地产行业点评 "沪七条"促进需求释放，上海楼市政策底或已现 [Table_Author] 邮箱：hmdu@glms.com.cn 邮箱：fangpeng@glms.com.cn 邮箱：xudezun@glms.com.cn 分析师：杜昊旻 分析师：方鹏 分析师：徐得尊 执业证书：S0590524070006 执业证书：S0590524100003 执业证书：S0590525110054 事件 2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市 税务局、市公积金管理中心等五部门联合印发《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产 政策的通知》（以下简称《通知》），以更好满足居民刚性和改善性住房需求，促进 房地产市场平稳健康发展，《通知》涉及调减限购、优化公积金、完善房产税三大 方面七条内容，又称"沪七条"。 调减住房限购政策，满足居民合理住房需求。 《通知》对上海的购房限制进行了调减，主要针对非沪籍家庭或成年单身人士， 社保满 1 年（原为 3 年）可在外环内购买 1 套住房，在外环外购房不限套数；社 保满 3 年（与沪籍购房待遇一致）可在外环内购买 2 套住房；持《上海市居住证》 满 5 ...

你接到过骚扰电话吗？2026年上海两会上，代表建议构建骚扰电话综合治理长效机制。 "我身边的同事、朋友，包括我自己，我相信很多人都接到过各种各样的骚扰电话，银行贷款啊、房屋 出租啊，非常多，有点信息轰炸的味道，我认为相关部门对此要引起高度重视。"2月2日下午，上海市 人大代表、沪港国际咨询集团有限公司党委书记郭康玺在接受智通财经记者采访时说。 上海市人 同时，市场监管等部门应严查房产、金融、教育等领域"非法买号推销"，对频繁骚扰用户的企业纳入失 信名单，限制其经营活动。此外，规范商业电话营销行为，强制推行"营销电话白名单"制度，仅允许备 案后的正规企业拨打营销电话，且必须提供"一键退订"功能，用户拒绝后不得再次拨打。禁止商业机构 向第三方购买用户手机号，企业要对自身客户信息加强加密存储，防止泄露或滥用。 骚扰电话还应从技术上开展治理。郭康玺认为，移动、电信、联通等运营商应该搭建全国性"骚扰电话 溯源平台"，对高频呼出、异地呼出、标记量高的号码实时追踪，定位拨号设备或企业，配合监管部门 查处。深化电话号码实名制与分级防控，对未实名登记的号码，在保障其紧急呼叫等基本权利之外，限 制其主叫功能。 大代表郭康玺。智通 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is transitioning from scale expansion to value cultivation, necessitating a redefinition of the role and responsibilities of real estate intermediary platforms [1] Group 1: Self-Regulation Actions - Beike initiated a self-regulation action called "Three Musts and Six Prohibitions" to reaffirm its "Neutral Market View," emphasizing professionalism and integrity in real estate services [1] - As of January 28, nearly 100,000 agents on the Beike platform voluntarily signed the "Neutral Market View" commitment, indicating a growing adherence to these principles [1] - The "Three Musts" include providing honest and professional services, ensuring the authenticity of property information, and offering comprehensive and objective information to assist users in rational pricing decisions [1] Group 2: Industry Transformation - The self-regulation actions reflect the urgent need for industry transformation, particularly in light of the real estate market entering a deep adjustment period [1] - The "Neutral Market View" encourages agents to objectively assess the market, recognizing risks during high periods and signs of recovery during downturns, promoting long-term market stability [2] - The real estate intermediary business is characterized as a "middleman economy," where the reputation of agents directly impacts consumer trust and decision-making [2] Group 3: Role of Technology - Beike has evolved from a transaction facilitator to an industry ecosystem builder, emphasizing the importance of agents as core assets [3] - The company is implementing strict penalties for non-compliant agents and addressing issues like false listings and price fraud, reflecting a commitment to ethical standards [3] - Technology, including big data and AI, is being leveraged to support the implementation of the "Neutral Market View," providing objective market analysis and real price evaluation tools [4][5] Group 4: Long-term Development - The adherence to the "Neutral Market View" aligns with the interests of consumers, the industry, and the government, promoting a stable market environment and preventing systemic risks [4] - The current deep adjustment in the real estate market presents both challenges and opportunities, with Beike's self-regulation actions marking a proactive response from leading industry players [5] - The transformation towards becoming market stabilizers, professional service providers, and trust builders is essential for the maturity and health of the Chinese real estate market [5]

