加拿大万万没想到，跟着美国对中国挥舞关税大棒，最后反倒把自己给砸了。从对华电动汽车狠征100%关税，到现在自家农产品被中方收75.8%保证金，这 一来一回，加拿大算是尝到了什么叫"搬石头砸自己的脚"。 去年8月底，加拿大突然宣布，从10月1日起对中国电动汽车加征100%关税，10月22日起对中国钢铝产品加征25%关税。表面上打着"保护本国产业"的旗 号，实际上就是在配合美国的"印太战略"，向老大哥表忠心。 可加拿大显然低估了中方反制的决心，2024年9月9日，中国商务部宣布对加拿大油菜籽进行反倾销立案调查。今年3月8日，中方开始动真格的了。国务院关 税税则委员会发布公告，从3月20日起对加拿大菜籽油、豌豆等产品加征100%关税，猪肉和水产品征收25%额外关税，刀刀砍在加拿大最疼的地方。 但真正让加拿大傻眼的，是8月12日。中国商务部经过近一年调查，最终认定加拿大油菜籽存在倾销，决定从8月14日起对所有加企征收75.8%的保证金。这 个数字意味着什么？加拿大油菜籽理事会主席克里斯·戴维森直言：这相当于"关上了加拿大油菜籽进入中国市场的大门"。 屋漏偏逢连夜雨，加拿大本想向美国老大哥求助，结果特朗普不但不帮忙，还 ...

以前加拿大为了跟随美国的步伐，不仅和我国附近一些不友好的国家进行一些联合军演，还针对我国出口部分货物进行加税，表面是为了保护自己国家货物 实际上就是为了响应美国的号召。 可是加拿大万万没想到聪明反被聪明误，到头来是自讨苦吃，现在的加拿大想要登门道歉，希望我国高抬贵手放过加拿大！ 加拿大从强硬扣押孟晚舟女士，到如今急切寻求最高级别的对话，加拿大到底经历了怎样的切肤之痛？ 当加拿大选择在跟随美国的脚步时，可能没想到中国的反击来的如此迅速。中国和加拿大价值连城的油菜籽订单化为泡影；伴随着公告一出，多种核心商品 被加征高达100%的惩罚性关税。 面对国内飙升的失业率和农民仓库中堆积如山的滞销产品，加拿大高层坐不住了。据路透社报道在近期的联合国大会上，加拿大总理卡尼与外长先后释放出 希望访华并与中方高层会晤的信号。 中加关系的恶化，就是因为加拿大在外交与贸易政策上，慢慢放弃了自主性，沦为美国"遏华"战略的执行者。这种外交策略让加拿大自身付出了巨大的的代 价。 自前总理特鲁多执政时期开始，加拿大便积极配合美国的所谓"印太战略"，频繁派遣军舰闯入中国周边海域，与我国不友好的国家举行联合军演，制造地区 的紧张局势。 但事实恰 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian government announced a CAD 370 million subsidy for the canola industry, but this measure has not alleviated domestic dissatisfaction due to the significant impact of tariffs and China's anti-dumping measures on Canadian canola exports [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Dependency and Trade Relations - The Canadian canola industry heavily relies on the Chinese market, with nearly 50% of its total exports going to China [1]. - China's imposition of a 75.8% deposit policy on Canadian canola has severely disrupted exports, leading to substantial losses for farmers and exporters [1][3]. - The Canadian government faces a trade crisis stemming from its own policies, necessitating a reevaluation of its tariff strategy on Chinese electric vehicles [1][3]. Group 2: Government Response and Industry Sentiment - The government's response, including the CAD 370 million subsidy, is viewed as inadequate by industry leaders, who emphasize the need for restored normal trade relations rather than financial aid [3][5]. - Farmers in Saskatchewan express concerns that without resolving trade disputes with China, they will face significant economic losses [3][5]. - The Canadian government is beginning to reconsider its approach, indicating a shift towards more pragmatic policies in light of domestic pressures and China's retaliatory measures [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Reevaluation - The Canadian government recognizes the severity of the situation, understanding that subsidies alone cannot resolve the industry's challenges; restoring trade with China is paramount [5][8]. - There is a growing acknowledgment that Canada must reassess its trade policies with China, as losing this market would have profound economic implications [5][8]. - The current situation tests Canada's diplomatic acumen and strategic resolve, as it must balance ally policies with the need for pragmatic engagement with China [8].

