Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Views - The A-share market has shown an overall trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In the short term, policy expectations are weak, and as the year-end approaches, institutional demand for profit-taking and portfolio adjustment increases, leading to an overall increase in risk aversion. The index lacks guidance and shows an oscillating and volatile state [7][8][13] - The bond market is significantly adjusted, and the risk of a bear market should be limited. It will continue to maintain a low-interest rate environment next year. However, the policy layer's mention of cross-cycle adjustment may indicate that loose policies are difficult to implement in the short term, increasing short-term market volatility. If market sentiment improves in the future, futures have a certain room for a supplementary increase [82] - The shipping market's price increase expectations are fermented again, and the EC rebounds and recovers. The market may conduct intense games around the pre-Spring Festival shipping peak. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02-04 contract [91][104] Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Review**: The A-share market has shown a trend of "short-term correction followed by relatively strong performance, significant decline after external shocks and then a rebound" this year. In December 8 - December 12, the A-share market oscillated, with small and medium-cap stocks performing more strongly. The growth sector led the rise, while other style sectors recorded declines. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest rate cut and balance sheet expansion, along with domestic policy support, are beneficial for the capital market. However, short-term policy expectations are weak, and the index will oscillate [7][8][9][13] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Analysis**: The trading volume of stock index futures has increased, and the open interest has generally risen [14] - **Basis, Inter - Delivery Spread, and Inter - Variety Spread Analysis**: The basis trend is differentiated. The inter - delivery spread of all varieties shows negative values, and the inter - variety spread indicates that small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better this week [16][20][22] - **Industry Sector Overview**: In terms of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 and CSI 500 by industry, the communication, information, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the energy, materials, and consumer sectors led the decline. At the primary industry level, the communication, national defense and military industry, and electronics sectors led the rise, while the coal, petroleum and petrochemical, and steel sectors led the decline [25][28] - **Valuation Comparison**: As of December 12, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at relatively high levels in the past ten years [30] Treasury Bonds - **This Week's Market Review**: - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The trading data of treasury bond futures is summarized. The market has experienced ups and downs this week. In terms of strategy performance, the short - term futures performed stronger than the spot, and there is a certain positive arbitrage space for the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling the basis for the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds. Currently, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - delivery strategy, and it is recommended to pay attention to the flattening strategy [33][34][38][41][53][55] - **Bond Spot Market**: The spot yields of treasury bonds have decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term. The yields of US bonds have also decreased in the short - term and increased in the long - term [64] - **Funding Situation**: The central bank has made continuous net injections, and the inter - bank funding is loose. Funding rates remain low, and there is no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks [74][76] - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: The yields of most interest rate swap varieties have declined this week, and liquidity expectations are stable [80] - **Market Analysis**: - **Recent Market Logic**: The domestic fundamentals have weakened marginally since mid - year, and the bond market's risk of a significant adjustment or a bear market is limited. However, the short - term implementation of loose policies is difficult, increasing short - term market volatility. If market sentiment improves, futures have room for a supplementary increase. Currently, the configuration demand is still cautious [82] - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: In November, exports were stronger than expected, imports were weaker than expected, and PPI improvement was also weaker than expected. The demand side continues to maintain the characteristic of "strong external and weak internal" [83] - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: Important meetings have set the tone for a loose monetary policy next year, but the possibility of short - term implementation is low. Next week's economic data is expected to maintain moderate recovery, and the support of funding for the bond market may weaken, with the market likely to maintain a weak oscillation [88] - **Next Week's Open Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar**: A total of 7485 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature next week, and the November national economic activity data will be released [90] Shipping Index - **Market Review**: The expectation of price increases has