围绕人工智能、量子计算和新能源等投机性主题的炒作热潮正迅速降温。 自10月中旬以来，包括核能公司Oklo、量子计算公司IonQ和D-Wave Quantum、AI基础设施供应商 CoreWeave以及能源技术公司Bloom Energy在内的投机性股票，市值整体下跌了约33%。 市场转向的背后，是第三季度财报季的开启。当企业界开始公布实实在在的业绩时，投资者开始重新审 视那些与盈利能力关系不大甚至毫无关系的公司的高昂估值。 据FactSet的数据，高达82%的标普500指数成分股公司实现了超预期的盈利，这促使资金流向了基本面 稳健的价值型股票。 更重要的是，即便如甲骨文这样的科技巨头，也因其对"烧钱"客户的敞口而面临市场对其债务偿还能力 的质疑，这一信号终结了市场对处于AI生态边缘的小公司"一切都会完美"的定价幻想。 投机狂潮的急刹车 Oklo、D-Wave Quantum、CoreWeave、IonQ、Nebius、Cipher Mining、IREN、Rigetti Computing、 Tempus AI、POET Technologies、Bloom Energy、Plug Power和SoundHo ...

1、腾讯、京东等中概股财报超预期!中国资产大涨 重要程度：★★★★★ 11月13日，多家知名上市公司密集披露2025年第三季度财务报告，引发市场广泛关注。具体来看下： 腾讯控股第三季度业绩报告显示，公司实现营收1928.7亿元，同比增长15%;经营利润(Non-IFRS)725.7亿 元，同比增长18%。 京东集团三季度收入为2991亿元，同比增长14.9%，超出市场预期。三季度归属净利润53亿元。 中芯国际第三季度营收为171.62亿元，同比增长9.9%;净利润为15.1亿元，同比增长43.1%，盈利能力显著 提升。 哔哩哔哩第三季度净营业额总额为76.9亿元，同比增长5%;经调整净利润为7.86亿元，同比增长233%，盈 利能力大幅提升。 在财报发布后，京东和哔哩哔哩股价美股盘前均直线上涨，京东一度大涨超4%，哔哩哔哩一度大涨超 6%。 2、10月金融数据出炉，解读来了 重要程度：★★★★ 11月13日，中国人民银行发布10月金融数据。数据显示，10月M2和社会融资规模同比增速均保持在较高水 平，持续为经济回升向好创造适宜的货币金融环境;贷款规模保持合理增长，信贷结构持续优化。数据要点 如下： 截至202 ...

Macro Dynamics - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [2] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year [2] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [2] - A net cash injection of 728.4 billion yuan occurred in the first ten months of the year [2] Financial Regulation - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is set to release a revised "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and restructuring, including for tech enterprises [3] - The Bureau is collaborating with other departments to develop policies that promote high-quality development in technology insurance, providing better economic support for tech activities [3] Market Data - On November 13, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.73%, reaching a ten-year high, with over 100 stocks hitting the daily limit [9] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 2.55% [9] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.04 trillion yuan, an increase of 969 billion yuan from the previous trading day [9] Company Dynamics - China Pacific Insurance reported a premium income of 241.32 billion yuan for its life insurance subsidiary from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% [7] - Tencent Holdings announced third-quarter revenue of 192.87 billion yuan, a 15% year-on-year increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 19% [12] - Bilibili reported a third-quarter adjusted net profit of 786 million yuan, a significant increase of 233% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 7.69 billion yuan [14] - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a net profit growth of 41.1% year-on-year for the first three quarters, with revenue of 49.51 billion yuan [15] - Kanda New Materials announced the termination of its acquisition of North One Semiconductor due to unmet expectations in transaction progress [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 13.09 CNY [6][13]. Core Views - The company faced short-term pressure on performance due to temporary project delays, but has maintained a stable order book and is expected to achieve optimistic annual results with high-quality development [2][13]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.202 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 24.01%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -235 million CNY, indicating an expanded loss [13]. - The company is strategically positioning itself in the quantum security and quantum computing sectors, having made significant progress and launched products like quantum VPN, which enhances communication performance and reduces customer costs [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,124 million CNY, with a decline of 11.8% year-on-year, while a recovery is expected in 2025 with an estimated revenue of 3,056 million CNY, reflecting an 8.3% increase [4][14]. - The net profit for 2023 is forecasted at -371 million CNY, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2024, reaching 83 million CNY [4][14]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from -0.31 CNY in 2023 to 0.25 CNY by 2027 [4][14]. Business Segments - The intelligent computing cloud segment is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenue of 1.29 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 10.73% of total revenue, and an annual growth rate of approximately 10% [13]. - The company’s key industries, such as telecommunications and transportation, showed year-on-year growth of 13.14% and 18.73%, respectively, contributing to a stable business foundation [13]. - The quantum computing sector has seen the launch of several products and partnerships, indicating a forward-looking strategy that aligns with industry trends [13].