2025 年 06 月 23 日 供扰需稳，下方有限 ---2025 年豆粕期货半年度行情展望 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：豆粕期货价格下方空间有限。 我们的逻辑：1）供应端存在扰动因素。① 新作全球大豆供需收紧。2025/26 年度全球大豆供应增幅不及需求增 幅，库存消费比下降、供需收紧。② 美豆平衡表偏紧。2025 年美豆产量下降，因为低价驱动种植意愿下降。我 们认为，美豆产量仍有下降空间，因为产区天气不完美、单产有下调空间。美豆需求增加，内需增长抵消出口 下降。低价抑制生产、促进消费是美豆平衡表收紧的核心逻辑。③ 豆粕实际供应存在不确定性。我们暂以季节 性特点预估：年中偏宽松、四季度减少。2）需求稳中有增。2025 年 2～3 季度生猪存栏量和饲料产量预计同比 增加，低价豆粕饲用比例降幅有限。 风险提示：2025 年美豆种植面积同比增加、全球大豆供需重回宽松周期、超预期经济风险。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next week (06.09 - 06.13), the price center of Dalian soybean meal futures is expected to move up, while the soybean No. 1 futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For soybean meal, continue to focus on the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas (goodness - of - growth rate, weather forecast) and Sino - U.S. trade consultations. The Sino - Canadian trade friction and consultations also affect the fluctuation of rapeseed meal, which indirectly impacts soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the upper pressure is still the potential state - reserve soybean auction, while the small amount of market surplus grain and the stable - to - strong spot price support the downside space [7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **U.S. Soybean Sales and Shipment**: In the week of May 29, 2025, the weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans increased month - on - month but were at the lower end of expectations. The 2024/25 U.S. soybean export shipment was about 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 47%, and the cumulative export shipment was about 44.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans to China in the 2024/25 crop year was - 0.1 million tons [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Planting Progress and Goodness - of - Growth Rate**: As of the week of June 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 84%, compared with 78% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The initial goodness - of - growth rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68% and significantly lower than last year's 72%. However, the market focused more on the bearish impact of the faster planting progress and normal weather [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean CNF Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit**: As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [2]. - **U.S. Soybean - Producing Area Weather Forecast**: According to the June 7, 2025, weather forecast, in the next two weeks (June 7 - June 21), the precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and the temperature will be "low first and then high", with a neutral impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 80,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 186,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average basis was about - 61 yuan/ton, compared with about - 25 yuan/ton in the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of May 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 50% and a year - on - year decrease of about 66% [5]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased slightly week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons, and the operating rate was about 63%. Next week (June 7 - June 13), the oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to be about 2.29 million tons, with an operating rate of 64% [5]. Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable to strong. In some northeastern regions, the net - grain purchase price of soybeans increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; in some inland regions, the price remained flat at 5140 - 5280 yuan/ton; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton to 4620 - 4840 yuan/ton [6]. - **New - Season Soybean Growth in Northeast China**: In some northeastern producing areas, the new - season soybeans are growing well. As of Friday, the new - season soybeans in Heihe, Bei'an, Qiqihar, and Arongqi areas are growing well, and the soil moisture is normal due to recent rainfall [6]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas continued to make up for the increase, but the demand remained weak. The downstream market accepted the price increase generally and purchased as needed. The demand for terminal edible soybeans was weak, and the sales of domestic soybeans were slow, but the rigid demand still existed [6]. Futures Price Performance - **U.S. Futures**: In the week of June 6, 2025, the main U.S. soybean 07 contract rose 1.51% week - on - week, and the main U.S. soybean meal 07 contract fell 0.10% week - on - week [1]. - **Domestic Futures**: In the week of June 6, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal m2509 contract rose 1.42% week - on - week, and the main soybean No. 1 a2507 contract rose 0.78% week - on - week [2].