Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2025 is an atypical volatile bond market. From the perspective of fund product net value and interest - rate bond yield changes, it is a bear market, while from the perspective of credit bonds, it is a bull market [3][6]. - There are four direct reasons for the poor experience in the bond market in 2025: the overdraft effect at the end of last year, less - than - expected monetary easing, intensified supervision, and increased risk appetite [3][9]. - There are four underlying macro - logical reasons: the after - effect of the "924" policy and broad fiscal support for economic stability, repeated Sino - US trade frictions but resilient exports, the continuation of Fed rate cuts and de - dollarization along with policies boosting the risk appetite of the stock and commodity markets, and profound changes in institutional behavior in a low - interest - rate environment [3][14]. - The bond market in 2025 is divided into four stages, with different driving factors and yield changes in each stage [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Four Direct Reasons and Macro - logical Reasons for the Atypical Volatile Market Direct Reasons - **Overdraft effect at the end of last year**: At the end of 2025, the expectation of broad monetary policy and the pre - emptive allocation before the New Year led to a "fast - bull" market. In late November 2025, the market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut increased, and the bond yield dropped rapidly after the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference [9]. - **Less - than - expected monetary easing**: The market expected significant interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts at the beginning of the year, but only one round of cuts occurred in May, and other tools were used to maintain liquidity [9][10]. - **Intensified supervision**: In early August, the government announced the resumption of VAT on new government and financial bonds, and in September, a draft of new regulations on public funds was released, increasing the redemption fee and causing concerns in the market [10]. - **Increased risk appetite and the stock - bond seesaw**: After the reciprocal tariffs, expectations of domestic policy stimulus, tariff cuts, a weakening US dollar, and other factors led to an increase in risk assets. The implementation of anti - involution policies also boosted the commodity market [10]. Macro - logical Reasons - **Policy support for economic stability**: The "924" policy in 2024 and broad fiscal measures supported economic stability, with the GDP in the first half of 2025 growing by 5.3% year - on - year [14]. - **Resilient exports despite trade frictions**: Sino - US trade frictions had two unexpected turns, but China's exports remained resilient, and the bond market's reaction to trade frictions gradually became dull [14]. - **Boosted risk appetite**: Fed rate cuts, de - dollarization, and domestic policies such as the anti - involution policy and the development of the AI industry increased the risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets [19]. - **Changed institutional behavior**: In a low - interest - rate environment, the enthusiasm of institutional investors for bond investment decreased, and the market's cautious attitude restricted the downward space for interest rates [22]. 2. Four - stage Review of the 2025 Bond Market Stage One (January 1 - March 17) - The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.6% to 1.9%. The market mainly traded around the correction of the broad - money expectation, with many negative factors such as Sino - US trade issues, a tech boom, and tightened liquidity [28]. Stage Two (March 18 - June 30) - The 10 - year Treasury yield first dropped significantly and then fluctuated, ranging from 1.6% to 1.9%. The market focused on the loosening of liquidity and Sino - US trade frictions, and the impact of trade frictions gradually weakened [34]. Stage Three (July 1 - September 30) - The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 1.6% to around 1.9%. The market was mainly affected by the anti - involution policy, a booming equity market, and strict regulations [42]. Stage Four (October 1 - Present) - The 10 - year Treasury yield fluctuated weakly in the range of 1.8% - 1.85%. The bond market was insensitive to trade frictions, and the expectation of monetary easing was not strong [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed has shifted to a dovish stance. In the short term, it has signaled a clear intention to cut interest rates in September. Powell believes that under restrictive policies, the balance of risks has been broken, and the risk of a downward trend in the labor market has increased. The inflation increase caused by tariffs is one - time, greatly increasing the possibility of a September interest rate cut. In the long term, the Fed's monetary policy emphasizes employment more, and the framework has returned to before 2020 [1]. - The macro - strategy is to increase risk appetite in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risks before the Fed's balance - sheet policy changes. Different asset strategies are proposed for dollars, US Treasuries, Chinese bonds, and commodities [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fed's