1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers trading strategies and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others. It also presents fundamental data, market news, and trend intensities for each product [2]. - Market trends are influenced by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international political situations (e.g., the US - Iran nuclear negotiation), economic prospects, and industry policies. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The market is in a unilateral oscillatory state. The month - spread remains strong. It is recommended to hold the position of going long on PX and short on PTA, and pay attention to the regression of the PX - MX spread. The demand for PX is still tight due to the restart of several PTA devices. The PX - MX spread has expanded, and it is advisable to lock in the spread at high levels by shorting PX and going long on SC [5][7][9]. - **PTA**: With the planned maintenance of filament plants, the unilateral trend weakens. It is recommended to hold the position of shorting PTA processing fees, and the mid - term strategy for the month - spread is to go long at low levels. The short - term unilateral price may pull back [5][9]. - **MEG**: Similar to PTA, the planned maintenance of filament plants leads to a weakening of the unilateral trend, and the short - term price may pull back [5][8][10]. b. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis and some price spreads have changed. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the domestic butadiene market is slightly weak [12][13][14]. c. Synthetic Rubber - The upside space of synthetic rubber is narrowing. Although the fundamentals provide some support, the price is suppressed by the overall rubber sector. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber has decreased, and the butadiene port inventory has dropped significantly [16][19]. d. Asphalt - The asphalt market is in a high - level oscillation state. The production has decreased this week, and both the factory and social inventories have decreased. The BU - SC spread has stabilized after expansion, and the basis in Shandong has strengthened and then partially converged [20][21][35]. e. LLDPE - LLDPE is in a mid - term oscillatory state. The macro situation is favorable, and short - term plastic product exports support the market. However, the supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high. The demand is weak, and the future trend still faces pressure. Attention should be paid to the spread change between HDPE and LLDPE [36][37]. f. PP - The price of PP has slightly declined, and the trading volume is average. The futures market has weakened, affecting the spot market atmosphere. Downstream factories are cautious in purchasing [40][41]. g. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The price of alumina has risen, driving the caustic soda futures to be strong. However, there is a lack of continuous upward drivers in the fundamentals. The downstream inventory - building situation determines the rebound sustainability. The supply is sufficient, and the export can provide support, but the possibility of foreign merchants' continuous high - level inventory - building in the off - season is low [43][44][45]. h. Pulp - The pulp market is expected to oscillate. The trading volume and open interest have increased, and the basis has decreased. The spot market is weak and stable, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [46][47][48]. i. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The spot price has small fluctuations, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has no obvious change [50]. j. Methanol - Methanol is under oscillatory pressure. The spot price has declined, and the port inventory has decreased last week. The mid - term trend is weak, and the pressure of imports from Iran after June is large. The MTO operating rate is high, and the inland spot is relatively strong, but the rebound space is limited due to weak coal prices [53][56][57]. k. Urea - Urea is in a high - level oscillatory state. The futures market will have a long - short game. The downward trend is supported by the improving macro - sentiment and the release of fertilizer demand in some regions. The upward space is restricted by policies. The factory price is expected to be firm, while the market price may adjust downward [58][60][61]. l. Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The weakness of pure benzene continues, and the current valuation of styrene is relatively high. The short - term accumulation of visible inventory takes time. The downstream production and sales have fluctuated, and attention should be paid to new orders and the replenishment intensity of 3S factories [62][63]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price has declined, the supply is adjusted at a low level, and the downstream demand is tepid. The market is expected to be stable in the short term [64][66]. n. LPG - The cost of LPG fluctuates widely, and the civil gas is under short - term pressure. The futures prices of different contracts have changed, and the spreads have decreased. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation have declined [69][75][76]. o. PVC - PVC is in a short - term oscillatory state and will face pressure later. The macro situation is favorable, but the fundamentals show high production and high inventory. The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the high - inventory pressure persists. The export can only relieve the pressure temporarily, and the domestic demand is weak [79][80]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is oscillating and rebounding with a narrow price adjustment. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weak, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in the overseas market has slightly rebounded [83].

2025年05月19日 期货研究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：上方空间收窄 | 7 | | LLDPE：中期震荡市 | 9 | | PP：价格小跌，成交一般 | 11 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 12 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：震荡承压 | 17 | | 尿素：高位震荡 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本宽幅震荡，民用气短期承压 | 23 | | PVC：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油：短线持稳，窄幅震荡走势 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油：继续下跌，外盘高低硫价差小幅收敛 | 28 | | 集运指数（欧线）：高位震荡，6-8反套、10-12反套持有 | 29 | | 短纤：短期震荡 | 32 | | 瓶片：短期震荡 | 32 | | 胶版印刷 ...

2025年05月15日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：多PX空PTA | 2 | | MEG：单边仍偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡 | 4 | | 合成橡胶：偏强运行 | 6 | | 沥青：原油反弹，偏强震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 10 | | PP：价格小涨，成交变弱 | 12 | | 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强 | 15 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇：宏观情绪好转，震荡有支撑 | 18 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 22 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG：地缘冲突缓和，成本支撑走弱 | 24 | | PVC：短期偏强，后期仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，短期或弱于低硫 | 29 | | 低硫燃料油：强势延续，外盘高低硫价差大幅反弹 | 29 | | 集运指数（欧线）：短期偏强，6-8反套、10-12反套持有 | 30 | | 短纤：预期好转震荡偏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, PVC shows a relatively strong trend, but there will still be pressure in the later stage. Macro - level factors like the Sino - US phased reconciliation and short - term terminal product export rush are positive, but from a fundamental perspective, the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease, and high - price transactions are slowing down with a significantly weakened basis [1]. - The high - production pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The high - production situation persists due to strong demand and high profits in the caustic soda market in 2025, the “subsidizing chlorine with alkali” model in the chlor - alkali industry, and upcoming new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. - High - inventory pressure persists, and export demand can only relieve it temporarily. In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition, affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can reduce inventory quickly in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand related to real - estate downstream PVC products is still weak, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Summary by Relevant Contents PVC Fundamental Data - The 09 - contract futures price is 4986, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 206, and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 98 [1]. Spot Market - Domestic PVC spot prices have been raised. Positive macro - expectations and the rise of industrial products have boosted the market atmosphere, leading to a slight increase in the futures price. However, demand is cautious, high - price transactions have slowed down, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode in the short term. The market supply remains high, and the impact of policies on demand is yet to be observed. In the East China region, the ex - warehouse spot price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC is 4700 - 4880 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4900 - 5200 yuan/ton [1]. Market Situation Analysis - **Macro - level**: The Sino - US phased reconciliation is positive, and short - term terminal product export rush supports the market [1]. - **Fundamental level**: Northwest chlor - alkali integration still has profits, and the structure of high production and high inventory of PVC is difficult to ease. High - price transactions are slowing down, and the basis has weakened significantly [1]. High - Production Pattern - In the first quarter of 2025, the maintenance volume of PVC was low, and the high - production pattern continued. The strong demand for caustic soda in 2025 supports high profits, and the chlor - alkali industry uses alkali to subsidize chlorine, increasing the difficulty of large - scale production cuts due to PVC losses. Moreover, there will be more new capacity investments, especially in June [2]. High - Inventory Pressure - In 2025, the PVC export market faces increased competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification. Although overseas restocking can quickly reduce inventory in the short term, the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestically, the demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak year - on - year, and enterprises have low inventory - stocking willingness [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [2][3]