Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the Life Insurance Rate Research Expert Advisory Committee highlighted a slight decrease in the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products to 1.89%, marking the fifth consecutive adjustment since the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism linked to market rates [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Adjustments - The current predetermined interest rate for life insurance products is 1.89%, down from 1.90%, reflecting a continuous decline in recent adjustments [1]. - The historical adjustments for the predetermined interest rate were 2.34%, 2.13%, 1.99%, and 1.90% in the previous quarters, showing a decreasing trend with diminishing adjustment magnitudes [1]. - The downward adjustments have eased market concerns regarding the marginal decline of life insurance predetermined interest rates [1]. Group 2: Dynamic Adjustment Mechanism - The dynamic adjustment mechanism has been successfully implemented, enhancing cost efficiency, market-oriented levels, and risk management capabilities within the industry [2]. - The renaming of the committee to the Life Insurance Rate Research Expert Advisory Committee aligns better with the needs of liability research under new accounting standards [2]. - The meeting emphasized the positive outcomes of industry transformation, removing previous language about "facing challenges" [2]. Group 3: Product Stability - Current life insurance products, such as increasing whole life insurance, do not face delisting pressure as the predetermined interest rate remains within acceptable limits [3]. - Most insurance companies have a predetermined interest rate of 2.0%, which is only 11 basis points above the latest research value of 1.89%, not triggering the regulatory threshold for adjustment [3]. - The long-term bond yield trend is expected to stabilize, reducing the likelihood of new adjustments to the predetermined interest rate [3]. Group 4: Future Projections - The industry anticipates that the predetermined interest rate for life insurance products will maintain its current level, with low probability for significant fluctuations in 2026 [4]. - If the yield curve for government bonds and other interest rates remain stable, the projected predetermined interest rate for the end of 2026 is estimated to be 2.00%, consistent with current product offerings [4]. - Experts suggest that the downward adjustment of the predetermined interest rate is reaching a rational level, with limited room for further declines due to stabilizing asset returns [5].

预定利率研究值下调趋缓，利率企稳利好利差损改善 [Table_Industry] 保险 ——保险行业协会公布 26 年 1 月人身险预定利率研究值点评 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导读： 新一期人身险预定利率研究值维持相对稳定，预计长端利率稳定利好保险公司利差 空间改善，维持行业"增持"。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 事件： 1 月 20 日，保险行业协会组织召开人身保险业责任准备金 评估利率专家咨询委员会 2025 年四季度例会，研究认为当前普通 型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为 1.89%。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 保险《11 月保费增速边际 ...

Core Viewpoint - The predetermined interest rate for personal insurance products has been updated to 1.89%, marking a fourth consecutive decline, but the rate of decrease is narrowing, indicating a stabilization trend in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Updates - The latest predetermined interest rate research value is set at 1.89%, down from previous values of 2.34%, 2.13%, 1.99%, and 1.90% in the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The decline in the research value is attributed to the implementation of a mechanism linking predetermined rates to market rates, which has been effective in reducing costs and enhancing risk management within the industry [1][2]. Group 2: Market Influences and Trends - The narrowing decline in the research value is primarily due to the stability of the 10-year government bond yield, which is currently around 1.8% [3]. - Analysts suggest that while interest rates may continue to decline, the extent of future reductions will be limited, providing a stable foundation for insurance product design [2][4]. Group 3: Future Projections - Industry experts predict that the predetermined interest rate for personal insurance will remain stable at current levels through 2026, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will not drop below 1% [4][5]. - The insurance sector's premium income growth is closely linked to previous investment returns and current bank deposit rates, indicating a potential increase in demand for insurance products with floating returns [4].

Core Insights - The insurance market is experiencing a significant shift due to the adjustment of the "predetermined interest rate" for life insurance, which has been set at 1.89% as of January 20, indicating a downward trend over the past year [1][2] - The adjustment mechanism for the predetermined interest rate is now linked to market interest rates, with quarterly updates mandated by regulatory authorities [2] - The current gap between the highest predetermined interest rate for life insurance products (2%) and the research value (1.89%) is 11 basis points, which does not meet the threshold for a collective adjustment [2] Group 1: Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The predetermined interest rate for life insurance products has shown a consistent decline, with values recorded at 2.34%, 2.13%, 1.99%, and 1.90% over the past year [1] - The dynamic adjustment mechanism requires insurance companies to lower the maximum predetermined interest rate if it exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters [2] - Current projections suggest that if market interest rates remain stable, the predetermined interest rate may not see significant adjustments in 2026 [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Consumers and Insurance Companies - A decrease in the predetermined interest rate could lead to reduced guaranteed returns on savings-type life insurance products, extending the payback period and potentially increasing premiums for protection-type products [4] - The insurance industry is expected to transition towards products that combine guaranteed returns with floating dividends, enhancing market pricing and risk management capabilities [5] - The complexity of new product designs, such as dividend and universal life insurance, poses challenges for insurance companies and agents, necessitating higher professional standards [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - Despite the downward trend in interest rates, there is a noted increase in inquiries and sales for savings-type insurance products, indicating a mixed market response [6] - The unique structure of insurance products, which combines guaranteed returns with potential floating dividends, offers competitive advantages in a declining interest rate environment [7] - Insurance products provide a long-term locked-in interest rate, effectively mitigating reinvestment risks, which is appealing to consumers amid fluctuating bank deposit rates [7][8]

