【东北地产建筑|中期策略】生存到重生，分化与机遇 房地产 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2025-11-24 [Table_Invest] 优于大势 房地产行业有何可预见趋势 政策预期再起，方向节奏如何展望？ 政策复盘&展望：止跌回稳信心坚决，楼市政策窗口期将 ---2025W47 房地产周报 报告摘要： 近 [Table_Summary] 本周观点：政策预期再起，方向节奏如何展望？ 楼市量价止跌回稳进度如何 商业地产：稳地产促消费，消费+地产助力房企穿越周期 短期房贷贴息与个税补贴出台的可能性较大，通过直接/间接全国范围 内降低购房成本以达到短期楼市量价下行的缓冲垫作用，但政策效果的 城市分化或仍然存在，楼市结构性的回暖值得期待；中期关注一线城市 限购的完全松绑，随着限购松绑的进一步接力若房价调整有触底迹象， 则长期关注中央下场推动大规模市场化收储。 修复 投资建议：整体看来，2024 年 924 新政的动能正逐步减 弱，楼市信心仍待提振，在此背景下更多楼市政策值得期 待，具体来说：①稳预期→"需求侧"或将继续调减限购等 本周地产：A 股与港股跑输/跑赢大盘。本周 A 股房地产和港股地产建筑 板块涨跌 ...

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market is the most accurate reflection of the real estate market's current state, and this perspective will continue to gain significance as new homes eventually become second-hand properties [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Beike's Q3 financial report revealed a net profit of 747 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.1%, and an adjusted net profit of 1.286 billion yuan, down 27.8% year-on-year [3]. - The total transaction volume for Beike's second-hand housing business reached 505.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, but revenue decreased by 3.6% to approximately 6 billion yuan [3]. - Beike's new housing business saw a transaction volume of 196.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.7%, with revenue dropping 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan [3][4]. Group 2: Market Trends - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a price drop, leading to increased transaction volumes as buyers find better value, although revenue is declining due to a higher proportion of transactions coming from franchise stores [6][8]. - The overall real estate market is shrinking, impacting Beike's profitability despite its market dominance [7]. - The shift towards "fourth-generation residential" projects is reducing developers' reliance on intermediaries, leading to lower commission rates for agents [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Beike's non-real estate business, including home decoration and rental services, is performing well, with home decoration revenue at 4.3 billion yuan and rental income growing by 45.3% to 5.7 billion yuan [8][9]. - The real estate industry is transitioning from a focus on property transactions to comprehensive residential services, indicating that Beike may expand its offerings to include furniture and appliances [10]. - Future home-buying decisions will increasingly prioritize living quality, rental yield, and property management, with older neighborhoods likely facing further depreciation [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "Internet thinking" and its applicability across different industries, emphasizing that not all sectors can benefit from high-cost customer acquisition strategies. The key to success lies in high-frequency usage, user stickiness, and network effects, which are essential for sustaining customer engagement without ongoing subsidies [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding "Internet Thinking" - "Internet thinking" refers to attracting a large user base through free strategies or subsidies, which can later be monetized as user habits are formed [1]. - Successful examples of "Internet thinking" include platforms like Taobao, Didi, Meituan, which have established strong network effects and user habits, allowing them to retain users even without subsidies [2][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of High-Cost Customer Acquisition Models - High-cost customer acquisition models are sustainable only if they meet three criteria: high-frequency usage, user habit formation, and the ability to create a dual-sided network effect [2][4]. - Platforms like Taobao and WeChat exemplify high-frequency usage, as users frequently engage with these services, forming habitual usage patterns [2][4]. Group 3: Unsustainable High-Cost Customer Acquisition Models - The second-hand car e-commerce industry illustrates the pitfalls of high-cost customer acquisition, as it is characterized by low-frequency, high-value transactions, making it difficult to cultivate user habits [6][9]. - Companies like Uxin faced significant losses despite high gross margins, as their marketing expenses exceeded revenues, leading to unsustainable business models [6][5]. - The real estate sector, represented by companies like Aiwujia, also struggled with high-cost acquisition due to the low-frequency nature of transactions and the inability to build user loyalty [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - In Q3 