1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main futures price of soybean oil has been fluctuating and adjusting this week. China's soybean oil inventory continues to accumulate, with sufficient supply and a weak current situation. In the fourth quarter, which is the traditional consumption peak season for soybean oil, and as it is currently the most cost - effective oil, the inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline, and the futures price center of soybean oil is expected to move up slightly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean oil, with support levels at 8150 - 8200 yuan/ton and pressure levels at 8400 - 8450 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Rapeseed oil futures have been weakening. The market is worried about the possible consultation on the import control policy of Canadian rapeseed between the two countries, which suppresses the rapeseed oil futures price. The policy expectation mainly affects the market sentiment. The basis price in the spot market has risen slightly today, showing a divergence from the futures price. The inventory of rapeseed oil is continuously decreasing, and enterprises are strongly willing to support prices. The basis of rapeseed oil remains stable, and the market is in a stalemate. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the unilateral operation of the 01 contract or buy options to protect existing positions. The support level of the main 01 contract of rapeseed oil is 9800 - 9820 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 10020 - 10050 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: The main contract of palm oil has been weakly adjusting this week. The inventory pressure in the palm oil - producing areas in Southeast Asia is not large, and the inventory is expected to enter the November production - reduction season lightly. Coupled with Indonesia's test of B50, the supply - demand of palm oil is expected to narrow in the fourth quarter, and the medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. Aggressive strategies can consider holding long positions or buying out - of - the - money call options after the price stabilizes. The support level of the main contract of palm oil is 9230 - 9270 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 9650 - 9680 yuan/ton [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The main contract of soybean meal futures has broken through the support level and declined. The U.S. soybean crushing volume exceeds market expectations, and Sino - U.S. trade frictions continue. The current weather in the world's major soybean - producing areas is relatively good, which is suitable for the harvest of U.S. soybeans and the sowing of Brazilian soybeans, and the upward driving force of U.S. soybeans is also insufficient. China's domestic inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is relatively sufficient, and the supply remains loose. It is advisable to lightly short the main contract of soybean meal unilaterally or consider selling out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of soybeans. The support level of the main contract of soybean meal is 2800 - 2830 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2960 - 2970 yuan/ton. The support level of the main contract of Bean No. 2 is 3500 - 3530 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 3675 - 3700 yuan/ton [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The sentiment of rapeseed meal has been weak. The market generally expects that the two countries may consult on the rapeseed trade policy. Rapeseed meal is facing the dual pressures of the seasonal consumption off - season and the squeeze of substitute varieties, and the terminal purchasing willingness is low. The continuous weakness of soybean meal also drags down rapeseed meal. It is necessary to focus on the results of Sino - Canadian trade negotiations and wait and see before the policy is clear. Consider going long on the oil - meal ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed. The support level of the main contract of rapeseed meal is 2230 - 2250 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton [5][6]. - **Bean No. 1**: The futures price of Bean No. 1 has risen this week. The new - season soybeans in the Northeast market have basically completed the harvest, and the grain trading enterprises are actively purchasing. The high - protein soybeans are in short supply and the price is firm, while the low - protein soybeans have a weak price. With the concentrated listing of soybeans in the Northeast and the low valuation of Bean No. 1 and the reluctance of farmers to sell, the domestic soybean price is running strongly. It is advisable to hold long positions in the main contract of Bean No. 1. The pressure level of the 11 contract of Bean No. 1 is in the range of 4050 - 4080 yuan/ton, and the support level is in the range of 3900 - 3930 yuan/ton [6]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price of peanuts has remained stable over the weekend. The probability of purchasing U.S. soybeans has increased due to the new round of Sino - U.S. trade negotiations. The planting area of new - season peanuts has increased this year, and the planting cost has decreased year - on - year. Currently, the area and quantity of peanut listing are gradually increasing, with upward pressure. However, the futures price has reflected the expected increase in production, and the yield per unit in some areas of Henan is not good, so the downward space of the futures price is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the purchasing dynamics of oil - pressing plants and the new - season procurement situation. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The support level of the 01 contract is 7900 - 7550 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 8020 - 8160 yuan/ton [6]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The futures prices of corn and corn starch have shown a low - level oscillating trend this week. In the external market, there is a game between the harvest pressure in the Northern Hemisphere and the good export of U.S. corn, and the sowing in South America has started smoothly, so the overall futures price is expected to remain oscillating at a low level. In the domestic market, the new - season harvest is progressing, and the continuous rainy weather in North China has brought new differences to the market. After the futures price refreshed the low point, the market has entered a new game. Considering that the new - season harvest is still in progress, the listing pressure may not be fully reflected, and the futures price is still in the process of finding the bottom. