1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment is expected to be supported by the alleviation of the US government shutdown concern, the easing of Sino - US trade tensions, and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut. The copper price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom due to the tight supply of refined copper. The expected operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 85,200 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and that of the LME copper 3M is 10,600 - 10,820 US dollars/ton [3]. - The aluminum price is expected to be supported by supply - side disturbances and may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The expected operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,500 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,880 US dollars/ton [6][7]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is strongly supported by cost and supply - side policy adjustments [10]. - The SHFE lead is expected to run strongly in the short term due to the low inventory and positive commodity sentiment [12]. - The SHFE zinc is expected to run strongly in the short term, but the upside space of the zinc price is relatively limited in the surplus cycle [14]. - The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 35,500 - 37,500 US dollars/ton [16]. - The nickel price may be dragged down by inventory pressure in the short term, but it may bottom out earlier in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and consider gradually building long positions if the price drops enough or the risk preference is high. The expected operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [17]. - The direct consumption of lithium carbonate is approaching the annual peak, and inventory depletion is accelerating. The market's expectation of postponed复产 may boost the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the ore price, the production schedule of lithium - ion materials in December, and the equity market atmosphere. The expected operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate 2601 contract is 79,000 - 82,700 yuan/ton [20]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term for alumina. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and it is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23]. - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weak in the short term, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the raw material price trend and the release rhythm of terminal demand [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The overnight US stocks fell, and the copper price oscillated and corrected. The LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.43% to 10,687 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 85,690 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 500 to 134,475 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory and bonded area inventory increased slightly, and SHFE warrants increased by 0.1 to 44,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the futures, and the spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 500 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 3,450 yuan/ton, slightly widening month - on - month [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - The sentiment is expected to be supported. The approval of copper exports by an Indonesian mining company has alleviated the tightness expectation of the ore end to some extent, but the tight pattern remains unchanged. The supply of refined copper is expected to be marginally tight, providing strong support for the copper price at the bottom. The expected operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 85,200 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and that of the LME copper 3M is 10,600 - 10,820 US dollars/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - Concerns about supply disturbances caused the aluminum price to rise and then fall. The LME aluminum fell slightly by 0.09% to 2,843 US dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,580 yuan/ton. The SHFE - LME spread narrowed. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract increased significantly by 64,000 to 714,000 lots, and the futures warrants decreased slightly to 64,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons, and aluminum rod social inventory increased by 0.25 tons. The processing fee of aluminum rods oscillated and increased, and market trading was average [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The production of electrolytic aluminum in October increased month - on - month both at home and abroad. The profit of domestic primary aluminum smelting further expanded, the processing fee of aluminum rods increased slightly, and the proportion of molten aluminum recovered. The export expectation of aluminum products is good. Against the background of eased trade tensions and low inventory, the supply - side disturbance expectation is expected to continue to support the aluminum price, and it may fluctuate strongly in the short term. The expected operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,500 - 21,700 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,880 US dollars/ton [6][7]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy strengthened. The main AD2512 contract rose 0.99% to 21,000 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 28,400 lots, and the trading volume was 6,600 lots. The warrants increased by 700 to 55,500 tons. The price difference between the AL2512 and AD2512 contracts widened. The average price of ADC12 in the domestic mainstream area remained flat, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The price of imported ADC12 remained flat, and trading was weak. The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the domestic mainstream market decreased by 700 to 72,800 tons, and the in - plant inventory of aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1,200 to 59,900 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides strong price support, and the supply is tight due to policy adjustments on the production side, so the price support is strong [10]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index