近期，杠杆资金持续活跃。根据交易所披露的最新数据，截至6月19日，A股沪深京三市融资余额连续9 日站上1.8万亿元大关，相比前两个月显著抬升。 行业上，31个申万一级行业中，医药生物行业本周仍然持续受到融资客青睐，周度融资净买入额超13亿 元，电力设备、石油石化及计算机行业也在本周被融资客大额净买入。 展望下半年权益市场，各券商普遍看好后市。更有外资近期在中期策略中喊出，中国权益资产下半年仍 将跑赢海外市场。 医药板块融资净买入额领先 东方财富Choice数据显示，6月9日至6月19日期间，A股融资余额连续9日站上1.8万亿元大关，其中6月 18日达到峰值18166.59亿元。 拉长时间来看，2024年2月至9月，A股沪深京三市融资余额基本维持在1.3万亿元至1.5万亿元的水平， 自2024年10月起开始抬升至1.5万亿元以上，11月中下旬站上1.8万亿元关卡。 今年以来，A股融资余额有所波动，3月中下旬曾一度冲至1.9万亿元的高位，4月中旬至6月初又回落至 1.8万亿元以下，直至6月9日再次站上1.8万亿元。 从杠杆资金每日买入动能来看，6月9日至6月19日期间，连续9个交易日融资资金单日买入额超过1000 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].

Group 1 - Foreign capital increased its holdings of domestic stocks in May, with a net inflow of 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors, indicating a stable foreign exchange market [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that global investors are increasingly interested in diversifying their portfolios to include Chinese stocks, driven by concerns of missing out on China's technological advancements [2] - The gap between the weight of Chinese stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the actual allocation by global investors is 2.4 percentage points, suggesting significant room for increased investment [3] Group 2 - Nomura believes that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, supported by government policies favoring growth sectors [3] - The static valuation of the CSI 300 index is undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [3] - Goldman Sachs expressed a positive outlook on Chinese stocks, citing potential resilience in the RMB exchange rate and an expected improvement in corporate earnings [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity and scale of the CSI 300 ETF have shown significant growth, with a notable increase in trading volume and net financing [2] - As of June 11, the average daily trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF over the past year was 1.25 billion yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [2] - The CSI 300 ETF has seen a scale increase of 8.616 billion yuan in the past six months, also placing it in the top three for comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 index as of May 30, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Midea Group, Yangtze Power, Industrial Bank, BYD, Zijin Mining, and East Money, collectively accounting for 23.22% of the index [2] - The latest financing balance for the CSI 300 ETF reached 1.129 billion yuan, with a net financing purchase of 45.609 million yuan on the previous trading day [2] - Nomura Orient International Securities anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical period for market direction, with expectations aligning with reality as high-frequency data is validated monthly [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and improved liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) for low-cost entry [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Orient International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in emerging markets amid a weak US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The firm anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical juncture for market direction, with potential for increased volatility during this period [1] - Rising volatility may lead to a greater focus on emerging high-growth sectors, supported by robust policy backing for growth industries [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Stable dividend stocks and niche technology growth sectors are deemed more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [1] - There remains significant potential in domestic consumption and the technology sector [1]

Core Insights - Nomura Oriental International Securities anticipates that the market has fully priced in most potential changes, including consistent expectations for the US economy (strong reality, weak expectations) and the Chinese economy (weak reality, strong expectations) [1] - The firm warns of increased volatility risk in the market as expectations align but do not fully match the fundamentals, particularly as the market approaches a critical directional choice in the second half of 2025 [1] - The report highlights that the Chinese equity market is expected to outperform overseas markets due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in emerging Asia amid a weak dollar [1] Market Expectations - The market is entering a long-tail phase where the alignment of expectations and reality may lead to heightened volatility in the second half of 2025 [1] - The divergence between expectations and reality is expected to narrow as high-frequency data is validated month by month [1] - International capital flows are anticipated to shift, causing additional impacts on liquidity in the market [1] Policy and Growth Sectors - Strong policy support for growth sectors is emphasized, which may redirect market attention towards emerging high-growth areas [1] - The report suggests that the supportive policy environment will play a crucial role in guiding investment towards sectors with high growth potential [1]