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申万宏源傅静涛:A股具备演绎牛市行情潜力 年底可能进入“发令枪响”前最后阶段
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-11 02:27
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the A-share market has the potential to develop into a bull market, driven by factors such as increasing household asset allocation towards equities and improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns [3][4] - The upcoming peak in 2025 for household deposit reallocations is expected to mark the beginning of a significant shift in asset allocation towards equities, indicating a potential increase in market participation [3] - The current market is likely to remain in a volatile range during Q2-Q3 of 2025, with a cautious approach recommended until conditions are more favorable for a larger market rally [4] Group 2 - The potential bull market is anticipated to evolve into a "slow bull" unique to China, characterized by prolonged but gradual improvements in the fundamental economic landscape [4] - The market is expected to see a better performance in 2026 compared to 2025, with the primary bull market phase projected for 2026-2027, as supply-demand dynamics improve [4] - The fourth quarter of 2025 is expected to show signs of mid-term fundamental improvement and an initial increase in household equity allocation, potentially elevating the market's central tendency [4]
稀土永磁板块异动走高,A500指数ETF(159351)成交额暂居同标的产品第一,机构:预计稀土价格有望继续温和上涨
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent surge in the rare earth permanent magnet sector, driven by export control measures and market dynamics [1][2] - The A500 Index ETF (159351) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.62% increase and a trading volume exceeding 2 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] - The rare earth industry is experiencing a supply tightening and price stabilization, with expectations for moderate price increases benefiting equity sector profitability [2] Group 2 - The A500 Index ETF closely tracks the CSI A500 Index, which includes 500 representative stocks across various industries, balancing large-cap stocks with core industry leaders [2] - The A-share market is seen as having the potential for a bull market, driven by increasing household asset allocation towards equities and improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns [3] - The overall profitability of Chinese enterprises is expected to rise, with a historical supply clearing cycle anticipated, indicating a shift towards higher value sectors [3]