Market Review - Global stock indices showed divergence this week, with European, Brazilian, and Indian indices rising, while Chinese and American tech stocks declined. The Shanghai Composite Index continued its narrow fluctuation, with major broad indices generally adjusting. The average daily trading volume in the A-share market remained around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a focus on existing stock games. Growth leaders fell while small-cap stocks rose, with the micro-cap index increasing by 4.11% [1][2] - In terms of sector performance, the TMT, machinery, and military sectors saw the largest declines, while precious metals and copper prices rose, and domestic double焦 prices weakened [1][2] Market Outlook - The core theme for November remains "small-cap stocks + thematic investment." The recent pullback in Chinese and American tech stocks is attributed to tight overseas liquidity and concerns over AI bubbles. Future attention will be on U.S. economic data and changes in December rate cut expectations. The current A-share market is primarily focused on existing stock games, with financing and southbound trading showing a "high-low cut" trend. The performance benchmark for public funds is expected to curb issues like style drift and short-term ranking chasing, potentially weakening extreme institutional clustering [2][3] Fundamental Analysis - The domestic economy is expected to achieve a growth rate of around 5% for the year, despite a weakening trend in both supply and demand in October. Industrial added value growth was 6.1%, continuing to decline. Investment in narrow infrastructure turned negative, and real estate development investment and sales areas also saw significant declines. Retail sales growth was only 2.9%, marking five consecutive months of decline, particularly in major consumer goods. However, corporate earnings are stabilizing, and with PPI growth expected to turn positive next year, the potential for profit improvement in certain sectors is anticipated [3][4] Macro Policy - Future policy observations will focus on the December Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The central bank has reiterated "cross-cycle adjustment," signaling a balance between long-term goals and supportive monetary policy. The third-quarter monetary policy report indicates that the national economy is progressing steadily, with a solid foundation for achieving annual targets. The central bank's focus is shifting towards supporting policies that consider long-term objectives [4] Funding Dynamics - Since November, market style has shifted, with tech leaders retreating and small-cap stocks outperforming. This is due to concerns over the AI bubble affecting tech sentiment in A-shares. Financing transactions in sectors like semiconductors and communication equipment have seen net selling since November. Southbound funds have favored banks and oil sectors, leading to a phase where value stocks outperform tech stocks. Recent guidelines from the fund industry association aim to curb style drift and extreme clustering among funds, prompting some capital to migrate towards underweight sectors [5][6] Industry Configuration - Focus on "14th Five-Year Plan" related thematic investments, such as energy storage, batteries, domestic substitution, and new materials. Attention should also be given to sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" trends, such as chemicals, and the guidance signals from Hong Kong's innovative pharmaceuticals to A-shares [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Poly Real Estate (00119) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 2.15, indicating a 28% upside potential based on 0.24x P/B for 2025/2026 [1][2] Investment Recommendations - Expected EPS for the company in 2025 and 2026 is projected at HKD 0.04 each, with current trading at 0.17x P/B and a 63% discount to NAV. The target price of HKD 2.15 per share corresponds to a 28% upside and a 52% NAV discount [2] - Potential catalysts include sales and land acquisition performance exceeding market expectations in Q4 2025 [2] Valuation Insights - The company has faced long-term pressure on its stock price due to "peer competition" and governance uncertainties, but these issues are being resolved, leading to improved operational and asset quality during the industry downturn. The reasonable valuation range is estimated at 0.35-0.45x P/B based on NAV models and comparable companies [3] Market Positioning - The company possesses unique attributes such as being a Deep Hong Kong Stock Connect target, a state-owned enterprise, and a small-to-mid-cap stock. Low trading activity has constrained value release, but the relatively loose liquidity in the Hong Kong market since the beginning of the year has created a favorable environment for value discovery [4] Operational Performance - From 2020 to 2024, national and top 100 new home sales declined by 44% and 68%, respectively, while the company maintained stable sales between RMB 50-60 billion, improving its industry ranking by 50 positions to 17th. The company is highly likely to achieve its annual sales target of RMB 50 billion, with a potential for slight year-on-year growth [5]

