一个美国总统公开承认自己犯了"大错误"，这事本身就够反常了。更反常的是，这个错误指向的人，现在还坐在美联储主席的位子上，掌管着全球最有影响 力的货币政策。据美国福克斯新闻网2月9日报道，特朗普在接受采访时直言不讳地说，2018年提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席是他任内最大的失误。这场从8年 前就埋下的权力博弈，现在已经演变成白宫与美联储之间一场公开的撕裂战。 矛盾在今年1月彻底激化。据环球网报道，1月9日，美国司法部向美联储送达传票，威胁对鲍威尔在2025年6月参议院银行委员会就美联储办公楼翻新项目作 证一事提起刑事诉讼。 问题来了，一个国家的总统和央行行长闹到这个地步，受影响的会是谁？ 特朗普在福克斯新闻的镜头前说得很直白："我犯了个错误，他只是个备选。我的财政部长非常非常想要他，你知道，我对他的感觉不太好，但有时候会听 别人的意见。那是个错误，真是个大错误。" 这段话信息量很大。2018年2月，鲍威尔正式上任美联储主席时，外界普遍认为这是特朗普精心挑选的人选。但现在特朗普把责任推给了当时的财政部长， 暗示自己当初就有预感，只是没坚持己见。这种事后诸葛亮式的表态，实际上暴露出一个更深层的问题：白宫对美联储独立性的不 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Anta Sports, among others [1]. Core Insights - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and future monetary policy stability have led to a collective decline in overseas consumer sectors [4][11]. - The snack sector has shown resilience, outperforming the MSCI China index, while other sectors such as luxury goods and overseas sportswear have faced significant declines [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [9][15]. Sector Performance Summary - **Snack Sector**: Increased by 1.7%, with Wei Long's revenue guidance for 2026 projected to grow over 15% due to innovative products and channel expansion [6][14]. - **Jewelry Sector**: Rose by 1.6%, driven by Chow Tai Fook's strong operational performance expectations for FY26Q3 [6][14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Gained 1.1%, with E.L.F Beauty's sales growth exceeding previous guidance [6][14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Increased by 1.5%, with Li Ning's revenue meeting expectations and a positive outlook for net profit margins [8][14]. - **Pet Sector**: Grew by 0.3%, with strong annual growth despite a slight decline in December [8][14]. - **Gambling Sector**: Slight decline of 0.1%, with Galaxy Entertainment showing resilience as a preferred investment choice [8][14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Decreased by 0.3%, with expectations for recovery in 2026 [8][14]. - **Retail Sector**: Fell by 1.5%, with Target's positive leadership changes noted [8][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 2.9%, impacted by market concerns over credit risks following Saks Global's bankruptcy [8][14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Experienced a significant drop of 4.0%, with major brands like Nike and Adidas facing declines [8][14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Decreased by 5.1%, influenced by proposed caps on credit card interest rates [8][14]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential undervaluation: - Overseas Sportswear: 30.4x (57% of historical average) - Domestic Sportswear: 13.5x (71% of historical average) - Jewelry: 22.8x (43% of historical average) - Luxury Goods: 27.4x (49% of historical average) - Gambling: 16.2x (26% of historical average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 41.0x (61% of historical average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 27.3x (51% of historical average) - Pet Sector: 36.9x (50% of historical average) - Snack Sector: 29.8x (72% of historical average) - Retail: 29.9x (54% of historical average) - US Hotels: 34.8x (21% of historical average) - Credit Cards: 28.3x (54% of historical average) [9][15].

贵金属周报 2025 年 7 月 21 日 避险情绪升温，金银预计偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 贵金属周报 一、上周交易数据 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周国际金价呈震荡走势，而银价则在创历史新高之后出 现回落。美国与其他贸易国的谈判仍存在风险，且美联储 主席易主的传闻愈演愈烈，市场担忧美联储货币政策突然 转向的风险，但美国经济数据保持韧性，美元指数持续反 弹对贵金属价格形成压制。银价在创出39.57美 ...