2025, the real estate market continues to undergo deep adjustments as policy effects weaken, with Beike's net revenue increasing by 2.1% year-on-year to 23.1 billion yuan, driven by a significant rise in rental service income despite declines in new and second-hand housing revenues [2] Financial Performance - Beike reported a net profit of 747 million yuan in Q3, a decrease of 36.1% year-on-year, while adjusted net profit fell by 27.8% to 1.286 billion yuan [3] - The total transaction volume on Beike's platform remained flat year-on-year at 736.7 billion yuan, with the existing home business GTV reaching 505.6 billion yuan, up 5.8%, but revenue down 3.6% to approximately 6 billion yuan [4] - New home business GTV in Q3 was 196.3 billion yuan, down 13.7%, with revenue decreasing by 14.1% to 6.6 billion yuan, attributed to a sluggish new home market [4] Business Segments - The number of active stores on Beike's platform reached 59,012, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, while the number of active agents grew by 11.4% to 471,501 [4] - Non-real estate transaction revenue reached a record high, accounting for 45% of total revenue, with home decoration and rental services contributing significantly [7] - Rental business revenue increased by 45.3% year-on-year to 5.7 billion yuan, with a profit margin improvement of 4.3 percentage points to 8.7% [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - Beike's CEO highlighted ongoing efforts in organizational restructuring, process reengineering, and technological innovation to enhance business efficiency and customer experience [5] - The company is expanding its AI capabilities in core business scenarios, with the AI assistant "Laike" covering 414,000 agents by the end of Q3 [5] - Beike is exploring new market opportunities in lower-tier cities with its "B+" product and has launched a new business, "Beihome," focusing on data-driven customer needs [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, with property prices declining across both first-tier and second-tier cities, leading to a challenging environment for various stakeholders [1][3][9]. Market Trends - In the second quarter of 2025, the price index for new residential properties in 70 major cities fell by 2.7% month-on-month and 7.8% year-on-year, marking the largest decline in nearly five years [1]. - As of June 2025, the inventory of commercial housing reached 5.37 billion square meters, with a de-stocking cycle extending to 17 months, significantly above the healthy level of 12 months [1]. - Real estate investment growth has been negative for eight consecutive months, and land transaction area decreased by 23.5% year-on-year [1]. Affected Demographics - The most impacted groups are high-leverage young families and workers dependent on the real estate industry [3][4]. - High-leverage families, primarily from the 80s and 90s generations, face severe financial strain due to falling property values and high mortgage burdens [3][4]. - Approximately 37% of homebuyers in first- and second-tier cities belong to high-leverage families, experiencing both asset depreciation and psychological distress [4]. - The real estate industry employs around 250 million people, and the downturn has led to significant job losses and income reductions across various sectors, including real estate agencies, construction, and home improvement [4][6]. Industry Response - The number of real estate agency stores decreased by nearly 15% in the first half of 2025, with a 30% turnover rate among employees [4][6]. - The construction industry saw a 17.3% year-on-year decline in new employment, with some regions reporting a 15% drop in wages for construction workers [4][6]. - Retail in related sectors, such as home furnishings, has also suffered, with foot traffic down over 40% and sales halved compared to the previous year [6]. Government Measures - The government has implemented measures to stabilize the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios, reducing mortgage rates, and canceling purchase restrictions [7]. - These policies have shown some effect, with a 5.3% month-on-month increase in national commercial housing sales area in June 2025, indicating signs of market stabilization [7]. Long-term Outlook - The adjustment in the real estate market reflects broader economic and demographic shifts, suggesting that property will no longer consistently appreciate in value [9]. - The focus is shifting back to housing as a means of living rather than speculation, emphasizing the importance of rational decision-making in both home buying and career choices [9][10].

