Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the critical price level of $4000 per ounce, with concerns about a potential bubble risk due to irrational price increases, while long-term support is provided by the trend of "de-dollarization" and central bank gold purchases [2][3] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - As of November 7, paper gold is trading around 914.21 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.32%, reaching a high of 916.14 yuan and a low of 907.62 yuan [1] - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic despite a recent price correction from the historical high of $4360 per ounce reached in early October [2] Group 2: Expert Opinions - Jim O'Neill, a prominent economist, warns that the recent surge in gold prices exhibits bubble characteristics, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), which could lead to price spikes from minor news [2] - O'Neill acknowledges both bullish and bearish arguments for gold, suggesting that the current economic environment does not fully align with gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge [3] Group 3: Long-term Trends - The long-term trajectory of gold prices will depend on the interaction between inflation and interest rate expectations, with potential for strong performance if central banks continue to ease monetary policy amid high inflation [3] - The trend of "de-dollarization" and increased gold holdings by countries like China and Russia is reinforcing gold's status as a global reserve currency [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from historical financial crises, particularly the Asian financial crisis, to establish effective early warning systems for monitoring global economic risks [2] Group 1: Economic Risks - The former president of the Asian Development Bank highlights the need to monitor bubble risks, particularly in real estate and stock prices, which may rise too quickly in Asian countries [2] - There is a warning about three specific risks currently facing financial markets: high government debt accumulation, potential overvaluation of stock prices due to expectations from the AI revolution, and excessive private debt with inadequate regulation of non-bank institutions [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The increase in lead inventories restricts the rebound of lead prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 17,115 yuan/ton, up 1.03%, and the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 2,004.5 dollars/ton, down 0.02% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 40,199 lots, a decrease of 5,406 lots, and the open interest was 41,077 lots, a decrease of 1,556 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 3,716 lots, a decrease of 1,421 lots, and the open interest was 147,617 lots, a decrease of 1,130 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium was -35 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 30,068 tons, an increase of 500 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 237,450 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 49,025 tons, a decrease of 600 tons [1]. - **Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -473.87 yuan/ton, an increase of 59.49 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third - month contract was -466.17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47.04 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -143 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. News - US macro - economic data remained in a vacuum, investors were worried about the bubble risk, and the demand for profit - taking increased [1]. - Fed Governor Barr said that the Fed should be cautious when further adjusting its policy stance because the price increase rate is still too fast [1]. Lead Trend Intensity The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [1].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has been reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting new records, while the Shanghai Composite Index also surpassed 3600 points, marking its annual peak [1] - Major international investment banks have issued warnings regarding the increasing risks in the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs noting that speculative sentiment indicators have surged to historical highs, second only to the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that margin debt has reached a historic high, exceeding $1 trillion in June, indicating a heated borrowing environment for stock trading [1] Group 2 - Bank of America analyst Hartnett reiterated the risks of a bubble, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, stating that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility, thus amplifying bubble risks [1] - The potential for the U.S. bull market to continue may hinge on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with recent pressures from former President Trump on the Fed to lower rates [1] - Goldman Sachs economists have revised their predictions, suggesting a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut in September, which could significantly influence global market trends [2] Group 3 - Political changes in Japan, particularly the recent electoral defeat of the ruling coalition, have led to a decline in support for Prime Minister Kishida, impacting the yen and Japanese stock market [3] - The internal accountability calls within the ruling party continue to grow, with potential leadership changes expected following the upcoming extraordinary Diet session [4]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Optimistic sentiment drives technical indicators into overbought territory, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, the passage of the tax reform bill in the House, and stronger-than-expected employment data [1] - US stock funds saw the highest net inflow since November last year, with a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, following six consecutive weeks of outflows [5] - The S&P 500 index may trigger a "sell signal" if it breaks through 6,300 points in July, indicating potential bubble risks as the market is currently overbought [6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The US added 147,000 non-farm jobs last month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Job openings in May reached 7.769 million, surpassing the expected 7.3 million, indicating a healthy labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.9% to 2.6%, although still above the long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has diminished, with traders assigning a 68% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, down from 74% a week prior [4] - The latest employment data complicates the case for a quick dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, as rising effective tariff rates and stable job markets may delay rate cuts until Q4 or even December [5] - The market's resilience amid stable employment data has offset the negative impact of reduced rate cut expectations [5]

Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is once again overshadowing the financial markets [1] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations set by the U.S. approaches, global market tensions have increased, leading to declines in European and U.S. stock futures [2][5] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on its automotive exports [3] Group 2 - U.S. Bank strategist Michael Hartnett suggests it may be time to sell stocks after the S&P 500 index reached a historical high following three months of gains [4][9] - Hartnett warns of rising bubble risks during the summer as the "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, indicating potential market corrections [10][11] - The report highlights significant capital outflows from U.S. growth stocks and mid-cap stocks, with $5 billion and $5.7 billion withdrawn respectively, marking the largest outflows since March 2023 [12][13] Group 3 - The June employment report may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the summer, delaying potential interest rate cuts [14] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is over a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July, with a 70% chance of a rate cut in September [15]