarding interest rate policies and the exit strategy from quantitative easing [1]. - The final candidates include Kevin Warsh, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, and external candidate Rick Rieder, who performed notably well in interviews [1][2]. Group 2: Focus on Federal Reserve Reforms - Mnuchin emphasized the need for candidates to address structural reforms within the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding its balance sheet and the perceived overreach of its powers [2]. - Candidates were asked about their opinions on Mnuchin's recent article advocating for comprehensive reforms and criticizing quantitative easing as an experimental monetary policy [1][2]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Concerns - The ongoing turmoil at the Federal Reserve has raised concerns about its independence, especially following Trump's appointment of allies and attempts to dismiss certain board members [3][4]. - Market volatility has increased due to the administration's repeated attacks on the Fed's traditional independence in setting interest rates, leading to speculation that the next chair may pursue more aggressive rate cuts [3].

英国央行警告称，全球市场“突然调整”的风险越来越大。如果投资者对AI前景或美联储独立性的信心下降，全球金融市场可能会暴跌。从某些指标来看，美国股市的股价估值与科网泡沫高峰期的估值相似。英国央行金融政策委员会也指出，美联储信誉的削弱将对美国政府债券造成影响。 ...