中邮证券研报指出，西部黄金25H1实现归母净利润1.54亿元，Q2业绩表现亮眼。25H1黄金量价齐升支 撑公司业绩高增。敦现货黄金定盘价较年初上涨24.31%，上半年均价同比上涨39.21%；上海黄金交易 所Au9999黄金6月底收盘价较年初上涨24.50%，上半年加权平均价同比上涨41.07%。锰矿石市场中，钢 铁行业的低迷，使电解锰市场承受较大压力，但新能源领域（如高纯硫酸锰、四氧化三锰）需求强劲， 下半年预计整体供需趋于平衡，价格波动收窄。公司新疆美盛达产在即，预计显著增厚公司利润。随着 金价中枢稳健上移，美盛逐步放量贡献业绩，给予"增持"评级。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

Summary of Conference Call for Western Gold Industry Overview - The gold market is expected to experience multiple rebound opportunities despite a sideways trend in gold prices from June 2024 to September 2025, particularly after significant events such as Trump's election victory and tariff announcements in April 2025 [2][3] - The investment focus for 2025 will be on major changes within companies, such as the performance growth post-restructuring of Shengda Resources and the successful integration of Tongguan Gold's mining rights [2] Company-Specific Insights Western Gold - Western Gold's production guidance for 2025 is set at 1.9 tons, with projections of 4.6 tons in 2026 and 6.8-7 tons in 2027, indicating a significant increase in output [4][9] - The company has completed the integration of the Mikin mine and is advancing the resumption of operations at the Ili mine, with a technical upgrade expected to add 0.5 tons of production [2][6] - The Xinjiang Meisheng Katabas gold-copper mine is expected to contribute profits with an estimated annual production capacity of 2.5-2.6 tons at an 80% utilization rate [2][6] - A notable transaction involved the injection of 3.3 tons of production and 78-79 tons of resources into the listed company for 1.7 billion yuan, showcasing the group's willingness to support the company [2][6] Financial Performance - The anticipated profit for 2026 is over 1.5 billion yuan, with projections exceeding 2.5 billion yuan for 2027, based on current gold prices [4][9] - The cost control measures are stable, maintaining a cost range of 200-300 yuan per gram, which is competitive within the industry [10] Market Dynamics - The gold market's trading logic for 2025 revolves around identifying key buying points, particularly during periods of price consolidation before upward breaks [3] - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains strong due to factors such as de-globalization, unsustainable U.S. debt, and a potential interest rate cut cycle [12] Other Important Considerations - The manganese segment is in trial production, with a production target of 450,000 tons in 2025 to meet downstream demand [11] - Investors are advised to stay informed about industry dynamics and adjust strategies accordingly to capitalize on potential profit opportunities [13]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Both silicon iron and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively strong and volatile trend due to the boost of macro - sentiment [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing price of SF2511 is 5700, with no change from the previous trading day, and the trading volume is 210,936, and the open interest is 212,449; the closing price of SF2601 is 5680, up 20 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 80,355 and an open interest of 95,537. For manganese silicon, the closing price of MS2511 is 5920, up 26 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 170,580 and an open interest of 115,197; the closing price of MS2601 is 5944, up 38 from the previous day, with a trading volume of 220,244 and an open interest of 335,721 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.2 yuan/ton - degree from the previous day; the price of small - sized semi - coke in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: The spot - futures price spread of silicon iron (spot - 11 futures) is - 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price spread of manganese silicon (spot - 01 futures) is - 214 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton. The near - far month price spread of silicon iron (SF2511 - SF2601) is 20 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the near - far month price spread of manganese silicon (MS2511 - MS2601) is - 24 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price spread of MS2511 - SF2511 is 220 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price spread of MS2601 - SF2601 is 264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon Prices**: On September 16, the price of 72 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5200 - 5300 (+50), in Ningxia is 5350 - 5450 (+100), in Qinghai is 5250 - 5350 (+50), in Gansu is 5350 - 5400 (+50), and in Inner Mongolia is 5350 - 5400 (+50); the price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 5900, in Ningxia is 5700 - 5800, in Qinghai is 5750 - 5800, in Gansu is 5800 - 5850, and in Inner Mongolia is 5800 (cash - inclusive natural lump ex - factory, yuan/ton). The FOB price of 72 silicon iron is 1040 - 1060, and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 (US dollars/ton, inclusive of tax). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon manganese is 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton (cash ex - factory tax - inclusive quotation) [1]. - **Steel Mill's Purchase**: A steel mill in Shandong has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon iron at 5740 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 200 tons [1]. - **South Korea's Manganese Ore Import**: In August 2025, South Korea imported 110.02 tons of manganese ore, a sharp 99.73% decline from the previous month. From January to August 2025, South Korea imported a total of 248,588 tons of manganese ore, a slight 13.4% increase year - on - year, but a significant 58.14% decrease compared with the same period in 2023. Due to the low iron alloy prices and high electricity costs, most South Korean alloy producers are not operating at full capacity, and some are still cutting production by 30% - 50%, resulting in low manganese ore imports since 2023 [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon iron is 1, and that of manganese silicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3].

