1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others. It also presents fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities for each product [2]. - Market trends are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international political situations (e.g., the US - Iran nuclear negotiation), economic prospects, and industry policies. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market is in a unilateral oscillatory state. The month - spread remains strong. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on PX and short on PTA, and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread. The demand for PX is still tight due to the restart of several PTA devices. The PX - MX spread has expanded, and it is advisable to lock in the spread at high levels by shorting PX and going long on SC [5][7][9]. - **PTA**: With the planned maintenance of filament plants, the unilateral trend weakens. It is recommended to hold the position of shorting PTA processing fees, and the mid - term strategy for the month - spread is to go long at low levels. The short - term unilateral price may pull back [5][9]. - **MEG**: Similar to PTA, the planned maintenance of filament plants leads to a weakening of the unilateral trend, and the short - term price may pull back [5][8][10]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis and some price spreads have changed. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the domestic butadiene market is slightly weak [12][13][14]. c. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals provide some support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has dropped significantly [16][19]. d. Asphalt - The asphalt market is in a high - level oscillation state. The production has decreased this week, and both the factory and social inventories have decreased. The BU - SC spread has stabilized after expansion, and the basis in Shandong has strengthened and then partially converged [20][21][35]. e. LLDPE - LLDPE is in a mid - term oscillatory state. The macro situation is favorable, and short - term plastic product exports support the market. However, the supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high. The demand is weak, and the future trend still faces pressure. Attention should be paid to the spread change between HDPE and LLDPE [36][37]. f. PP - The price of PP has slightly declined, and the trading volume is average. The futures market has weakened, affecting the spot market atmosphere. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [40][41]. g. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The price of alumina has risen, driving the caustic soda futures to be strong. However, there is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals. The downstream inventory - building situation determines the rebound sustainability. The supply is sufficient, and the export can provide support, but the possibility of foreign merchants' continuous high - level inventory - building in the off - season is low [43][44][45]. h. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis has decreased. The spot market is weak and stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [46][47][48]. i. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has small fluctuations, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious change [50]. j. Methanol - Methanol is under oscillatory pressure. The spot price has declined, and the port inventory has decreased last week. The mid - term trend is weak, and the pressure of imports from Iran after June is large. The MTO operating rate is high, and the inland spot is relatively strong, but the rebound space is limited due to weak coal prices [53][56][57]. k. Urea - Urea is in a high - level oscillatory state. The futures market will have a long - short game. The downward trend is supported by the improving macro - sentiment and the release of fertilizer demand in some regions. The upward space is restricted by policies. The factory price is expected to be firm, while the market price may adjust downward [58][60][61]. l. Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The weakness of pure benzene continues, and the current valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term accumulation of visible inventory takes time. The downstream production and sales have fluctuated, and attention should be paid to new orders and the replenishment intensity of 3S factories [62][63]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined, the supply is adjusted at a low level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The market is expected to be stable in the short term [64][66]. n. LPG - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have declined [69][75][76]. o. PVC - PVC is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The macro situation is favorable, but the fundamentals show high production and high inventory. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the high - inventory pressure persists. The export can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the domestic demand is weak [79][80]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is oscillating and rebounding with a narrow price adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market has slightly rebounded [83].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the energy - chemical industry have diverse trends. Some are in an upward trend, some are in a downward trend, and others are in a volatile state. For example, PX, PTA, and MEG are relatively strong, while rubber and PVC are under pressure in the later stage [4][13][68]. - The macro - environment, such as the Sino - US phased reconciliation, has a certain impact on the market sentiment, but the fundamentals of supply and demand still play a decisive role in the long - term trend of each commodity [22][69]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level volatile market with a strong upward trend. The supply is tightened due to the unexpected load reduction of some refineries, and the demand remains strong. It is recommended to hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread [9]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is still strong, and the position for compressing PTA processing fees should be held. The monthly spread is still a good opportunity to go long at low levels. The supply and demand are both increasing, but it is still in a de - stocking pattern [10]. - **MEG**: Before delivery, the spot supply and demand are strong, and the unilateral price still has upward space. The unexpected shutdown and maintenance of some plants have intensified the tight balance of supply and demand [11]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is in a volatile and weakening state. The semi - steel tire industry has high inventory, low capacity utilization rate, and weak demand, which drags down the rubber market [13][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - The upward space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals have support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. It is expected to show a volatile and supported pattern [18][21]. 3.4 LLDPE - In a medium - term volatile market. The Sino - US phased reconciliation has a positive impact on sentiment, but the supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The trend still has pressure, but attention should be paid to the change in the spread between HDPE and linear [22][23]. 3.5 PP - The price has a small decline, and the trading volume is average. The PP futures' decline drags down the spot market atmosphere, and the downstream's acceptance of high - price resources is low [26][27]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - In a short - term volatile state, and there is still pressure in the later stage. Although the alumina price increase has a certain driving effect, the caustic soda lacks a continuous upward driver. The downstream's inventory - building sustainability determines the rebound's sustainability [29][30]. 3.7 Pulp - In a volatile and strengthening state. Although the market trading is light and the supply is loose, the price shows a certain upward trend [33][35]. 3.8 Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The domestic float glass market is mainly stable, with some areas showing a slight decline, and the market trading is average [37]. 3.9 Methanol - In a volatile and pressured state. The domestic methanol market rose last week, but the downstream's resistance to high prices and the possible increase in coastal market supply have put pressure on the price. The medium - term trend is still weak [40][43]. 