2026.01. 21 本文字数：1499，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杨倩雯 最新一期人身险预定利率研究值从上一季度的1.9%再次微降1BP（基点），基本保持平稳，也符合 前期业内分析师的预测。 尽管研究值从去年初公布的首期就开始一路下降，但降幅逐季收窄，目前离以此为基准再次下调人身 险产品定价的阈值尚有距离。业内分析师预测，中期来看，新产品预定利率上限调整可能性并不高。 研究值四连降，降幅逐季收窄 根据2025年初国家金融监管总局发布的《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事 项的通知》（下称《通知》）的要求，当在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续两个季度比预 定利率研究值高25BP及以上时，要及时下调新产品预定利率最高值。而预定利率又是人身险产品定 价的重要因素，因此，每季度发布的预定利率研究值就成了人身险产品是否会又一次大规模调价 的"标准线"。 中国保险行业协会2025年1月发布的首期人身险预订利率研究值为2.34%，此后各季度分别为 2.13%、1.99%、1.9%以及此次的1.89%。虽然 经历四连降，但调降幅度逐季收窄。 根据《通知》内容，上述研究值作为人身险预定利 ...

中期来看人身险新产品预定利率上限调整可能性并不高。 离定价调整线尚有距离 尽管研究值出现四连降，但离用以定价的人身险预定利率上限调整线仍有相当距离。 尽管研究值从去年初公布的首期就开始一路下降，但降幅逐季收窄，目前离以此为基准再次下调人身险 产品定价的阈值尚有距离。业内分析师预测，中期来看，新产品预定利率上限调整可能性并不高。 研究值四连降，降幅逐季收窄 根据2025年初国家金融监管总局发布的《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事项的 通知》（下称《通知》）的要求，当在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续两个季度比预定利率 研究值高25BP及以上时，要及时下调新产品预定利率最高值。而预定利率又是人身险产品定价的重要 因素，因此，每季度发布的预定利率研究值就成了人身险产品是否会又一次大规模调价的"标准线"。 中国保险行业协会2025年1月发布的首期人身险预订利率研究值为2.34%，此后各季度分别为2.13%、 1.99%、1.9%以及此次的1.89%。虽然经历四连降，但调降幅度逐季收窄。 根据《通知》内容，上述研究值作为人身险预定利率最高值的"锚"，是结合5年期以上贷款市场报价利 率（LPR）、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association (CIIA) has announced that the predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is currently set at 1.89%, marking the fifth consecutive publication of this research value since the establishment of the dynamic adjustment mechanism [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Research Values - The predetermined interest rate research values for the first four quarters of 2025 were published as follows: 2.34% in January, 2.13% in April, 1.99% in July, and 1.90% in October [3]. - The current research value of 1.89% reflects a downward trend in the interest rates for ordinary life insurance products [1][3]. Group 2: Regulatory Framework - In January 2025, the Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice regarding the establishment of a mechanism linking predetermined interest rates to market rates, requiring quarterly publication of the research values to provide a core basis for adjustments [5]. - The notice mandates that life insurance companies dynamically adjust the maximum values for predetermined interest rates of ordinary and participating life insurance, as well as the minimum guaranteed interest rates for universal life insurance [5].

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Industry Association has lowered the research value for the maximum guaranteed interest rate for ordinary life insurance products to 1.9%, a decrease of 9 basis points from the previous quarter's 1.99% [1][2][4] Group 1: Research Value Trends - The decline in the research value has been narrowing over the past three quarters, with the initial value in January being 2.34%, followed by 2.13%, 1.99%, and now 1.9% [2][4] - The current research value is considered to be in line with expectations, as stated by analysts [2][4] Group 2: Regulatory Framework - According to the regulatory notice, if the maximum guaranteed interest rate for current ordinary life insurance products exceeds the research value by 25 basis points for two consecutive quarters, a downward adjustment must be made [2][6] - The current maximum guaranteed interest rate is 2%, which is still 15 basis points above the research value, indicating that a downward adjustment is not imminent [6] Group 3: Market Conditions and Predictions - Analysts suggest that the stability of long-term interest rates since early 2025 has contributed to the narrowing decline in the research value [4][7] - Predictions indicate that if current interest rates remain stable, the research value for the end of 2026 could be around 1.87%, which would not trigger the regulatory threshold for adjustment [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is set at 1.99%, triggering a downward adjustment in the maximum allowable rates for various insurance products [1][3][7]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - The China Insurance Industry Association announced that the maximum predetermined interest rates for new insurance products will be adjusted: ordinary life insurance to 2.0%, participating insurance to 1.75%, and universal insurance to a minimum guaranteed rate of 1.0% [1][7]. - As of August 31, 2025, insurance companies will no longer accept applications for products with rates exceeding these new maximums [2][8]. Historical Context and Mechanism - The predetermined interest rate research value has been linked to market interest rates, including the 5-year loan market quotation rate (LPR) and 10-year government bond yields [3][5]. - The recent adjustment marks a significant historical low for predetermined interest rates, with the previous values being 2.34% in January and 2.13% in April of the same year [3][5][7]. Market Reactions and Future Implications - Major insurance companies, including China Life and Ping An Life, have responded to the new research value by adjusting their product offerings accordingly [1][7]. - The insurance industry is expected to continue transitioning towards participating insurance products, as the 2% predetermined interest rate is seen as a critical threshold for sales performance [8][9].