Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating conflict between the White House and the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on former President Trump's admission that nominating Jerome Powell as Fed Chair was his biggest mistake, indicating a desire for a more compliant central bank leader [1][9]. Group 1: Trump’s Criticism of Powell - Trump has publicly criticized Powell multiple times for the Fed's monetary policy and has even threatened to remove him from his position, which is unusual in U.S. political history [2]. - The Federal Reserve is designed to operate independently to avoid political interference, but Trump seeks a chair who aligns with his economic policies and is willing to lower interest rates when needed [2]. Group 2: Powell's Independence - Powell's term as Fed Chair is set to end on May 15, 2026, and he has maintained his independence by making decisions based on economic data rather than political pressure [2][5]. - In a recent press conference, Powell advised his successor not to get involved in electoral politics, reinforcing the importance of the Fed's independence [5]. Group 3: Potential Successor Kevin Walsh - Trump has expressed confidence in Kevin Walsh as a potential successor to Powell, citing his experience during the 2008 financial crisis [6]. - However, the confirmation process requires Senate approval, and the Senate's stance on the Fed's independence may not align with Trump's preferences [6]. Group 4: Implications for Monetary Policy - The ongoing power struggle between the White House and the Fed could undermine the stability and predictability of U.S. monetary policy, which is crucial for global investors [6][9]. - If political factors begin to dominate monetary policy, it could lead to increased market uncertainty and higher risk premiums, ultimately affecting global economic stability [7]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Trump's public acknowledgment of his mistake and his early nomination of a successor signal a desire for the Fed to act as a facilitator of White House economic policy rather than an independent entity [9]. - The outcome of this power struggle will become clearer after Powell's term ends, with potential long-term consequences for the credibility of the Federal Reserve [9].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Nike, Midea Group, JD Group, and Anta Sports, among others [1]. Core Insights - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve and future monetary policy stability have led to a collective decline in overseas consumer sectors [4][11]. - The snack sector has shown resilience, outperforming the MSCI China index, while other sectors such as luxury goods and overseas sportswear have faced significant declines [4][11]. - The report highlights that most sectors are currently undervalued compared to their historical averages, indicating potential investment opportunities [9][15]. Sector Performance Summary - **Snack Sector**: Increased by 1.7%, with Wei Long's revenue guidance for 2026 projected to grow over 15% due to innovative products and channel expansion [6][14]. - **Jewelry Sector**: Rose by 1.6%, driven by Chow Tai Fook's strong operational performance expectations for FY26Q3 [6][14]. - **Overseas Cosmetics**: Gained 1.1%, with E.L.F Beauty's sales growth exceeding previous guidance [6][14]. - **Domestic Sportswear**: Increased by 1.5%, with Li Ning's revenue meeting expectations and a positive outlook for net profit margins [8][14]. - **Pet Sector**: Grew by 0.3%, with strong annual growth despite a slight decline in December [8][14]. - **Gambling Sector**: Slight decline of 0.1%, with Galaxy Entertainment showing resilience as a preferred investment choice [8][14]. - **Domestic Cosmetics**: Decreased by 0.3%, with expectations for recovery in 2026 [8][14]. - **Retail Sector**: Fell by 1.5%, with Target's positive leadership changes noted [8][14]. - **Luxury Goods**: Declined by 2.9%, impacted by market concerns over credit risks following Saks Global's bankruptcy [8][14]. - **Overseas Sportswear**: Experienced a significant drop of 4.0%, with major brands like Nike and Adidas facing declines [8][14]. - **Credit Card Sector**: Decreased by 5.1%, influenced by proposed caps on credit card interest rates [8][14]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential undervaluation: - Overseas Sportswear: 30.4x (57% of historical average) - Domestic Sportswear: 13.5x (71% of historical average) - Jewelry: 22.8x (43% of historical average) - Luxury Goods: 27.4x (49% of historical average) - Gambling: 16.2x (26% of historical average) - Overseas Cosmetics: 41.0x (61% of historical average) - Domestic Cosmetics: 27.3x (51% of historical average) - Pet Sector: 36.9x (50% of historical average) - Snack Sector: 29.8x (72% of historical average) - Retail: 29.9x (54% of historical average) - US Hotels: 34.8x (21% of historical average) - Credit Cards: 28.3x (54% of historical average) [9][15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the international gold price showed a volatile trend, while the silver price fell after hitting a record high. The negotiation between the US and other trading countries still has risks, and the rumor of the change of the Fed Chairman is intensifying. The market is worried about the risk of a sudden shift in the Fed's monetary policy. However, the US economic data remains resilient, and the continuous rebound of the US dollar index suppresses the precious metal prices. The silver price adjusted due to profit - taking by some funds after reaching a record high of $39.57 per ounce [4][7]. - On Wednesday last week, the media reported that Trump was considering removing Fed Chairman Powell because of a $2.5 - billion cost overrun in the Fed building renovation project. Although Trump denied that he would immediately fire Powell, he did not clearly rule out this possibility, which triggered market speculation and concern. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the selection process for the next Fed Chairman has officially started and called on Powell to resign as a director after leaving the chairmanship [7]. - Fed Governor Waller has become the main internal candidate to replace Powell as chairman, especially considering his clear support for interest rate cuts this year. Waller said that if nominated, he would accept the position [8]. - As the August 1st deadline approaches, the negotiations between many countries and the US are in a tense sprint. Trump plans to impose 10% or 15% tariffs on more than 150 countries, and the US is expected to maintain a 25% tariff on Japan and may soon reach an agreement with India [8]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly. Uncertainty remains high, causing businesses to remain cautious. Tourism activities fluctuated, manufacturing activities declined slightly, and non - financial service activities remained almost unchanged on average, but there were differences among regions. The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [8]. - The intensifying rumor of the change of the Fed Chairman has triggered market concerns about the stability of monetary policy. As the tariff game between the US and other trading countries will become more intense as August 1st approaches, it is expected that the precious metal prices will show a volatile and upward - biased trend [4][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate/% | Total Trading Volume/Hands | Total Open Interest/Hands | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 777.02 | 3.46 | 0.45 | 202287 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 773.37 | - 2.76 | - 0.36 | 24176 | 204452 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3355.50 | - 14.80 | - 0.44 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9273 | 233 | 2.58 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9211 | 27 | 0.29 | 403720 | 3407420 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.43 | - 0.65 | - 1.66 | | | US dollars/ounce | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The international gold price showed a volatile trend last week, and the silver price fell after hitting a record high. The US - trade negotiation risks and the Fed Chairman change rumor led to market concerns about the sudden shift of the Fed's monetary policy. The resilient US economic data and the rebound of the US dollar index suppressed the precious metal prices. The silver price adjusted due to profit - taking [7]. - The rumor of Trump considering removing Powell and the start of the selection process for the next Fed Chairman have increased market uncertainty. Waller is a potential candidate for the Fed Chairman position [7][8]. - As the August 1st deadline approaches, the tariff game between the US and other countries will intensify, and it is expected that the precious metal prices will be volatile and upward - biased [8]. - This week, focus on the preliminary value of the European July PMI and the preliminary value of the US June durable goods orders month - on - month. Also, pay attention to Powell's speech and the progress of US - foreign trade negotiations [9]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US June CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the highest since February, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations. Traders predict that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in September and cut interest rates nearly twice by the end of the year [10]. - The US June PPI was flat month - on - month, and the May data was revised up to a 0.3% increase. It had the most moderate annual increase since last September, rising 2.3% year - on - year. The core PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services was also flat, rising 2.5% year - on - year, the smallest increase since the end of 2023 [10]. - The US June retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%, and the previous value was a 0.9% decrease. Retail sales rebounded strongly, mainly driven by automobile sales [10]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7000 to 221,000, the fifth consecutive weekly decline, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the job market [10]. - The preliminary value of the US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 61.8, a five - month high. The 5 - year inflation expectation preliminary value was 3.6%, a five - month low [11]. - Japan's June core CPI fell back to 3.3% year - on - year but has exceeded the central bank's 2% target for 39 consecutive months. The "core - core" CPI, which is more concerned by the Bank of Japan, actually rose to 3.4%, indicating that potential inflationary pressure still exists [11]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, the inventory changes of COMEX gold and silver, the non - commercial position changes of gold and silver futures, the price differences between domestic and foreign markets, and the relationships between gold prices and various factors such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [12][13][14][17][18][23][25][27][29][32][34]

