（文章来源：经济日报） 业绩飘红的背后，投资端回暖功不可没。中央财经大学中国精算科技实验室主任陈辉表示，去年底以 来，权益市场持续回升，不少险企加大股票和基金配置力度，综合投资收益明显改善；同时，"报行合 一"新规压降渠道成本，险企主动调整产品结构，减少高成本低价值产品，增加分红、万能、投连等弹 性较强的产品，降低了负债成本。投资收益和费用优化双轮驱动，让不少险企利润曲线向上翘起。 行业负债端进入"再定价"时代。普通型人身险产品的预定利率研究值已降至1.99%，连续两季度触发上 限调整机制，分红险、万能险等的定价利率也同步下调。业内专家认为，这意味着行业在产品端迎来新 一轮结构调整，预定利率下调既能缓解利差损压力，又有助于提升新单盈利性和销售积极性，为公司和 客户构建更加稳健的利益格局。 在行业整体回暖的背景下，中英人寿也交出一份稳中有进的答卷。上半年，该公司预计实现保险业务收 入142.68亿元，同比增长31%，净利润6.81亿元；期末综合偿付能力充足率305.83%、核心偿付能力充足 率217.4%。 业内人士普遍认为，今年上半年非上市人身险公司业绩的回暖，是行业从高速增长向高质量发展转型的 重要标志。净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by investors in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the shift in insurance products and the role of fixed income plus (固收+) funds in alleviating yield anxiety [5][6][12]. Group 1: Insurance Market Dynamics - The core function of insurance is to lock in future risks at a lower cost, evolving from traditional life and health insurance to more complex financial products [7]. - The insurance sector has seen a significant increase in new premium growth since 2022, driven by market conditions and the "theater effect" where companies maintain high rates to attract customers [9][10]. - The sales channels for insurance have shifted, with bank insurance channels becoming increasingly important, as financial advisors take on a larger role in selling insurance products [10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies in Low-Interest Environment - In a low-interest-rate environment, insurance companies are seeking investment opportunities in equity markets, aligning with regulatory long-term assessment mechanisms [12][13]. - Fixed income plus (固收+) funds are recommended for investors seeking stability, as they typically consist of bonds and convertible bonds while using equity positions to enhance flexibility [15][22]. - Investors should consider their risk preferences and review fund reports to select suitable products, focusing on long-term performance metrics such as maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratio [18][21]. Group 3: Asset Allocation and Timing - The long-term return on equity assets is linked to the ROE of listed companies, necessitating careful timing in asset selection to avoid purchasing at inflated prices [19]. - A balanced asset allocation strategy is advised, with part of the portfolio in fixed income assets and the other part in higher-risk assets to achieve diversification [22][23].

Summary of Conference Call on the Insurance Industry Industry Overview - The insurance industry is currently experiencing a "slow bull market" driven primarily by investment yield improvements, with a low proportion of new business relative to existing liabilities. The key to future profitability lies in the widening gap between investment yields and liability costs [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Yield and Liability Costs**: The pricing rate for ordinary life insurance is set to decrease by 50 basis points (BP), which will improve existing liability costs, although the extent of this improvement remains to be seen. The dynamic adjustment mechanism and cost control measures are expected to continue enhancing the cost of existing liabilities [1][2]. - **Regulatory Adjustments**: Regulatory changes and market stabilization measures have increased the capacity and willingness of insurance funds to allocate to equity assets. It is anticipated that 30% of new premiums will be allocated to equity assets, which will help boost investment yields [1][2]. - **Market Valuation**: The market currently undervalues the existing business of insurance companies, failing to fully account for the potential impacts of increased equity allocation and reduced cost structures. This presents an opportunity for valuation recovery within the industry [1][3]. - **Davis Double Opportunity**: The current insurance industry presents a Davis Double opportunity based on three factors: investment yield, liability costs, and leverage effects. Historical data indicates that investment yield improvements have significantly influenced valuations during previous upturns [2]. Stock Selection Criteria - **High Leverage Life Insurance Stocks**: Focus on companies that are significantly impacted by expected improvements in interest spreads, such as New China Life, China Life, and China Pacific Insurance [4]. - **Stable Dividend Stocks**: Consider companies with stable operations and dividend outlooks, such as Ping An Insurance, China Re, and China Taiping [4]. Future Profitability and Valuation - **Valuation Recovery Potential**: The insurance industry's valuation should be assessed from both net asset and existing business perspectives. The current low market valuation of existing business does not consider the potential for equity allocation and cost reductions. In an ideal scenario, industry