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浙商证券:A股正处于历史上第一次“系统性‘慢’牛”
智通财经网· 2025-08-11 13:21
Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing its first "systematic slow bull" since 2005, driven by improved risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates, alongside China's rise and advantages [1][3]. Historical Context - Since the initiation of the stock reform in April 2005, the A-share market has undergone four bull markets, with the first three being "systematic bull markets" characterized by steep upward slopes, while the fourth was a "structural bull market" with a gentler slope. The fifth bull market is expected to commence in 2025 [2]. Macro Factors - The combination of enhanced risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates is fostering a "systematic bull market." Key factors include supportive policies, a stable response to trade tensions, and recognition of China's military capabilities. Additionally, the significant drop in risk-free interest rates is likely to attract new capital into the A-share market [3]. Technical and Quantitative Factors - The report highlights four key factors supporting the "systematic slow bull": the stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the upward trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, the "rolling peak" structure of the index, and the divergence in sector performance, indicating a unique "systematic slow bull" [4]. Investment Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "1+X" allocation approach focusing on "big finance + broad technology" to enhance success rates, while also considering undervalued real estate and engineering machinery for higher returns. Additionally, it recommends focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy with external advantages, as well as banks that serve as defensive "ballast" [5].