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously or pay attention to the reverse spread of the 1 - 5 spread of corn. For options, consider selling out - of - the - money call options. The support range of the 01 contract of corn is 2000 - 2020 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2180 - 2200 yuan/ton. The support range of the 11 contract of corn starch is 2340 - 2350 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2480 - 2500 yuan/ton [7]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs has been fluctuating narrowly over the weekend. Recently, the hog price has fallen below the breeding cost, and the hog - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 5:1, with significantly reduced breeding profits. Under the atmosphere of "anti - involution" to limit production capacity, the near - end slaughter of hogs has increased. The futures price of hogs has hit a new annual low. This week, the national average spot price of hogs is about 10.67 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.23 yuan/kg compared with last Friday. Before the festival, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly month - on - month, was at a high level year - on - year, and was higher than that in 2023. The near - end farmers are actively slaughtering, and the supply of standard hogs is loose. The price of 7 - kg piglets has fallen close to the slaughter cost. In terms of the futures price, the Sino - U.S. restart of negotiations is expected to make the agricultural product index oscillate weakly as a whole, and the futures price of hogs is currently at a premium to the spot price. The 01 contract refers to the range of 11000 - 13000 points. Cautious investors can hold the reverse spread of shorting the near - month contract and going long on the far - month contract, and aggressive investors can buy the 2605 contract when the price falls below the breeding cost in the medium - term and sell deep out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 15000 points to reduce the bottom - fishing cost [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs has been generally stable with a slight weakness over the weekend. After the seasonal decline, the egg price has stabilized. Since the 10 contract is in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival, the futures price has a weak follow - up to the spot price. Currently, the egg index continues to oscillate at the bottom and has reached a historical low. In October, the terminal consumption is expected to decline month - on - month, the current stocking demand has weakened, and farmers are gradually increasing the culling of laying hens, and the price of culled hens has also declined. The supply - demand pattern has marginally improved. The national spot price over the weekend is about 3.00 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin compared with last Friday. Fundamentally, the current egg price is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of laying hens is at a historical high. It is necessary to wait for farmers to increase the culling of laying hens to drive the reduction of production capacity. Aggressive investors can buy the 2512 contract unilaterally at low prices in the short - term. Since the egg index has approached the historical low level, it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling in speculative trading or buy the positive spread between the 12 - 1 month contracts at low prices [9]. 3. Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Soybean Oil 01**: The fundamental situation has not changed much, affected by the significant fluctuations of crude oil recently. The current supply is sufficient, and the supply - demand is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. The market is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is advisable to hold long positions lightly [12]. - **Rapeseed Oil 01**: The purchase of rapeseed is relatively small, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in Sino - Canadian trade relations. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Palm 01**: The production of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, but the inventory pressure in the producing areas is not large. Indonesia plans to promote B50, and the downward space of the palm oil price is limited. The medium - to - long - term bullish view remains unchanged. It is advisable to hold long positions [12]. - **Soybean Meal 01**: The current inventory of oil - pressing soybeans and soybean meal is sufficient, and the feed demand for soybean meal is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, with insufficient bullish driving forces. The bullish expectation lies in the continuous Sino - U.S. trade frictions. The market is expected to oscillate widely, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Rapeseed Meal 01**: The market is affected by the expected relaxation of trade policies and the weakening of demand. It is necessary to pay attention to Sino - Canadian trade policies. The market is expected to oscillate and adjust, and it is advisable to wait and see [12]. - **Corn 01**: The overall pressure environment remains unchanged, with short - term rhythm disturbances. However, the harvest is still in progress, and the pressure has not been fully released. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Starch 11**: The price of corn, the cost end, is expected to face pressure, and the enterprise's inventory accumulation expectation puts pressure on the spot price. The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to hold short positions cautiously [12]. - **Hogs 01**: The feed price has stopped falling and rebounded, and there are policies to reduce production capacity in the industry. The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is advisable to mainly wait and see [12]. - **Eggs 12**: Affected by production capacity pressure and the expectation of the consumption peak season, the market is expected to find the bottom through oscillation, and it is advisable to buy at low prices [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, basis of the main contracts, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including soybeans, peanuts, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock products [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Fats and Oils - **Daily Data**: The report provides the import cost data of fats and oils, including the arrival premium, CBOT soybean futures price, CNF arrival price, soybean import arrival duty - paid price, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is 0 for different shipping dates of soybeans from Brazil, Argentina, and the U.S. Gulf. It also provides relevant data for rapeseed and palm oil shipping dates [14][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The report provides the weekly data of fats and oils, including the inventory and operating rate of soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [17]. 