中银证券近日发布化工行业周报：本周（07.28-08.03）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中， 共有39个品种价格上涨，31个品种价格下跌，30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品 月均价环比上涨，60%的产品月均价环比下跌，另外7%产品价格持平。本周（07.28-08.03） 国际油价小幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅3.33%；布伦特原油 期货价格收于69.67美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅1.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 行业动态 本周（07.28-08.03）均价跟踪的100个化工品种中，共有39个品种价格上涨，31个品种 价格下跌，30个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中33%的产品月均价环比上涨，60%的产品月均 价环比下跌，另外7%产品价格持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是环氧氯丙烷（华东）、 液氨（河北新化）、轻质纯碱（华东）、软泡聚醚（华东散水）、石脑油（新加坡）；周均 价跌幅居前的品种分别是NYMEX天然气、天然橡胶（上海）、DMF（华东）、醋酸乙烯 （华东）、顺丁橡胶（华东）。 本周（07.28-08.03）国际油价小幅上涨，WTI原油期货价格收于67.30美元/桶，收盘价 ...

Group 1 - The domestic semiconductor backend testing equipment market has significant room for domestic production improvement, with the localization rate for storage testers expected to be only 8% by 2025 and around 9% for SOC testers by 2027 [1] - The rapid development of AI chips and HBM imposes higher requirements on testing processes, as AI chips utilize advanced processes and complex structures, leading to longer testing times and increased precision requirements [1] - The domestic testing equipment market size is projected to grow from 11.62 billion yuan in 2022 to 26.74 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 12.6%, where testing machines account for 61.9% of the market, with SOC and storage testers being the main segments [1] Group 2 - The Integrated Circuit ETF (159546) tracks the Integrated Circuit Index (932087), which selects listed companies involved in IC design, manufacturing, and packaging testing from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese integrated circuit industry [1] - The Chip ETF (512760) tracks the China Semiconductor Chip Index (990001), which is compiled by China Securities Index Co., Ltd., selecting listed companies involved in key segments of the semiconductor industry chain to reflect the overall performance of the semiconductor chip industry [2] - Investors without stock accounts can consider various fund options related to integrated circuits and semiconductor industries, including the Guotai Zhongzheng All Index Integrated Circuit ETF and the Guotai CES Semiconductor Chip Industry ETF [2]

Market Overview - Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached new highs during the day but closed with reduced gains, with S&P 500 up 0.14%, Dow down 0.04%, and Nasdaq up 0.38% [1] - Google shares rose by 2.7%, leading the tech giants, while Cleveland-Cliffs steel stock surged nearly 13% due to record steel shipments in Q2 [2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.28%, with stocks like JD.com, Bilibili, and Alibaba seeing declines of up to 1.5% [2] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 10-year yield dropping over 3 basis points, and the dollar weakened by 0.6% [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced a broad increase due to a weakening dollar, with gold rising nearly 1.5% to around $3,400 and silver increasing over 2% [3] Technology Developments - GPT-5 is expected to be released within two weeks, and GPT-6 may already be in training, with significant GPU resources allocated [4] - Google's Gemini advanced version received official certification from IMO for 2025, focusing on natural language end-to-end reasoning [6] Semiconductor Industry - SK Hynix is discussing expanding the production scale of its HBM3E 8-layer products, with expected shipments exceeding initial forecasts due to recent export control relaxations [11] - HBM technology is highlighted as a critical component for AI chip architecture, emphasizing its high bandwidth and energy efficiency [11] Electric Vehicle Market - The electric two-wheeler market in China saw explosive growth in the first half of 2025, with sales reaching 32.325 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.5% [13] - Government subsidies and consumer incentives are driving this growth, with new safety regulations set to take effect in September 2025 [13] Digital Human Technology - ByteDance's Volcano Engine is testing a new digital human platform named "Chimera," which will offer various services including digital avatars and video translation [14] Corporate Announcements - Anning Co. plans to invest 6.508 billion yuan in restructuring and acquiring 100% of a mining company, which is expected to enhance its resource reserves and market share [16] - Longchuan Technology reported a net profit of 427 million yuan for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 98.73% [17] - Hai Tian Rui Sheng's net profit for the first half is projected between 2.944 million and 4.416 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 607.01% to 960.52% [17] Stock Performance - Several companies reached historical highs, including BiKang Technology and WuXin Tunnel Equipment, both with a 29.99% increase [18] - The upcoming stock unlocks include GuoBo Electronics with a market value of 19.938 billion yuan, representing 55.46% of its shares [21]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices. Key areas of focus for July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance volatility due to export dynamics, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][9] - The report suggests a medium to long-term investment strategy focusing