Core Viewpoint - CICC initiates coverage on Poly Real Estate (00119) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 2.15, indicating a 28% upside potential based on 2025/2026 P/B ratios of 0.24 [1][2] Investment Recommendations - Expected EPS for the company in 2025 and 2026 is projected at CNY 0.04 each year, with current trading at 0.17 times P/B and a 63% discount to NAV. The target price reflects a 28% upside and a 52% NAV discount [2] Valuation Insights - The company has faced long-term pressure on its stock price due to "peer competition" and governance uncertainties. However, with these issues resolved, the company's operational and asset quality have improved during the industry downturn. The reasonable valuation range is estimated at 0.35-0.45 times P/B based on NAV models and comparable companies [3] Market Positioning - The company possesses unique attributes such as being a Deep Hong Kong Stock Connect target, a state-owned enterprise, and a small to mid-cap stock. The low trading activity has been a constraint on value realization, but the relatively loose liquidity in the Hong Kong market since the beginning of the year has created a favorable environment for value discovery [4] Operational Performance - From 2020 to 2024, national and top 100 new home sales declined by 44% and 68%, respectively, while the company's total sales remained stable at CNY 50-60 billion, improving its industry ranking by 50 positions to 17th. The company is highly likely to achieve its annual sales target of CNY 50 billion, with potential for slight year-on-year growth [5]

Report Title - **中小盘收正，板块分化明显，TMT板块基金今年收益反超医药板块——基金市场跟踪2025.09.19** [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the TMT sector funds' year-to-date returns successfully exceeded those of the pharmaceutical sector, becoming the top performer. The pharmaceutical sector's general weakness led to a 2.3% pullback in its funds this week, while the technology and media sectors drove the TMT sector funds up by 2.2% [6][32]. - In terms of style labels, small and medium market capitalization and medium to high valuation have obvious advantages [6][32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Fluctuations 1.1 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The A-share market fluctuated slightly. The CSI 300, representing the large-cap market, had a 0.4% pullback, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose slightly. There was obvious differentiation in style, with the financial sector having a relatively high pullback and the growth sector recording a 1.5% positive return, a gap of nearly 5% [6][10]. - In the bond market, government bonds and corporate bonds fluctuated slightly, and convertible bonds fell 1.5% driven by the stock market [10]. - The Hong Kong and US stock markets rose to varying degrees [10]. - Among representative commodities, agricultural products had a pullback [10]. 1.2 Performance of Industry Themes - This week, each sector in the market showed differentiation. The pharmaceutical sector weakened overall, with all sub - industries having a pullback of over 1.5%. Most of the technology sector closed positive, but cloud computing had a 3.1% pullback. The media sector had a relatively high increase, with the positive return of the animation and game sub - sector exceeding 5%. The mid - stream manufacturing sector was also clearly differentiated, with smart cars rising 4.7% and rare earths falling 4.3%, a gap of 9% [6][12]. 1.3 Performance of Concept Indexes - The top five concepts with the highest gains this week were lithography machines, optical modules (CPO), semiconductor equipment, cameras, and selected auto parts, with the lithography machine concept rising 9%. The top five concepts with the highest losses were rare earths, gold and jewelry, operating systems, selected insurance, and small metals, with rare earths falling 7.4% [17]. 1.4 Trading Heat Tracking - The top five concepts with the highest trading heat this week were state - owned enterprise comprehensive, fund heavy - holding, core assets, 5G applications, and technology leaders. The average daily trading volume of the state - owned enterprise comprehensive concept reached 56.13 billion shares [21]. - Compared with last week, the top five concepts with rising heat were selected coal mining, selected air transportation, urban village renovation, recent IPO stocks, and cross - border e - commerce; the top five concepts with falling heat were digital twin, spatio - temporal big data, gold and jewelry, selected shipping, and fluorine chemical industry [22][23]. 2. Active Equity Fund Tracking 2.1 Classification Returns and Rising Ratios - The median return of international (QDII) stock - type funds in the past week was the highest at 1.4%, and the lowest was enhanced index - type bonds at - 0.3%. The median return of partial - stock hybrid funds in the past month was the highest at 7.0%, and the lowest was hybrid bond - type level 1 at - 0.0% [29]. - The proportion of rising funds in the past month was the highest for enhanced index - type bonds at 100.0%, and the lowest was hybrid bond - type level 1 at 37.7%. The minimum maximum drawdown in the past month was for short - term pure - bond funds at - 0.0%, and the highest was for ordinary stock - type funds at - 5.0% [29]. 