专题：财经年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛 《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛于2025年12月18-20日在北京举行。日斗投 资董事长王文指出，2024年可视为本轮牛市的第一年，2025年进入第二年。其所在公司过去六年复合收 益率达25%，2025年管理规模增长两倍，业绩盈利40%，但市场整体仍缺乏投资热情，这恰恰印证了牛 市早期的典型特征。行情仅在专业投资者群体中悄然推进，尚未形成全民参与热潮。 他强调，牛市的发展如同浪潮，必然会逐步覆盖所有投资者，而当前的"认知差"正是未来行情的重要支 撑。从全球视角来看，其他国家股市普遍处于高位，中国股市刚从3000点区间迈向4000点，仍处于估值 洼地，未来指数有望创历史新高，这也是对中国改革开放以来发展成就的一次市场确认。 针对热门的AI领域，王文表示，AI是重大技术浪潮，但投资需警惕"重概念、轻应用"的陷阱，商业投资 的核心是回报，缺乏应用落地的技术炒作难以持续。历史上，大量大模型项目在头部产品出现后被淘 汰，风投领域"赔钱者沉默"的现象掩盖了行业风险。 他建议，投资AI应聚焦应用端具备实力的企业如腾讯、阿里等，但同时提 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 机械设备行业点评报告 西门子海南总装基地落地，协同国产零部件 扩产缓解燃机交付压力 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 投资建议： 推荐高额燃机订单持续落地【杰瑞股份】、聚焦高技术壁垒透平叶片 国产替代【应流股份】、燃机缸体与环类主力供应商【豪迈科技】、卡特 彼勒供应商【联德股份】。 ◼ 风险提示： AI 投资不及预期、国际贸易摩擦、国产替代不及预期。 ◼ 事件：西门子新基地落地海南，完善燃机一体化流程 2025/12/18 官方公众号公布西门子能源在儋州设立海南公司，公司预 计于 2027 年实现其首个中国燃机总装基地及服务中心建成投运，形成覆 盖总装、应用验证、备件、运维的一体化体系，完善公司全球燃机布局。 海南自贸港全岛封关落地，通关及贸易投资便利度显著提升，具备为高端 装备制造、工程建设提供稳定环境的条件。西门子新基地将支撑海南清洁 能源岛建设，并依托本土供应链与制造能力，在燃机领域缩短交付周期、 提升项目效率，抬升海南全球能源产业链地位。 ◼ 燃机龙头产能饱和，总装&零部件扩产有望缓解交付瓶颈 燃气轮机行业核心利润 ...

Employment Data Overview - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the anticipated 4.4%[2] - October saw a decrease of 105,000 non-farm jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 157,000 jobs in the government sector[4] Sector Performance - The private sector added 52,000 jobs in October, while November saw a rebound with 69,000 jobs added, driven mainly by the education and healthcare sectors[4][6] - The service production sector contributed significantly, with 50,000 jobs added in November, while the goods-producing sector added 19,000 jobs[8] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate of 4.6% in November is the highest in nearly four years, indicating challenges in the labor market[14] - The labor force participation rate increased, contributing to upward pressure on the unemployment rate due to limited job absorption capacity[14] Wage Trends - Average wage growth has slowed, with service sector wages increasing by approximately 3.4% year-on-year, indicating a decrease in inflationary pressure from wages[20] - The goods-producing sector's wages remain relatively high at around 4.0% year-on-year, but show signs of stabilization[20] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market slightly raised expectations for a rate cut in January, with a 26% probability noted[23] - The Federal Reserve is expected to consider a 25 basis point rate cut in March, contingent on further employment data and inflation trends[23]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a net job loss of 105,000 in October and a modest gain of 64,000 in November, indicating a "low hiring-low layoff" environment [2][3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, with a broader measure of unemployment reaching 8.7% [2][3] - Retail sales growth has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 3.47% in October, down from 4.18% in September, and a month-on-month change of 0% [1][3] Group 2 - The affordability