valuations could recover to one times net asset value, with further upside potential [3]. - **Profitability Model Breakdown**: The profitability model can be dissected into investment yield, liability cost rate, and leverage. All three factors currently show growth potential, supporting the case for industry valuation recovery [6]. Additional Considerations - **Leverage and Investment Yield**: The potential for increased leverage and investment yield, combined with declining liability costs, suggests that future interest spreads have room for improvement. This is supported by the current market and regulatory environment [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector in Hong Kong is experiencing significant growth, as evidenced by the strong performance of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index and its associated ETF, which have seen substantial increases in both value and trading volume [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index rose by 2.06%, with key stocks such as Guotai Junan International and China Life Insurance showing notable gains [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF achieved a 93.14% increase in net value over the past year, ranking in the top 1.06% among 2,938 index stock funds [2]. - The ETF's trading volume reached a record high of 1.95 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 1.81 billion yuan over the past week [1][2]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Size - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 18 days, totaling 5.4 billion yuan, with a single-day peak inflow of 820 million yuan [1]. - The ETF's total size reached 10.753 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception, with the number of shares also hitting a record of 6.477 billion [1]. Group 3: Index Composition and Changes - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Financial Theme Index account for 77.92% of the index, with major players including China Ping An and AIA Group [3]. - Recent adjustments to the life insurance industry's preset interest rates are expected to impact various insurance products, potentially leading to a shift in business structure towards participating insurance [3][4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The reduction in preset interest rates is anticipated to lower the cost of liabilities for life insurance companies, encouraging a transition towards participating insurance products, which are expected to become more attractive to customers [4]. - The non-bank financial sector, particularly insurance, is positioned to benefit from favorable market conditions, including stable long-term interest rates and a strong stock market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the pricing interest rates for life insurance products, highlighting the implications for industry profitability, growth, and asset allocation [1][2][3][4]. Pricing Rate Adjustments - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance products is set to decrease from 2.5% to 2.0%, while the guaranteed interest rate for participating insurance will drop from 2% to 1.75%, and for universal insurance from 1.5% to 1.0% [2]. - Major companies like Ping An, China Life, and Taikang Life will switch to the new pricing rates after August 31 [2]. Impact on Industry Profitability - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to lower the rigid repayment costs for new business, improving long-term interest rate risk for insurance companies [2]. - There are concerns that the short-term floating costs for participating insurance may increase, but the overall long-term profitability is anticipated to improve significantly [2]. Impact on Industry Growth - Short-term sales may experience a "stop-and-go" phenomenon due to channel dynamics, but the attractiveness of 2.5% priced products is diminishing [3]. - Long-term growth may face challenges for traditional insurance due to lower actual returns and liquidity, while participating insurance could see growth opportunities as floating returns may exceed those of traditional insurance [3]. Impact on Asset Allocation - Participating insurance has lower rigid cost liabilities and shorter effective durations compared to traditional insurance, allowing for more flexibility in asset allocation [3]. - Changes in asset allocation will likely occur gradually in response to shifts in liability structures [3]. Company-Specific Impacts - Companies that have already transitioned to participating insurance are expected to adapt more quickly to these changes, benefiting from established sales channels and lower liability bases [4]. - The proactive shift towards participating insurance reflects a long-term operational strategy that is crucial for creating sustained value in the life insurance sector [4].

