Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs projects China's real GDP growth to reach 4.8% in 2026, surpassing the market consensus of 4.5% [1] - Structural challenges such as weak consumer spending and a sluggish labor market persist, although the drag from the declining real estate market is expected to lessen [1] - The firm anticipates that increased exports and a reduction in the negative impact of the real estate sector will lead to a faster-than-expected economic growth this year [1] Trade and Inflation - The forecast for Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is -0.7%, slightly better than the consensus expectation of -1.0% [2] - The PPI has been in deflation for over three years, prompting the government to implement "anti-involution" policies to curb price competition among manufacturers [2] - Goldman Sachs expects the current account surplus to rise from 3.6% of GDP in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, contrary to the consensus prediction of a decline to 2.5% [2] Export Dynamics - The resilience of Chinese exports is attributed to three factors: rapid expansion of exports to emerging markets, limited ability of other countries to impose trade barriers against China in key mineral sectors, and greater growth potential in high-tech exports [5] - The firm predicts that export prices, measured in USD, will turn positive in 2026, increasing from -2.7% last year to 0.7% [6] Consumer and Labor Market - The labor market in China has been weak, with employment indices at their lowest levels in a decade, and nominal wage growth expected to slow to 3.8% year-on-year by Q3 2025 [7] - Targeted government policies are anticipated in 2026 to alleviate labor market pressures and support income growth, including subsidies for labor-intensive services and increased minimum wages [7] - Despite a forecasted slowdown in household consumption growth, government consumption is expected to accelerate, balancing the overall contribution of consumption to GDP growth [7] Real Estate Market - The Chinese real estate sector is in its fifth year of decline, with most activity indicators down by 50%-80% from peak levels in 2020-2021 [8] - There are no signs of stabilization in the real estate market, with high housing inventory and severe financing conditions for major developers [11] - Goldman Sachs predicts that the drag from the real estate sector on GDP growth will decrease by 0.5 percentage points annually, although it will still negatively impact growth in the coming years [11] Risks to Growth Outlook - The growth forecast faces slight downward risks due to weaker-than-expected momentum and a lack of urgency for significant policy easing from decision-makers [12] - Potential risks include renewed tensions in US-China relations, increased trade barriers from major trading partners, and intensified financial pressures on local governments and banks [12]

Core Insights - The 26th UBS Greater China Conference will be held in Shanghai from January 12, 2026, focusing on China's economic and policy dynamics, global positioning, financial and industry development, technological advancements, and sustainable growth [1][2] - The conference is expected to attract over 3,600 participants, including more than 2,300 global institutional investors, sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and private investors, with participating companies having a combined market capitalization of approximately $4.3 trillion [1] Group 1: Conference Overview - The theme of the conference is "New frontiers: Growth in a transforming world," aligning with China's 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - UBS Group CEO Sergio P. Ermotti emphasized China's resilience and innovation in advanced manufacturing and AI, presenting new opportunities for global investors [2] - The conference will feature a series of media events with UBS executives, economists, and industry analysts discussing key topics relevant to investment decisions in 2026 [2] Group 2: Participant Insights - There has been a 32% year-on-year increase in the number of international investors from the US, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa attending the conference [2] - UBS has over 35 years of experience in the mainland Chinese market and 60 years in Hong Kong, positioning itself at the intersection of domestic and international capital market demands [2] Group 3: Event Schedule - On January 13, 2026, sessions will cover the outlook for the Chinese stock market and macroeconomic trends, featuring key UBS analysts [3] - On January 14, 2026, discussions will focus on Chinese companies going global, manufacturing upgrades, and the AI industry outlook, with insights from senior UBS economists and analysts [4]

