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中指研究院报告:2026年“好城市+好房子”仍具备结构性机会
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-12-11 09:40
中国经济网北京12月11日讯(记者李方)12月11日,中指研究院发布《中国房地产市场2025总结&2026展 望》显示,2025年,全国房地产市场整体延续调整态势,二季度以来新房销售边际转弱,二手房市场持 续"以价换量",市场整体仍处于"止跌回稳"过程中。报告预计,2026年市场分化态势延续,"好城市+好 房子"仍具备结构性机会。 2026年是"十五五"开局之年,预计更多增量政策将在"十五五"开局之年加速落地,政策力度也有望进一 步加大,经济增长目标或仍设定在5%左右,为高质量增长预留空间。 房地产政策方面,"十五五"规划建议明确指出要"推动房地产高质量发展",并提出清理住房消费不合理 限制性措施,预计短期政策将继续聚焦推动房地产市场止跌回稳,围绕稳定预期、激活需求和优化供给 落实相关举措。激活需求方面,一是北上深等城市限制性政策具备进一步优化空间;二是预计继续通过 降低房贷利率、降低中介费用、加大房贷利息抵扣个税力度等方式降低购房成本。优化供给方面,"十 五五"规划建议强调"投资于人",预计未来有望通过加大住房租金或购房补贴等"补人头"方式落实住房 保障,同时继续加大存量商品房和存量闲置土地收储力度,加速改 ...
尾盘突发!权重股,集体异动!
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-12-11 09:05
Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with major indices declining, while the North Securities 50 Index surged over 6% at one point, closing up 3.84% [1][6] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% to 3873.32 points, with the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index down 1.27% and 1.41% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 188.55 billion yuan, an increase of 9.37 billion yuan from the previous day [1] Stock Movements - Several heavyweight stocks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petroleum, and Kweichow Moutai, saw a sudden rally during the closing auction [1][3] - New stocks showed resilience, with Moer Technology rising 28% to surpass 900 yuan, achieving a market capitalization of over 440 billion yuan [1] - The high-voltage transmission concept stocks were notably active, with Tongguang Cable and Zhongchao Holdings hitting the daily limit [9] Specific Stock Highlights - The North Securities 50 Index saw significant gains, with individual stocks like Tianli Composite and Fujida reaching daily limits of 30% and over 13% respectively [6][7] - The high-voltage cable sector showed strong performance, with Tongguang Cable and Huazhong Cable both hitting the daily limit, while Caneng Electric rose nearly 8% [9][10] Regulatory and Compliance Issues - ZTE Corporation's stock fell over 13% following news of a compliance investigation related to the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, with the company affirming its commitment to compliance and normal operations [2] Future Outlook - The electricity equipment industry is expected to benefit from dual opportunities in domestic demand and external market recovery, particularly in the context of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" [11] - Investment in the power grid is projected to maintain stable growth, with an estimated completion amount of approximately 3.8 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2030, driven by a sustained increase in electricity consumption [11]
尾盘突发!权重股,集体异动!
证券时报· 2025-12-11 09:01
Core Viewpoint - A-shares experienced a mixed performance with major indices declining, while the North Exchange 50 index surged, indicating sector-specific movements and investor sentiment shifts [2][10]. A-share Market Summary - The three major A-share indices collectively fell, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.7% to 3873.32 points, the Shenzhen Component down 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.41%. The North Exchange 50 index, however, rose 3.84% [2]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North exchanges reached 188.55 billion yuan, an increase of 93.7 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Consumer sectors such as retail, food and beverage, and liquor saw significant declines, with companies like Anji Food and Haixin Food hitting the daily limit down [2]. Key Stock Movements - Several heavyweight stocks, including Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Petroleum, Kweichow Moutai, and China Life, experienced a sudden rally during the closing auction [5]. - Newly listed stocks showed resilience, with Moer Technology surging 28% to surpass 900 yuan, reaching a market capitalization of over 440 billion yuan [2]. - The ultra-high voltage concept stocks were notably active, with Tongguang Cable, Zhongchao Holdings, and Hualing Cable hitting the daily limit up [12]. Hong Kong Market Summary - In the Hong Kong market, ZTE Corporation's shares fell over 13% following news of compliance investigations related to the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The company is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice and emphasizes its commitment to compliance [3]. North Exchange 50 Index Highlights - The North Exchange 50 index saw a significant increase, rising over 6% at one point and closing up 3.84%. Key stocks included Tianli Composite, which hit the daily limit up with a 30% increase, and others like Fujida and Xingtou Measurement Control, which rose over 13% [10][11]. Ultra-High Voltage Sector Insights - The ultra-high voltage sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Tongguang Cable and Zhongchao Holdings reaching their daily limit up. The sector is expected to benefit from stable growth in power grid investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with an estimated investment of approximately 3.8 trillion yuan from 2026 to 2030 [14].