crisis in the U.S. is highlighted by the long-term inflation that has eroded consumer purchasing power, with only 18 months of wage growth exceeding inflation from 2020 to 2023 [4] - Household debt has reached a historical high of $18.59 trillion, with significant increases in mortgage and consumer loans, indicating ongoing economic pressure [5][6] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma in its monetary policy, balancing between lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy and the risk of increasing inflation [6]

Group 1 - The "Fenghuo Cup" private equity selection event organized by Changcheng Securities has attracted over 600 private equity institutions and more than 1,600 products since its launch in October 2025, covering seven core strategies including stock, index enhancement, neutral, arbitrage, CTA, bond, and combination strategies [1] - The event aims to provide ample time for participating institutions to showcase their investment capabilities, with registration open until June 2026 [1] - The initiative is part of Changcheng Securities' effort to create a supportive ecosystem for quality private equity growth, offering diverse resources and platforms for trading execution, investment support, and financing solutions [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, the current economic cycle is perceived to be in a relatively early stage, with policies aimed at supply-side reform generating positive expectations, although actual progress remains to be verified [2] - The consensus among fund managers is that there are still reasonably valued targets in the market, such as the food and beverage index's price-to-earnings ratio and the Hang Seng Index's price-to-book ratio, both at historical lows [2] - Investment opportunities in the technology sector are highlighted, particularly in AI, with a focus on hardware that has reasonable valuations and is part of new major industry chains [2] Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, it is anticipated that more aggressive monetary and fiscal policies will be implemented, with potential further declines in risk-free interest rates and an increase in the value of credit bond allocations [3] - The stock market outlook favors relatively undervalued sectors such as banking, food and beverage, and consumer electronics, alongside technology leaders in AI chips, semiconductor equipment, and computing power [3] - The difficulty of stock selection and timing is expected to increase, making industry ETFs a more cost-effective option for investment [3]

今年1-11月，A股、港股、美股虽然在年内都一度出现过较大回撤，但最终累计涨幅均表现不俗。其中，上证指数涨幅超16%，深证成指涨幅超24%，创 业板指涨幅超42%。港股的恒生指数、恒生科技涨幅分别超28%、25%；美股的道琼斯指数涨超12%，纳斯达克指数涨近21%。 | 证券市场 | 指数名称 | 今年1-11月 涨跌幅 | 今年1-11月 最大涨幅 | 今年1-11月 最大回撤 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 上证指数 | 16.02% | 30.13% | -9.71% | | | 深证成指 | 24.67% | 46.57% | -14.98% | | | 创业板指 | 42.54% | 83.95% | -20.79% | | | 沪深300 | 15.04% | 32.27% | -10.49% | | | 中证500 | 22.81% | 42.78% | -13.80% | | | 中证1000 | 23.10% | 39.15% | -16.87% | | | 中证2000 | 31.65% | 45.66% | -19.65% | | | 恒 ...

