1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was strong, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating upwards. In the medium - to - long - term, the steel price trend remains unchanged under the loosening macro - environment, but in the short - term, the weak real demand for steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. - For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do long rather than short. The market may first decline and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation [11]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and it may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers after the macro - risk is digested [15]. - The price of polysilicon rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on whether the policy can be implemented, and attention should be paid to risk control [17]. - The glass market lacks positive support and the sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3049 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.494%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai were 3120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) and 3190 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3219 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.217%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai were 3230 yuan/ton and 3280 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a small inventory reduction, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand increased, but inventory was still high, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar continued to narrow [2]. - Trump's new tariff remarks affected market sentiment, but the medium - to - long - term steel price trend remained unchanged. In the short - term, the weak demand pattern was difficult to improve, and attention should be paid to policies around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 773.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.39% (- 3.00). The position increased by 27213 hands to 53.56 million hands. The weighted position was 88.95 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 777 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.23 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.32% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output decreased, some blast furnaces were shut down for maintenance, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The terminal inventory pressure was high, and the iron ore price was under pressure. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the support level of 760 - 765 yuan/ton [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 16, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed at 5754 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a basis of 116 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed at 5456 yuan/ton, up 1.94%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton [7][10]. Strategy Viewpoints - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's market. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to manganese ore disturbances. Ferrosilicon's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the market, with low operation cost - effectiveness [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8605 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The weighted position decreased by 463 hands to 429946 hands. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China were 9300 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton (both unchanged) respectively, with bases of 695 yuan/ton and 295 yuan/ton [14]. - The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52575 yuan/ton, up 3.36%. The weighted position increased by 13651 hands to 278578 hands. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were 50.5 yuan/kg, 51.25 yuan/kg, and 52.75 yuan/kg (all unchanged) respectively, with a basis of 175 yuan/ton [16]. Strategy Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to factors such as reduced supply in the dry season in the southwest, cost support, and relative undervaluation. It may rise again if there are supply - side disturbances or policy drivers [15]. - The polysilicon price rebounds under policy expectations, but the high price's sustainability depends on policy implementation. Attention should be paid to risk control [17]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton, up 1.59%. The spot prices in North China and Central China were 1210 yuan (down 10 yuan) and 1200 yuan (unchanged) respectively. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 6427.56 million boxes, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 24971 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 37494 hands [19]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The spot price in Shahe was 1165 yuan, up 3 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 170.05 million tons, up 2.31%. The top 20 long - position holders increased 14282 hands, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 7241 hands [21]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass market has an expected increase in supply and a decrease in production cost, but the terminal demand is less than expected, and the market sentiment is cautiously bearish [20]. - The soda ash market has stable supply, weak demand, and light trading, and is expected to remain weakly operating in the short - term [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. Although the direct impact of the new tariff policy on steel is limited, steel prices may still be under pressure. In the short term, the pattern of weak real - demand for steel is difficult to reverse, and attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session [2]. - For iron ore, the short - term iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly due to weak terminal demand and continuous macro - disturbances. The price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday [5]. - For the black sector, the report is not pessimistic. It is believed that the macro - level factors will be the focus of medium - and long - term trading. Looking for callback positions to do long may have higher cost - effectiveness, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [8]. - For industrial silicon, in the short term, the price oscillates mainly. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - For polysilicon, the current short - term price fluctuations are regarded as technical corrections in the structural adjustment process. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3034 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton (- 0.88%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 3787 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 60083 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3212 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.89%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 39913 tons, and the main contract positions increased by 17676 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices decreased by 30 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Views - The new tariff remarks by Trump disturbed the market sentiment again, causing a short - term impact on commodity prices. In the context of the gradually loosening macro - environment, the overall trend remains unchanged. The weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to reverse in the short term [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 776.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.70% (- 5.50), and the positions increased by 8566 lots to 50.84 million lots. The weighted positions were 84.91 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.71% [4]. Strategy Views - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. In terms of demand, the average daily molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. The iron ore price may adjust if the finished steel situation weakens after the holiday. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon Market Information - The manganese silicon main contract (SM601) rose 0.14% to close at 5746 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 144 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) rose 0.56% to close at 5352 yuan/ton. The Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot price was 5600 yuan/ton, with a premium of 248 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Views - For the black sector, the price may first decline to release the bearish sentiment and then rise with the "Fourth Plenary Session" expectation. The report is not pessimistic about the black sector's future [8]. - Manganese silicon's fundamentals are not ideal, and it may follow the black sector's trend. If the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances from the manganese ore end [9]. - Silicon iron's supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and it is also likely to follow the black sector's trend, with low operation cost - effectiveness [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - The main contract (SI2511) of industrial silicon closed at 8570 yuan/ton, up 0.59% (+ 50). The weighted contract positions decreased by 12310 lots to 430409 lots. The spot prices of East China's 553 and 421 remained unchanged, with basis of 730 yuan/ton and 330 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - The main contract (PS2511) of polysilicon closed at 50865 yuan/ton, up 1.75% (+ 875). The weighted contract positions increased by 11148 lots to 264927 lots. The spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material remained unchanged, with a basis of 1885 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Views - The industrial silicon price oscillates mainly in the short term. In the long term, with the reduction of supply pressure and the enhancement of cost support, the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase [12][13]. - The polysilicon price is in a fundamental correction stage. The price has a support level at 47000 - 48000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the news disturbances from industry meetings [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1129 yuan/ton, down 0.79% (- 9). The North China and Central China spot prices were 1220 yuan and 1200 yuan respectively, with the latter decreasing by 20 yuan. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises increased by 346.9 million boxes (+ 5.84%). The top 20 long - position holders increased 28850 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 38002 lots [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1232 yuan/ton, down 0.16% (- 2). The Shahe heavy - soda price decreased by 2 yuan to 1162 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises increased by 5.99 million tons (+ 5.84%), with the heavy - soda and light - soda inventories increasing by 1.75 million tons and 4.24 million tons respectively. The top 20 long - position holders increased 471 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 4899 lots [19]. Strategy Views - For glass, the market supply is expected to increase, the cost has decreased, and the terminal demand is lower than expected, resulting in a cautious and bearish market sentiment [18]. - For soda ash, the supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to maintain a weak operation in the short term [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate in October. If there are supply - side disturbances or policy drives, the price may continue to rise. In the long - term, as the southwest region enters the dry season, production cuts will reduce supply pressure, and the far - month contract valuation is expected to increase. The price has room for repair compared to downstream polysilicon, and the "anti - involution" policy still has potential to improve prices [15]. - For polysilicon, the market may enter a fundamental correction phase before the actual implementation of policies or the emergence of new catalytic variables. The short - term price is constrained by high inventory and weak demand. However, after November, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the short - term price fluctuation is regarded as a technical correction. The estimated lower support level for silicon material prices is 48,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of policies [17]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Points Summary** - Polysilicon: In September (SMM), the output was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons; the cumulative output from January to September was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 333,000 tons. In September (百川盈孚), the DMC output was 208,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,800 tons. The cumulative DMC output from January to September was 1,861,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89%. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12,324,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,163,000 tons or 21.29%. From January to August, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54%. At the end of September, the industrial silicon inventory (百川盈孚) was 695,700 tons, remaining at a high level [13]. - Industrial Silicon: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan. In September 2025, the industrial silicon output (百川盈孚) was 384,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,600 tons, and the cumulative output from January to September was 2,934,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 596,500 tons or 16.89% [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - **Industrial Silicon**: The basis is positive, the cost is basically stable, the output continues to grow, the demand has marginal improvement, and the inventory remains high. In the future, the supply - demand situation has no immediate concerns. The polysilicon production schedule in October will increase slightly, and the supply pressure will decrease in the dry season in the southwest region, with cost support strengthening [15]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract is at a discount, the output is stable month - on - month, the cost is 41,543.0 yuan/ton with a relatively good profit, the demand is weakening, and the factory inventory is flat. The market may enter a correction phase, and the supply - demand pattern may improve after November [17]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: As of September 30, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 350 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,900 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton [22]. - **Polysilicon**: As of September 30, 2025, the average price of SMM - statistical N - type polysilicon re -投料 was 52.55 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.55 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 3.05 yuan/kg [25]. 3. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output**: In September 2025, the industrial silicon output (百川盈孚) was 384,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,600 tons, and the cumulative output from January to September was 2,934,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 596,500 tons or 16.89% [30]. - **Output in Main Production Areas**: The report provides historical output data of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, but no specific latest production data for each region are mentioned other than the overall data [32][34]. - **Production Cost**: As of September 30, 2025, the electricity price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month, and the silicon stone price was stable. The silicon coal price in the main production areas remained flat month - on - month. The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,404.17 yuan/ton, 9,387.50 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 9,095.24 yuan/ton in Sichuan [43][46]. - **Visible Inventory**: At the end of September, the industrial silicon inventory (百川盈孚) was 695,700 tons, remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 260,000 tons, the market inventory was 185,000 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 250,700 tons [49]. 