closed down 0.26% to 17,438 yuan/ton on Thursday, and the total unilateral trading position was 122,500 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose 0.5 to 2,022 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 150,000 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,225 yuan/ton, and the average price of recycled refined lead was 17,175 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton. SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 21,900 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 125 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 208,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 106,700 tons. The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 32,100 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, the operating rate of primary smelters remains high, and the inventory of primary lead plants accumulates. The inventory of waste batteries rises slightly, and the weekly production of recycled lead ingots increases after the profit of recycled smelting recovers. The operating rate of downstream battery enterprises declines, and the de - stocking of domestic lead ingot total inventory slows down, but the absolute level is still low, and the deliverable products remain in short supply. The overall sentiment of commodities is still positive, and the long positions of SHFE lead are relatively concentrated. It is expected that SHFE lead will run strongly in the short term [12]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.10% to 22,691 yuan/ton on Thursday, and the total unilateral trading position was 225,700 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S fell 16 to 3,054.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position was 228,600 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22,500 yuan/ton. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 68,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 34,000 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 158,700 tons [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - The visible inventory of domestic zinc ore continues to decline, the processing fee of zinc concentrate falls again, the profit of domestic zinc smelting declines, and the monthly output of zinc ingots decreases. Downstream demand remains generally stable, and the total domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulates slowly. The previous main short positions of SHFE zinc reduced significantly, and some became net long positions. The registered warrants of LME zinc increased slightly, and the overseas structural risk was alleviated. The overall sentiment of commodities is still positive, and it is expected that SHFE zinc will run strongly in the short term, but the upside space of the zinc price is relatively limited in the surplus cycle [14]. Tin Market Information - On November 6, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 283,420 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the previous day. The registered warrants of SHFE futures decreased by 94 tons to 5,865 tons. The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 270,800 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous day. The operating rate of tin ingot smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces recovered and stabilized, but the overall operating level was still at a historical low due to the tight supply of tin ore raw materials. Although the mining license in the Wa State of Myanmar has been approved, the tin ore export volume is still far lower than the normal level. The consumption in traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate is weak, but the long - term demand expectation from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers supports the tin price. The operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery in October, and downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory on dips [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to go long on dips. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 270,000 - 295,000 yuan/ton, and that of the overseas LME tin is 35,500 - 37,500 US dollars/ton [16]. Nickel Market Information - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated narrowly at a low level. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract at 15:00 was 119,750 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premium of each brand remained stable. The average price of Russian nickel was at a premium of 400 yuan/ton to the nearby contract, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,600 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore was stable with a slight upward trend. The price of 1.6% Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.8 US dollars/wet ton, and the price of 1.2% Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 23 US dollars/wet ton. The price of 1.5% nickel ore from the Philippines was 58 US dollars/wet ton. The price of nickel iron remained stable temporarily [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, the nickel price may be dragged down by inventory pressure. If the inventory of refined nickel continues to increase, it will be difficult for the nickel price to rise significantly. In the medium - to - long term, the global fiscal and monetary easing cycle will support the nickel price, and the nickel price may bottom out earlier. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. If the nickel price drops enough (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, long positions can be gradually built. The expected operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 79,027 yuan, up 0.89% from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 700 yuan (+0.89%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.91%. The closing price of the LC2601 contract was 80,500 yuan, up 1