Group 1: Core Insights - IBM has introduced two experimental quantum chips, Loon and Nighthawk, which may enable machines to perform calculations based on quantum physics, addressing complex problems that traditional computing cannot solve [2][6] - The concept of "fault-tolerant quantum computing" is central to these developments, allowing systems to maintain accuracy despite computational errors, which has been a significant barrier to practical quantum computing [6][16] - The advancements signify a shift from "physical feasibility" to "engineering reliability" in quantum computing, with the potential to revolutionize various industries [6][16] Group 2: Quantum Computing Principles and Potential - Quantum computing aims to solve the long-standing question of how machines can compute certainty in uncertainty, utilizing quantum bits (qubits) that can exist in multiple states simultaneously, unlike traditional binary bits [7][9] - This capability allows quantum computers to perform tasks in a fraction of the time required by classical computers, with applications in pharmaceuticals, materials science, finance, and climate research [7][9] - A McKinsey report predicts that by 2035, 72% of tech executives and investors believe fault-tolerant quantum computing will achieve commercial viability, marking it as a potentially disruptive technology [8] Group 3: Global Quantum Race - IBM's breakthroughs have intensified the global competition in quantum computing, with major players like Google, Microsoft, and various research institutions making significant advancements [10][12] - Google plans to release a quantum chip named Willow, claiming it can perform calculations in 5 minutes that would take traditional supercomputers 10^24 years [13] - Microsoft is developing the Majorana 1 chip, which aims to create more stable qubits, potentially extending the lifespan of quantum information [14] Group 4: Challenges to Quantum Computing Adoption - Despite the progress, significant technical, economic, and ethical challenges remain before quantum computing can be widely adopted [16] - The operational requirements for quantum computers, such as maintaining near absolute zero temperatures, make large-scale deployment costly and complex [16] - The current investment in quantum computing exceeds $7 billion annually, but a stable profit model has yet to be established, with companies exploring "Quantum-as-a-Service" models [16] Group 5: Future Implications - The introduction of Loon and Nighthawk represents not just technological advancements but a potential redefinition of human computational capabilities [17] - Experts suggest that quantum computing could fundamentally change how machines operate, moving beyond human-like AI to a new form of intelligence that transcends traditional thinking [17]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is gaining momentum with significant advancements from both emerging companies and established tech giants like Google, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, and NVIDIA [2] - IBM is a leading player in the quantum computing space, recently unveiling its Quantum roadmap aimed at building a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum system called Quantum Starling by 2028 [3][5] Group 1: IBM's Quantum Developments - IBM launched the Nighthawk processor, which will be delivered to users by the end of this year and is expected to play a crucial role in achieving quantum advantage by the end of 2026 [5] - The Nighthawk processor features 120 superconducting qubits connected by 218 tunable couplers, allowing for 30% more complex circuits compared to its predecessor, Quantum Heron, while maintaining a low error rate [8] - IBM's Quantum Loon is described as an experimental processor that includes key components necessary for fault-tolerant quantum computing [7] Group 2: Software and Collaboration - IBM's new quantum software improves the accuracy of circuits with over 100 qubits by 24% and reduces the cost of obtaining precise results by over 100 times [8] - The company collaborates with institutions like Algorithmiq and Flatiron Institute to contribute experimental results to a new open community system for tracking claims of quantum advantage [8] - IBM's partnership with AMD demonstrates that classical computers can use qLDPC (quantum low-density parity-check) codes for real-time error decoding, enhancing the reliability of quantum computations [14] Group 3: Future Roadmap and Innovations - IBM's roadmap includes four generations of Nighthawk processors, with the next generation expected to offer up to 7,500 quantum gates by the end of 2026 and 10,000 gates the following year [11] - By 2028, systems based on Nighthawk are projected to include up to 15,000 two-qubit gates and connect over 1,000 qubits [11] - The advanced 300mm wafer fabrication facility in Albany, New York, is expected to double the development speed of IBM's quantum processors, significantly enhancing qubit connectivity and performance [16]

