Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that the continuous improvement in market risk appetite, along with the optimization of capital market systems, is expected to support the performance of Chinese equities [1][2]. Group 1: Market Risk Appetite and Asset Allocation - Recent improvements in market risk appetite have led to a significant outperformance of risk assets over safe-haven assets, with equities outperforming commodities and bonds [2]. - The report suggests a tactical overweight in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks due to optimistic economic outlooks, stable market liquidity, and improving risk appetite [2][3]. - The tactical allocation for U.S. and Japanese stocks has been adjusted to overweight, while a cautious stance is taken towards government bonds due to multiple pressures [2][6]. Group 2: Chinese Market Dynamics - Factors such as breakthroughs in technology, the ongoing theme of emerging industries, stable total policy expectations, and marginal fiscal support for infrastructure are expected to enhance market risk appetite and support Chinese equities [3]. - The report emphasizes that Chinese equity assets currently possess a high risk-return ratio and tactical allocation value [3]. Group 3: U.S. and Japanese Market Insights - The improvement in overseas risk appetite, particularly following the U.S.-Japan tariff agreement, has led to an upgraded tactical allocation for U.S. stocks to overweight, as the market adjusts its expectations regarding U.S. trade policies [4]. - Japanese stocks have been upgraded to a standard allocation as concerns over export trade have diminished, and the economic outlook remains positive despite some inflationary pressures [5]. Group 4: Government Bonds Outlook - The report indicates a downgrade in the tactical allocation for government bonds to underweight due to pressures from market risk appetite improvements, redemption pressures, and price volatility [6]. - The shift of funds from bonds to equities is noted, as investors seek better returns in a favorable equity performance environment [6].

Group 1 - Foreign capital increased its holdings of domestic stocks in May, with a net inflow of 33 billion USD from non-bank sectors, indicating a stable foreign exchange market [1] - Morgan Stanley reported that global investors are increasingly interested in diversifying their portfolios to include Chinese stocks, driven by concerns of missing out on China's technological advancements [2] - The gap between the weight of Chinese stocks in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the actual allocation by global investors is 2.4 percentage points, suggesting significant room for increased investment [3] Group 2 - Nomura believes that Chinese equity assets will outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year, supported by government policies favoring growth sectors [3] - The static valuation of the CSI 300 index is undervalued by 25.6% compared to its ten-year average, making it attractive for long-term domestic investors [3] - Goldman Sachs expressed a positive outlook on Chinese stocks, citing potential resilience in the RMB exchange rate and an expected improvement in corporate earnings [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the liquidity and scale of the CSI 300 ETF have shown significant growth, with a notable increase in trading volume and net financing [2] - As of June 11, the average daily trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF over the past year was 1.25 billion yuan, ranking it among the top three comparable funds [2] - The CSI 300 ETF has seen a scale increase of 8.616 billion yuan in the past six months, also placing it in the top three for comparable funds [2] Group 2 - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 300 index as of May 30, 2025, include Kweichow Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, China Merchants Bank, Midea Group, Yangtze Power, Industrial Bank, BYD, Zijin Mining, and East Money, collectively accounting for 23.22% of the index [2] - The latest financing balance for the CSI 300 ETF reached 1.129 billion yuan, with a net financing purchase of 45.609 million yuan on the previous trading day [2] - Nomura Orient International Securities anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical period for market direction, with expectations aligning with reality as high-frequency data is validated monthly [4] Group 3 - The report suggests that Chinese equity assets are expected to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong policy expectations and improved liquidity conditions in the Asia-Pacific emerging markets [4] - Investors without stock accounts can access core A-share assets through the CSI 300 ETF linked fund (160724) for low-cost entry [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Orient International Securities expects Chinese equity assets to outperform overseas markets in the second half of the year due to strong domestic policy expectations and better liquidity conditions in emerging markets amid a weak US dollar [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The firm anticipates that the second half of 2025 will be a critical juncture for market direction, with potential for increased volatility during this period [1] - Rising volatility may lead to a greater focus on emerging high-growth sectors, supported by robust policy backing for growth industries [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Stable dividend stocks and niche technology growth sectors are deemed more suitable for the market environment in the second half of the year [1] - There remains significant potential in domestic consumption and the technology sector [1]

6月10日，野村东方国际证券2025年中期策略会在上海举办。野村东方国际证券策略团队展望下半年市 场时表示，市场对多数潜在变化已做出充分计价，包括对美国经济预期的一致性(强现实弱预期)、中国 经济预期的一致性(弱现实强预期)以及国际资本的流向变化。当预期逐渐走向一致，但预期和基本面仍 未能充分吻合时，伴随着一致预期步入长尾阶段，下半年市场潜在波动率有提升的风险。野村东方国际 证券表示，2025年下半年将是市场再度选择方向的重要节点，预期与现实间的差异将有望伴随高频数据 的逐月验证而趋向一致，且国际资本长期叙事的松动与转向将带来额外的资金面冲击，在此期间市场的 波动率环境可能将出现放大。考虑到国内强政策预期，亚太新兴市场在弱美元及国际资金关注下更好的 流动性环境，中国权益资产将在下半年跑赢海外市场。在波动性上升的背景下，政策对成长行业的有力 支持不容忽视，这可能促使市场将更多目光投向新兴高景气成长领域。(人民财讯) ...