德银报告预计明年中国出口将保持强劲 中新社北京12月5日电 (记者 王恩博)德意志银行研究部5日公布的2026年中国宏观经济展望报告预计， 2026年中国出口将保持强劲，人民币汇率或稳中有升。 德银这份报告认为，明年消费将继续作为中国经济增长的主要引擎。已实施超过一年的"以旧换新"补贴 对耐用消费品的提振或逐渐趋于平稳，商品消费或将录得温和增长；服务消费在政策支持下预计将逐步 改善。 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 今年以来，中国固定资产投资同比增速走低。报告表示，"十五五"规划重大项目陆续开工，将为基础设 施投资提供有力支撑，2026年投资增速对中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长的贡献度将较今年回升。 出口方面，报告表示，主要得益于中国出口商在非美市场、特别是发展中市场的份额不断提升，以及中 美贸易紧张关系的进一步缓和，2026年中国出口将保持强劲，实现稳健增长。 得益于强劲出口和较高的经常账户 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook for China indicates a significant supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but relatively weak domestic demand. Policy adjustments will focus on increasing quality consumption supply, reducing inefficient investments, promoting consumer welfare, and addressing debt issues, which will impact various industries differently [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth Projections**: China's economy is expected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, with inflation anticipated to be higher than in 2025. This suggests that nominal growth will outperform this year, positively influencing secondary market investments. Structural opportunities will primarily be found in technology and consumption sectors, driven by both economic and cultural factors [3]. - **Export Performance**: Exports in 2025 exceeded expectations, and growth in 2026 is projected to be at least as high as this year, potentially exceeding 6%. The share of exports to emerging markets is increasing, while direct exports to the U.S. are declining, although overall dependency is rising. Despite falling export prices, corporate profit margins are stabilizing due to technological advancements and cost reductions [5][13]. - **Weak Domestic Demand**: The primary reasons for weak domestic demand are the transformation of the real estate sector and heavy debt burdens, which have adversely affected the income of businesses, governments, and households. This situation is reflected in accounts receivable and payable metrics, indicating potential risks [6]. - **"Anti-Involution" Policy**: This systemic initiative differs from historical capacity reduction measures and will intensify in certain sectors such as glass, chemicals, photovoltaics, non-ferrous metals, and coal in 2026. This indicates that structural opportunities will increasingly manifest in specific industries [7]. - **Economic Policy Trends**: The economic policy for 2026 will continue a trend of moderate acceleration, focusing on increasing quality consumption supply and reducing inefficient supply. This approach has been emphasized since the 2022 strategic planning outline and the 2025 "14th Five-Year Plan" [9][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Sectors to Watch**: Key areas for increasing quality consumption supply include yachts, private jets, automobiles, and services in sports and high-end healthcare. Inbound consumption is also significant. Collectively, these sectors represent about 3% of 2024's GDP, with a potential growth of 10%, translating to a 0.3 percentage point increase in GDP [10]. - **Fiscal Policy Measures**: The overall fiscal deficit rate is expected to rise, including a narrow deficit rate of 3%-4% and a broader fiscal support rate. Adjustments in the use of special bonds aim to enhance efficiency, with the 2025 special bond scale at 4.4 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in usage compared to previous years [11]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative in 2026, with interest rate cuts likely and sufficient room for reserve requirement ratio reductions compared to 2025 [12]. - **Investment and Consumption Outlook**: Investment is anticipated to improve slightly next year due to moderate increases and structural adjustments. Consumption levels are expected to remain stable, supported by policies like trade-in programs and increased social welfare spending, alongside enhanced quality consumption supply. Export expectations are optimistic, with a projected growth of 6% or higher, aided by easing U.S.-China trade tensions and advancements in Chinese technology [2][13]. - **Potential Growth Space**: China's potential growth rate exceeds 5%, indicating substantial growth opportunities. With sufficient policy support, higher growth can be achieved. Overall, a combination of supply-side and demand-side measures will allow the economy to reveal more positive aspects, with significant development opportunities across various sectors [14].

伦敦证券交易所集团 （London Stock Exchange Group，以下简称LSEG） 于4月10日在上海成功举办 2025年中国市场展望论坛。 该论坛已举办14届，成为中国金融行业最具影响力的盛会之一。 今年的活动汇聚了来自全球银行、资产管理公司、金融科技创新企业以及实体经济领军企业的众多参与者。 讨论聚焦于塑造金融未来的关键主题，包括中国宏观经济展望、资产配置与ETF机遇、金融科技驱动的转型 以及中国金融机构日益增长的国际影响力。 活动精彩回顾视频 LSEG亚太区总裁 David Day 强调LSEG对中国市场的长期承诺，他表示： "中国依然是我们全球战略的核 心支柱。我们很自豪能够引领提供全面的数据、分析、指数和跨资产交易解决方案。我们珍视与中国市场的 合作关系，并将继续致力于加强中英之间的金融合作。" 伦敦证券交易所集团 2025 市场展望论坛主会场 兴业银行首席经济学家 鲁政委博士 表示："在全球经济动荡的背景下，中国的结构性改革继续展现出非凡 的韧性和活力。 均衡增长、产业优化和可持续发展将塑造2025年中国经济前景。 中国的数字化转型不仅加 速了国内产业升级，还为全球经济增长注入了新的 ...