fermented again, and the EC has rebounded and recovered. The market is conducting games around the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the 02 contract has recovered and closed up [91] - **Container Shipping Market Situation**: - **Spot Market**: The freight rates of ocean routes have shown a differentiated trend, with the rates of European and American routes both declining. Shipowners have announced price increases for the second half of December and January, boosting the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival [96] - **Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the European container capacity in December is at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential capacity is expected to continue to grow. The possibility of full resumption of navigation in the Red Sea in the first quarter of next year is not high, but if the cease - fire is stable, the probability of gradual resumption in 2026 is large. On the demand side, it is difficult for the demand side to be significantly stimulated [101][102] - **Market Outlook**: The joint price increases of major shipowners may continue to boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the 02 - 04 contract [104]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed results with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.15% closing at 3864 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.02% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.14% [1][2] - The total market turnover was 1.8 trillion yuan, a decrease of 29 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3600 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical retail sector saw significant gains, with stocks like Huaren Health and Ruikang Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit [2][4] - The CPO concept stocks were active, with Yongding Co. and Zhongji Xuchuang reaching their daily limit, while other related stocks also saw substantial increases [2][6] - Retail stocks surged, with companies such as Dongbai Group and Guoguang Chain hitting the daily limit, and Guofang Group rising over 9% [8] Notable Stocks - In the pharmaceutical sector, stocks like Guangdong Wannianqing and Huaren Health saw increases of 20% and 20% respectively, while Haiwang Biological and Taida Co. also performed well [5][4] - CPO concept stocks like Changguang Huaxin and Saiwei Electronics saw increases of 20% and over 16% respectively [6][7] - Retail stocks such as Dongbai Group and Guoguang Chain experienced gains of 10% [9] Industry Trends - The flu-related stocks have shown a notable increase in interest, with a reported over 500% increase in the number of buyers for antiviral drugs [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a commercial trial for satellite IoT services, which is expected to enhance market supply and stimulate industry growth [10] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the A-share market may see upward momentum in 2026, driven by policy support and high earnings growth in certain sectors [14] - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors undergoing "new and old kinetic energy" transitions and those focusing on domestic demand and consumption [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback in the new energy sector is attributed to profit-taking after a short-term surge, while the fundamental outlook remains positive with sustained downstream demand [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The new energy sector experienced a notable correction on November 18, primarily due to profit realization by some investors after a recent rally, but the underlying fundamentals have not changed significantly [1] - Future focus areas include: 1. Continued prosperity in sectors like energy storage and lithium batteries, with attention on domestic battery manufacturers' production schedules and the upcoming Spring Festival holiday [1] 2. Recovery in struggling sectors such as photovoltaics and lithium materials, with a focus on price increases across various segments [1] 3. Future industries like AIDC and solid-state batteries, monitoring performance in the U.S. market and subsequent evaluations by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investors interested in targeted exposure to lithium battery demand and breakthroughs in solid-state batteries may consider the New Energy Vehicle ETF (159806), which covers the entire lithium battery supply chain with approximately 65% solid-state battery content [2] - For those looking for comprehensive coverage of lithium batteries, energy storage, photovoltaics, and wind power, the 20cm ChiNext New Energy ETF (159387) and the Carbon Neutrality 50 ETF (159861) are recommended, with solid-state and energy storage content around 65% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant rebound in investor participation in the Chinese market, contrasting with the low allocation trend observed over the past three years [1] - Approximately 90% of respondents expect the stock market in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) to rise in the next 12 months, marking the highest level of optimism in the survey's history [1] - A net 39% of respondents predict stronger corporate earnings in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), the highest level since October 2024 [1] Group 2 - The survey reveals a shift in investment stance towards China, with 21% of respondents building positions, 14% having completed full allocation, and another 14% actively seeking entry opportunities [2] - In terms of investment themes, AI/Semiconductors are the most favored sector with 64% of respondents, followed by the anti-involution concept at 24% [5] Group 3 - Despite 79% of respondents anticipating further easing of Chinese monetary policy, there is a noted decrease in household risk appetite, reflected in a simultaneous decline in discretionary spending and investment behavior [8] - Japan remains the most favored market in the Asia-Pacific region, with about 70% of respondents predicting a rise in the stock market over the next year [11] Group 4 - Semiconductor stocks (46%) and bank stocks (29%) continue to be the top preferences among investors, maintaining their leading positions since being included in the survey in October 2023 [14] - Approximately two-thirds of respondents expect the Bank of Japan to initiate interest rate hikes in the first quarter of 2026 [14]