Core Viewpoint - The key to uncovering AI investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market lies in connecting different markets while maintaining a global industrial chain perspective. The unique value of the Hong Kong market is its combination of global giants and hidden champions serving the global market [1]. Group 1: Main Investment Lines - The first line focuses on Hong Kong internet giants restructuring through AI, which are compared to US tech giants. These companies possess vast data, mature ecosystems, and strong cash flows, and their AI commercialization progress is often underestimated but is rapidly materializing [1]. - The second line highlights hidden champions benefiting from global AI demand. Hong Kong hosts companies that align with global trends and are often overlooked by investors, such as a global GaN chip supplier and a leading AI advertising platform [2]. - The third line emphasizes the acceleration of China's AI ecosystem, with Hong Kong gathering leading companies in humanoid robots and autonomous driving. These companies' technological routes are highly aligned with domestic market demands, and a global perspective remains crucial [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economy maintained a stable state in November 2025, with obvious structural improvements, but the endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The report maintains the judgment that the economic growth rate in 2026 will still be positive, with a possible pattern of being lower in the first half and higher in the second half [4]. - In the equity market, market sentiment may continue to improve, and the market may show a volatile upward trend. In the bond market, volatility may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. In the commodity market, the differentiation intensifies, and attention should be paid to gold, copper, and aluminum priced internationally [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview of the November 2025 Economy - The economy maintained a stable state with obvious structural improvements, including the continuous recovery of CPI, prominent economic kinetic energy switching, strengthened export competitiveness, high - level production, steady growth of industrial enterprise profits, and highlights in service consumption [5]. - The endogenous momentum needs to be consolidated, and the recovery trend remains to be observed. The "subsidy withdrawal" effect has a significant impact, economic data still needs trend improvement, the endogenous growth momentum needs to be strengthened, and real estate still has a certain drag on the economy [6]. 2. Interpretation of November 2025 Economic Sub - item Data - Manufacturing PMI increased slightly, and service PMI declined. The new order index was the main contributor to the increase in PMI. The PMI of high - tech manufacturing was above the boom - bust line. The service business activity index was below the boom - bust line for the first time since September 2024. The construction industry PMI improved [7][8]. - Fixed - asset investment continued to decline under the drag of real estate. Real estate development investment dragged down the growth rate of fixed - asset investment by 3.4 percentage points. In the future, the drag of real estate on fixed - asset investment is expected to shrink, and infrastructure investment may stabilize, while manufacturing investment should focus on emerging directions [9]. - Service consumption had highlights, while commodity consumption was highly differentiated. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased slightly. Service consumption, such as catering, maintained growth, while commodity consumption, such as automobiles and home appliances, declined due to the "subsidy withdrawal" effect [10]. - Exports showed strong resilience, with prominent structural highlights and a steady expansion of the surplus. In November, the export growth rate rebounded. The exports to Africa performed outstandingly, and the product structure was optimized. Exports are expected to be a major bright spot in the economy in 2026 [11][12]. - Real estate sales continued to bottom out. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased year - on - year, and the market was still in the process of destocking. The prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [13]. - The production end remained stable. In November, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The added value of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries grew faster than the overall level [14]. - At the price end, CPI continued to rise, and PPI was stable and waiting to rise. In November, CPI increased year - on - year, and PPI increased month - on - month. Consumption - end prices showed a recovery trend, and production - end prices were characterized by differentiation [14]. - In November, the overall social financing was stable, and credit increased less year - on - year. Government bond financing supported the growth of social financing, while the demand of the resident sector was weak, and the demand of the enterprise sector improved marginally [18]. - The profits of industrial enterprises increased steadily. From January to October 2025, the cumulative profit growth rate of large - scale industrial enterprises increased for three consecutive months. In the future, policies are expected to promote the growth of industrial enterprise profits [19][20]. 