on high oil prices, robust performance in the oil and gas extraction sector, and the growth potential in new materials, particularly in electronic and renewable energy materials [2][9] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - As of July 20, the SW basic chemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM excluding negative values) is 23.36, at the 69.37 percentile historically; the price-to-book ratio is 1.90, at the 18.24 percentile historically. The SW oil and petrochemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio is 11.20, at the 18.91 percentile historically; the price-to-book ratio is 1.22, at the 4.85 percentile historically [2][9] - In the week of July 14-20, 22 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 53 experienced declines, and 25 remained stable. The products with the highest weekly price increases included TDI, urea, and R22, while those with the largest declines included polyester FDY and acetic acid [8][30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with stable dividend policies in the energy sector, as well as leading companies in high-growth sub-sectors such as fluorochemicals and vitamins, which are expected to maintain high demand and supply concentration [2][9] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the electronic materials and new energy sectors [2][9] Price Trends - TDI prices increased by 18.83% week-on-week, reaching an average of 14,913 CNY/ton, while glyphosate prices rose by 1.57% to 25,901 CNY/ton. The report indicates that supply-side constraints and strong demand are likely to support these price trends in the near term [3][30]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The chemical industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulation policies, supply-side changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush" in the first half of the year, the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies, and stable dividend policies in energy enterprises [2][10] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of July 7-13, 2025, among 100 tracked chemical products, 22 saw price increases, 47 experienced declines, and 31 remained stable. 39% of products had a month-on-month average price increase, while 55% saw a decrease, and 6% remained unchanged. The top gainers included DMF, potassium chloride, and acetone, while hydrochloric acid and aniline were among the largest decliners [9][33] Oil Price Trends - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with WTI crude futures closing at $68.45 per barrel (up 2.93%) and Brent crude at $70.36 per barrel (up 3.02%). The U.S. average daily crude oil production was reported at 13.385 million barrels, a decrease of 48,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 850,000 barrels year-on-year [9][10] Product Price Changes - The average price of polysilicon increased to 31,200 CNY/ton, up 1.30% from the previous week, while glyphosate prices rose to 25,501 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.79% increase. The gross profit margin for glyphosate was reported at 10.85%, with a significant year-on-year increase of 129.88% [9][10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several investment themes: the sustained high prices of crude oil, the rapid development of downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy measures. Recommended companies include China Petroleum, China Oilfield Services, and various technology firms in the electronic materials sector [10][11] Key Stocks for July - The report highlights "Satellite Chemical" and "Anji Technology" as key stocks for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in their recent financial reports [11][17]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The industry has been significantly impacted by tariff-related policies and fluctuations in crude oil prices this year. Key areas to focus on in July include safety regulations, supply changes in the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations due to "export rush," the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - In the week of June 30 to July 6, among 100 tracked chemical products, 25 saw price increases, 56 saw declines, and 19 remained stable. The average price of TDI increased by 7.02% week-on-week, while the average price of acrylic acid rose by 3.65% [11][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on safety regulations and supply changes affecting the pesticide and intermediate sectors, performance fluctuations from the first half of the year, the growing importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials, and stable dividend policies in energy companies. Long-term investment themes include sustained high crude oil prices benefiting the oil and gas extraction sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and policy support for demand recovery [12][19] Key Products and Price Changes - TDI prices increased to 12,013 CNY/ton, while acrylic acid prices reached 7,100 CNY/ton, reflecting a 14.52% year-on-year increase. The average price of crude oil also saw slight increases, with WTI at 66.50 USD/barrel and Brent at 68.30 USD/barrel [11][35][36] Company Highlights - Satellite Chemical and Anji Technology are highlighted as "gold stocks" for July, with both companies showing strong revenue and profit growth in 2024. Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 45.648 billion CNY, a 10.03% increase year-on-year, while Anji Technology achieved a revenue of 1.835 billion CNY, a 48.24% increase year-on-year [13][19]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Tokyo Electron (8035 JP) with a "Buy" rating and sets a target price of 32,000 JPY, corresponding to approximately 25 times FY26E PE [5][17][21]. Core Views - Tokyo Electron is Japan's largest and the world's fourth-largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer, with leading positions in various sectors such as coating and developing, etching, deposition, cleaning, and probe stations. The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing global semiconductor investment expansion, particularly in emerging fields driven by generative AI and advanced logic chips [5][17][21]. - The company has a strong market presence, with a 92% market share in the coating and developing sector, and is well-positioned to capitalize on the structural growth in demand for advanced processes in the semiconductor industry [5][17][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Logic 1: Benefiting from Structural Expansion in China's Advanced Process Demand - Tokyo Electron has significantly benefited from high capital expenditure in China's semiconductor industry, particularly in advanced processes like DRAM and logic chips. The company's revenue from mainland China is expected to grow by 24.8% year-on-year in FY25, maintaining its position as the largest market [6][18]. - Despite a projected 7% decline in the overall scale of the Chinese semiconductor market in CY25, demand for advanced process equipment is expected to structurally increase, allowing the company to maintain stable revenue growth in China [6][18]. Investment Logic 2: Benefiting from the Growth of High-End Equipment Demand Driven by Generative AI in the U.S. - In FY25, Tokyo Electron's revenue outside mainland China is projected to grow by 39.3%, with North America experiencing a significant 44.5% year-on-year increase. This growth is attributed to the ongoing investments in advanced semiconductor processes driven by U.S. semiconductor policies [7][19]. - The company holds a competitive edge in low-temperature etching and HBM wafer bonding technology, positioning it well to benefit from the expansion of advanced manufacturing in the U.S. [7][19]. Differentiated Market Perspective - While there are concerns about potential long-term declines in market share in China due to domestic semiconductor equipment initiatives, the report argues that Tokyo Electron has established a global supply chain capable of meeting regulatory and customer requirements, which will help maintain its market share in China [8][20]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts that Tokyo Electron's revenue will reach 2,431.6 billion JPY in FY25, marking a 32.8% year-on-year increase, with net profit expected to grow by 49.5% to 544.1 billion JPY. The company is projected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with revenue growth rates of 8%/11%/11% and net profit growth rates of 9.8%/10.8%/11.6% for FY26/27/28 [9][27]. - The SPE new equipment business is anticipated to be the main revenue driver, accounting for 76.5% of total revenue in FY25, with a year-on-year growth rate of 35.6% [9][27].

Core Viewpoint - The recent IPO applications of domestic GPU companies, Moore Threads and Muxi Integrated Circuit, have reignited discussions about the challenges and potential of the domestic GPU industry, particularly regarding the high costs and the need for substantial investment to achieve profitability [1][3][4][5]. Group 1: IPO Developments - Both Moore Threads and Muxi Integrated Circuit have had their IPO applications accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking a significant step for the domestic GPU sector [1][3]. - Muxi plans to raise 3.9 billion yuan, while Moore Threads aims to raise 8 billion yuan through their IPOs [4][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Muxi's projected net losses from 2022 to 2024 are 777 million yuan, 871 million yuan, and 1.4 billion yuan, with R&D expenditures of 647.8 million yuan, 699 million yuan, and 900 million yuan respectively [4]. - Moore Threads anticipates net losses of 1.84 billion yuan, 1.673 billion yuan, and 1.492 billion yuan over the same period, with R&D costs of 1.116 billion yuan, 1.334 billion yuan, and 1.359 billion yuan [5]. - Despite the losses, both companies are seeing revenue growth, with Muxi's revenue projected to reach 743 million yuan by 2024, and Moore Threads expecting 438 million yuan in the same year [7][9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic GPU market is characterized by high competition, with various players adopting different strategies, including those aligned with NVIDIA and AMD technologies [12][14]. - The GPU industry is heavily reliant on R&D investments, with companies needing to continue funding their development efforts to remain competitive [21][22]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The AI sector is identified as a significant growth area for GPUs, with the market for AI chips in China projected to grow substantially, indicating a promising future for domestic GPU manufacturers [25][26]. - The competitive landscape is expected to undergo consolidation, as many players vie for market share, suggesting that mergers and acquisitions may become more common [26][27].

