Group 1 - The performance of A-shares is expected to benefit from overseas expansion, which is a strong indicator of exceeding expectations in earnings [1] - The market is transitioning to seek new scenarios as the mid-year earnings forecast season comes to an end [2] - A-shares are anticipated to show a slight upward trend in July, supported by stable export conditions and potential breakthroughs in technology sectors [3] Group 2 - The domestic economic recovery path is becoming clearer, with factors such as anti-involution policies and the relative advantage of A-shares compared to other markets [2] - The equity market is likely to maintain a strong oscillating trend due to positive signals from domestic policies and improving earnings in certain sectors [4] - Key investment areas include technology growth sectors, traditional cyclical industries benefiting from policy changes, and financial sectors with high dividend yields [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant number of companies across various sectors, particularly in non-bank financials, metals, and steel, that are expected to show strong profit growth in the upcoming earnings announcements, with many companies projecting substantial increases in net profit [2][3][19]. Group 1: Earnings Forecasts - Nearly 1,500 companies have disclosed their earnings forecasts for the first half of 2025, with an overall disclosure rate of 27.54% [3]. - Among these, sectors such as real estate, coal, building materials, and steel have a disclosure rate exceeding 50% [3]. - Approximately 650 companies are expected to report positive earnings (including increases, slight increases, continued profitability, and turnaround), accounting for 43% of the total [3]. Group 2: Performance Expectations by Sector - Non-bank financials, metals, home appliances, and electronics sectors show a high proportion of companies expected to be profitable in the first half of the year [5]. - The sectors with the highest number of companies projecting significant earnings growth include basic chemicals, electronics, machinery, agriculture, power equipment, and pharmaceuticals, with over 20 companies expected to double their earnings [6]. Group 3: Notable Companies - South China Precision Engineering is leading with an extraordinary projected earnings growth rate of 286 times, while 27 other companies are expected to see growth rates exceeding 10 times [19]. - The report lists several companies with significant projected earnings, including China Shenhua and Tuhai Mining, with lower bounds of net profit forecasted at 236 billion and 232 billion respectively [20]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The report provides detailed insights into various sectors, indicating that the white goods, seasoning and fermentation products, precious metals, and marine equipment sectors have 100% of their companies forecasting positive earnings [12]. - Conversely, sectors such as kitchen and bathroom appliances, aerospace equipment, and cosmetics show no companies expecting profitability [13].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed companies are entering a peak period for mid-year performance forecasts, with a significant increase in the number of companies announcing their forecasts compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Performance Forecasts - A total of 455 listed companies in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing announced mid-year performance forecasts from July 7 to July 13, a substantial increase from 32 companies in the previous week [1] - Among these, 210 companies are from the Shanghai main board, 8 from the Shanghai STAR Market, 214 from the Shenzhen main board, 22 from the Shenzhen Growth Enterprise Market, and 1 from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] Group 2: Companies with Significant Profit Growth - Ten companies forecasted a mid-year net profit growth lower limit exceeding 1000%, with Sanhe Pile leading at a net profit growth rate of 3090.81% to 3888.51% [2] - Other notable companies include Muyuan Foods, which expects a net profit of 1.02 billion to 1.07 billion yuan, and Northern Rare Earth, anticipating a net profit of 900 million to 960 million yuan [4][5] Group 3: Factors Influencing Performance - Sanhe Pile attributes its performance improvement to market demand, focusing on core businesses in emerging fields such as photovoltaics, wind power, and water conservancy, alongside effective cost control and product structure improvement [3] - Muyuan Foods reported a significant increase in operating performance due to higher pig sales and lower breeding costs compared to the same period last year [5] - Northern Rare Earth expects a non-GAAP net profit growth of 5538.33% to 5922.76%, driven by a full order book and an optimistic outlook on future rare earth prices [5] Group 4: Overall Market Sentiment - Among the 455 companies that released forecasts, 139 predicted losses, and 152 anticipated a decline in net profit, indicating a notable increase in the proportion of companies forecasting negative performance compared to the previous week [5]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a high-to-low reversal today, with the Shanghai Composite Index failing to maintain the 3500-point level, reflecting a challenging resistance point for the market [1][6] - The total trading volume for A-shares reached 1.53 trillion yuan, an increase of 528 billion yuan compared to the previous day [5][6] - The banking sector showed strong performance, with major banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, and Agricultural Bank hitting new highs during intraday trading [1][7] Index Performance - Multiple indices, including the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and others, showed net capital outflows, indicating a lack of investor confidence [3][5] - The A-share market has seen three instances of breaching the 3500-point mark since September last year, but this time the trading volume was significantly lower at 1.53 trillion yuan compared to previous attempts [6] Sector Analysis - The banking sector regained strength, contributing to the index's upward movement, but a late-session sell-off affected other sectors as well [7][9] - The "anti-involution" concept stocks continued to perform well, with Ningde Times leading the charge, and the photovoltaic sector also saw strong gains [10] - Ningde Times' A+H shares surged, with H-shares hitting a historical high, reflecting the company's strategic investments and market positioning [10] Earnings Forecast - Mid-year earnings forecasts are being released, with two real estate companies reporting significant profit increases, indicating potential growth in the sector [10] - The report from Ping An Securities suggests that the real estate industry may enter a new competitive phase as important meetings approach, with a focus on companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and product quality [10]