关于欧盟落后于美国和中国的分析已被广泛接受，这几乎成为流行文化的一部分。最令人担忧的是，欧 盟在一些将定义21世纪的关键技术领域也落后于其他国家：人工智能、半导体和量子计算。这场竞赛实 际上是在北京和华盛顿之间展开的。欧盟扮演着一个非常特殊的角色：努力抗拒。 最近，美国关键技术领域的领军企业之一英伟达的首席执行官黄仁勋发表一份措辞明确的声明："中国 在人工智能领域只比美国落后几纳秒。"与此同时，一个社交媒体账号借用一个经典"梗"，将欧盟比作 一名巴黎咖啡馆的顾客，悠闲地啜饮着咖啡。 来源：参考消息 【今日导读】最近，美国关键技术领域的领军企业之一英伟达的首席执行官黄仁勋发表一份措辞明确的 声明："中国在人工智能领域只比美国落后几纳秒。"与此同时，一个社交媒体账号借用一个经典"梗"， 将欧盟比作一名巴黎咖啡馆的顾客，悠闲地啜饮着咖啡。 这是一种讽刺，但它正渗透到欧洲公众的意识中：欧洲是一个远离争夺科技领导地位的残酷竞争的地 方，而这在美国等一些国家看来则是完全缺乏雄心壮志。奇怪的是，大西洋两岸的人们似乎都认同这种 讽刺：对美国人来说，它反映了欧洲的傲慢和脱离现实，最终会付出高昂代价；而对欧洲人来说，它反 映了一 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. House is set to end a historic government shutdown, leading to a four-day rise in the Dow Jones, which has reached a new high of 48,000 points, while tech stocks have declined again, with the Nasdaq and small-cap stocks lagging for the second consecutive day [1] - The S&P 500 index closed up 0.06%, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.68%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.26%. The European STOXX 600 index rose by 0.71% [2] Group 2: Company Performance - Nvidia saw a slight increase of 0.33%, while Meta dropped nearly 3%, leading the decline among the tech giants. AMD surged by 9%, leading the S&P 500. Following earnings reports, Circle plummeted by 12%, while Cisco rose over 7% [3] - Foxconn (Hon Hai) reported a 17% year-on-year increase in net profit for Q3, exceeding expectations, with an 11% revenue growth, driven by strong demand for AI servers [5] Group 3: Industry Insights - OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast, shifting from a "supply shortage" to a "supply surplus" for Q3, resulting in a 4% drop in oil prices [4] - The heavy truck market in China saw sales of 106,200 units in October, a 1% month-on-month increase and a 60% year-on-year increase, marking a seven-month consecutive growth trend [11] - Sulfuric acid prices have surged, currently at 773 RMB/ton, a 111% increase from January 21, 2023, and a 740% increase from May 26, 2023, attributed to a combination of cost pressures and supply-demand imbalances [11] - The PCB industry is expected to reach a global market size of $96.8 billion by 2025, with China contributing over 50% of the output, driven by technological upgrades and expanding applications in AI, 5G, and smart vehicles [13] Group 4: Strategic Developments - Samsung is in discussions with large overseas clients regarding supply volumes for next year and is considering a price increase of over 20% to 30% [6] - AI startup Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in building data centers in the U.S. [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the need to prevent significant market fluctuations [8]

Group 1 - The lithium niobate crystal has multiple photoelectric effects, strong tunability, stable physical and chemical properties, and a wide optical transmission range, making it widely used in SAW filters, optical modulators, phase modulators, optical isolators, and electro-optic Q-switches [2] - Thin-film lithium niobate materials are becoming an important technological direction due to their higher integration and better performance, with domestic manufacturers having a competitive advantage in the LNOI field [2] - The lithium niobate industry chain includes upstream lithium niobate crystals and thin film materials, electron beam writing, and DUV lithography equipment, as well as midstream thin-film lithium niobate modulator chips and devices, and downstream applications, with domestic manufacturers participating in all segments [2] Group 2 - Guangku Technology focuses on products including lithium niobate modulators and possesses ultra-high-speed optical communication modulator chips and modules, which are core optical devices for long-distance coherent optical transmission and ultra-high-speed data centers [3] - Guoxin Technology has established joint laboratories for quantum chips with well-known companies in the quantum field, including Anhui Wentian Quantum Technology Co., Ltd. and its subsidiary Hefei Silizhen Chip Technology Co., Ltd. [3]

Group 1 - The stock market has experienced increased volatility since late October, but growth-style assets remain a key focus for capital, influenced by the Federal Reserve's second interest rate cut of the year and China's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing support for emerging technology sectors [1] - The market is characterized by a structural differentiation, with funds shifting towards specific segments like storage and energy, while previously popular sectors like optical modules are in a consolidation phase [1] - The growth style is overall dominant this year, but leading sub-industries vary at different stages, with technology and energy sectors taking turns in leading performance [1] Group 2 - Chen Yunzhong, a mid-career fund manager with nearly 10 years in the securities industry and over 4 years of investment experience, has achieved significant returns, including a 46.82% return in the Guangfa Small Cap Select A fund, surpassing the benchmark by 36 percentage points [2] - His management strategy involves dividing growth tracks into traditional and emerging growth, focusing on sectors with strong certainty and leveraging top companies to capture industry beta and stock alpha [2] - Traditional growth sectors include "new semi-military" areas such as new energy, semiconductors, and military industry, characterized by mature industry development and specific cycles [2] Group 3 - Emerging growth sectors are in the early stages of industrialization, focusing on technologies like embodied intelligence, new storage and computing, satellite internet, quantum computing, and solid-state batteries, which are also highlighted in the national technology plan [3] - Chen Yunzhong emphasizes the need for tactical trading in these volatile assets, successfully timing entry and exit points to capture upward trends while avoiding significant downturns [3] - Current promising growth directions include computing power, storage, edge innovation, brand internationalization, robotics, satellite internet, and solid-state batteries, with a particular focus on domestic cloud service providers expected to increase capital expenditures significantly in the coming months [3]