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Western Gold has surged significantly since September, with five limit-up days in seven trading days, despite the announcement of a subsidiary's production halt for maintenance [1][5]. Group 1: Subsidiary Production Halt - Western Gold's wholly-owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Hongfa Ferroalloy Co., Ltd., will halt production for maintenance after depleting its existing raw material inventory, with the maintenance period expected to last until the end of the year [3][4]. - The financial impact of this production halt on the company remains uncertain, but the company asserts that its main business operations will not be affected [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, Western Gold reported total revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94% [5]. - The company produced 5.9 tons of gold in the first half of 2025, achieving 60.24% of its annual target, and also produced 4.04 million tons of electrolytic manganese and 15.97 million tons of manganese ore [5]. Group 3: Stock Price Movement - The stock price of Western Gold reached a historical high of 33.66 yuan per share on September 10, with an increase of over 80% in ten trading days, including five limit-up days [5]. - Following the peak, the stock price experienced a decline, closing at 31.99 yuan on September 11 and further dropping to 31.35 yuan on September 12, although the year-to-date increase remains around 175% [5].

Group 1 - The company, Western Gold, is a major player in the gold mining industry in Xinjiang, China, focusing on gold while also developing manganese and beryllium sectors through acquisitions [1][2] - The company has a total gold metal resource of 32.1 tons and a reserve of 12.1 tons, with a grade exceeding 3g/t, and is working on the resumption of production at key mines [1] - The company has significant manganese resources of 1,136 tons and reserves of 554 tons, with production expected to ramp up from its subsidiaries [1] Group 2 - The completion of the injection of Xinjiang Meisheng's core assets, including the Katerba Asu gold-copper mine, is expected to significantly increase the company's gold resources by 245% and annual gold production by over 300% by 2025 [2] - The company is poised for a high growth phase, with projections indicating a turnaround to profitability in 2024 and substantial revenue growth in the following years [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 9.041 billion, 12.408 billion, and 14.576 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 469 million, 1.645 billion, and 2.438 billion yuan [3]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned for significant growth with the completion of the acquisition of Xinjiang Meisheng, which is expected to enhance its gold and copper production capabilities [2]. - The anticipated restart of interest rate cuts in the U.S. is expected to drive gold prices higher, benefiting the company's revenue [2]. - The company is projected to turn profitable in 2024 and enter a high growth phase in 2025, with substantial increases in revenue and net profit forecasted for the coming years [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company, Western Gold, is a major player in the gold mining sector in Xinjiang, China, and has expanded into manganese and beryllium through acquisitions [1][10]. - The company has a total gold resource of 32.1 tons and a manganese resource of 1,136 tons, with ongoing projects aimed at increasing production capacity [1][22]. 2. Core Assets - The company has significant assets in Xinjiang, including the Katerba Asu gold-copper mine, which has a gold resource of 78.73 tons and is expected to start production in late 2025 [2][52]. - The company’s gold production is expected to increase significantly, with plans to produce 1.79 tons in 2025 [23]. 3. Industry Outlook - The report highlights a favorable outlook for gold prices due to anticipated monetary easing and increased demand from central banks [2][3]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with a diversified portfolio that includes gold, manganese, and beryllium [1][2]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 9.04 billion yuan in 2025 to 14.58 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit expected to increase from 469 million yuan to 2.44 billion yuan in the same period [3][4]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease significantly from 53 in 2025 to 10 in 2027, indicating strong earnings growth potential [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached new highs, leading to significant stock price increases for Western Gold and other gold companies, driven by rising sales and production in the gold sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Western Gold's stock price hit a limit up at 26.51 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 24.2 billion yuan, marking the third consecutive trading day of limit up [1]. - In the first half of 2025, Western Gold reported revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, a year-on-year surge of 131.94% [1]. - The growth in performance is attributed to increased sales prices and volumes of gold products, higher gold production from its own mines, and steady progress in the manganese industry chain [1]. Group 2: Strategic Acquisitions - In May 2025, Western Gold acquired 100% of Hongfa Ferroalloy through a capital reduction from related parties, enhancing the integrity of its manganese industry chain and strengthening control and decision-making efficiency [1]. - In August 2025, the company acquired 100% of Xinjiang Meisheng in cash, laying a solid foundation for a business model centered on gold, with manganese and beryllium as supplementary sectors, thereby improving overall competitiveness and risk resistance [2]. Group 3: Production and Future Plans - In the first half of 2025, Western Gold produced 5.9 tons of gold, achieving 60.24% of its annual target, an increase of 1.36 tons compared to 4.54 tons in the same period last year [2]. - The company plans to produce 1,793.7 kilograms of gold and 8,000 kilograms of externally sourced refined gold in 2025, alongside manganese production targets of 450,000 tons of manganese ore and 80,000 tons of electrolytic manganese [2].