加拿大将根据美国墨西哥加拿大贸易协议（USMCA）对许多美国商品实施关税豁免。美元兑加元跌超 0.5%，报1.3838。加拿大股指维持大约1%的涨幅，持稳于美联储主席鲍威尔讲话后出现的盘中历史最 高位28340.87点附近。加拿大10年期国债收益率回升，几乎完全收复鲍威尔鸽派讲话之后（瞬间）出现 的失地。两年期加债收益率维持超过4个基点的跌幅，交投于2.69%一线，鲍威尔讲话后一度跌穿 2.67%。在美联储降息预期的带动下，道指上涨840点，涨幅扩大至1.87%，标普涨1.55%，纳指涨400点 涨幅1.9%，半导体指数涨3.5%，银行指数涨2.68%；罗素2000指数。 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.38% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 267 points, a decline of 0.6% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite dropped by 84 points, down 0.4% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearly completely reversed earlier gains [1] Economic Commentary - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, stated that a large number of agreements are close to being finalized, pending the determination of tariff rates by President Trump [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, highlighting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake, regardless of the market conditions [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices demonstrate a pattern of rapid reversals, indicating a volatile trading environment where both bulls and bears are actively engaged [5][9] - The article notes that gold experienced a significant rebound after breaking below the 3320 level, contrasting with previous trends where it had surged before declining [3][5] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the gold market is currently characterized by a "super sweep" phenomenon, where prices are subject to rapid changes both intraday and over longer periods [5] - Short-term support levels for gold are identified at 3336 and 3320-25, with resistance levels at 3356-58 and 3375-80, suggesting a cautious trading approach [7] - The commentary on silver suggests that it will continue to experience volatility, with key support at 37.3 and resistance at 38.4, indicating potential trading opportunities [7][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing division within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a rate cut in July rising significantly [2][5][11] - As of June 27, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July is 75.2%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 24.8% [2][5] - The internal division among Federal Reserve officials is evident, with 8 supporting two rate cuts and 7 opposing, indicating a close split [5][11] Group 2 - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. dollar, which fell below the 97 mark on June 26, reaching its lowest level since February 2022, with a daily decline of 0.72% [14] - The dollar has depreciated approximately 4% over the past month, reflecting a broader trend of "de-dollarization" and market skepticism about the U.S. economy [17] - Global stock indices are showing renewed trading sentiment, with the Nasdaq approaching its yearly high, influenced by expectations of a rate cut [18] Group 3 - Commodity prices are being preemptively adjusted in anticipation of a Federal Reserve rate cut, which is expected to stimulate the U.S. economy [19] - The article notes that the EIA inventory data has shown a continuous decline over five weeks, indicating stable market demand for oil [19] - The article emphasizes the importance of upcoming non-farm payroll data for gold trading, as the U.S. economy has shown signs of contraction, which may influence Federal Reserve decisions [19]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index maintained a gain of over 0.5% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 297 points, reflecting a gain of 0.69% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite increased by 116 points, showing a gain of 0.57% [1]

Core Insights - WTI crude oil futures increased by over 0.4%, reaching $74.14 [1] - Spot gold rose by 0.7%, approaching a daily high of $3,395.07 per ounce [1] - U.S. major indices turned negative, with the S&P 500 down over 0.1%, the Dow Jones down over 0.2%, and the Nasdaq down approximately 0.2% [1] - The Nasdaq Biotechnology Index fell by 1.1% [1] - Reports indicate that Iran is moving missile launchers, potentially preparing to target U.S. military forces [1]

Group 1: Gold Market - The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision signals a hawkish stance, leading to a drop in gold prices by approximately $20 on June 18, with prices falling below $3350, marking a one-week low [1] - The Fed maintained interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with an increasing number of officials supporting no rate cuts this year, which has negatively impacted gold prices [1] - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty, which may limit further declines in gold prices, depending on U.S. military actions and Iran's responses [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The potential U.S. military intervention in the Israel-Iran conflict is a significant factor, alongside a substantial drop in U.S. EIA crude oil inventories, which saw a decrease of 11.473 million barrels, indicating rising seasonal demand [3][6] - Oil prices experienced volatility but returned above $75, reflecting the impact of geopolitical tensions and inventory changes [3][5] - The technical outlook suggests that oil prices are in a range-bound movement, with a critical support level at $73.20; maintaining above this level could indicate a bullish trend [6] Group 3: U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index has broken through the downtrend line since May 13, regaining the 99 level, with a potential upward movement towards 100.50 if it surpasses the 99.40 resistance [7] Group 4: Dow Jones - The Dow Jones has shown signs of weakness after breaking below the uptrend line since April, with a support level at 41800; a breach could lead to further selling pressure [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices have retraced some of their gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite turning negative during the day, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 0.2% [1] Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has shown a reversal in its upward trend, indicating potential volatility in the market [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index has also experienced a decline, reflecting broader market concerns [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has managed to maintain a slight increase, suggesting some resilience among certain sectors [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices opened higher after the long weekend, with the S&P 500 index rising over 1.3% [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 396 points, reflecting a gain of more than 0.9% [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 334 points, showing a gain of 1.78% [1]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the US AAA credit rating, leading to a decline in US stock index futures and the dollar, while pushing up US Treasury yields [1][2] - The 30-year Treasury yield reached a critical level of 5%, and the dollar index fell below 101, dropping over 0.5% [1] - Despite concerns, some analysts suggest that the recent sell-off in US Treasuries and the dollar is a rare market reaction to perceived fiscal recklessness [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Williams noted that there is no significant evidence of large-scale capital outflows from US assets, despite market uncertainties [3] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley and HSBC view the downgrade as a potential buying opportunity, with expectations of a rebound in the S&P 500 index [4][5] - The correlation between stock returns and bond yields has decreased significantly, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4]