八位首席经济学家同台畅论中国股市叙事:A股价值重估明年新逻辑
Core Insights - The Southern Finance Forum 2025 emphasized the theme of "The Power of Consensus - Innovation Surge, China's Asset Revaluation" and gathered leading economists to discuss the economic outlook and capital market prospects for 2026 [1][2] Economic Outlook - Experts agree that 2026 will be a key year for structural adjustment and rebalancing in China's economy, with GDP expected to grow by 5% in 2025, driven by strong performance in exports and new sectors [2][3] - The focus will shift from external demand to internal consumption, with a significant emphasis on enhancing the consumption rate as a new growth point [2][3] - The economic recovery is predicted to show a "front low, back high" trend, with weaker demand in the first half of 2026 but a rebound in investment in the second half [2][3] A-Share Market Revaluation - Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy, the A-share market has stabilized, with discussions centered on whether the logic of value revaluation will continue [4][5] - Key conditions for A-shares to enter a "second phase" of revaluation include reasonable valuation levels and a potential recovery in industrial enterprise profits if PPI improves [4][5] - The market evolution is expected to unfold in three stages: bond market yield decline, a surge in technology growth stocks, and a recovery in manufacturing profits driven by policy changes [4][5] Technological and Structural Changes - The consensus highlights that internal demand will become the main engine of economic growth, with technological innovation being crucial for both the real economy and capital market narratives [3][6] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need for technology to be rooted in the industrial context to avoid becoming a mere capital bubble [8] Global Economic Context - The global economic landscape is expected to undergo significant adjustments, with potential for mild inflation and structural reforms in China [3][6] - Concerns about the AI bubble in the US market are noted, with experts suggesting that while risks are manageable, the impact on A-shares remains a point of interest [6][7] Potential Risks - Experts identified several potential risks, including liquidity crises stemming from accumulated debt, geopolitical factors affecting market stability, and the need for proactive measures to address employment impacts from technological advancements [8]
解码“十五五”|下活区域协调“一盘棋”
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-12-11 07:41
《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》明确提出,要"优化区域经济布 局,促进区域协调发展",强调要发挥区域协调发展战略叠加效应、增强区域发展协调性、推动区域联 动发展,最终构建优势互补、高质量发展的区域经济布局和国土空间体系。 新时代以来,我国推动区域协调发展"一盘棋",已超越传统的地理空间整合,正迈向科技、产业、规 则、治理的多维深层协同。在区域协调发展的宏大棋盘上,激活区域联动、培育高质量增长新优势,必 将为中国式现代化注入更加均衡、更可持续的发展动能。 总监制丨骆红秉 魏驱虎 监 制丨王敬东 主 编丨李璇 策 划丨李珊珊 编 辑丨刘禛 视 频丨李雪菲 视 觉丨郝凤林 校 对丨蔡纯琳 李丹 任佳 毛长志 李英卓 出 品丨中央广播电视总台央视网 编者按:党的二十届四中全会审议通过"十五五"规划建议,擘画了中国未来五年的发展战略与实施路 径。蓝图绘就新征程。央视网《联播观察》推出《解码"十五五"》系列微视频,与您一同聚焦宏伟新蓝 图,洞察时代新脉动,解码发展新机遇,见证中国全面建设社会主义现代化国家的坚定步伐。 联播+区域协调发展是中国式现代化的内在要求。习近平总书记指出:"我们必须适应 ...
30亿!“落袋为安”
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-12-11 06:22
昨日股票ETF资金净流出超30亿元 12月10日,股票ETF(含跨境ETF)资金净流出32.8亿元。 资金净流入前五板块为红利(净流入10.1亿元)、科创板50指数(净流入8.5亿元)、港股科技(净流入7.6亿元)、恒生科技指数(净流入7.2亿元)、半 导体(净流入5.7亿元)。 资金净流出前五板块为沪深300指数(净流出17.7亿元)、中证500指数(净流出16.1亿元)、中证1000指数(净流出10.0亿元)、上证50指数(净流出9.0 亿元)、人工智能(净流出8.0亿元)。 【导读】昨日股票ETF资金净流出超30亿元 12月10日,A股三大指数低开震荡下探,截至收盘,沪指跌0.23%,深证成指涨0.29%,创业板指跌0.02%。盘面上,免税店、贵金属、零售、多元金融等 概念股涨幅居前,银行、消费电子、培育钻石等板块跌幅居前。 当日,股票ETF资金净流出超30亿元,其中,券商ETF、证券保险ETF、绿色电力ETF等热门主题ETF资金净流入居前,中证500ETF、沪深300ETF、上证 50ETF、中证1000ETF等宽基ETF成为"失血"大户。 头部基金公司方面,易方达基金旗下ETF最新规模为8205.3 ...