3. Future Economic Outlook - Overseas, the main narrative is the soft landing of the economy, but there are still uncertainties in the structure. The US economy is expected to maintain a positive trend, but there are risks such as the differentiation between the real and virtual economies, the widening wealth gap, and the differentiation between AI and non - AI investments [21]. - At the domestic policy level, in 2026, the macro - policy will be more proactive. Fiscal policy will be more positive and pay attention to robustness and sustainability, and monetary policy will be moderately loose, with possible reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [21]. - In terms of the economy, the economic growth rate in 2026 is expected to be lower in the first half and higher in the second half. The endogenous recovery momentum of domestic demand needs to be consolidated, and exports are expected to perform well [22]. 4. Investment Suggestions - Equity market: In the short term, the market may show a volatile upward trend. Investors should focus on sectors with positive event catalysts, sectors benefiting from the recovery of the equity market, sectors benefiting from the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the supplementary rise of the large - consumption sector [24]. - Bond market: The volatility of ultra - long bonds may increase, and it is not recommended to buy at the bottom in the short term. Attention should be paid to the expected term of fiscal bond issuance and the adjustment of the risk assessment indicators of large banks [25]. - Commodity market: The differentiation intensifies. For precious metals, the long - bull foundation of gold remains. For crude oil, the price trend may continue to be weak. For internationally priced non - ferrous metals, the price is in a medium - term upward channel. For commodities priced by the domestic fundamentals, the prices of relevant "anti - involution" varieties will enter a wide - range volatile trend [26].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a clear slow bull characteristic in 2023, with significant returns from sectors like technology growth and resource cycles, leading to an overall increase of over 15% in major indices from January to November, with the ChiNext Index leading at 42.54% [2][3]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Performance - The three major A-share indices have all risen over 15% from January to November, with the ChiNext Index achieving a remarkable 42.54% increase [2]. - A-share indices exhibit lower volatility compared to the Hang Seng Index and Nikkei Index, aligning with the characteristics of a slow bull market [2]. Index Data - The performance data for major indices from January to November is as follows: - CSI 300: 15.04% return, 15.69% annualized volatility, 127.80% turnover rate, 10.49% maximum drawdown - Shanghai Composite: 16.02% return, 14.09% annualized volatility, 245.70% turnover rate, 9.71% maximum drawdown - Shenzhen Component: 24.67% return, 21.71% annualized volatility, 394.74% turnover rate, 14.98% maximum drawdown - ChiNext Index: 42.54% return, 30.21% annualized volatility, 576.46% turnover rate, 20.79% maximum drawdown [3]. Fund Performance - The average return for 2049 subjective long-only products from January to November is 34.39%, significantly outperforming most A-share indices [3]. - Among the 197 subjective long-only products from billion-yuan private equity firms, the average return is 23.72%, with 94.42% of products showing positive returns [4]. Top Performing Funds - The top three subjective long-only products from billion-yuan private equity firms are: 1. Yuanxin Investment's "Yuanxin China Active Growth C" managed by Wang Aoye 2. Jiuku Investment's "Jiuku Value Selection No. 1" managed by Jiang Yunfei 3. Wangzheng Asset's "Wangzheng Win-Win No. 3" managed by Wang Penghui [4][5]. Sector Focus - The focus on gold investment is highlighted, with managers like Guan Xin from Xishirun Investment emphasizing a new "reflexive" cycle in gold prices, suggesting a strategic allocation towards gold as a long-term investment [11][12]. - The performance of funds in the 50-100 billion category shows an average return of 29.83%, with 95.49% of products yielding positive returns [8]. Emerging Trends - The report indicates a trend of adjusting portfolios to optimize returns, with managers actively seeking undervalued quality companies while maintaining a core and satellite investment strategy [7].

亚太市场全线下跌。 12月16日，亚太市场全线下跌，截至发稿，日经225指数跌1.26%，韩国综合指数跌1.59%，富时新加坡海峡指数跌0.32%，澳洲标普200指数跌0.40%。 美东时间12月15日，美联储理事米兰表示，他认为美联储的政策立场过于紧缩，应该加快降息步伐。他在出席哥伦比亚大学的活动时指出，美联储的政策 立场对经济而言过于紧缩，通胀前景良好，而劳动力市场出现了一些预警信号。由于劳动力市场降温，服务业通胀不太可能面临上行压力。 谈到劳动力市场，米兰表示："经验表明，劳动力市场恶化可能发生得很快，而且是非线性的，并且难以逆转。部分原因是货币政策存在几个季度的滞后 效应，因此，正如我所主张的，更快地放松政策将适当地使我们更接近中性立场。" 米兰当天对媒体透露，在明年1月底理事的任期届满后，他可能会继续留在美联储，直到新的理事任命获得确认，有人接替他的职位。 同日，美国纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美联储货币政策目前处于良好位置，随着就业市场降温，通胀有望趋于缓和。他在新泽西银行家协会于泽西城举 行的一场活动上表示，随着近期政策放松，负责制定利率的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已将"略具限制性的货币政策立 ...