4. Polysilicon - **Output**: In September (SMM), the polysilicon output was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons; the cumulative output from January to September was 941,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 333,000 tons [54]. - **Operating Rate and Production Schedule**: In September (百川盈孚), the polysilicon operating rate was 49.43%, a month - on - month increase of 3.65 percentage points. SMM predicts that the polysilicon output in October will be 134,500 tons, a month - on - month increase [57]. - **Inventory**: At the end of September, the polysilicon inventory (百川盈孚) was 240,900 tons; the SMM - statistical inventory was 226,000 tons, and the factory inventory was flat [60]. - **Cost and Profit**: At the end of September, the polysilicon production cost (百川盈孚) was 41,543.0 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 9,057 yuan/ton, with a relatively good profit [63]. - **Silicon Wafer**: In September (SMM), the silicon wafer output was 59.05GW, a month - on - month increase of 3.01GW, and the cumulative output from January to September was 488.17GW, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. At the end of September, the silicon wafer inventory (SMM) was 16.23GW, a slight month - on - month decrease. The predicted output in October is 55.68GW, a month - on - month decrease [66][69]. - **Battery Chip**: In September (SMM), the battery chip output was 60.97GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.7GW, and the cumulative output from January to September was 507.84GW, a year - on - year increase of 2.43%. The operating rate in September was 59.56%, a month - on - month increase of 2.67 percentage points. At the end of September, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories (SMM) was 3.04GW, a month - on - month decrease. The predicted output in October is 59.6GW, a slight month - on - month decrease [74][77]. - **Module**: In September (SMM), the module output was 49.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 0.7GW, and the cumulative output from January to September was 429.5GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.34%. The operating rate in September was 48.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.39 percentage points. At the end of September, the finished module inventory (SMM) was 33.6GW, a month - on - month decrease. The predicted output in October is 48.31GW, a decrease compared to September [82][85]. 5. Organic Silicon - **Output**: In September (百川盈孚), the DMC output was 208,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,800 tons. The cumulative DMC output from January to September was 1,861,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.89% [92]. - **Price and Profit**: As of September 30, 2025, the average price of organic silicon (SMM) was 11,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. The DMC gross profit (百川盈孚) was - 1,921.88 yuan/ton [95]. - **Inventory**: At the end of September, the DMC inventory (百川盈孚) was 44,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons [99]. 6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of September 30, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,130 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,940 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/ton. From January to August, the cumulative aluminum alloy output was 12,324,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2,163,000 tons or 21.29%. At the end of September, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4%, and that of recycled aluminum alloy was 56.6% [104][107]. - **Export**: From January to August, the cumulative net export of industrial silicon in China was 484,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 21,000 tons or 4.54% [110].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The impact of policy expectations on the polycrystalline silicon market currently outweighs the fundamental reality. However, as some policy nodes for capacity integration have passed without definite implementation, and there are still obstacles in price transmission at the terminal, a phased re - game between expectations and reality may begin. In the short term, prices are constrained by high inventory and weak demand, while in the medium term, the situation depends on the implementation of capacity integration policies [1][5][20]. 3) Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Expectations - **Energy Consumption Standards**: On September 16, 2025, the National Standardization Administration Committee issued the "Energy Consumption Quotas per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium (Draft for Comment)", marking the substantial strengthening of energy consumption supervision. The new standard tightens the upper limit of the comprehensive energy consumption of rod - shaped silicon from the current 10.5 kgce/kg to 6.4 kgce/kg, and the comprehensive energy consumption standard for granular silicon is 3.6 - 5.0 kgce/kg. After the adjustment of the existing capacity structure, China's effective polysilicon capacity will drop to about 2.4 million tons/year, a decrease of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 and 31.4% compared to the installed capacity. But the policy is still in the comment - soliciting stage, and its short - term impact on capacity is limited [6]. - **Capacity Integration**: Although listed silicon material companies have planned to use funds for supply - side reform and capacity adjustment, the "capacity integration policy" has not been clearly issued. In the short term, it is not enough to change the supply - demand pattern, and its marginal effect is weakening [10][13]. Industry Reality - **Price Transmission and Demand**: In September, the spot price of polysilicon continued to rise, and the basis changed from the futures premium to the spot premium. The profit of silicon material producers has improved, but the price increase at the downstream terminal component level is not smooth due to weak domestic demand and overseas order adjustments. From January to August 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 65% year - on - year, but in August, it decreased by 55% year - on - year [14]. - **Supply - Demand Balance in October**: In October, the supply of polysilicon is expected to increase as some enterprises in Qinghai resume production and new capacity ramps up, while downstream silicon wafer production may decrease due to quota restrictions. The inventory pressure remains, and the total industry inventory is estimated to be about 450,000 tons [15]. Registered Warehouse Receipts In the fourth quarter, the polysilicon futures market faces the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation and delivery. According to the rules of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, at least 20,000 tons of warehouse receipts will be affected by cancellation, putting pressure on the price of the 2511 contract [19]. Short - Term and Medium - Term Outlook - **Short - Term**: In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is expected to be weak in October due to warehouse receipt cancellation, inventory backlog, and lower downstream production. The support level for the 2511 contract is estimated at 48,000 yuan/ton [20]. - **Medium - Term**: In the medium term, the report is not overly pessimistic about the capacity integration policy but remains patient about its implementation method and time, regarding short - term price fluctuations as technical corrections [20].