1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term supply in China is sufficient. Before the holiday, the fundamentals are bearish, and caution is needed when going long. Due to the Sino - US trade tariff issue, the continuous downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to view it as a range - bound market. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations still take time. Its trend currently follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy drag down palm oil adjustment. The market expects Malaysian palm oil to continue to accumulate inventory in September, which may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile market. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil exports in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and the approaching US soybean harvest may put pressure on the soybean oil market. After the domestic double - festival spot inventory replenishment ends, it has recently followed the palm oil market. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel trends and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic rapeseed oil de - stocking cycle support the rapeseed oil price to maintain a high - level and strong - side oscillation. However, the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward performance. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian negotiations and the follow - up trends of US biodiesel policy [1]. - **Cotton**: The increasing supply from the US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the weak export demand and the high level of unpriced long positions, are expected to keep the cotton market under pressure. Domestically, the new cotton harvest has started, and the opening price is not strongly supported. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the foreign trade is affected by trade policies and exchange rates. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][9][11]. - **Red Dates**: Based on the current production expectations and carry - over inventory, there is still pressure after the new dates are launched. In the short term, the weather window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually alleviating, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to short on rallies during market speculation [1][13]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is under pressure from both the supply side and the feed price adjustment. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is obvious, and the spot price continues to decline. With the improvement of the inventory structure, pay attention to whether the spread between standard and fat hogs can widen during the peak season to drive the market up. In the far - month, there is no clear positive news in capacity regulation. It is recommended to short - allocate the November contract and maintain the inter - month reverse spread strategy, considering the 07 and future 09 contracts for the long side of the reverse spread [1][16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3014.29 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 160.6813 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.30 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, or 5.26%. The soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons, or 7.35% [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2405 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2581.05 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 228.7825 yuan/ton, down 22.41 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 9234 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day. The national average price is 9295 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 9382 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 million tons, or 8.79% [7]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 is 13350 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous day. The domestic spot price is 15059 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The ICE cotton main contract is 65.19 cents/pound, up 0.08% [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure is increasing as the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries enter the harvest season. Domestically, the new cotton processing is about 22%, the harvest in the northern Xinjiang is slightly delayed, and the demand is weak [9][10]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 is 10915 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from the previous day [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the demand in the sales area is weak [13]. Hogs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 2.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 12750 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long term, the sow inventory is decreasing [15][16].

Market Overview - On September 25, domestic oil mills saw a continued decline in soybean meal transactions, with a total volume of 103,000 tons, down 150,000 tons from the previous day. The spot transaction volume was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 53,200 tons, while basis transaction volume was 26,000 tons, down 96,800 tons. The average transaction price was 2,956.59 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.03 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Export Data - According to the USDA, as of the week ending September 18, net sales of soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 80,000 tons, up from 31,000 tons the previous week. For the 2025/2026 marketing year, net sales were 147,000 tons, slightly down from 151,000 tons the prior week [1]. Price Trends - On September 26, the spot prices for 43% soybean meal in East China showed a weak trend, with prices in various locations as follows: Taizhou Huifu at 2,890 yuan (down 10), Taixing Bangji at 2,900 yuan (down 10), Zhoushan Zhonghai at 2,900 yuan (down 10), Ningbo Jinguang at 2,920 yuan (down 10), and Wuhu Yihai at 2,940 yuan (unchanged) [1]. Institutional Insights - Zhonghui Futures indicated that soybean meal is in a consolidation phase, and short-term rebounds should be approached with caution. The ongoing U.S.-China trade tariff issues are expected to limit the downward space for soybean meal [1]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures reported that the Argentine government has temporarily eliminated export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives (soybean meal and oil), corn, and wheat to increase foreign exchange supply and curb the depreciation of its currency. The export tax on Argentine soybeans and soybean meal has been reduced from 26% and 24.5% to 0%. This move is expected to exert pressure on the global soybean market. However, the recent elimination of export taxes has attracted many buyers, and the $7 billion quota has been completed ahead of schedule, indicating that the tax exemption period has ended. The outlook for U.S. soybeans remains uncertain amid ongoing harvests and trade tariffs [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish outlook**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish or require caution. For example, soybean meal has limited upside due to harvest and inventory, while cotton is pressured by supply and weak demand [1][8][11]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation due to trade disputes and inventory cycles [1]. - **Weak - oscillation in the short - term**: Palm oil and soybean oil are likely to experience weak oscillations in the short - term because of policy uncertainties and inventory concerns [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract, daily close) is 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 37.43 yuan or 1.25% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, down 70.30 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons (5.26%) week - on - week, and their soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons (7.35%) week - on - week [3]. - **Market analysis**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term domestic supply is sufficient. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continuous downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract, daily close) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan or 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 37.9 yuan or 1.50% [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [5]. - **Market analysis**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, but the impact of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade limits the upside. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract, daily close) is 9222 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9250 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 2.04% [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons (8.79%) week - on - week [7]. - **Market analysis**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and expected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to show a weak - oscillation trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil export in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of cotton (CF2601, main contract) is 13530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous value. The domestic spot price is 15107 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **Supply - demand data**: US cotton harvest is progressing, and other northern hemisphere countries are also about to enter the harvest season, increasing supply pressure. Domestic new cotton harvest has started, and the demand performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal, and the foreign trade outlook is weak [9][10][11]. - **Market analysis**: It is expected to maintain a pressured - oscillation market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short - term [11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Price data**: The futures price of jujube (CJ2601, main contract) is 10970 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 1.72% from the previous value. The price of Hebei special - grade grey jujube has a slight increase [12]. - **Supply - demand data**: The estimated new - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap considering the carry - over inventory. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Market analysis**: Concerns about quality are gradually easing, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to be cautious in trading and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of live pigs (Lh2511, main contract) is 12685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. The national average spot price is 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [16]. - **Supply - demand data**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long - term, the number of fertile sows is decreasing [17]. - **Market analysis**: The spot price is under pressure. In the short - term, the 11 - contract should be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse - spread strategy should be maintained [18].

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8080 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - International soybean situation: It is currently the US soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season, with Brazil's soybean harvest almost completed, and a bumper South American new - crop is likely [2] - Domestic industry: The medium - term de - stocking cycle of soybean oil may be ending, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival and customs clearance of South American imported soybeans [2] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract may be range - bound [2] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 3090 yuan/ton (-10), 3300 yuan/ton (120), and 3270 yuan/ton (50) respectively [3] - Market analysis: The Sino - US trade tariff issue remains unresolved, affecting Sino - US soybean trade; the market focus has shifted to the North American sowing season, and Brazilian soybeans are about to enter the export peak; the current spot supply of soybean meal is tight, but it will gradually ease, and post - holiday downstream replenishment may boost short - term trading volume [3] - Reference view: Soybean meal may run weakly in the short term [3] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, North China and Huanghuai are 2184 yuan/ton and 2404 yuan/ton respectively; the purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Bayuquan Port are 2260 - 2270 yuan/ton and 2250 - 2270 yuan/ton respectively [4] - Market analysis: The Sino - US tariff dispute has limited impact on the corn market due to China's decreasing import dependence and import from Brazil; currently, the supply is tight, and the downstream demand is weak [4] - Reference view: The domestic corn market is in the old - new grain gap period, with prices likely to rise, and it is advisable to go long in the short term [4] Group 4: Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78300 - 78860 yuan, up 390 yuan, with a premium of 240 - 280 yuan; the imported copper ore index is - 42.61, down 0.09 [5] - Market analysis: The Fed maintains the interest rate, and there are uncertainties; domestic policies support the market; raw material issues persist, and copper is in a stage of resonance with complex market conditions [6] - Reference view: The monthly K - line of copper prices is balanced, and it is advisable to participate selectively based on the moving average system in the short term [6] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate are 66200 (-650) yuan/ton and 64500 (-650) yuan/ton respectively, with a stable price difference of 1700 yuan/ton [7] - Market analysis: Cost pressure is increasing, supply is rising (especially from mica and potential increase from salt - lake lithium extraction), and demand is improving but not enough to drive prices up; inventory is increasing [7][8] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to go short on rallies [8] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3160 yuan, the Tangshan operation rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 532.76 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 200.4 million tons [9] - Market analysis: The fundamentals of steel are improving, the contango structure is weakening, the valuation is moderately low; cost is dynamic, inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a supply - demand strong pattern [9] - Reference view: After the macro - negative factors are digested, it is advisable to go long on the far - month contract at low levels after May [9] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1340 yuan/ton; the port inventories of imported coking coal and coke are 337.38 million tons and 246.10 million tons respectively [10] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [10] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly and rebound at low levels, with limited upside [10] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.15, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 773 yuan, and the price of Australian 62% Fe powder ore is 761 yuan [11] - Market analysis: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the iron ore market; supply has a slight decline, port inventory is decreasing, and demand is mixed [11] - Reference view: The short - term trend of the iron ore 2505 contract will be oscillatory, and traders should be cautious [11] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply; the Fed's stance and domestic policies in China have an impact, and the 55 - dollar/barrel level of WTI has technical support [12] - Reference view: WTI will mainly oscillate between 55 - 60 dollars/barrel [12] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: The impact of the US "reciprocal tariff" on rubber prices has been mostly priced in; supply is increasing, and demand may be affected by the US auto tariff [12] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [12] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China Type 5 PVC is 4700 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous period [13] - Market analysis: The PVC production enterprise operation rate is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [13] - Reference view: Due to weak demand, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [13] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1413.75 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [14] - Market analysis: Supply is relatively stable with little production fluctuation, inventory is decreasing, and demand is average with resistance to high - price goods [14] - Reference view: The futures market of soda ash will mainly oscillate widely in the short term [14]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports 2. Core Views - **Soybean and Related Products**: Soybean oil 2509 contract may fluctuate within a range in the short - term; soybean meal may oscillate weakly; after the holiday, the Dalian Commodity Exchange corn price is expected to follow the foreign market, but domestic factors will dominate later [1] - **Copper**: The monthly K - line of copper price shows a balance between yin and yang, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the moving average system [2] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate may oscillate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [3][4] - **Steel**: After the macro - negative factors are digested, a long - position strategy can be considered for the far - month contracts at low levels after May [5] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to the loose supply, coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound at low levels, with limited upside space [6] - **Iron Ore**: The 2505 contract of iron ore may decline with oscillations in the short - term [7] - **Crude Oil**: The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel, and the domestic market may offset the decline during the holiday, with neutral fluctuations [8] - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the downstream operation rate of Shanghai rubber, and the main contract has support at around 14,000 yuan per ton [9] - **PVC**: The futures price may oscillate at a low level due to weak demand [10] - **Soda Ash**: After the holiday, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term [11] 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean and Related Products - **Market Conditions**: As of May 2, the US soybean and soybean oil futures rose. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The mid - term de - stocking cycle of domestic soybean oil may end, and the inventory may rebound. The supply of domestic soybean meal is expected to ease, and the downstream will start restocking [1] - **Spot Information**: 43% soybean meal prices in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3530 yuan/ton, and 3380 yuan/ton respectively; new - corn purchase prices in different regions are provided [1] Copper - **Market Conditions**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the overseas capital market is highly volatile. The Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply of copper still has problems, and the price is in a resonance state [2] - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 77840 - 78060 yuan, down 85 yuan, with a premium of 200 - 260 yuan [2] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The cost of lithium carbonate is decreasing as the price of spodumene concentrate drops. Supply is increasing with a slowdown in growth rate, and the resumption of production at salt lakes may impact prices. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum [3] - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory has been accumulating. As of April 24, the total inventory was 131,864 tons, with increases in smelter and downstream inventories [4] - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 67,900 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade (99.2%) is 662,000 yuan/ton [3] Steel - **Market Conditions**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, with a weakening contango structure and a neutral - low valuation. Policy supports the real estate industry. The cost of steel is dynamic, and inventories are decreasing [5] - **Spot Information**: Shanghai rebar price is 3160 yuan, with social and mill inventories of 532.76 million tons and 200.4 million tons respectively [5] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, with stable domestic production and high - level Mongolian coal imports. Demand is weak due to steel mill production cuts. Inventories are slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [6] - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal and metallurgical coke at different ports is provided, along with port inventories [6] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. Australian shipments have decreased, while Brazilian shipments are rising. Port inventories have decreased, and domestic steel mill demand has increased, but procurement is still cautious. Trade - war concerns limit price increases [7] - **Spot Information**: Iron ore indexes and prices of different types of iron ore are provided [7] Crude Oil - **Market Conditions**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and the market expects oversupply. The WTI main contract has support at $55 per barrel [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided Rubber - **Market Conditions**: The impact of US tariffs on rubber prices has been mostly priced in. The supply is increasing as domestic and Southeast Asian rubber trees start to be tapped. Demand may be affected by trade - war factors [8] - **Spot Information**: Not provided PVC - **Market Conditions**: The production rate of PVC has increased, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased [10] - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC and the price difference are provided [10] Soda Ash - **Market Conditions**: The production of soda ash is stable, and inventories are decreasing. Demand is average, with a preference for low - price products. The market sentiment has improved, but the fundamental driving force is weak [11] - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of heavy soda ash in different regions are provided [11]