Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights 15 key debates for 2025 that are likely to continue into 2026, focusing on various sectors including artificial intelligence, private credit, and macroeconomic factors [1] - There is a significant focus on the potential risks associated with alternative debt structures and high-leverage companies within the artificial intelligence ecosystem [4] - The report anticipates a further expansion of artificial intelligence transactions into platform stocks and productivity beneficiaries [9] - Concerns regarding private credit have arisen due to major losses and fraud allegations, indicating increasing risks in non-bank lending [12][13] - The recent rebound in the U.S. cyclical stock market reflects optimistic expectations for the macroeconomic outlook in 2026, with anticipated acceleration in economic growth and fiscal stimulus [15] - The report predicts a favorable fiscal stimulus environment for the upcoming year, driven by tax cuts, investment incentives, and new spending [17] - The K-shaped economic recovery is highlighted, showing disparities in consumer sentiment and sales growth between low-income and high-income segments [21] - The report suggests that 2026 may be a year of recovery for traditional economies, with rising commodity prices driven by a weaker dollar and increased inflation [23] - The outlook for Brent crude oil prices indicates significant downside potential compared to market expectations for 2026 [25] - The stablecoin market is currently valued at approximately $307 billion, dominated by Tether and Circle [29] - Despite strong economic performance in Europe, capital inflows remain notably sluggish [30] - The report has adjusted China's GDP growth forecast upward, which may negatively impact global GDP growth outside of China [36] - The report anticipates further strengthening of the euro against the dollar, which could adversely affect companies with high international sales [38] - South Korea is identified as the best-performing market year-to-date, with ongoing improvements in corporate sectors [40] - The ongoing technological competition between the U.S. and China remains intense, with both countries pursuing self-sufficient technology policies [42]

科技竞赛打开估值上限——多行业联合人工智能 12 月报 20251209 摘要 2026 年端侧增长预计稳健，主要由苹果链和机器人链构成，苹果链受 益于折叠屏和新品，增长强劲，估值偏低，更具优势。关注立讯精密、 水晶光电等消费电子制造公司。 科创短期关注 2026 年业绩能否支撑现有估值，中长期结合康波周期和 中美科技竞赛判断。国内科创板块整体估值仍有上行空间，重点关注集 成电路、工业母机等领域。 Meta 的 AI 眼镜预计 2026 年出货量达 2000 万台以上，推荐关注歌尔 股份和水晶光电。OpenAI 收购 iO 公司后计划推出硬件产品，供应链值 得关注，包括立讯精密、信维通信等环节。 AI 竞争进入强推理和原生多模态阶段，kimi K2 thinking 模型在推理速 度和工具使用能力上大幅提升，训练成本远低于 OpenAI，定价策略也 更具优势。 Gemini 3 在数学、Agent 等领域为全球开源社区提供了全新标杆，实 现了学习构建和规划的突破，并在 LiveCode Bench Pro 测试中表现优 异。 Q&A 当前中美科技竞赛对 AI 板块估值有何影响？未来 AI 产业链的增长趋势如何 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central government emphasizes anti-involution policies in high-end manufacturing sectors like electronics and semiconductors to enhance international competitiveness and secure a favorable position in global competition [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - Anti-involution policies combined with corporate cash activation are shifting the bull market's main driver towards physical re-inflation, benefiting industries like electronics and semiconductors through supply-side optimization [1] - The short-term performance of the sci-tech sector is active, with a significant increase in the distribution of five-fold stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [1] - In the medium term, attention is directed towards cyclical industries with tight supply, such as consumer electronics and optical optoelectronics within technology, where inventory and capital expenditure are at low levels, potentially benefiting leading companies' profit recovery due to increased industry concentration [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Anti-involution policies are expected to drive a rebound in inflation expectations, with the electronics and semiconductor sectors showing more resilience in growth styles amid breakthroughs in AI, the Sino-U.S. tech competition, and a global interest rate reduction cycle [1] - The Semiconductor Equipment ETF (159516) tracks the semiconductor materials and equipment index (931743), focusing on upstream materials and equipment in the semiconductor industry, reflecting the overall performance of key enterprises in this sector [1] - The index covers high-tech barrier and growth characteristic sub-sectors, serving as an important reference for investors to grasp opportunities in the semiconductor industry [1] Group 3: Investment Products - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF Initiated Link A (019632) and Link C (019633) [1]

Group 1 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the short term, indicating that it is not yet time for high-low switching, while mid-term expectations are for a physical re-inflation bull market [3][10][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of technology innovation, highlighting that the technology sector is expected to continue its growth, particularly in industries with clear growth expectations such as pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs), electronics (PCB), and communications (optical modules) [6][54] - The report notes a shift in market dynamics, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks, driven by factors such as superior earnings under inflation, resilience in return on equity (ROE), and the expansion of ETFs favoring large-cap styles [12][34][35] Group 2 - The report discusses the "barbell strategy," which is suitable for low-price environments, indicating that as inflation expectations rise, the demand for the reverse barbell strategy will increase [4][19] - The report highlights the performance of the technology bull market and the return of leading blue-chip stocks, noting that since June 25, there has been a reversal in style within the technology sector, with large-cap stocks gaining significant traction [5][33][36] - The report identifies key industries to focus on in the mid-term, particularly those experiencing supply constraints and price increases due to the ongoing "anti-involution" policies, including industrial metals, small metals, steel, petrochemicals, and construction materials [6][56]