Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the geopolitical factors affecting crude oil pricing and emphasizes the importance of OPEC+ future policies. It also focuses on the progress of PTA's anti-involution efforts and the ongoing elimination and upgrading of outdated facilities in the petrochemical industry [2]. - The petrochemical index performed well this week, increasing by 2.29% compared to the previous week, with oilfield services showing the best performance within the sector, rising by 5.23% [3][2]. Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices increased, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.49 per barrel, up by 1.4% from the previous week. U.S. crude oil inventories rose, along with gasoline inventories [7][9]. - The latest data indicates that U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2,524 thousand barrels, while total inventories (including strategic reserves) rose by 3,322 thousand barrels [13]. Polyester - The prices of polyester filament yarn increased, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices reported at 6,600, 7,850, and 6,830 yuan per ton, respectively, showing price differences that increased by 135, 85, and 165 yuan per ton compared to last week [16]. - Inventory days for polyester filament yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang varied, with FDY, DTY, and POY at 18.9, 23.8, and 12.2 days, respectively. The operating rate for filament yarn and downstream weaving machines decreased by 1.5% [19]. Olefins - The report notes that sample prices for polyolefins showed a slight decline, with current prices for PE and PP at 7,590 and 8,050 yuan per ton, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.43% for PE [25]. - The total petrochemical inventory for polyolefins was reported at 640,000 tons, down by 25,000 tons from the previous week [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the next three months, the supply side is expected to fluctuate slightly, combustion demand will steadily recover, and PDH plants may maintain high operation rates. However, with the expected increase in OPEC+ production, international propane prices are under pressure, and domestic refinery gas also faces significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is likely to fall rather than rise. Attention should be paid to PDH plant maintenance, OPEC+ policies, and geopolitical changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On September 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, the price of East China LPG increased by 17 yuan to 4380 yuan, Shandong decreased by 120 yuan to 4430 yuan, and South China decreased by 40 yuan to 4600 yuan. The price of etherified C4 increased by 70 yuan to 4620 yuan. The lowest delivery location was East China, with the basis increasing by 18 to 308 [1] Weekly Viewpoints - In the external market, Middle - East supplies are in tight balance, US inventories are at a historical high with high - load exports. The procurement needs of Japanese and Korean chemical industries, Chinese PDH plants, and Indian peak - season stockpiling support prices, but the warm - winter expectation may suppress Japanese and Korean restocking. The shipping freight from the US to the Far East has dropped significantly, and the arbitrage window is closed. Domestically, upstream inventory reduction and downstream restocking occurred simultaneously before the holiday, resulting in small price fluctuations [1] - The profit of PDH plants has improved (up about 200 yuan month - on - month) due to the decline in raw material arrival prices. Etherified C4 is not actively purchased due to weak terminal gasoline demand and poor plant profits. The expected increase in OPEC+ production puts pressure on international propane prices, and domestic refinery gas also has significant pressure, so the overall LPG price is expected to have limited upside [1]

Report Summary Core Views - The short - term pressure on crude oil is not significant, and the OPEC + policy in July should be monitored. Gold is under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Coke prices have weak support, and multiple rounds of price cuts are expected. Steel prices may oscillate weakly due to weak supply - demand and declining cost support. Iron ore prices may also oscillate weakly with balanced short - term supply and demand. [2][4][5] - The overall trend of the national pig price is strong, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change. Palm oil prices will oscillate, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. Domestic soybean prices are expected to run steadily. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate weakly with cost support. PTA may face over - capacity pressure in the long - term, and high - level chasing is not recommended. [6][8][9][10] - Silver is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. The bond market may oscillate slightly bearishly. Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Soda ash 09 contract will also oscillate in the short - term. Caustic soda 09 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term. [10][11][12][13] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - The implementation of OPEC + production increase was less than expected, so short - term pressure is not significant. It is in the OPEC + policy window period in July, and short - term trading is recommended. [2] Gold - Market expectations are that the US is more than 90% unlikely to cut interest rates in June. The US - EU tariff negotiation made progress, and the US dollar index rebounded, putting pressure on gold. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term. [2] Coke - Port inventories of coking coal and coke decreased. Coke prices have weak support. Steel mills have a strong expectation of price cuts, and the raw coal price decline provides room for coke price cuts. Two to three rounds of price cuts are expected this time, and there may be a fourth round if coal prices drop significantly in June. [4] Steel - Steel prices continued to decline. With the approaching rainy season and low real - estate new - construction willingness, the weak demand for steel in the off - season is difficult to change. The steel market may have weak supply and demand, and steel prices may oscillate weakly. [4] Iron Ore - Port inventories decreased, and the daily average port clearance volume increased. Iron ore supply decreased in the short - term, and demand pressure for steel enterprises to cut production passively is small. The short - term supply and demand are balanced, and prices may oscillate weakly. [5] Pig - The national pig price is generally strong. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change near the end of the month. Light - position short - term long trading can be tried, and farmers can consider selling hedging according to the slaughter rhythm. [6] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports increased in May. The production increase rate decreased, and exports increased. The price will oscillate, and high - selling and low - buying operations are recommended. [6] Soybean - South American soybeans arriving at ports can meet processing needs. Farmers' willingness to sell is strong, but the market is quiet. Domestic soybean prices are expected to run steadily, and it is recommended to wait for a callback to go long on soybean No. 1. [8] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are stable for glue and falling for cup - lump. Rubber prices are under pressure due to the expectation of zero - tariff between China and Thailand. However, there is cost support, and a weakly oscillating trend is expected. [9] PTA - PX supply is tight in the short - term but will increase marginally. PTA supply will increase slightly, and polyester inventory is high. In the long - term, over - capacity pressure will appear, and high - level chasing is not recommended. [10] Silver - US durable goods orders declined, and the economy is under downward pressure. The Fed's future interest - rate cut is uncertain. Silver is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium term. [10] Treasury Bonds - Industrial enterprise profits increased, which is beneficial to the stock market. The bond market logic is unclear, and a slightly bearish medium - term oscillation is expected. [11] Methanol - Coal prices are expected to be weak. Methanol production is expected to run at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. Port inventories may continue to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds. [12] Soda Ash - The price of heavy - soda ash is slowly declining. The start - up rate is slightly decreasing, and inventories are decreasing. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see. [12] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda plant start - up rate is high and stable. Enterprise inventories are decreasing. The 09 contract may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds. [13]