30亿!“落袋为安”
中国基金报· 2025-12-11 06:20
【导读】昨日股票 ETF 资金净流出超 30 亿元 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 12 月 10 日, A 股三大指数低开震荡下探,截至收盘,沪指跌 0.23% ,深证成指涨 0.29% ,创业板指跌 0.02% 。盘面上,免税店、 贵金属、零售、多元金融等概念股涨幅居前,银行、消费电子、培育钻石等板块跌幅居前。 当日,股票 ETF 资金净流出超 30 亿元,其中, 券商 ETF 、证券保险 ETF 、绿色电力 ETF 等热门主题 ETF 资金净流入居前, 中证 500ETF 、沪深 300ETF 、上证 50ETF 、中证 1000ETF 等宽基 ETF 成为 " 失血 " 大户。 昨日股票 ETF 资金净流出超 30 亿元 宽基 ETF 成为 " 失血 " 大户 从单日资金净流入排行看, A500ETF 、港股科技 50ETF 、科创板 50ETF 等宽基 ETF 成为 " 吸金 " 主力,券商 ETF 、证券保险 ETF 、绿色电力 ETF 等热门主题 ETF 资金净流入居前。 | | | 12月10日资金净流入居前的股票ETF一览 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
军工ETF(512660)飘红,机构聚焦商业航天与十五五规划机遇
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-12-11 05:57
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 军工ETF(512660)跟踪的是中证军工指数(399967),该指数从沪深市场中选取十大军工集团控股且 主营业务与军工行业相关的上市公司,以及其他主营业务为军工行业的代表性公司作为样本股,以反映 军工主题股票的整体表现。 华福证券指出,商业航天板块催化密集,12月4日至5日2025卫星互联网产业生态大会在上海举办,12月 6日我国成功发射卫星互联网低轨14组卫星,全球龙头SpaceX启动新一轮融资并瞄准明年IPO。朱雀三 号遥一运载火箭完成入轨试验,虽一级回收未成功,但测试-发射-飞行全流程跑通,为后续复用迭代奠 定基础。可回收火箭的突破将显著降低发射成本,推动低轨星座组网与商业化落地,产业链逻辑从"运 力稀缺"转向"规模应用"。26-27年在十五五计划、建军百年目标及军贸发展等多重催化下,内需外需均 将大幅增长。 ...
四川“十五五”规划建议:加快发展低空经济、新材料等新兴产业
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-12-11 05:44
(原标题:四川"十五五"规划建议:加快发展低空经济、新材料等新兴产业) 经济观察网 近日,中共四川省委关于制定四川省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。 其中提出,培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业。推动战略性新兴产业集聚成势,实施产业创新工程,推进产 业新赛道争先竞速行动,着力打造新兴支柱产业。做强生物医药、轨道交通装备、节能环保等国家战略 性新兴产业集群,壮大新型显示、集成电路、无人机、核技术应用等省级战略性新兴产业集群,加快发 展人工智能、低空经济、新能源、新材料、智能网联汽车、核医疗、激光装备、增材制造等新兴产业。 加快建设西部商业航天港、航空动力科创区,推进航空航天强省建设。前瞻布局发展未来产业,聚焦第 六代移动通信、量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、深空深地、脑机接口、具身智能、前沿半导体 等领域,加快突破前沿关键核心技术,建设一批未来产业孵化器和先导区。推动新技术新产品新场景应 用示范,完善产业生态,建设新场景推广应用中心,建立未来产业投入增长和风险分担机制,加快新兴 产业规模化发展。促进中小企业专精特新发展,培育瞪羚企业、独角兽企业。 中共四川省委关于制定四川省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五 ...
学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神丨北京、安徽、四川、中央和国家机关开展形式多样的宣讲,推动全会精神深入基层、深入人心
Yang Guang Wang· 2025-12-11 05:36
中国科学技术大学学生豆祖琦:我们要牢记习近平总书记嘱托,认真学习贯彻四中全会精神,始终 坚守科技报国的初心,不负韶华、不负时代。在实验室里潜心钻研,在实践中攻坚克难,增强自我创新 能力,为中国式现代化贡献青春力量。 四川组织多支基层理论宣讲团,深入农村、社区、重点工程建设工地等,围绕提升成渝地区双城经 济圈发展能级、扎实推进乡村全面振兴等主题,进行分众化、互动化宣讲。目前,全省已累计开展基层 宣讲5000多场。 央广网北京12月11日消息 据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》报道,连日来,北 京、安徽、四川、中央和国家机关,开展形式多样的宣讲,推动学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神走深 走实。 学习贯彻四中全会精神,北京面向基层,组织开展了多层次、全方位、立体化宣讲。百姓宣讲团成 员走进机关、学校、社区、乡村等地,结合自己的亲身感受,宣讲全会精神,推动全会精神深入人心。 北京市海淀区紫竹院街道党群工作办公室副主任李凌艳:作为一名基层干部,我们必须坚决贯彻党 的二十届四中全会精神,坚定拥护"两个确立"、坚决做到"两个维护",立足本职岗位,务实创新、担当 作为,让老百姓切实感受到身边的点滴幸福。 安徽以省市县 ...