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of urban retail landscape reflects significant changes in social economic structure and consumer behavior, with traditional clothing stores declining while real estate agencies, restaurants, and pharmacies thrive [1][11]. Group 1: Impact of E-commerce on Traditional Retail - The rise of e-commerce has severely impacted physical retail, as consumers prefer the convenience and competitive pricing of online shopping, leading to a significant diversion of traffic away from traditional stores [2]. - High operational costs for physical stores, including rent and employee wages, make it difficult for them to sustain profitability, especially when foot traffic has decreased to as low as one-third of previous levels [2]. - Changing consumer preferences, with a vast array of product choices available online, have reduced reliance on physical stores, further challenging traditional retail [2]. Group 2: Real Estate Agencies' Resilience - Real estate agencies thrive due to the complexity of property transactions, which require professional services that online platforms cannot fully replicate [3]. - The substantial monetary value of real estate transactions provides a lucrative profit margin for agencies, allowing them to cover operational costs with fewer transactions compared to retail [3]. - The unique nature of real estate, which involves significant life decisions, positions agencies as essential information hubs for consumers seeking guidance [3][11]. Group 3: Stability of the Restaurant Industry - The restaurant industry benefits from a fundamental demand for food, which remains constant regardless of economic conditions, providing a stable customer base [4][6]. - Lower entry barriers and the ability to innovate in menu offerings allow restaurants to adapt quickly to consumer preferences, attracting new entrepreneurs [6]. - Despite variability in individual restaurant performance, the overall demand for dining experiences ensures a vibrant market with continuous new entrants [6]. Group 4: Pharmacy Sector Dynamics - Pharmacies enjoy a stable customer flow due to the essential nature of their products, including medications and health-related items, which are less susceptible to economic fluctuations [8][10]. - The regulatory environment provides pharmacies with a degree of protection, ensuring consistent demand and profitability even with lower foot traffic [8]. - Pharmacies also benefit from selling high-margin health and personal care products, contributing to their financial stability [8][10]. Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The shift in consumer spending from clothing and general merchandise to essential services like housing, food, and health reflects a deeper transformation in consumption patterns [11][12]. - The increasing number of real estate agencies indicates a robust property market, while the challenges faced by traditional retail highlight the need for adaptation in business models [12]. - The evolution of consumer preferences suggests that businesses must innovate and enhance customer experiences to remain competitive in a changing landscape [12][13].

我有个朋友在房产中介公司做了五年，对这个行业相当熟悉。最近他跟我说了一件让他挺无奈的事情。他在最近的三个月里，一套房子都没有成交。这对一 个靠提成生活的房产中介来说，意味着什么呢？意味着他这三个月的收入几乎为零。就是因为这个原因，他现在在认真考虑要不要离开这个行业。 他跟我说，现在他们公司的气氛特别压抑。每个员工都在为业绩发愁。有些人已经选择了离职。有些人在咬牙坚持。整个房产中介行业，似乎都在经历一个 很困难的时期。他问我，这个行业是不是真的要完蛋了？ 这个问题激发了我的好奇心。我决定深入去了解一下，房产中介行业现在到底发生了什么。为什么会出现这样的"离职潮"呢？表面上看，原因好像很简单， 就是楼市不景气，房子不好卖。但深层的原因是什么呢？ 第四个原因就是新的销售模式的出现。现在，很多房产都可以直接通过开发商购买，不需要经过中介。有些城市的房产交易，甚至政府都在推行"跳过中 介"的模式。这直接冲击了传统房产中介的业务。 在这样的背景下，房产中介行业的日子就变得很难熬。成交量少了，提成就少了，收入就低了。很多中介就开始考虑离职。他们要么转向其他行业，要么回 到原籍，做其他的工作。 据我了解，现在一些大的房产中介 ...