Core Insights - The real estate agency industry in China has rapidly expanded, with over two million practitioners, but there is a growing call for the abolition of real estate agents due to widespread consumer dissatisfaction [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Dissatisfaction - A survey indicates that 85% of respondents are dissatisfied with agency services, and 73% support the cancellation of real estate agents [1] - Key issues include the prevalence of false or outdated property listings, leading to feelings of deception among consumers when agents redirect them to less favorable options [3] - Some unscrupulous agents encourage buyers and sellers to sign "yin-yang contracts" to evade taxes, which can lead to legal repercussions for the parties involved [5] Group 2: Market Disruption - Real estate agents are accused of artificially inflating prices, disrupting the normal market order by persuading homeowners to raise prices based on exaggerated market trends [7] - This manipulation has led many homeowners, who initially had no intention to increase prices, to raise their selling or rental prices [7] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The call for the abolition of real estate agents may be unrealistic, but the industry is expected to face stricter regulations and oversight in the future [9] - A notice issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and eight other departments emphasizes the need to address significant issues in the real estate market within three years [9] - Major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Nanjing have begun implementing comprehensive regulations on real estate agencies to tackle existing market chaos [9] Group 4: Future Trends - The future of the real estate industry is becoming clearer, with increased regulatory efforts leading to a more standardized market, potentially eliminating non-compliant second-hand agencies [10] - The influx of private capital into online real estate trading platforms is expected to reduce reliance on traditional agents by providing easier access to information for buyers and sellers [10] - Local governments are establishing second-hand housing transaction centers to alleviate information asymmetry between buyers, sellers, and agents, as seen in Yongcheng, Henan Province [10]

Core Viewpoint - The transition from "commission" to "cut" reflects a shift in the perception of intermediary services in the digital economy, where platforms have become essential facilitators of transactions, leading to a change in how fees are viewed and understood [4][5][9]. Group 1: Role of Intermediaries - Intermediaries provide essential services such as information matching, verification of transaction details, and process facilitation, which justify the fees paid by both parties involved in a transaction [3][4]. - The existence of intermediaries helps reduce transaction costs and improve efficiency, making the payment of fees reasonable in the context of real estate transactions [3][4]. Group 2: Evolution of Fees - In the digital age, intermediaries have evolved into platforms that connect supply and demand, leading to a more complex fee structure that often obscures the specific services provided [4][7]. - The term "cut" has emerged as a more colloquial and negative connotation compared to "commission," reflecting a perception of exploitation and lack of transparency in platform fees [6][9]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - Recent regulatory documents have begun to recognize and differentiate between "commission" and "cut," indicating a formal acknowledgment of the changing landscape of platform fees [8][9]. - The inclusion of "cut" in regulatory guidelines suggests a shift in how platform fees are categorized and understood within the broader economic framework [8][9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The decline in growth rates in relevant sectors has heightened sensitivity to fees, making the transition from "commission" to "cut" more pronounced as stakeholders become more aware of their expenditures [10]. - Platforms face market constraints that can limit their ability to impose high fees, as excessive cuts may drive merchants to seek alternatives, thereby impacting platform revenues [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is experiencing a significant downturn, characterized by a sharp decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes, store closures, and mass layoffs among frontline workers, particularly affecting major industry players. In contrast, some local small agencies are managing to expand and find new opportunities amidst this crisis [2][5][7]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The Shanghai real estate market has seen transaction volumes drop to historical lows, with some areas nearing a "frozen" state, while housing prices are in a continuous decline [7][9]. - The core issue for real estate agencies is the "double drop" in transaction volume and prices, leading to layoffs and store closures as agencies struggle to maintain profitability [5][9]. - The traditional model of real estate agencies, which relied on high transaction volumes for commission income, is being severely tested as the market faces a depletion of demand and a shift in buyer sentiment [9][11]. Group 2: Small Agencies' Success - Some emerging small agencies are thriving by adopting a new commission model that offers agents a significantly higher share of profits, distributing 70% of company profits to agents compared to the traditional 5%-8% [11][13]. - These small agencies are leveraging social media to attract clients, transforming property sales into content-driven marketing, which allows them to reach potential buyers outside traditional channels [13][15]. Group 3: Traditional Agencies' Struggles - Traditional agencies are aware of the importance of social media but struggle to implement effective changes due to outdated incentive structures and rigid operational models [15][16]. - Many traditional agencies continue to rely on their proprietary apps for client engagement, which limits their ability to adapt to new market dynamics and customer acquisition strategies [16][18]. Group 4: Industry Regulations and Ethics - The downturn has led to the emergence of unethical practices among some agencies, including misleading clients and manipulating prices, which violate legal regulations [18][19]. - Recent initiatives by industry associations aim to curb these practices by promoting transparency and accountability, emphasizing the need for compliance and ethical behavior in the industry [21][23].