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue driven by higher traded volumes and average selling prices, but faced a loss after tax due to industry-wide margin compression, particularly in ferrosilicon prices [7][8] - EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was approximately USD 19.1 million, a significant decrease from USD 46.6 million in the same period of 2024 [7][12] - The loss per share for 2025 was recorded at 1.25 US cents [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Manganese ore remains a core product, with the company procuring for internal consumption and external sales, primarily to China [5] - Ferrosilicon prices have been on a downward trend since December 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 10.4% [9] - Silicon manganese prices have remained stable, supported by stable manganese ore prices [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ferrosilicon market is under pressure due to increased competition from Russian materials and weaker downstream demand [8][9] - The company expects manganese alloy prices to remain firm throughout the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on sustainability initiatives, including repurposing byproducts to support a circular economy [14] - The company aims to maintain its position as a low-cost producer and leverage its access to renewable energy [16][17] - Strategic initiatives include continuous assessment of production returns and securing supply well in advance [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that operational stability and cash flow reflect the company's ability to sustain during cyclical lows [12] - The company is awaiting further details on the upcoming carbon tax in Malaysia, which may impact the ferroalloy sector [18] Other Important Information - The Butu Creek manganese mine in Australia remains under care and maintenance, focusing on rehabilitation [10] - The company has successfully refinanced its project finance loans, contributing to a decline in the gearing ratio [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Will the carbon tax in Malaysia impact the ferroalloy sector? - Management indicated that the carbon tax will be introduced in 2026, and further details are awaited to assess its impact on operations [18] Question: What are the tariffs on exports of ferrosilicon and manganese alloys to the US? - The US does not apply reciprocal tariffs on manganese alloys, while ferrosilicon is subject to a 19% tariff for Malaysia, compared to 50% for Brazil and India [20][21] Question: Has the company implemented any hedging policy on ferroalloy prices? - Currently, the company does not have any hedging policies on ferroalloy prices due to the lack of an international futures market [24] Question: How much does the manganese supply from Chippy and Briar contribute? - Chippy's manganese ore supply is primarily traded and exported to China, with an annual traded volume of approximately 420,000 to 460,000 tons, while Briar is still under exploration with no current production [26][28]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a revenue driven by higher traded volumes and average selling prices, although offset by lower alloy volumes and weaker prices, particularly in ferrosilicon [7] - EBITDA for 2025 was approximately USD 19.1 million, a significant decrease from USD 46.6 million in 2024 [7][13] - The company recorded a loss per share of 1.25 US cents for 2025 [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Manganese ore remains a core product, with procurement for internal consumption and sales to third parties, primarily exporting to China [5] - The Sarawak plant produces manganese and silicon alloys, which are critical in steelmaking, with a focus on maintaining higher average selling prices for manganese alloys [12] - The Butu Creek manganese mine in Australia has ceased production since December 2021 and is currently under care and maintenance [4][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ferrosilicon prices have decreased by approximately 10.4% year-on-year compared to 2024, with a downward trend observed since December 2024 [10] - Silicon manganese prices have remained stable, indicating strong support from stable manganese ore prices [10] - The company expects manganese alloy prices to remain firm throughout the rest of 2025 and into early 2026 [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on sustainability initiatives, including repurposing byproducts to support a circular economy and maintaining ISO certifications [15][16] - The company aims to lower its debt profile, with a declining gearing ratio and successful refinancing of project finance loans [13][14] - The competitive edge is supported by access to affordable renewable energy and a strong customer base [17][18] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges in the ferrosilicon market due to increased competition and weaker downstream demand [9] - The company is actively monitoring the implementation of a carbon tax in Malaysia, which may impact production costs in the ferroalloy sector [20] - The operational stability and cash flow reflect the company's resilience during cyclical lows [14] Other Important Information - The company has repurposed silica manganese slag for road pavements and ground leveling work within the smelter complex [15] - The Sarawak operations remain strong, with two ferrosilicon furnaces completing major maintenance [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of carbon levy on ferroalloy sector - Management is awaiting further details on the carbon tax framework and its potential impact on operations in Sarawak [20] Question: Tariffs on export of ferrosilicon and manganese alloys - The US does not apply reciprocal tariffs on manganese alloys, while ferrosilicon is subject to tariffs, with Malaysia having a 19% rate compared to 50% for Brazil and India [21][22] Question: Hedging policy on ferroalloy prices - The company does not have any hedging policies on ferroalloy prices due to the lack of an international futures market [25] Question: Contribution of manganese supply from Chippy and Briar - Chippy's manganese ore supply is primarily traded to China, with limited logistical efficiency for Sarawak production, while Briar is still under exploration with no current production [27][28]