当行业步入存量竞争，平台持续整治低质同质化内容，"僵尸号矩阵"早已沦为企业负资产，2026年的新媒体增长破局点，必然藏在KOS/KOC全员共创中。 这种"专业权威+真实口碑"双轮驱动的共创模式，既能通过KOS的垂直专业度构建品牌信任，又能借KOC的生活化表达引发用户共鸣，形成全链路营销闭环 ——这样的共创管理，谁能不爱？但想要解锁其价值，关键在于破解"管得太死缺活力，放得太松失调性"的困境，实现协同效率与内容质量的双重提升。 驭影KOS/KOC共创管理 先搞懂：2026年，为何必须做KOS/KOC全员共创？ 从用户端看，KOC以"真实用户"身份输出场景化内容，凭借去中心化传播打破用户对广告的戒备心，实现"信任裂变"；KOS则以销售顾问、行业专家等专业 人设，输出深度内容解答用户决策疑虑，缩短转化路径。正如顾家家居联动门店KOS以"家居顾问"人设创作内容，成功打通线上种草到线下到店的转化链 路，用专业信任撬动实际消费。 从品牌端看，共创模式能破解内容产能不足的行业痛点。新榜数据显示，60%的矩阵运营企业曾受困于内容产出难题，而KOS/KOC全员共创可借助群体力 量，形成"多元内容供给"，同时通过人设化运营打造差 ...

Core Viewpoint - The home decoration industry is experiencing a shift from traditional price wars to capital-driven acquisitions, fundamentally altering the competitive landscape. Companies like Beike, JD.com, and Yingfeng are leveraging their capital to acquire established players, posing a greater threat to traditional businesses than mere price competition [1][22][50]. Group 1: Beike's Strategy - In 2021, Beike acquired Saintu for 8 billion yuan, marking the largest merger in the home decoration industry that year, which was initially seen as a business expansion but revealed Beike's deeper ambitions [2][29]. - Saintu, founded in 2002, had revenues exceeding 4 billion yuan in 2020 and provided Beike with a mature supply chain and delivery capabilities, which were essential for Beike's growth [4][31]. - By mid-2025, Beike's home decoration business transformed from a marginal player to a significant profit generator, with total revenue from 2022 to 2024 reaching 30.747 billion yuan, and a net income of 10.9 billion yuan in 2023 [6][34]. Group 2: JD.com's Expansion - JD.com has been strategically entering the home decoration market since 2011, launching its home decoration channel and expanding its offline presence to over 300 stores by 2025 [11][38]. - In June 2025, JD.com acquired a stake in Sichuan Living Home, enhancing its offline delivery capabilities and integrating its online and offline services [13][41]. - JD.com has launched its self-operated home decoration brand stores and plans to create a comprehensive experience space that combines home decoration, home goods, and home appliances [15][43]. Group 3: Yingfeng's Moves - Yingfeng Group, under the leadership of He Jianfeng, has been quietly building a "big home" industry platform by acquiring leading home furnishing companies, including a 29.42% stake in Gujia Home for 8.88 billion yuan [16][44]. - Yingfeng's strategy includes integrating Gujia and Sophia to create a comprehensive ecosystem that combines soft furnishings and customized furniture with home appliances [21][49]. - Despite Sophia's declining revenue, Yingfeng sees potential in its brand value and the customized home furnishing sector, supported by Midea's supply chain and digital capabilities [22][49]. Group 4: Impact of Capital Acquisitions - Capital acquisitions are seen as more destructive than price wars because they fundamentally change the competitive dynamics of the industry, allowing companies to bypass traditional customer acquisition challenges [22][50]. - The shift from price competition to capital-driven acquisitions is leading to a concentration of resources among a few major players, diminishing the survival space for smaller companies [25][53]. - The entry of cross-industry players like Beike, JD.com, and Yingfeng signifies a transition from product and price competition to a deeper contest of capital and ecosystem integration [25][53].