Core Insights - The real estate market in China is transitioning into a "stock era," with an increasing proportion of second-hand housing transactions and a growing demand for professional real estate services [1][5][11] Group 1: Market Trends - The proportion of second-hand housing transactions is rising, leading to longer transaction cycles and a shift in buyer expectations towards quality housing [1][6] - The market is evolving into a buyer's market, where buyers have more control over the purchasing process, emphasizing the need for professional advisory services [5][6] Group 2: Service Model Innovation - The introduction of the "single-sided service" model by Ziroom Meijia separates the roles of agents, providing dedicated services for sellers and buyers, which addresses the limitations of traditional dual-agent models [5][6] - This model aims to enhance service quality and efficiency, responding to the increasing demand for specialized real estate services [6][10] Group 3: Product Offering - Ziroom Meijia has launched three product lines: "Clean Water Good House," "Renewed Good House," and "Heart Home Good House," aimed at improving the quality of second-hand housing through tailored renovation solutions [7][8] - The "Clean Water Good House" focuses on comprehensive renovations of older properties, significantly enhancing their marketability and value [8][9] Group 4: Commission Structure - The company has implemented a commission reduction strategy, offering a 50% discount on buyer commissions and an 80% discount on seller commissions, which aims to improve transaction efficiency [10] - This strategy is supported by technological innovations and a comprehensive data-driven approach, enhancing the matching efficiency between supply and demand [10] Group 5: Industry Transformation - The launch of Ziroom Meijia's second-hand housing service signifies a shift in the real estate industry from a transaction-oriented focus to a professional asset management service approach [11] - The emphasis is now on property quality, service professionalism, and building long-term trust with users, reflecting a deeper understanding of the concept of "home" in the current market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the unethical practices of real estate agents, including hiring "actors" to create false demand and pressure sellers into quick transactions, which has led to public outrage and skepticism towards the industry [1][9][10]. Group 1: Industry Practices - Some second-hand housing agents recruit "actors" on social media to view properties and create a false sense of urgency for sellers [1][9]. - An example is provided where an "actor" offered a significantly lower price than the listing, causing the seller to leave in anger [2][5]. - The article discusses the prevalence of such deceptive practices in the real estate industry, indicating that many buyers and sellers have experienced similar issues [3][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article notes that real estate agents often shift their stance based on market conditions, currently favoring buyers due to a surplus of listings compared to potential buyers [18][20]. - It explains that during market downturns, agents are more likely to assist buyers in negotiating lower prices, as buyers have become scarce [23][22]. - The article suggests that agents are primarily motivated by commission and are more concerned with transaction volume than the actual price fluctuations of properties [17][21]. Group 3: Public Sentiment - The public's anger is directed towards agents, with many blaming them for the decline in property prices, reflecting a broader frustration with the market [10][11]. - The article mentions that sellers often fail to accept market realities, leading them to attribute price drops to "black agents" or "malicious buyers" [30][32]. - It highlights a disconnect between sellers' expectations and market conditions, with many sellers believing that collective action can maintain property values [31][32].