Market Overview - The current gold price is around $3315.44 per ounce, reflecting an increase of approximately 0.92% [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is expected to dominate market trends this week, with a focus on the FOMC meeting on May 7 [2] - The oil price has shown volatility, currently trading at approximately $57.27 per barrel after a low of $55.70 [5] Gold Analysis - Technical indicators suggest that gold has faced resistance at the $3300 level, with a potential upward movement towards $3330 if it breaks this resistance [4] - The MACD indicator shows a bearish trend, indicating a risk of further price declines despite recent rebounds [2][4] Oil Analysis - The oil market is influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but OPEC+ production increases and weak global economic recovery are limiting price gains [5] - The short-term outlook for oil remains bearish, with expectations of testing lower support levels around $55 [5] Investment Strategy - The suggested trading strategy for gold is to focus on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance at $3330-$3340 and support at $3300-$3290 [4] - For oil, the recommended approach is to sell on rallies while looking for buying opportunities on pullbacks, with resistance at $58.5-$59.0 and support at $55.5-$55.0 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy faces downward pressure as indicated by the significant decline in the Texas manufacturing index, leading to a weaker and volatile US dollar index [1][12]. - From late April to mid - May, treasury bond futures are expected to perform better than in the second half of April, and the strategy of buying on dips has increased cost - effectiveness [2][19]. - Steel prices are likely to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the market being rational and cautious about administrative production cuts [3][22]. - For zinc, the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose, and the logic of shorting on rallies is maintained, while attention should be paid to controlling positions due to potential impacts on the domestic manufacturing PMI from tariffs [4][45]. - Oil prices are fluctuating downward as the market awaits further clarification of OPEC+ policies [5][50]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Texas manufacturing index dropped to its lowest level since May 2020, indicating continued downward pressure on the US economy and a bearish outlook for the US dollar index in the short term [12][13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US Treasury has raised its borrowing estimates for the second and third quarters. Although the market has temporarily set aside concerns about long - term debt sustainability, the sustainability of the risk - preference repair needs further observation due to the emerging impact of tariffs [14][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank's deputy governor mentioned the potential for timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The market's core contradiction lies between the un - falsifiable expectation of loose monetary policy and the uncertainty of the implementation time of such policies. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of buying long - term treasury bond futures on dips [18][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Shanghai's major projects are accelerating. Steel prices are in a volatile pattern. The market is waiting for details of administrative production - control policies. It is recommended to view steel prices with a short - term oscillatory perspective and maintain a hedging mindset on rallies [21][23]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - In the East China market, coking coal prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Although there is some support for prices in the short term due to reduced supply and pre - holiday restocking demand, the medium - to long - term trend remains bearish [24][25]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - After the price decline, attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Southwest China during the wet season and the silicon wafer production schedule from May to June. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contracts [28]. 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rate of organic silicon monomers is expected to decline. The supply side may see marginal changes due to price drops. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions and wait for clear signals before considering bottom - fishing [29]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - Some salt factories plan to reduce production, but the demand is not expected to exceed expectations. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy in the second quarter [30][31]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metal (Copper) - Macro factors have a relatively neutral short - term impact on copper prices, while the short - term fundamentals are strong, supporting copper prices and the premium. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the Shanghai copper inter - period positive spread strategy [34][35]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metal (Nickel) - It is recommended to wait for dips to buy nickel, pay attention to position management, and hedge beta risks due to potential macro - sentiment fluctuations [38][39]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metal (Lead) - The short - term bearish logic for lead is dominant. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rallies and take profit on the internal - external reverse spread [40][41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metal (Zinc) - In the short term, zinc prices are supported, but the medium - term supply - demand situation remains loose. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies near the moving average and maintain a long - term internal - external positive spread strategy [42][45]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemical (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - LPG prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the impact of tariff policies and cost - profit squeezes [46][49]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemical (Crude Oil) - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits OPEC+ policies [50][51]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemical (Asphalt) - The fundamentals of asphalt are improving, but the impact on prices is limited due to relatively high inventory levels. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemical (PTA) - PTA prices are expected to be oscillatory and slightly bullish in the short term, but the rebound height will be restricted by the demand side in the long term [55][57]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemical (Caustic Soda) - After a short - term rebound, caustic soda prices weakened again, but the room for further decline is relatively limited [58][59]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemical (Pulp) - Pulp is expected to be in a weakly oscillatory pattern in the short term due to the large internal - external price gap and lack of significant positive news [60][61]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical (PVC) - PVC is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term as the short - term macro - impact has subsided [62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical (Styrene) - Styrene prices are oscillating weakly recently. The supply - demand structure is expected to be negatively affected by reduced supply - side disturbances and weakening downstream demand [63][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical (Bottle Chips) - The bottle chip industry shows a situation of both increasing supply and demand. Although there is no significant short - term contradiction, the supply pressure is increasing, and processing margins are under pressure [65][66]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical (Soda Ash) - In the medium term, a bearish view on soda ash is maintained, while short - term attention should be paid to the impact of summer maintenance on the 09 contract [67]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are expected to remain in a low - level range due to weak reality and lack of positive policies, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [69][70].