Core Insights - The article highlights that MediaTek has once again topped the average salary rankings for non-managerial full-time employees in Taiwan for 2024, with an average salary of 4.31 million TWD, marking a 14.8% increase from the previous year [1][2] Salary Rankings - MediaTek leads the salary rankings among all listed companies, being the only company with an average salary exceeding 4 million TWD [1] - Among all listed companies, there are 9 companies with average salaries over 3 million TWD for non-managerial employees, with 8 of them being in the semiconductor industry [1][2] - The top 10 salary list includes companies from various sectors, but the semiconductor industry dominates, with 7 out of 10 being IC design companies [1] Salary Growth - The highest salary growth in the top ten is seen in Ruiding, with a 33.53% increase, followed by Dafa at 27.35% and Realtek at 24.33% [1][2] - TSMC also reported a significant salary increase of 19.32% [1][2] Median Salary Insights - In terms of median salary, MediaTek again ranks first with a median of 3.438 million TWD, followed by Realtek at 3.246 million TWD and Dafa at 3.049 million TWD [4][5] - Only three companies have a median salary exceeding 3 million TWD, indicating a concentration of high salaries within these firms [4] Notable Trends - The only non-semiconductor company in the median salary top 10 is Evergreen Marine, which ranks tenth with a median salary of 2.415 million TWD [5] - Evergreen Marine also recorded the highest growth in median salary at 71.28%, followed by Dafa at 29.91% and Realtek at 25.18% [5]

Summary of Rambus Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Rambus - **Industry**: Semiconductors, specifically focusing on memory technologies and silicon IP Key Points Demand Environment - Rambus experienced strong demand in the server market, particularly for AI servers, leading to a 52% growth in product revenue compared to the same quarter last year [3][4] - The silicon IP business is also seeing increased demand as companies develop custom chips for AI applications [3] Market Size and Growth - The market for RCD (Register Clock Driver) chips is estimated at $750 million, with an additional $600 million from new companionship chips introduced in DDR5 memory modules [6][7] - The overall market is expanding due to increased bandwidth and capacity requirements driven by AI and traditional servers [9][10] Competitive Dynamics - Rambus holds a market share of over 40% in RCD chips, with a goal to reach 50% [12][14] - The company has invested early in product development, which has helped secure its position in the market [14] Product Development and Innovations - The transition from DDR4 to DDR5 has necessitated the development of new chips, including power management and temperature sensors, which Rambus is actively pursuing [37][39] - Rambus is also developing MRDIMM chipsets, which will double memory capacity and bandwidth, with a ramp expected in 2026 [42][44] Silicon IP Business - The silicon IP business is projected to grow at 10% to 15% annually, driven by demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) controllers [54] - Rambus is engaged with customers 18 months to 2 years ahead of product launches, ensuring they meet market needs [51][53] Financial Outlook - Rambus aims for a long-term gross margin target of 60% to 65%, with recent performance in the range of 61% to 63% [56] - The company is focused on maintaining margins through disciplined pricing and cost savings [57] Tariffs and Market Risks - Rambus's patent licensing business is unaffected by tariffs, providing a solid revenue base of $210 million with 100% margin [29][30] - The company is monitoring potential indirect impacts from supply chain shifts due to tariffs but currently reports no direct effects [32][34] Future Opportunities - The company anticipates growth in the client market as high-end PCs increasingly require advanced signal integrity solutions [46][48] - Rambus is prepared to adapt to market changes, including potential developments in LPDDR solutions for servers [20][25] Additional Insights - The competitive landscape includes two main competitors, Montage and Renaissance, with Rambus focusing on securing supply chain stability [15] - The company is actively involved in industry standards discussions through JEDEC, ensuring alignment with market needs [27] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Rambus conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, market dynamics, and future growth opportunities.