Market Performance - As of midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.58%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.27%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 2.25%, with over 3,900 stocks in the market experiencing gains [1]. Sector Performance - The photovoltaic equipment, BC battery, PCB, and energy metal sectors showed the highest gains, while the insurance and agriculture sectors weakened [2]. Capital Flow - Major funds saw a net inflow into the electronics, power equipment, and computer sectors, while there was a net outflow from the banking, public utilities, and transportation sectors [3]. Individual Stock Performance - Specific stocks such as Industrial Fulian, Sungrow Power Supply, and Shenghong Technology experienced net inflows of 2.785 billion, 1.495 billion, and 1.036 billion respectively [4]. - Conversely, stocks like Changjiang Electric Power, Hanyu Pharmaceutical, and Jingbeifang faced net outflows of 393 million, 228 million, and 223 million respectively [5]. Institutional Insights - According to Jin Jun, Investment Director at Qianhai Bourbon Fund, the market has shown resilience since the rally began on June 23, with expectations for the index to challenge 3,674 points in the second half of the year despite facing resistance at the previous high of 3,496 [7]. - Dong Tian from Zhongtai Securities noted that the index is facing significant pressure and suggested focusing on industries with longer cycles and those that have released earnings forecasts to gauge overall industry conditions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market sentiment is warm, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. For stock index futures, sentiment is positive with healthy long - short position changes; for stock index options, a covered defense strategy is recommended; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month basis, inter - period spreads, and positions changed. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated higher on Monday, with small - cap sentiment remaining active. Large - cap stocks retreated after capital congestion, and funds flowed to small - cap stocks. IM saw healthy long - short position changes, with a significant decrease in positions and wider intraday discounts [7]. - **Logic**: Geopolitical risks eased, the tariff deadline was postponed, and the market shifted its focus to internal profit improvement as the interim report announcements approached. - **Operation Suggestion**: Continue to allocate long IM contracts [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market oscillated upward with sectoral divergence. Although sentiment indicators rose with the underlying assets, the trading volume in the options market declined significantly, and trading liquidity was lower than expected [7]. - **Logic**: In a low - liquidity derivatives market, sentiment indicators showed synchronicity but no guiding effect. Implied volatility only corresponded to daily market fluctuations, and all varieties showed a decline in volatility in the morning. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [7]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL's main contracts changed by - 0.16%, - 0.10%, - 0.05%, and - 0.43% respectively. Trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis all had corresponding changes [3][8][9]. - **Logic**: The central bank's second - quarter policy statement was positive, the end - of - month capital tightened, the June PMI was better than expected, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was evident. At the beginning of the month, the capital may seasonally loosen, but the central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the supply of new local bonds in July may remain high [3][9][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: For trend strategies, maintain an oscillating view; for hedging strategies, focus on short - hedging at low basis levels; for basis strategies, appropriately focus on basis widening; for curve strategies, steepening the curve in the medium term has higher odds [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, better than the previous value of 49.5. The US will release the June ISM manufacturing index on July 1st, the June unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls change on July 3rd [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Bond Market**: As of the end of May, overseas institutions' custodial balance in the Chinese bond market was 4.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.3% of the total. In the inter - bank bond market, the balance was 4.3 trillion yuan. Overseas institutions held 2.1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, 1.2 trillion yuan of negotiable certificates of deposit, and 0.8 trillion yuan of policy - bank bonds [11]. - **Overseas Macroeconomy**: The US Senate procedurally voted to pass the "Great Beauty" tax and spending bill pushed by President Trump. The bill is estimated to increase the US federal government's debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next 10 years [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text.