3.2.2 Feed The report provides the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Hogs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the hog market, including the spot price, breeding cost, profit, slaughter data, and other indicators [19]. - **Eggs**: The report provides the key weekly data of the egg market, including supply - side indicators such as the laying rate, the proportion of different sizes of eggs, the age of culled hens, and the supply of culled hens, demand - side indicators such as inventory, and profit - related indicators [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Hogs and Eggs)**: The report provides charts of the closing price of the main contract of hogs, the closing price of the main contract of eggs, the spot price of hogs, the price of piglets, the price of white - striped pork, the spot price of eggs, the price of chicken chicks, and the price of culled hens [22][24][25]. - **Fats and Oils**: - **Palm Oil**: The report provides charts of the monthly production, export volume, and ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil, the import parity profit of palm oil, the import volume, domestic inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of palm oil [32][33][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report provides charts of the U.S. soybean crushing volume, U.S. soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, daily trading volume, price spreads, and basis of soybean oil [39][40][44]. - **Peanuts**: The report provides charts of the arrival and shipment volume of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the daily crushing profit of peanuts, the weekly raw material procurement volume of some oil - pressing plants, the weekly operating rate of peanuts, the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in oil - pressing plants, the monthly import volume of peanuts, price spreads, and basis of peanuts [46][48]. - **Feed**: - **Corn**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price spreads, port inventory, import volume, consumption by deep - processing enterprises, inventory of deep - processing enterprises, ethanol processing profit, and price difference between corn and wheat of corn [50][52][55]. - **Corn Starch**: The report provides charts of the spot price, closing price, basis, price difference with corn, enterprise operating rate, inventory, price difference with flour, and weekly profit of corn starch [59][61][62]. - **Rapeseed**: The report provides charts of the spot price of rapeseed meal, the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil, basis, inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal in coastal oil mills, inventory of rapeseed oil, rapeseed crushing volume, domestic rapeseed crushing profit, and the delivery volume of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in coastal areas [64][66][68]. - **Soybean Meal**: The report provides charts of the flowering rate and pod - setting rate of U.S. soybeans, the inventory of soybeans in national ports, and the inventory of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills [73][75]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Fats and Oils The report provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest,

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Volatility**: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Short - term Bullish**: Palm oil, Soybean oil [1] - **Bullish**: Rapeseed oil [1] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Cotton, Red dates, Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term volatility is expected due to the intersection of long and short factors such as the harvest of US soybeans, Sino - US trade negotiations, and dry weather in Brazilian soybean planting. The adjustment space is limited before the Sino - US negotiations start [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is expected to show short - term volatility, following the trend of soybean meal. Trade policies and high inventory lead to the intersection of long and short factors. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still takes time, and the positive impact is limited [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish. The Indonesian government's bio - fuel policies are expected to increase future demand, but the absence of the Southeast Asian减产 season may limit the continuous upward space [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, mainly following the palm oil market. The US government shutdown and other factors have led to an optimistic sentiment in the US soybean market [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to run strongly. Low oil mill operating rates, market sentiment of hoarding and price - holding, and the consumption peak season, along with the hype of palm oil's bio - fuel concept, support its bullish trend [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautiously bearish. The supply of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the demand has not improved significantly. In the domestic market, new cotton harvesting is progressing, and the demand outlook is weak [1][10][11]. - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bearish. Considering the expected production and inventory, there is still pressure after the new fruits are listed. Although the concern about quality is gradually alleviated, there may be significant price fluctuations due to weather speculation [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bearish. The supply pressure is strong due to the active slaughter of large farms and increased slaughter by retail farmers. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [1][17]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of September 26, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 938500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40200 tons; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 719910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 25250 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 118920 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6080 tons [3]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2939 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 3025.14 yuan/ton. The basis of different contracts and cross - variety spreads showed certain changes [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 2600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 250 tons [6]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 2435 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price was 2593.16 yuan/ton. The basis and cross - variety spreads changed [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory and Production**: As of September 26, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 552200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32900 tons. The Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month [8]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures price of the main contract was 9570 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 9555 yuan/ton. The cross - period and cross - variety spreads showed changes [7]. Cotton - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is increasing, and the export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting is ongoing, and the demand is weak [10][11]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts showed small increases, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The cotton profit of textile enterprises decreased, and the开机 rates of spinning mills and weaving factories were relatively stable [9]. Red Dates - **Production and Inventory**: The estimated new - season production is 560000 - 620000 tons, a decrease compared with previous years. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons compared with the previous period [15]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts increased slightly, and the basis and cross - period spreads changed. The arrival volume in Guangdong increased [13]. Live Pigs - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong due to the large - scale enterprises'出栏 pressure and the increase in the number of slaughtered pigs. The terminal demand is expected to decline after the double - festival stocking [17]. - **Price and Spread**: The futures prices of different contracts decreased, and the basis, cross - period spreads, and other indicators changed. The national sample enterprises'生猪存栏 and出栏 increased slightly [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term supply in China is sufficient. Before the holiday, the fundamentals are bearish, and caution is needed when going long. Due to the Sino - US trade tariff issue, the continuous downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to view it as a range - bound market. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations still take time. Its trend currently follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. - **Palm Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy drag down palm oil adjustment. The market expects Malaysian palm oil to continue to accumulate inventory in September, which may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to be in a short - term weak and volatile market. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil exports in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. - **Soybean Oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and the approaching US soybean harvest may put pressure on the soybean oil market. After the domestic double - festival spot inventory replenishment ends, it has recently followed the palm oil market. Attention should be paid to US biodiesel trends and the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian trade dispute and the domestic rapeseed oil de - stocking cycle support the rapeseed oil price to maintain a high - level and strong - side oscillation. However, the gradual development of Sino - Australian trade restricts its continuous upward performance. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - Canadian negotiations and the follow - up trends of US biodiesel policy [1]. - **Cotton**: The increasing supply from the US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, along with the weak export demand and the high level of unpriced long positions, are expected to keep the cotton market under pressure. Domestically, the new cotton harvest has started, and the opening price is not strongly supported. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal, and the foreign trade is affected by trade policies and exchange rates. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][9][11]. - **Red Dates**: Based on the current production expectations and carry - over inventory, there is still pressure after the new dates are launched. In the short term, the weather window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually alleviating, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to short on rallies during market speculation [1][13]. - **Hogs**: The spot market is under pressure from both the supply side and the feed price adjustment. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is obvious, and the spot price continues to decline. With the improvement of the inventory structure, pay attention to whether the spread between standard and fat hogs can widen during the peak season to drive the market up. In the far - month, there is no clear positive news in capacity regulation. It is recommended to short - allocate the November contract and maintain the inter - month reverse spread strategy, considering the 07 and future 09 contracts for the long side of the reverse spread [1][16]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2937 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3014.29 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The national average soybean crushing profit is - 160.6813 yuan/ton, down 14.88 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 70.30 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, or 5.26%. The soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons, or 7.35% [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 2405 yuan/ton, down 1.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2581.05 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit is - 228.7825 yuan/ton, down 22.41 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract is 9234 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the previous day. The national average price is 9295 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import cost is 9382 yuan/ton, unchanged [6]. - **Inventory Data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key areas' palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.64 million tons, or 8.79% [7]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CF2601 is 13350 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous day. The domestic spot price is 15059 yuan/ton, down 0.50%. The ICE cotton main contract is 65.19 cents/pound, up 0.08% [8][9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Internationally, the supply pressure is increasing as the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries enter the harvest season. Domestically, the new cotton processing is about 22%, the harvest in the northern Xinjiang is slightly delayed, and the demand is weak [9][10]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract CJ2601 is 10915 yuan/ton, down 2.33% from the previous day [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The main production areas are in the coloring and sugaring stage. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, and the demand in the sales area is weak [13]. Hogs - **Price Information**: The futures price of the main contract Lh2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 2.61% from the previous day. The spot price is 12750 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [14][15]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short and medium term, the supply pressure is large, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long term, the sow inventory is decreasing [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term bearish outlook**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, the short - term trends are either bearish or require caution. For example, soybean meal has limited upside due to harvest and inventory, while cotton is pressured by supply and weak demand [1][8][11]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation due to trade disputes and inventory cycles [1]. - **Weak - oscillation in the short - term**: Palm oil and soybean oil are likely to experience weak oscillations in the short - term because of policy uncertainties and inventory concerns [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract, daily close) is 2967 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 37.43 yuan or 1.25% [2]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 898.3 million tons, down 70.30 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons (5.26%) week - on - week, and their soybean meal inventory is 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons (7.35%) week - on - week [3]. - **Market analysis**: US soybean harvest has started, and the short - term domestic supply is sufficient. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continuous downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress during the harvest season [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract, daily close) is 2444 yuan/ton, up 49 yuan or 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 37.9 yuan or 1.50% [4]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [5]. - **Market analysis**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed shows that Sino - Canadian trade negotiations will take time, but the impact of Sino - Australian rapeseed trade limits the upside. Its trend mainly follows that of soybean meal, and attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract, daily close) is 9222 yuan/ton, up 96 yuan or 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price is 9250 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 2.04% [6]. - **Inventory data**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons (8.79%) week - on - week [7]. - **Market analysis**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policy and expected inventory build - up in Malaysian palm oil in September may suppress its performance before the double festivals. It is expected to show a weak - oscillation trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to Malaysian palm oil export in September and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price data**: The futures price of cotton (CF2601, main contract) is 13530 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.18% from the previous value. The domestic spot price is 15107 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [8]. - **Supply - demand data**: US cotton harvest is progressing, and other northern hemisphere countries are also about to enter the harvest season, increasing supply pressure. Domestic new cotton harvest has started, and the demand performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" is not ideal, and the foreign trade outlook is weak [9][10][11]. - **Market analysis**: It is expected to maintain a pressured - oscillation market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short - term [11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Price data**: The futures price of jujube (CJ2601, main contract) is 10970 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan or 1.72% from the previous value. The price of Hebei special - grade grey jujube has a slight increase [12]. - **Supply - demand data**: The estimated new - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap considering the carry - over inventory. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Market analysis**: Concerns about quality are gradually easing, but there may be large price fluctuations before November. It is recommended to be cautious in trading and look for opportunities to short on price rebounds [15]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price data**: The futures price of live pigs (Lh2511, main contract) is 12685 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan or 0.35% from the previous value. The national average spot price is 12840 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [16]. - **Supply - demand data**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is gradually improving. In the long - term, the number of fertile sows is decreasing [17]. - **Market analysis**: The spot price is under pressure. In the short - term, the 11 - contract should be short - allocated on rebounds, and the inter - month reverse - spread strategy should be maintained [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline in soybean meal**: Domestic short - term supply is sufficient, and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on soybean meal. However, due to Sino - US trade issues, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. There is a possibility of a retracement to 2930 yuan for support confirmation. Be cautious about bullish operations before the holiday [1][4]. - **Short - term decline in rapeseed meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in palm oil**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are positive for consumption expectations, but frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may limit its performance before the double holidays. Be cautious about bullish operations [1][8]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in soybean oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and the approaching US soybean harvest may pressure soybean oil, while domestic double - festival stocking demand is positive, but there is a lack of its own upward - driving force. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end [1]. - **Oscillating and bullish in rapeseed oil**: Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand support high - level and strong oscillations, but the resumption of Sino - Australian trade restricts continuous upward movement. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian negotiations and US biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautiously bearish on cotton**: US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries' increasing supply pressures the market, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting has started with no obvious price - holding behavior. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][12]. - **Cautiously bearish on red dates**: Although there is an expected reduction in new - season production, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap after considering inventory. The weather speculation window is shrinking, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][14]. - **Cautiously bearish on live pigs**: The spot market is under continuous pressure from supply, and the bearish sentiment in the futures market is rising. In the short and medium term, supply pressure is obvious. Consider short - selling the November contract on rebounds and maintaining the reverse - spread strategy [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, down 70.3 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons week - on - week; and bean粕 inventory was 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average soybean crushing profit was - 150.7804 yuan/ton, up 14.45 yuan; the basis of bean粕01 was - 84 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.79 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [5]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 172.3755 yuan/ton, up 18.69 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal01 was 42 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the national key area commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons week - on - week; the weekly commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons [7][8]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of bullish views was 29%, down 6 percentage points; the proportion of bearish views was 47%, up 29 percentage points [7]. Cotton - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - **Prices**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13610 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the domestic spot price was 15242 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9][10]. - **Operation and Profit**: The mainstream area spinning mills' operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage point; the weaving mills' operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the spinning mills' cotton profit was - 994.30 yuan/ton, up 112.20 yuan [9]. Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Prices**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10735 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day; the spot price of Kashgar general - grade dates remained unchanged at 6 yuan/kg [13]. - **Market Situation**: The yield is expected to decrease, but there may not be a significant supply - demand gap after considering inventory [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig存栏 was 3782.4 million heads, up 0.51%; the planned September slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month [15][16]. - **Prices**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the latest spot price was 12930 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [15][16]. - **Operation and Profit**: The key slaughter enterprises' daily operating rate was 32.95%, up 0.21 percentage points; the slaughter profit was - 18.2 yuan/head, up 0.70 yuan [15].

Group 1 - The main contract for rapeseed meal futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 2530.00 yuan, with a current price of 2525.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.27% [1] - Domestic supply pressure is reduced due to a decrease in the arrival of rapeseed, while seasonal demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing [2][4] - The implementation of temporary anti-dumping measures on rapeseed by China further weakens long-term supply expectations [2] Group 2 - Short-term trends for rapeseed meal are expected to follow soybean meal prices, with limited arrivals of rapeseed impacting inventory levels [3][4] - The current low inventory levels at major domestic ports are attributed to a decrease in the arrival of Canadian rapeseed, although year-on-year levels remain high [4] - The ongoing negotiations between China and Canada regarding tariffs on rapeseed may influence future market conditions, but the impact is considered limited [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term Decline**: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, the short - term trend is downward. Soybean meal is under short - term bearish pressure, but the continuous decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues. Rapeseed meal is affected by trade policies and high inventory, with its trend mainly following soybean meal [1]. - **Short - term Consolidation**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in short - term consolidation. Palm oil has a bullish fundamental outlook but is affected by the variable US biodiesel policy. Soybean oil is pressured by the US biodiesel policy and the approaching soybean harvest, with sufficient domestic supply [1]. - **Oscillating Bullish**: Rapeseed oil is expected to maintain a high - level and strong oscillating trend, supported by the Sino - Canadian trade dispute and double - festival demand, but its upward movement is restricted [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the supply side is pressured by the increasing volume of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries, the domestic market is in a tight pattern before new cotton is listed, and the USDA's downward adjustment of China's new - year stock - to - use ratio is bullish [1]. - **Cautiously Bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. Considering the current production forecast and carry - over inventory, there is pressure when new jujubes are listed. There may be large price fluctuations before November [1]. - **Cautiously Bullish**: For live hogs, the short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Varieties Soybean Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons from last week. The soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.82 million tons. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3041 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan from the previous day [2][3]. - **Analysis**: The USDA's September supply - demand report showed an increase in US soybean production and ending stocks, which was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The short - term trend of soybean meal is bearish, but the decline space is limited due to Sino - US trade issues [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.7 million tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons [6]. - **Analysis**: The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is low due to low imports, but the demand is weak. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation still has a long way to go, and the bullish impact is limited. The trend follows soybean meal [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market Conditions**: As of September 12, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22 million tons. Malaysia's August palm oil ending inventory increased by 4.18% month - on - month [9]. - **Analysis**: The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are bullish for the palm oil market, but the variable US biodiesel policy may suppress its performance. There are short - term long - buying opportunities on dips [1]. Cotton - **Market Conditions**: As of the reporting period, the domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The spinning mill's operating rate increased by 0.5% to 66.5%, and the weaving mill's operating rate increased by 0.6% to 38% [10][12]. - **Analysis**: The supply side of US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries is under pressure, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The domestic market is tight before new cotton is listed, and there is support at the bottom of the short - term disk [1]. Jujube - **Market Conditions**: The main contract CJ2601 decreased by 0.514% to 10815 yuan/ton. The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week [14][16]. - **Analysis**: The weather - related speculation window is shrinking, and the market's concern about quality issues is gradually easing. After new jujubes are listed, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. There are opportunities to sell short on rebounds [1]. Live Hogs - **Market Conditions**: The main contract Lh2511 decreased by 1.59% to 13000 yuan/ton, and the domestic live hog spot price increased by 0.23% to 13320 yuan/ton. The national sample - enterprise live hog inventory increased by 0.51% to 3782.4 million, and the出栏量 increased by 2.39% to 1117.72 million heads [17][18]. - **Analysis**: The short - term and near - month contracts are pressured, but the price may strengthen during the peak season. The far - month contracts are expected to rise over time, with strategies such as selling short on rebounds or 11 - 1 reverse spreads, and looking for long - buying opportunities for 07 and future 09 contracts [1].