Core Insights - M2 and M1 growth rates indicate a trend towards "liquefaction" of deposits, with M2 growing by 8.8% and M1 by 6% in August, leading to a narrowing gap between the two metrics [2] - The upcoming maturity of high-interest time deposits in 2025 and 2026, estimated at approximately 11.08 trillion yuan and 4.05 trillion yuan respectively, is expected to further accelerate the "liquefaction" of deposits [2] - The stock market's performance is likely to benefit from the increased allocation of funds into equity assets as the profitability of stock markets improves, particularly in the context of the ongoing bull market in technology stocks [2] Group 1 - The current market environment is characterized by a structural bull market rather than a broad-based bull market, leading to cautious behavior among individual investors [3] - Institutional funds, including public funds and insurance capital, are expected to play a significant role in driving market momentum, with a projected annual increase of at least 10% in public fund holdings of A-shares over the next three years [4][6] - The market has seen a rotation of sectors, with the 中证A500 index being well-positioned to capture gains from various hot sectors, including technology and anti-involution themes [5] Group 2 - The A-share market still has considerable incremental capital available, driven by institutional investments and the "liquefaction" of personal savings, although personal investment requires a rise in market confidence [6] - The establishment of mechanisms to prevent abnormal market fluctuations and the commitment to channel 30% of new insurance premiums into A-shares starting in 2025 provide a solid foundation for market growth [4][6] - The technology sector's market capitalization exceeds 25%, with the 中证A500 index reflecting a significant representation of emerging industries, positioning it favorably in the current market landscape [5]

Group 1 - Recent capital rotation into A-shares and significant rise in Hong Kong interbank rates have impacted investor sentiment, but the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market remain strong [1] - The target for the Hong Kong stock index is maintained at 28,000 points by mid-next year, with a positive outlook on gaming and video stocks [1] - Anticipated volatility in the market due to the upcoming expiration of the US-China tariff grace period, but the impact on Hong Kong stocks is expected to be limited unless there is a significant drop in US or global markets [1] Group 2 - The inflow of capital from the north has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, but the pace of southbound capital inflow is expected to slow down, while foreign capital continues to increase holdings in Chinese stocks [1] - Investment recommendations include allocating to high-dividend stocks for better resilience and income buffer, alongside growth stocks [1] - Criteria for growth stocks include low correlation with economic cycles, stable competitive landscape, and overseas growth potential, with a cautious stance on e-commerce due to its sensitivity to economic cycles and intense competition [1] Group 3 - Regarding the anti-involution concept stocks, any positive news may lead to short-term rebounds, but the upward potential is limited due to challenges in controlling production capacity and prices, as well as weak demand recovery [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw a significant increase in new account openings, reaching 2.65 million in August 2025, a year-on-year growth of 165% and a month-on-month increase of 35% [1][2] - Cumulatively, 17.21 million new accounts were opened in 2025, representing a 47.9% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Monthly New Account Data - January 2025: 1.57 million new accounts opened, with a gradual increase to 3.05 million in March before a decline in April due to market fluctuations [1][2] - August 2025: 2.65 million new accounts, significantly higher than the 1 million in August 2024, indicating strong market interest [1][2] Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a strong performance in August 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,857.93 points, marking a 7.97% increase for the month [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 15.32%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 24.13%, reflecting robust market sentiment [4] Supporting Factors for Market Strength - A favorable liquidity environment with low market funding costs contributed to the upward movement of equity asset valuations [5] - Positive corporate earnings reports in sectors such as biomedicine, chemicals, and semiconductors provided a solid fundamental support for the market [5] - Domestic stimulus policies aimed at technology innovation and high-end manufacturing further bolstered long-term market confidence [6] Future Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the market will maintain a trend of oscillating upward movement, driven by accumulated profit effects and continued inflow of new capital [7] - Short-term focus will be on sectors benefiting from improved supply-demand dynamics and industry profit recovery, as well as consumer sectors supported by policy measures [9] - The technology sector, particularly AI, robotics, and semiconductors, is expected to remain a key area of investment due to rapid domestic advancements [9]