Group 1 - COMEX silver inventory recorded at 15,464.10 tons on July 16, an increase of 16.99 tons from the previous day [1][2] - COMEX silver price closed at $38.13 per ounce on July 16, up 0.37%, with a daily high of $38.38 and a low of $37.75 [1] Group 2 - Speculation regarding President Trump's potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell caused fluctuations in gold and silver prices, although Trump later denied immediate plans to fire Powell [3] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, indicating the mildest annual growth since September of the previous year [3] - Market expectations suggest that precious metal prices may continue to show a strong oscillating trend due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff risks [3]

Group 1 - The market experienced volatility due to rumors about President Trump considering the dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which led to a drop in the US dollar index by 0.36% to 98.244 [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.463%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.959%, indicating fluctuations in bond markets amid the uncertainty [1] - Gold prices saw significant movement, initially rising above $3,370 per ounce before closing at $3,347.54, reflecting market reactions to the rumors and subsequent denial from Trump [1] Group 2 - The report indicated that Trump was contemplating Powell's dismissal due to a $2.5 billion cost overrun in a Federal Reserve building renovation project, which raised concerns about the stability of monetary policy [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a monthly increase of 0.3%, leading to market expectations that the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts [1] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and trade war risks are expected to keep precious metal prices in a volatile but upward trend [1] Group 3 - Oil prices have been fluctuating within a range, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $66.60 per barrel after a slight decline of 0.13% [3] - The EIA reported a decrease of 3.859 million barrels in crude oil inventories for the week ending July 11, which was significantly higher than the expected decrease of 552,000 barrels [3] - Market sentiment regarding oil prices is mixed, with expectations of a potential oversupply later in the year contributing to the recent price movements [3][5]

Group 1 - Trump's recent statements regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have sparked significant debate, highlighting the complex political and economic dynamics at play [1][3] - The ongoing tension between Trump and Powell is exacerbated by Trump's criticism of Powell's cautious monetary policy, which contrasts with Trump's desire for interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy [3] - Trump's remarks have led to market anxiety, with concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve and the potential for political interference in monetary policy [3] Group 2 - Trump defended several controversial policies during the interview, including the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, while expressing frustration with judicial rulings that require due process [4] - Trump's belief in the effectiveness of his tariff policies is evident, as he claims that companies are gradually relocating production facilities back to the U.S., despite the negative impact on domestic businesses and consumers [4] - The discussion around Trump's potential third term candidacy has evolved, with him indicating a preference to pass the presidency to capable Republican successors after his current term [4]

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a strong rebound, with major indices rising for the second consecutive trading day, driven by expectations of easing trade tensions [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 419.59 points, or 1.07%, closing at 39,606.57 points; the S&P 500 rose by 1.67% to 5,375.86 points; and the Nasdaq Composite surged by 2.50% to close at 16,708.05 points [1][2] - Despite the gains, all three indices failed to maintain their intraday highs, with the Dow at one point up over 1,100 points and the S&P up 3.44% [1] Trade Policy Impact - Investor sentiment improved significantly due to positive signals regarding trade policy, with the US Treasury Secretary indicating the potential for a "significant trade agreement" [6][9] - President Trump announced plans to "substantially reduce" tariffs on Chinese goods, which was echoed by Treasury Secretary Becerra, suggesting that high tariffs on Chinese goods are unsustainable [11][10] - The easing of trade tensions has led to a recovery in stocks with high external exposure, particularly among major tech companies, with Apple rising over 2% and Nvidia increasing by more than 3% [9] Monetary Policy Stability - The market also received support from expectations of stability in monetary policy, as President Trump stated he had no intention of replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, enhancing confidence in future monetary policy independence [9][11] - Analysts noted that the market is highly sensitive to any signs of easing tensions, as ongoing policy confrontations have pressured global supply chains and corporate earnings [9] Tesla's Performance - Tesla's stock surged over 5% following CEO Elon Musk's announcement that he would dedicate more time to the company, alleviating investor concerns about his divided attention [13] - Tesla reported a significant decline in Q1 net profit to $409 million, down 71% year-over-year, attributed to competitive pressures and reputational impacts from Musk's role in the Trump administration [15] - The company's revenue for Q1 was $19.335 billion, a 9.2% decrease year-over-year, falling short of market expectations [15]