12月8日的高规格会议中虽然未提及股市，但当中"内需主导"四个字的出现，意义很大！ 这次会议不仅强调"扩大内需"，而且提出"内需主导"，意味着政府投资、居民消费端可能进一步发力。"十五五"规划建议稿主要目标中也提到： 居民消费率明显提高，内需拉动经济增长主动力作用持续增强。而要提振消费，股市就非常关键。 近期，学习时报发表的以"重视发展资本市场提振消费的作用"为专题的两篇文章说得更具体： 这说明一方面国家持续推动长期资金入市，让股市持续走向长牛、慢牛。另一方面，下调的风险因子包括沪深300指数、中证红利低波动100指数 也说明对这类指数的重视。 原因很简单：一方面，这些指数业绩稳定、股息率高，投资者容易获得稳定收益。另一方面，这些指数不易暴涨暴跌，是险资、储蓄资金等追求 相对稳定收益的首选。 不过，在宽基指数中，沪深300算是基础版，而中证A500才算是升级版。 中证A500指数成份股和沪深 300 重合度高，但是中证A500在行业均衡上进行了升级。比如在ETF当中，南方中证A500ETF（159352）在涵盖沪深 300核心资产的基础上，更进一步纳入了更多具备高成长性的行业龙头，更好地代表了新质生产力方向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a strong afternoon rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the green, supported by sectors such as shipbuilding, deep-sea technology, lithium mining, gold and jewelry, insurance, and industrial metals [1] - The A500 ETF fund (512050) saw a notable increase of 0.17%, with a turnover rate of 27.61% and a trading volume exceeding 5.3 billion yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [1] - Key stocks such as Aerospace Development and Spring Breeze Power reached their daily limit up, while companies like Chengxin Lithium, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, Tianqi Lithium, and Shandong Gold showed significant gains [1] Group 2 - UBS China’s 2026 outlook report predicts another prosperous year for the Chinese stock market, driven by favorable factors including developments in innovative sectors [1] - The MSCI China Index is projected to reach a target of 100 by the end of next year, indicating a potential upside of 14% from current levels [1] - Earnings per share for Chinese companies are expected to grow by 10% in 2026, with a positive outlook for sectors such as internet, hardware technology, and brokerage firms [1] Group 3 - Shenwan Hongyuan forecasts that the technology structural bull market in 2025 represents the "Bull Market 1.0" phase, with a potential peak in spring 2026 [2] - The second half of 2026 may initiate a comprehensive bull market, termed "Bull Market 2.0," driven by the sequential emergence of policy, market, and economic bottoms [2] - The upcoming bull market is anticipated to be characterized by a "technology bull" or "China influence enhancement bull," supported by cyclical improvements in fundamentals, strengthening trends in emerging industries, and a shift in resident asset allocation towards equities [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share bull market is far from over, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Global competition is intensifying, necessitating a shift in mindset for A-shares to embrace competitive thinking, which will drive market dynamics [1] - The transition of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, indicating further potential for A-share liquidity improvement [1][2] Group 2: Bull Market Phases - "Bull Market 1.0" is anticipated to reach a peak in spring 2026, with a subsequent transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the latter half of 2026 [2] - The second phase, "Bull Market 2.0," is expected to be a comprehensive bull market driven by improvements in fundamental cycles, emerging industry trends, and increased global influence of China [2][3] Group 3: Profit Forecasts - Predictions for 2026 indicate two significant milestones: the first effective rebound in profitability for all A-shares in five years and the first double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in five years [3] - Forecasted year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders are 7% for 2025 and 14% for 2026, with substantial quarterly growth expected [3] Group 4: Sector Trends - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will see high-dividend defensive stocks outperforming, while the latter phase will focus on cyclical recovery and growth sectors [3] - Key structural themes for 2026 include recovery trades in cyclical sectors, technology industry trends with opportunities in AI, and enhanced manufacturing influence [3]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the global competition has intensified, and A-shares should embrace a competitive mindset, reflecting the reality of pricing competition [2][4] - The migration of Chinese residents' asset allocation towards equities is still in its early stages, which could drive a bull market, with the macroeconomic framework indicating that the accumulation of A-share profitability is undergoing a qualitative change [3][5] - The report outlines a "two-phase bull market" theory, with "Bull Market 1.0" expected to peak in spring 2026, followed by a potential "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [6][10] Group 2 - The report predicts that 2026 will see a significant rebound in profitability, with the first double-digit growth in net profit for A-shares in five years, forecasting a 7% growth in 2025 and 14% in 2026 [13] - The transition from "Bull Market 1.0" to "Bull Market 2.0" will likely favor high-dividend defensive stocks, while the latter phase will be characterized by cyclical stocks leading the market [10][13] - Three structural clues for 2026 include recovery trades in basic chemicals and industrial metals, opportunities in the AI industry chain, and the enhancement of manufacturing influence [14]