Group 1 - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) concept stocks saw significant gains, with major players like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng reaching historical highs, closing at 406.10 CNY and 388.50 CNY per share, respectively [2][4] - The gold sector remained strong, with multiple stocks such as Zhejiang Fu Holdings and Zhongjin Gold hitting the daily limit up, indicating robust market interest [2][8] - The A-share market experienced a positive start in September, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.46%, Shenzhen Component by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.29%, reflecting overall market optimism [3] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities highlighted three main investment themes: improvement in supply-demand dynamics and industry profitability, consumer spending under policy support, and technological self-sufficiency in sectors like AI and semiconductors [4][8] - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a 36.95% year-on-year increase in revenue to 14.789 billion CNY and a 69.40% increase in net profit to 3.995 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, driven by high-end optical module demand [8] - Xinyi Sheng's revenue surged by 282.64% to 10.437 billion CNY, with net profit increasing by 355.68% to 3.942 billion CNY, benefiting from data center investments [8][11]

Group 1 - Recent announcements from multiple banks prohibit the use of credit card funds for stock trading, aiming to curb speculative behaviors that can lead to irrational market fluctuations and risks [3][4] - The stock price of Cambrian Biologics increased by 133.86% from July 28, 2025, indicating a potential disconnection from its current fundamentals, which poses risks for investors [4][5] - The current market is entering a technical bull market, but there are concerns about unhealthy practices such as using credit card funds for trading and blind speculation [4][5] Group 2 - The regulatory actions signal government support for a stable stock market while discouraging excessive leverage and speculative bubbles [5][6] - The A-share market has shown positive changes, with a notable increase in professional and cautious investor behavior, as evidenced by the rapid growth of ETFs, which surpassed 5 trillion yuan [5][6] - The current market rally is characterized by sector rotation rather than a broad-based increase, with leading sectors aligning with national industrial policies and performance support [5][6] Group 3 - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increased global risk appetite are expected to provide new momentum for the stock market [6][7] - The introduction of regulations on rare earth mining and smelting is likely to maintain strong price trends in upstream rare earth materials, benefiting related ETFs [6][7] - A healthier stock market is essential for sustainable growth, and recent regulatory measures are aimed at preventing extreme volatility similar to past market experiences [6][7]

Market Overview - A-shares market capitalization has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, indicating the potential onset of a bull market as indices reach new highs [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has successfully crossed the 3700-point mark, breaking the previous high of 3731.69 points from February 2021, marking a nearly ten-year high [1] Institutional Insights - Galaxy Securities highlights that recent market performance signals positive trends, with margin trading balances returning to over 2 trillion yuan, reflecting investor optimism and increased capital inflow [2] - Industrial Securities emphasizes that the current market rally is driven more by policy support and the emergence of new growth drivers rather than macroeconomic improvements [2] - CITIC Securities identifies four characteristics of the current slow bull market, including structural prosperity as the main market driver and the need for a phase of consolidation after continuous gains [2] Future Market Trends - Guotai Junan maintains a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, suggesting that A-share indices may reach new highs, influenced by institutional reforms aimed at enhancing investor returns [3] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the A-share market will continue its slow bull trend, with external conditions showing no significant negative impacts and a warming expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Investment Strategies - Caitong Securities recommends focusing on technology growth sectors (AI computing, robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals) and financial sectors (brokerage, insurance), while being cautious of sector divergence risks [4] - Huashan Securities outlines three investment themes: high-growth technology sectors, areas with strong economic support or exceeding performance expectations, and sectors benefiting from structural policy changes [4][5] - Galaxy Securities suggests prioritizing technology growth sectors, the anti-involution concept, high-margin assets, and consumer sectors boosted by policy support [5]