Group 1 - The dominance of the US dollar in the current international monetary system means that any interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will simultaneously affect global capital flows through changes in interest rates and exchange rates [1][9] - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts is expected to boost US stock markets from both interest rate and economic fundamentals perspectives, but high valuations remain a challenge for investing in US stocks [1][14] - Non-US markets are showing more attractive valuations, leading to a trend of global capital rebalancing between US and non-US assets, with historical data indicating that emerging markets typically outperform developed markets during periods of dollar decline [1][14] Group 2 - Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, are likely to benefit from a dual catalyst of global liquidity shifts and a turning point in mainland earnings [1][14] - The current valuation of A-shares still presents a "value trap" effect, with potential for valuation recovery resonating with global asset reallocation demands, especially in technology stocks that are sensitive to liquidity and high growth [1][14] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lower real interest rates, which will likely increase gold futures positions and support gold prices, while rising credit risks associated with the dollar may further drive global central bank reserve asset rebalancing [1][15] Group 3 - The "American exceptionalism" narrative is showing signs of weakening, as evidenced by the shift in global asset allocation trends and the underperformance of US assets compared to non-US assets [3][4] - The MSCI global index excluding the US has seen a cumulative increase of 22.7%, outperforming the 12.5% increase of the MSCI US index, while the MSCI emerging markets index has risen by 24.6%, surpassing the 15.2% increase of developed market indices [4][14] - The global central bank gold purchasing trend has surged, with purchases exceeding 1000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a significant shift in reserve asset preferences [6][15] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to create structural opportunities for non-US assets, particularly in emerging markets, as the dollar's credit risk rises [1][14][15] - The ongoing rebalancing of global capital flows is likely to continue, with investors increasingly looking to diversify away from US assets due to concerns over US economic policies and the potential for further dollar depreciation [13][16] - The potential for a "panic rate cut cycle" similar to the 2008 financial crisis is a concern, as the US real estate market shows signs of weakness, which could lead to broader economic implications [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts is expected to catalyze a global asset reallocation, impacting both U.S. and non-U.S. markets, with emerging markets likely to outperform developed markets during this period [4][5][15]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.0%-4.25%, marking the first rate cut since the current cycle began in September of the previous year [4][11]. - The rate cut is anticipated to boost U.S. stock markets, although high valuations present a challenge for investors [15]. - Historical trends indicate that during periods of dollar depreciation, emerging markets typically perform better than developed markets, suggesting a potential for significant relative returns [4][15]. Group 2: Global Asset Reallocation - The trend of reallocating global assets has accelerated, with non-U.S. assets showing particularly strong performance; the MSCI Global (excluding the U.S.) index has risen by 22.7% this year, compared to a 12.5% increase in the MSCI U.S. index [7][15]. - Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, are expected to benefit from global liquidity shifts and a potential turning point in mainland earnings [4][15]. - The A-share market is seen as having a valuation recovery potential, especially in technology stocks, which are sensitive to liquidity and attractive to global capital seeking high returns [4][15]. Group 3: Gold and Currency Dynamics - The restart of rate cuts is likely to lead to a decline in real interest rates, which may increase gold futures holdings and support gold prices [4][16]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with global central bank gold buying exceeding 1,000 tons annually since 2022, indicating a shift in reserve asset preferences [9][16]. - The dollar's dominance is under scrutiny, with a potential long-term decline in its value as political pressures on the Federal Reserve increase, impacting its international credibility [13][14]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment is shifting, with a notable increase in concerns about inflation risks, which could destabilize market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [19][20]. - The current economic policies and pressures on the Federal Reserve may lead to a loss of independence, further exacerbating the dollar's decline and affecting global capital flows [12][13]. - The potential for external shocks and geopolitical uncertainties remains a concern, necessitating a strategic approach to asset allocation amidst these dynamics [20].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 点评报告 2025 年 7 月 1 日 一季度对外经济部门体检 报告 经常项目顺差扩大，内资外流增加，民间对外净 头寸首次转正 2025 年一季度，我国国际收支延续经常项目顺差、资本项目逆差的自主平衡 格局，交易引起的外汇储备资产减少但外汇储备余额增加，民间部门首次转 为对外净资产。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 宏观经济 证券分析师: 管涛 (8610)66229136 tao.guan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520100001 证券分析师: 刘立品 (8610)66229236 lipin.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521080001 经常项目顺差同比扩大，占 GDP 比重继续处于国际认可的合理范围以 内。特朗普关税政策冲击下，我国外贸展现出较强韧性，货物贸易顺差 继续处于历史高位。 资本项目（含净误差与遗漏）逆差连续第四个季度扩大，线上资本项目 逆差处于历史次高，远大于上年同期逆差，主要是因为内资外流增加， 其中对外债务类和股权类投资净流出同比齐增，分别反映了中美 ...