Dovish Shift - The Fed's short - term signal for a September rate cut is due to the labor market's downward risk and the one - time nature of tariff - induced inflation. In the long term, the new monetary policy framework has removed descriptions of the zero - lower bound and average inflation target, and changed the description of employment from "shortfall" to "deviation", emphasizing the importance of the labor market [1]. Macro - strategy - **Dollars**: Short - term risk appetite in the market has increased. Short - term volatility long positions (+VIX) should be stopped and observed. Attention should be paid to the pressure on non - US assets from the increased risk appetite for US dollar assets, and continue to short the euro against the US dollar on rallies (-EUR) [2]. - **US Treasuries**: Maintain the flexibility of US dollar assets. It is expected that the yield curve will steepen as risk appetite increases (-2s10s). In terms of trends, pay attention to the impact of August non - farm payrolls on the Fed's September rate - cut pricing (+2s) [2]. - **Chinese Bonds**: Hold strategic steepening positions (+2s10s). Temporarily pay attention to the short - term pressure on non - US curve structures after the implementation of the Fed's new monetary policy framework. Keep the judgment of being bearish on T and TL (due to fiscal expansion) but not short - selling (due to short - term risk uncertainty), and pay attention to the opportunities provided by the August US non - farm payroll report [2]. - **Commodities**: Against the backdrop of the Fed's improved liquidity expectations, the expected weakening of total demand due to employment risks and the expected weakening of total supply due to anti - involution policies. Pay attention to the strengthening of the differentiation between domestic and foreign commodities in the short term under the improved risk - appetite state. Increase domestic - demand industrial products such as black and chemical products, and reduce external - demand industrial products such as energy and copper. In the long run, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of external - demand industrial commodities after adjustments [2]. Market Data and Trends - As of August 23, the market's pricing of the probability of a Fed rate cut within the year remained at 83.9%, and there was no significant increase in August. The market may be waiting for further signals from the early - September non - farm payroll report. The probability of the Fed continuing to cut rates during Powell's tenure in the first half of 2026 was 58.3%, slightly higher than 50% [6][8]. - The global major central banks have been in a rate - cut state in the past three months. The relatively loose financial conditions have led to the expectation of the Fed's continued loose monetary policy, driving the improvement of market risk appetite, and the pressure on the relatively high - level US stocks may be postponed in the short term [14][18][19]. Strategy Tracking - The table shows the tracking of the Fed's trading macro - strategies from July 25 to August 25, including strategies for dollars, US Treasuries, and Chinese bonds, such as holding, short - selling, and stop - loss operations [22]. Labor Market - The growth rate of the US labor market stock is continuing to slow down, and the incremental data from the private - sector survey of the labor market is also facing downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the September non - farm payroll report [23][24][21].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities indicates that the A-share market is currently experiencing its first "systematic slow bull" since 2005, driven by improved risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates, alongside China's rise and advantages [1][3]. Historical Context - Since the initiation of the stock reform in April 2005, the A-share market has undergone four bull markets, with the first three being "systematic bull markets" characterized by steep upward slopes, while the fourth was a "structural bull market" with a gentler slope. The fifth bull market is expected to commence in 2025 [2]. Macro Factors - The combination of enhanced risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates is fostering a "systematic bull market." Key factors include supportive policies, a stable response to trade tensions, and recognition of China's military capabilities. Additionally, the significant drop in risk-free interest rates is likely to attract new capital into the A-share market [3]. Technical and Quantitative Factors - The report highlights four key factors supporting the "systematic slow bull": the stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD, the upward trend of the Shanghai Composite Index, the "rolling peak" structure of the index, and the divergence in sector performance, indicating a unique "systematic slow bull" [4]. Investment Recommendations - The investment strategy suggests a "1+X" allocation approach focusing on "big finance + broad technology" to enhance success rates, while also considering undervalued real estate and engineering machinery for higher returns. Additionally, it recommends focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy with external advantages, as well as banks that serve as defensive "ballast" [5].

