Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the US soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed, and a bumper South American new - crop is likely [2] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival and customs clearance of South American imported soybeans [2] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 3090 yuan/ton (-10), 3300 yuan/ton (120), and 3270 yuan/ton (50) respectively [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - US soybean trade; the market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak; the current spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease, and post - holiday downstream replenishment may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2184 yuan/ton and 2404 yuan/ton respectively; the purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - US tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil; currently, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the old - new grain gap period, with prices likely to rise, and it is advisable to go long in the short term [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78300 - 78860 yuan, up 390 yuan, with a premium of 240 - 280 yuan; the imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties; domestic policies support the market; raw material issues persist, and copper is in a stage of resonance with complex market conditions [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper prices is balanced, and it is advisable to participate selectively based on the moving average system in the short term [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate are 66200 (-650) yuan/ton and 64500 (-650) yuan/ton respectively, with a stable price difference of 1700 yuan/ton [7] - Market analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, supply is rising (especially from mica and potential increase from salt - lake lithium extraction), and demand is improving but not enough to drive prices up; inventory is increasing [7][8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, the contango structure is weakening, the valuation is moderately low; cost is dynamic, inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a supply - demand strong pattern [9] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, it is advisable to go long on the far - month contract at low levels after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly and rebound at low levels, with limited upside [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 773 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 761 yuan [11] - Market analysis: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the iron ore market; supply has a slight decline, port inventory is decreasing, and demand is mixed [11] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the iron ore 2505 contract will be oscillatory, and traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply; the Fed's stance and domestic policies in China have an impact, and the 55 - dollar/barrel level of WTI has technical support [12] - Reference view: WTI will mainly oscillate between 55 - 60 dollars/barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in; supply is increasing, and demand may be affected by the US auto tariff [12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [13] - Reference view: Due to weak demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1413.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable with little production fluctuation, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average with resistance to high - price goods [14] - Reference view: The futures market of soda ash will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term; soybean meal may oscillate weakly; after the holiday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn price is expected to follow the foreign market, but domestic factors will dominate later [1] - **Copper**: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound at low levels, with limited upside space [6] - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore may decline with oscillations in the short - term [7] - **Crude Oil**: The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel, and the domestic market may offset the decline during the holiday, with neutral fluctuations [8] - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and the main contract has support at around 14,000 yuan per ton [9] - **PVC**: The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [10] - **Soda Ash**: After the holiday, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Market Conditions**: As of May 2, the US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of domestic soybean oil may end, and the inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to ease, and the downstream will start restocking [1] - **Spot Information**: 43% soybean meal prices in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3530 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively; new - corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [1] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the overseas capital market is highly volatile. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply of copper still has problems, and the price is in a resonance state [2] - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77840 - 78060 yuan, down 85 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 260 yuan [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The cost of lithium carbonate is decreasing as the price of spodumene concentrate drops. Supply is increasing with a slowdown in growth rate, and the resumption of production at salt lakes may impact prices. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum [3] - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the total inventory was 131,864 tons, with increases in smelter and downstream inventories [4] - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 67,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade (99.2%) is 662,000 yuan/ton [3] Steel - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a weakening contango structure and a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. The cost of steel is dynamic, and inventories are decreasing [5] - **Spot Information**: Shanghai rebar price is 3160 yuan, with social and mill inventories of 532.76 million tons and 200.4 million tons respectively [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, with stable domestic production and high - level Mongolian coal imports. Demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts. Inventories are slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal and metallurgical coke at different ports is provided, along with port inventories [6] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments are rising. Port inventories have decreased, and domestic steel mill demand has increased, but procurement is still cautious. Trade - war concerns limit price increases [7] - **Spot Information**: Iron ore indexes and prices of different types of iron ore are provided [7] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply. The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The impact of US tariffs on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. Demand may be affected by trade - war factors [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided PVC - **Market Conditions**: The production rate of PVC has increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased [10] - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC and the price difference are provided [10] Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: The production of soda ash is stable, and inventories are decreasing. Demand is average, with a preference for low - price products. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is weak [11] - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions are provided [11]