2.2 Sub - label Return Situations - In terms of sectors, the TMT sector funds had a 2.2% return in the past week, 15.0% in the past month, and 47.9% year - to - date; the mid - stream manufacturing sector had 2.2%, 9.3%, and 31.8% respectively; the pharmaceutical sector had - 2.3%, - 2.1%, and 43.8% respectively [31]. - In terms of style labels, small - cap and medium - to - high - valuation funds showed obvious advantages [32]. 2.3 Fund Differentiation within Sectors - At the sector level, the consumer sector had the lowest differentiation degree in the past week, with a return range of 6.0%, and the highest was the TMT sector, with a return range of 18.8%. In the past month, the consumer sector also had the lowest differentiation degree, with a return range of 15.1%, and the highest was the TMT sector, with a return range of 44.0% [34]. 2.4 Fund Differentiation within Styles - At the style level, the low - profit - quality funds had the lowest differentiation degree in the past week, with a return range of 13.9%, and the highest were low - cap and high - valuation funds, with a return range of 22.8%. In the past month, the low - valuation funds had the lowest differentiation degree, with a return range of 40.7%, and the highest were high - valuation, high - growth, and high - quality funds, with a return range of 50.1% [38]. 2.5 Top - performing Funds in Each Sector - The report lists the top five funds in each sector in terms of one - month returns [43][44]. 2.6 Top - performing Funds in Each Style - The report lists the top five funds in each style in terms of one - month returns [46]. 3. Private Equity Market Performance 3.1 Overall Performance of the Private Equity Market - The private equity type with the highest return this year is the event - driven type, with a return rate of 39.3% [4][50]. 3.2 Returns of Various Private Equity Types - For stock - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are mostly stock subjective long - only, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 20% range [53]. - For bond - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all bond composites, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 5% range [57]. - For portfolio fund - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all FOFs, and most of their year - to - date returns are above 10% [61]. - For money - market - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all trust products, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 2% range [64]. - For managed - futures private equity, the top - performing products mostly use program trading strategies, and their year - to - date returns are widely distributed, with products in both the <-10% and >10% ranges [67]. - For relative - value - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are all stock - market neutral, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 10% - 20% range [70]. - For macro - strategy private equity, only 8 products announced their net values this week, and most of their year - to - date returns are above 20% [73]. - For composite - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are mostly trust products, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 10% and >30% ranges [77]. - For other - strategy private equity, the top - performing products are mostly under foreign - trade trusts, and most of their year - to - date returns are in the 0% - 10% range [80].

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced on May 21 a decision to modify regulations, establishing a phased payment mechanism for the consideration of restructuring shares, which benefits small and medium-sized companies acquiring large-scale assets, particularly in the new productivity sector [1] - The "2024 China Small and Medium Enterprises Financing Development Report" released on May 26 indicates that the scale of small and medium-sized enterprises in China will continue to expand in 2024, with significant achievements in high-quality development and a steady growth trend in the financing market overall [1] - Huaxi Securities noted that from May 19 to 23, the CSI 1000 index underperformed, while its congestion level did not show significant changes, contrasting with the situation of the CSI 2000 index. This reflects a sustained demand for "potentially small" market capitalization, indicating that the CSI 1000 may no longer meet this standard, as funds increasingly seek "micro-cap" opportunities [1] Group 2 - The current market structure is described as "dumbbell-shaped," with the Shanghai Composite Index 50 representing core large-cap stocks and the CSI 2000 and Wind Micro-Cap Index representing small-cap stocks continuing to strengthen [1] - The CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159679) tracks the CSI 1000 index (000852), which is compiled by the China Securities Index Co., Ltd. and covers a wide range of industry sectors, reflecting the overall market performance of small-cap listed companies. This index is characterized by high growth potential and significant volatility [1]