Group 1 - The report identifies that the A-share market is currently experiencing its first "systematic slow bull" since 2005, driven by improved risk appetite and declining risk-free interest rates, alongside China's rise and advantages [1][3][22] - The report outlines that since the initiation of the "924" policy in September 2024, the market has established a long-term bottom, leading to the commencement of the fifth bull market in April 2025 [2][15][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on "big finance + broad technology" sectors for investment, suggesting a "1+X" allocation strategy to enhance win rates [1][4][22] Group 2 - The report highlights that the historical context of A-share markets includes four previous bull markets, with the first three being "systematic bull markets" characterized by steep upward slopes, while the fourth was a "structural bull market" with a more gradual increase [2][13][14] - It notes that the current "slow bull" market is supported by four key factors: the stable appreciation of the RMB against the USD, positive technical trends, a favorable chip structure, and differentiated sector performance [4][22] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive to investments in innovative pharmaceuticals and renewable energy, which are expected to benefit from external advantages and improving market conditions [1][4][22]

Group 1 - The average daily trading volume in the market was approximately 15,463 billion yuan, with micro liquidity showing differentiation [1] - Growth style outperformed value style, and small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks [1] - The telecommunications, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors performed well, while media, real estate, and public utilities lagged [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook indicates that the focus for the second half of the year will be on anti-involution policies, which aim to address significant price pressures [2] - The second quarter GDP growth was 5.2% year-on-year, slightly down from 5.4% in the first quarter, but still stable above 5% [1][2] - Domestic industrial product prices may gradually find support due to supply-side governance under the anti-involution policy [2] Group 3 - The current market is characterized by a trend of "support from the US economy + liquidity improvement + tech stock assistance" [3] - Short-term market movements are expected to be dominated by high-level fluctuations, with small-cap stocks continuing to reach new highs [4] - The market has broken through the 3,500 pressure level and is stabilizing, with a relatively balanced market style [5] Group 4 - Investment opportunities include low-level cyclical stocks and sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, as well as the financial sector, which is seen as a stabilizing force [6] - Attention should also be given to sectors driven by technology, military, and innovative pharmaceuticals [6]

Market Overview - The A-share market continued to show a trend of oscillation and upward movement, with the ChiNext Index leading the major broad-based indices [4] - As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shanghai 50 by 0.28%, the CSI 300 by 1.09%, the CSI 500 by 1.20%, the CSI 1000 by 1.41%, the ChiNext Index by 3.17%, and the Northbound 50 Index decreased by 0.16% [5] Valuation Insights - As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai 50 Index is in the "danger" valuation percentile, while other major broad-based indices are in the "moderate" valuation percentile [6] - According to the CITIC industry classification, sectors such as building materials, light industry manufacturing, electric equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, textile and apparel, pharmaceuticals, banking, computers, and comprehensive finance are in the "danger" valuation percentile [7] Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The market's risk appetite is increasing, but investors have not yet reached a consensus on further upward movement of the index [4] - Institutional research indicates that the top five stocks receiving the most attention this week are Xinyi Technology (183 institutions), Yingxi Network (171), Tuojing Technology (148), Zhongji Xuchuang (145), and Xinshi Da (140) [9] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 21.456 billion, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect net inflow at HKD 11.658 billion and the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect at HKD 9.798 billion [10] ETF Performance - The median return for stock ETFs this week was 1.38%, with a net outflow of CNY 15.043 billion, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was 5.53%, with a net inflow of CNY 5.289 billion [10] - The median return for cross-border ETFs was 1.07%, with a net outflow of CNY 718 million, and for commodity ETFs, the median return was 0.39%, with a net outflow of CNY 1.235 billion [10] Fund Concentration - As of July 18, 2025, the degree of separation among fund clusters has slightly increased compared to the previous week, with excess returns for clustered stocks and funds showing a slight increase [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the increase in risk appetite is a significant support for the market trend this year, with A50ETF Huabao (159596) seeing a notable rise in its major holding, Heng Rui Pharmaceutical, which increased by 3.7% [1] - The A-share market showed a collective rebound with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index also up by 0.36% [1] - The trading volume in the market reached 746.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 55.3 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,000 stocks rising [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities suggests that with the recent catalytic window for pan-technology assets closing, investors are looking for sectors with potential support, particularly in the pan-consumption industry [2] - The report highlights that consumption promotion is a key policy focus for 2025, with specific measures being rolled out, indicating a clearer approach [2] - The analysis indicates that the fundamentals of the pan-consumption sector are showing signs of improvement, supported by stable employment, expanded social security spending, and a bottoming out of housing prices [2] Group 3 - Ping An Securities emphasizes that the increase in risk appetite is crucial for the market this year, suggesting that besides the technology sector, investors should also consider structurally favorable opportunities in lower-valued consumption sectors [2] - Specific sectors recommended for attention include the home appliance industry, benefiting from substantial subsidies, and the consumer electronics industry, which is expected to gain from AI integration [2] - The report notes that while the liquor industry is facing downward revisions in profit expectations, its PE valuation is currently below the historical 20% percentile, presenting potential short-term trading opportunities [2] Group 4 - Investors can consider A50ETF Huabao (159596) and its associated off-market funds (Class A 021216/Class C 021217) for investment positioning [3]