Group 1 - Beike is reportedly undergoing a large-scale layoff, with rumors suggesting a 30% reduction in workforce, particularly affecting the R&D department and senior positions [2][3] - Employees have confirmed the N+4 compensation plan, but some believe it is misleading as it effectively amounts to N+1 plus three months of year-end bonus [2][3] - A source close to Beike claims the actual layoff figure is exaggerated, estimating it to be around 0.5%, which would affect approximately 650 employees based on a total workforce of about 131,800 [2][4] Group 2 - Beike's total employee count as of June 2025 is approximately 131,800, down by about 3,200 from the end of 2024 [4][5] - The company has faced significant pressure in its core real estate business, with net profit dropping by 36.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][6] Group 3 - The real estate market's overall downturn has impacted Beike's performance, with a 5.8% increase in existing home transaction volume to 505.6 billion RMB, but a 3.6% decline in net revenue to 6 billion RMB [6][7] - New home transactions fell by 13.7% to 196.3 billion RMB, leading to a 14.1% decrease in revenue from this segment [6][7] Group 4 - Beike's non-real estate business revenue has increased to 45% of total revenue, marking a historical high, as the company shifts focus to new business segments [6][8] - Despite the growth in non-real estate sectors, these new businesses face challenges with low profit margins, making it difficult to offset declines in traditional business profits [8] Group 5 - Beike has initiated a share buyback program, accumulating approximately 2.3 billion USD in repurchases, representing about 11.5% of its pre-buyback share capital [9] - Vanke has completely divested its stake in Beike, marking the end of their strategic partnership that began in 2015 [11]

Group 1 - Beike Zhaofang is reportedly undergoing a large-scale layoff, with rumors suggesting a 30% reduction in workforce, particularly affecting the R&D department and senior positions [2][3][4] - Employees have confirmed the N+4 compensation scheme, but some view it as misleading, equating it to N+1 plus three months of year-end bonus, which typically amounts to four months [2][3] - A source close to Beike claims the actual layoff figure is exaggerated, estimating it to be less than 0.5%, affecting around 650 employees out of approximately 131,800 total [2][4] Group 2 - Since 2021, Beike has faced multiple rounds of layoffs, with a total reduction of about 3,200 employees by mid-2025, as reported in their financial statements [4][5] - The company reported a significant decline in net profit of 36.1% year-on-year for Q3 2025, amidst ongoing pressures in the real estate sector [5][6] - Beike's new business revenue has reached 45% of total income, but the low profit margins of these new ventures are insufficient to offset declines in traditional business [6][7] Group 3 - Beike's Q3 2025 financial report shows total revenue of 23.05 billion RMB, a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, but net income dropped to 7.47 billion RMB [5][6] - The company is focusing on a strategic transformation towards "one body and three wings," which includes home decoration, rental services, and other emerging businesses [6][7] - Despite cost-cutting measures, R&D expenses increased by 13.2% to approximately 650 million RMB in Q3 2025, indicating a continued investment in technology [7] Group 4 - Beike's stock price has fallen over 70% from its peak, trading around 17.39 USD per share, prompting the company to initiate a buyback program totaling approximately 2.3 billion USD [8][10] - Vanke has completely divested its stake in Beike, ending a strategic partnership that began in 2015, which was marked by significant investments and collaborations [10][11] - The separation of Vanke and Beike is attributed to operational pressures and competitive conflicts that arose during their partnership [11]

Core Viewpoint - Beike Zhaofang is undergoing significant layoffs, with reports suggesting a potential 30% reduction in workforce, particularly affecting senior positions and long-tenured employees [1][2][3] Group 1: Layoff Details - Reports indicate that the layoffs may involve up to 30% of the workforce, with high percentages in the product and research departments [1][3] - Employees have confirmed the N+4 compensation scheme, which is perceived as less generous than it appears, effectively being N+1 plus three months of year-end bonus [2][3] - A source close to Beike claims that the actual layoff percentage is exaggerated, estimating it to be around 0.5%, affecting approximately 650 employees out of a total of 131,800 [2][4] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of June 2025, Beike's total employee count was approximately 131,800, down from 134,000 at the end of 2024, reflecting a reduction of about 3,200 employees [4][5] - Beike's net profit for Q3 2025 dropped by 36.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [6][8] - The company reported a revenue of 23.05 billion RMB for Q3 2025, a slight increase of 2.1% year-on-year, but faced a decline in net income due to challenges in the new housing market [6][7] Group 3: Strategic Shift - Beike is accelerating its transition to a "one body, three wings" strategy, with new business revenues accounting for 45% of total income, although these new ventures have lower profit margins [6][8] - The company is focusing on expanding its home decoration, rental services, and other emerging business segments to offset declines in traditional real estate operations [6][9] Group 4: Market Context - Beike's stock price has significantly declined, falling over 70% from its peak, with recent trading around 17.39 USD per share [10][11] - Vanke has completely divested its stake in Beike, marking the end of a strategic partnership that began in 2015, which may reflect broader market pressures [13][14]