Core Viewpoint - A new round of fuel price adjustments is imminent, with expectations of a significant increase in oil prices due to a rebound in international crude oil prices after a previous decline [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - Recent increases in crude oil prices are attributed to multiple favorable factors, including expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and easing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have improved global economic and oil demand outlooks [3]. - OPEC+ has decided to postpone production increases in the first quarter of next year, demonstrating a commitment to maintaining market balance [3]. - Geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Venezuela, have injected a risk premium into the market, despite a temporary price drop following initial spikes [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - As of November 4, the average price of reference crude oil is $62.87 per barrel, with a change rate of 3.45%, indicating a potential domestic fuel price increase of 165 yuan per ton, translating to an expected rise of 0.13 to 0.15 yuan per liter for gasoline and diesel [6]. - Since July 1, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have not been adjusted for nearly four months, with a total of six increases, nine decreases, and six standoffs this year, leading to prices reaching a near four-year low [6]. - Current prices for 92 and 95 gasoline have decreased by approximately 1 yuan per liter from their peak earlier this year, with 92 gasoline now priced at 6.82 yuan per liter and 95 gasoline at 7.25 yuan per liter [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by the easing of US-China trade tensions and ongoing concerns regarding the US government shutdown, leading to a mixed outlook for gold as it stabilizes after a short-term decline [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant drop but found support due to fears of a prolonged US government shutdown, leading to a stabilization in the market [1] - The market's optimism regarding US-China trade negotiations has reduced the safe-haven demand for gold, while the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has further pressured gold prices [2][4] - The gold price fluctuated around key levels, with support at $3960 and $3980, and resistance at $4050 and $4030 [1][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from recent lows, alleviating some downward pressure, but remains in a range-bound adjustment phase [4] - Key technical indicators show mixed signals, with the MACD showing a slight slowdown in downward momentum, while the KDJ indicator is forming a bullish crossover [4] - The overall technical outlook suggests that while the bearish sentiment prevails, there is a demand for a rebound, indicating potential for future price adjustments [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week of June 13, 2025, the top - rising commodities were concentrated in energy products, while the top - falling ones were in non - ferrous metals and the building materials chain. The style rotation showed multiple configurations in Nanhua industrial products in the industrial products/agricultural products and precious metals/industrial products styles, and long on oil in the gold/oil ratio. The strength order of commodity sectors was estimated as energy > precious metals > chemicals > agricultural products > non - ferrous metals > ferrous metals [1][2]. - Overseas, at the beginning of the week, the market continued to price the easing of Sino - US trade relations, but the Middle - East geopolitical conflict flared up again. Domestically, the inflation and financial data in May were below expectations, with weak imports and strong exports [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Commodity Market Performance - As of June 13, 2025, the top - rising domestic commodities were INE crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., while the top - falling ones were soda ash, urea, zinc, etc. [6] 3.2 Sector Style Rotation - The 10 - year US Treasury yield, as a global interest - rate anchor, has a significant guiding effect on asset valuation and style rotation. For equity index styles, its real yield is consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the growth index to the cyclical index. For commodity sector index styles, it is also consistent with the long - term trend of the ratio of the Nanhua precious metals index to the Nanhua industrial products index [8][13]. - During the week, the cycle/growth style rotated to under - allocate growth; the industrial products/agricultural products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; the precious metals/industrial products style rotated to over - allocate Nanhua industrial products; and the gold/oil ratio rotated to over - allocate oil [2][13]. 3.3 Performance of Arbitrage Spread Pairs - The three arbitrage pairs with the relatively strongest performance during the week were the spread of the PP - 3*MA main contract, the spread of the L - PP main contract, and the spread of the rapeseed oil - palm oil main contract. The three with the relatively weakest performance were the copper - oil main contract ratio, the P/SC main contract ratio, and the Y/SC main contract ratio [2][14]. - Data on the latest values, weekly changes, one - year valuations, and two - year valuations of various arbitrage pairs are provided in the report [15].

Group 1: Shipping Industry Insights - The main futures contract of the container shipping index (European route) surged by 16%, closing at 1466.2 points, indicating a recovery in bullish sentiment due to easing US-China trade tensions [2][4] - Some airlines are attempting to maintain prices at $2900/TEU for June, although the feasibility of this price point remains uncertain [4] - The global container shipping capacity exceeds 32.22 million TEU, with a year-on-year growth rate declining to 8.7% [5] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - Hamas announced the release of the last surviving American hostage, Edan Alexander, as part of efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza, indicating a significant shift in the conflict dynamics [10] - The Houthis have agreed to cease attacks on US vessels in the Red Sea in exchange for the US halting military strikes, marking a pause in months of military confrontation [10] - The upcoming visit of US President Trump to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE is expected to address geopolitical issues, including the Iran nuclear talks and the ongoing conflict in Gaza [11]