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,464.10 tons on July 16, an increase of 16.99 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $38.13 per ounce on July 16, up 0.37%, with a daily high of $38.38 and a low of $37.75 [1] Group 2 - Speculation regarding President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell caused fluctuations in gold and silver prices, although Trump later denied immediate plans to fire Powell [3] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating the mildest annual growth since September of the previous year [3] - Market expectations suggest that precious metal prices may continue to show a strong oscillating trend due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff risks [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced volatility due to rumors about President Trump considering the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a drop in the US dollar index by 0.36% to 98.244 [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.463%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.959%, indicating fluctuations in bond markets amid the uncertainty [1] - Gold prices saw significant movement, initially rising above $3,370 per ounce before closing at $3,347.54, reflecting market reactions to the rumors and subsequent denial from Trump [1] Group 2 - The report indicated that Trump was contemplating Powell's dismissal due to a $2.5 billion cost overrun in a Federal Reserve building renovation project, which raised concerns about the stability of monetary policy [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, leading to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and trade war risks are expected to keep precious metal prices in a volatile but upward trend [1] Group 3 - Oil prices have been fluctuating within a range, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $66.60 per barrel after a slight decline of 0.13% [3] - The EIA reported a decrease of 3.859 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending July 11, which was significantly higher than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels [3] - Market sentiment regarding oil prices is mixed, with expectations of a potential oversupply later in the year contributing to the recent price movements [3][5]

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked significant debate, highlighting the complex political and economic dynamics at play [1][3] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell is exacerbated by Trump's criticism of Powell's cautious monetary policy, which contrasts with Trump's desire for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [3] - Trump's remarks have led to market anxiety, with concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Trump defended several controversial policies during the interview, including the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, while expressing frustration with judicial rulings that require due process [4] - Trump's belief in the effectiveness of his tariff policies is evident, as he claims that companies are gradually relocating production facilities back to the U.S., despite the negative impact on domestic businesses and consumers [4] - The discussion around Trump's potential third term candidacy has evolved, with him indicating a preference to pass the presidency to capable Republican successors after his current term [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound, with major indices rising for the second consecutive trading day, driven by expectations of easing trade tensions [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 419.59 points, or 1.07%, closing at 39,606.57 points; the S&P 500 rose by 1.67% to 5,375.86 points; and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.50% to close at 16,708.05 points [1][2] - Despite the gains, all three indices failed to maintain their intraday highs, with the Dow at one point up over 1,100 points and the S&P up 3.44% [1] Trade Policy Impact - Investor sentiment improved significantly due to positive signals regarding trade policy, with the US Treasury Secretary indicating the potential for a "significant trade agreement" [6][9] - President Trump announced plans to "substantially reduce" tariffs on Chinese goods, which was echoed by Treasury Secretary Becerra, suggesting that high tariffs on Chinese goods are unsustainable [11][10] - The easing of trade tensions has led to a recovery in stocks with high external exposure, particularly among major tech companies, with Apple rising over 2% and Nvidia increasing by more than 3% [9] Monetary Policy Stability - The market also received support from expectations of stability in monetary policy, as President Trump stated he had no intention of replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, enhancing confidence in future monetary policy independence [9][11] - Analysts noted that the market is highly sensitive to any signs of easing tensions, as ongoing policy confrontations have pressured global supply chains and corporate earnings [9] Tesla's Performance - Tesla's stock surged over 5% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement that he would dedicate more time to the company, alleviating investor concerns about his divided attention [13] - Tesla reported a significant decline in Q1 net profit to $409 million, down 71% year-over-year, attributed to competitive pressures and reputational impacts from Musk's role in the Trump administration [15] - The company's revenue for Q1 was $19.335 billion, a 9.2% decrease year-over-year, falling short of market expectations [15]