2025 年 10 月 10 日 铅：库存增加，限制价格回升 美联储理事巴尔表示，美联储在进一步调整政策立场时应当保持谨慎，因为物价上涨速度仍然过快。（华 尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17115 | 1.03% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2004.5 | -0.02% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 40199 | -5406 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 3716 | -1421 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 41077 | -1556 | 伦铅持 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has been reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting new records, while the Shanghai Composite Index also surpassed 3600 points, marking its annual peak [1] - Major international investment banks have issued warnings regarding the increasing risks in the U.S. stock market, with Goldman Sachs noting that speculative sentiment indicators have surged to historical highs, second only to the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 retail trading frenzy [1] - Deutsche Bank highlighted that margin debt has reached a historic high, exceeding $1 trillion in June, indicating a heated borrowing environment for stock trading [1] Group 2 - Bank of America analyst Hartnett reiterated the risks of a bubble, attributing it to loose monetary policies and relaxed financial regulations, stating that increased retail participation leads to greater liquidity and volatility, thus amplifying bubble risks [1] - The potential for the U.S. bull market to continue may hinge on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with recent pressures from former President Trump on the Fed to lower rates [1] - Goldman Sachs economists have revised their predictions, suggesting a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut in September, which could significantly influence global market trends [2] Group 3 - Political changes in Japan, particularly the recent electoral defeat of the ruling coalition, have led to a decline in support for Prime Minister Kishida, impacting the yen and Japanese stock market [3] - The internal accountability calls within the ruling party continue to grow, with potential leadership changes expected following the upcoming extraordinary Diet session [4]

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Performance - Optimistic sentiment drives technical indicators into overbought territory, supported by a trade agreement between the US and Vietnam, the passage of the tax reform bill in the House, and stronger-than-expected employment data [1] - US stock funds saw the highest net inflow since November last year, with a net inflow of $31.6 billion last week, following six consecutive weeks of outflows [5] - The S&P 500 index may trigger a "sell signal" if it breaks through 6,300 points in July, indicating potential bubble risks as the market is currently overbought [6] Group 2: Employment Data and Economic Indicators - The US added 147,000 non-farm jobs last month, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 106,000, while the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [3] - Job openings in May reached 7.769 million, surpassing the expected 7.3 million, indicating a healthy labor market despite a slowdown in hiring [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q2 GDP growth was revised down from 2.9% to 2.6%, although still above the long-term trend growth rate of 1.8% [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in July has diminished, with traders assigning a 68% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, down from 74% a week prior [4] - The latest employment data complicates the case for a quick dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, as rising effective tariff rates and stable job markets may delay rate cuts until Q4 or even December [5] - The market's resilience amid stable employment data has offset the negative impact of reduced rate cut expectations [5]

Group 1 - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs is once again overshadowing the financial markets [1] - As the deadline for tariff negotiations set by the U.S. approaches, global market tensions have increased, leading to declines in European and U.S. stock futures [2][5] - India plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. due to the impact of U.S. tariffs on its automotive exports [3] Group 2 - U.S. Bank strategist Michael Hartnett suggests it may be time to sell stocks after the S&P 500 index reached a historical high following three months of gains [4][9] - Hartnett warns of rising bubble risks during the summer as the "Big and Beautiful" bill has been passed, indicating potential market corrections [10][11] - The report highlights significant capital outflows from U.S. growth stocks and mid-cap stocks, with $5 billion and $5.7 billion withdrawn respectively, marking the largest outflows since March 2023 [12][13] Group 3 - The June employment report may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see approach throughout the summer, delaying potential interest rate cuts [14] - According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is over a 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in July, with a 70% chance of a rate cut in September [15]