3.10 Urea - In a high - level volatile state. The export policy has a certain impact on the market, and the futures market shows a pattern of long - short game. The demand in some regions is being released, but the price is also restricted by policies [45][48]. 3.11 Styrene - In a short - term volatile state. The weakness of pure benzene has not ended, and the valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term inventory accumulation needs time, and attention should be paid to the new orders of the terminal and the restocking of 3S factories [49][50]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The soda ash device is generally stable, the supply is expected to remain low, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to run stably in the short term [51][53]. 3.13 LPG - The cost fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The relevant data of LPG futures and the industrial chain show some changes, and attention should be paid to the device maintenance and market information [57][65]. 3.14 PVC - In a short - term volatile state, and there is still pressure in the later stage. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the export demand can only relieve the pressure temporarily [68][69]. 3.15 Fuel Oil - The fuel oil is stable in the short - term with a narrow - range volatile trend, while the low - sulfur fuel oil continues to decline, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market narrows slightly [72][73]. 3.16 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - In a high - level volatile state, and the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads should be held. The futures prices of different contracts show different trends, and the freight rate index also has fluctuations [75].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Strongly Bullish: PX, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][15][92] - Bullish: PTA, LLDPE, PP, Paper Pulp, Short Fibre, Bottle Chip [2][9][38][42][50] - Neutral: Rubber, Caustic Soda, Glass, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, LPG, Fuel Oil, PVC, Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][10][45][56][65][69][72][76][87][92][94] - Bullish with Oscillation: Asphalt [2][19] - Bearish in the Long Run: PVC, Caustic Soda [45][87] Core Views - The report provides investment ratings and trend analyses for various energy and chemical commodities, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and industry news [2]. - For most commodities, the short - term trends are influenced by factors like macro - economic sentiment, supply disruptions, and demand fluctuations, while long - term trends are determined by factors such as production capacity expansion and seasonal demand patterns [38][45][87]. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral strength, with Asian PX index rising. The tight balance between PX and PTA, along with high polyester industry operating rates, supports PX prices [7][9]. - **PTA**: The market is strong, with futures rising. PTA开工率 is slowing, and the high operating rate of the polyester industry contributes to the market's strength [7]. - **MEG**: Supply is contracting due to device maintenance, supporting prices [8][9]. Rubber - The market shows wide - range oscillations. Although the cost support is strong, the downstream buying sentiment is low, and the market has a strong bullish sentiment [10][14]. Synthetic Rubber - It is expected to run strongly, driven by factors such as the overall repair of macro - sentiment, the strength of the rubber and crude oil sectors, and the active short - term trading of butadiene [15][18]. Asphalt - It shows a strong oscillation due to the rebound of crude oil. The industry's capacity utilization rate has increased, and the inventory rate has slightly risen [19][37]. LLDPE - It is short - term strong and medium - term oscillatory. The short - term strength is supported by plastic product exports, but the long - term pressure comes from high supply and weak demand [38][39]. PP - The price has a small increase, but the trading volume has weakened. The market is influenced by macro - news and oil prices, but downstream demand is cautious [42][43]. Caustic Soda - It is short - term oscillatory and faces long - term pressure. Short - term downstream replenishment supports prices, but high production and weak demand in the second quarter may lead to profit compression [45][46]. Paper Pulp - It is expected to oscillate strongly. The futures price has rebounded, but the spot market lacks demand support, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price has a small rebound, but the downstream is still in a wait - and - see state, and the sustainability of production and sales needs to be followed up [55][56]. Methanol - It oscillates with support due to the improvement of macro - sentiment. The spot price has a small increase, and the port inventory has decreased [60][62]. Urea - It is expected to oscillate. The enterprise inventory has decreased significantly, and the futures market shows a multi - empty game pattern, with policy control limiting the price range [66][67]. Styrene - It is short - term oscillatory. The market is stronger than expected, driven by factors such as the release of downstream demand, port inventory issues, and device maintenance [69][70]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change, with stable supply and demand, and is expected to run stably in the short term [72][74]. LPG - The cost support is weakening due to the easing of geopolitical conflicts. The futures price shows fluctuations, and the industry's operating rates have changed slightly [76]. PVC - It is short - term strong and long - term pressured. The short - term strength is supported by macro - expectations and export demand, but the long - term high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change [87][88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows an oscillatory trend and may be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be strong, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has rebounded significantly [92]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is short - term strong, and investors are advised to hold 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PVC shows a relatively strong trend, but there will still be pressure in the later stage. Macro - level factors like the Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush are positive, but from a fundamental perspective, the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease, and high - price transactions are slowing down with a significantly weakened basis [1]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The high - production situation persists due to strong demand and high profits in the caustic soda market in 2025, the “subsidizing chlorine with alkali” model in the chlor - alkali industry, and upcoming new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can reduce inventory quickly in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand related to real - estate downstream PVC products is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents PVC Fundamental Data - The 09 - contract futures price is 4986, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 206, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 98 [1]. Spot Market - Domestic PVC spot prices have been raised. Positive macro - expectations and the rise of industrial products have boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the futures price. However, demand is cautious, high - price transactions have slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode in the short term. The market supply remains high, and the impact of policies on demand is yet to be observed. In the East China region, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4880 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4900 - 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Situation Analysis - **Macro - level**: The Sino - US phased reconciliation is positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [1]. - **Fundamental level**: Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. High - price transactions are slowing down, and the basis has weakened significantly [1]. High - Production Pattern - In the first quarter of 2025, the maintenance volume of PVC was low, and the high - production pattern continued. The strong demand for caustic soda in 2025 supports high profits, and the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali to subsidize chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. Moreover, there will be more new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. High - Inventory Pressure - In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce inventory in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2][3]