Core Points - The U.S. stock market indices experienced an overall increase on September 19, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.05%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.19%, and the Nasdaq Composite gaining 0.34% [1][1][1] - The Nasdaq has shown a significant year-to-date increase of over 16% [1][1][1] Index Performance - Dow Jones Industrial Average: Current price is 46,164.85 with a year-to-date increase of 8.51% [1][1] - S&P 500: Current price is 6,644.67 with a year-to-date increase of 12.97% [1][1] - Nasdaq Composite: Current price is 22,547.38 with a year-to-date increase of 16.76% [1][1]

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets have outperformed US stocks this year primarily due to strong domestic retail investor participation rather than significant foreign capital inflows [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The performance of emerging markets is driven by local retail investors, despite downward adjustments in corporate profit expectations and concerns over potential US tariffs [1] - Investor focus has shifted towards popular sectors such as AI and technology, contributing to an overall optimistic market sentiment [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Attention should be paid to potential risks such as a slowdown in the US economy and global growth deceleration, alongside the positive effects of easing inflation and monetary policy outside the US [1] - If multiple cyclical factors align, including a faster US economic slowdown compared to other countries, declining real interest rates in the US, and a significant depreciation of the dollar, emerging markets are expected to outperform US stocks within the next 6 to 12 months [1] - This anticipated outperformance is viewed as cyclical rather than structural [1]

Core Viewpoint - Renowned strategist Ed Yardeni has raised his year-end target for the S&P 500 index from 6,600 to 6,800, suggesting a 25% chance that it could reach 7,000 during the year [1] Summary by Categories Market Outlook - The new target indicates a potential increase of 4.1% from the recent closing price of 6,532 [1] - The optimistic outlook is attributed to stable inflation data and expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the US stock market opened higher and continued to rise, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1% during the day, setting a new historical high [1]

Report Summary Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened 145 points higher but then declined, closing down 284 points or 1.1% at 25,058 points. The H-share Index fell 112 points or 1.3% to 8,937 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 104 points or 1.8% to 5,578 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$302.233 billion [1]. - A-share market indices declined significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 47 points or 1.25% to 3765 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 353 points or 2.83% to 12118 points, and the ChiNext Index down 123 points or 4.25% to 2776 points [1]. - U.S. stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 350 points or 0.8% to 45,621 points, the S&P 500 Index increased 53 points or 0.8% to 6,502 points (a new closing high), and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 209 points or 1% to 21,707 points [2]. Policy and News - The People's Bank of China conducted 7-day reverse repurchase operations worth RMB212.6 billion on September 4, with an operating rate of 1.4%. There were RMB416.1 billion of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of RMB203.5 billion. The central parity rate of the RMB against the U.S. dollar was raised by 56 points to 7.1052 [1]. - U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday to implement a trade agreement with Japan. Under the agreement, the U.S. will impose a maximum 15% tariff on most Japanese goods, including automobiles and parts [2]. Hong Kong Stock Exchange Data - The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388.HK) reported that the average daily trading volume in August 2025 reached HK$279.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 192%. The average daily trading volume for the first eight months of the year was HK$248.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 132%. There were 59 new listings in the first eight months, up 37% from 43 in the same period in 2024. The IPO fundraising amount in the Hong Kong stock market reached HK$134.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 579% [2].

Market Performance - The US stock market indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 0.55%, the S&P 500 down by 0.69%, and the Nasdaq decreasing by 0.82%. In contrast, the Golden Dragon Index, which reflects the performance of Chinese concept stocks, rose by 0.52% [1]. A-share and Hong Kong Market - The A-share market could not maintain its upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 0.45% to close at 3,858 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.14% to 12,553 points, marking a halt after three consecutive rises. The total trading volume in both markets reached 2.9 trillion RMB [2]. - The Hong Kong stock market also showed weakness, with the Hang Seng Index initially rising over 100 points but later declining by more than 200 points to a low of 25,416 points, ultimately closing at 25,496 points, down by 0.47%. The Tech Index closed at 5,728 points, down by 1.2%, with a total trading volume of 328 billion HKD [2]. - Notable declines were observed in technology stocks, with Alibaba falling by 1.75%, Meituan down by 1.9%, and JD.com decreasing by 1.5%. Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC saw a drop of over 4.6%, while Sunny Optical and China Hongqiao also experienced declines exceeding 3% [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices surpassed 3,500 USD, reaching a historical high. However, gold mining stocks showed mixed performance, with Lingbao Gold and Zhaojin Gold rising by 1.6% and 2.1%, respectively, while Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining both fell by over 1.7% [2]. Market Outlook - Despite the overall market decline, the drop was relatively limited, and investors are expected to continue monitoring A-share performance. The Hang Seng Index remains above the 10-day (25,335 points) and 20-day moving averages (25,239 points), which could support a challenge to last week's high of 25,918 points [3]. - Following Alibaba's surprising earnings report, there is optimism that the Hong Kong market may continue its upward trend and challenge the 10-day moving average level of 25,254 points [3].

Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.6% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.02% [1] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.32% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Nasdaq Composite Index falling by 1.6% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 1.02% [1] - The S&P 500 Index dropped by 1.32% [1]

#报告 瑞银：美股接下来怎么走？None (@None):None ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that signals for a rate cut in September have been established, but there remains a possibility for future adjustments depending on economic conditions [1] - The article raises questions about the driving forces behind a potential Federal Reserve rate cut and the implications if no cut occurs, highlighting the uncertainty in the market [1] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring three key variables that could influence the direction of U.S. stocks and bonds [1]