非银金融 2025 年 07 月 27 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -17% 0% 17% 34% 50% 67% 84% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 非银金融 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《券商定增再填一例，继续看好低估 值券商板块机会 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.7.20 《券商中报预告超预期，继续推荐券 商板块—行业点评报告》-2025.7.15 《险企考核周期再拉长，券商中报超 预期继续推荐—行业周报》-2025.7.13 预定利率调降 50bp 符合预期，交易量站上两万亿 ——行业周报 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | lukun@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040002 周观点：预定利率调降 50bp 符合预期，交易量站上两万亿 2季度公募持仓数据看，券商板块仍明显欠配：2025Q2主动型基金重仓股中券商 板块占比0.78% ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is undergoing a significant adjustment in predetermined interest rates for various insurance products, with the maximum rates for ordinary life insurance set to decrease to 2%, dividend insurance to 1.75%, and universal insurance to 1.0%, reflecting a downward trend in market interest rates and regulatory requirements [1][10][13]. Summary by Sections Predetermined Interest Rate Adjustments - Major insurance companies have announced a reduction in the maximum predetermined interest rates for their products, with ordinary life insurance dropping to 2%, dividend insurance to 1.75%, and universal insurance to 1.0%, marking declines of 50, 25, and 50 basis points respectively [1][10][13]. - The current maximum predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance was previously 2.5%, which has now reached the threshold for adjustment due to being 25 basis points above the research value [5][12]. Market Trends and Regulatory Impact - The downward adjustment in predetermined interest rates is a response to the ongoing decline in long-term market interest rates, with the 5-year loan market quoted rate (LPR) at 3.5% and 10-year government bond yields around 1.7% [14]. - Regulatory changes, including the introduction of IFRS 17 and the second-generation solvency regulatory framework, have increased the transparency of product pricing and financial reporting, prompting insurance companies to adopt more prudent actuarial practices [14]. Sales Strategies and Market Dynamics - The reduction in predetermined interest rates is expected to impact the attractiveness of insurance products to consumers, potentially leading to increased sales challenges for insurance companies [19]. - Companies are shifting towards dividend insurance products, which have seen a smaller reduction in predetermined interest rates, making them more appealing in the current market environment [15][16]. - The industry is experiencing a transition towards dividend insurance as companies prepare for the new rate adjustments, with many already offering products with predetermined interest rates as low as 1.5% [18]. Consumer Behavior and Market Response - Historical patterns suggest that prior to rate adjustments, there is often a surge in sales driven by consumer perceptions of impending changes, although this trend may be less pronounced in the current environment due to increased consumer rationality and transparency in pricing [18]. - The overall sales environment for life insurance companies has been challenging, exacerbated by previous market demand being pulled forward due to speculative sales tactics [19].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry in China is entering a low interest rate environment, with the standard rate for life insurance products expected to drop to 1.5%, significantly impacting product offerings and sales strategies [1][2][5]. Interest Rate Adjustments - The predetermined interest rate for ordinary life insurance is projected to decrease from 2.5% to 2.0%, while dividend insurance will drop from 2.0% to 1.5%, and universal insurance from 1.5% to 1.0% by the end of August 2025 [1][2]. - The China Insurance Industry Association's research value for the first quarter of 2025 was reported at 2.13%, a decline of 21 basis points from the beginning of the year [1][2]. Market Response - The market reaction to the impending rate cuts has been notably subdued, with agents reporting difficulties in selling existing products, indicating a shift in consumer focus away from guaranteed returns [1][6]. - Some insurance companies have already launched new products with a 1.5% predetermined interest rate, signaling a proactive approach to the changing market conditions [3]. Risk Management - The low interest rate environment has heightened the risk of interest spread losses, where investment returns fail to cover the guaranteed rates promised to policyholders [5]. - The current yield on 10-year government bonds is around 1.67%, creating a significant gap with the historical rates of 3%-4.025% for products sold during peak periods [5]. Shift in Sales Strategy - As guaranteed returns become less attractive, insurance companies are increasingly focusing on value-added services and customer engagement, moving towards a "insurance + service" model [8][10]. - The industry is witnessing a transformation where agents are expected to adopt a consultative role rather than a purely sales-driven approach, emphasizing the importance of holistic service offerings [10]. Product Innovation - The introduction of additional services, such as health management and elder care, is becoming a key selling point for insurance products, reflecting changing consumer preferences [9][10]. - Companies are integrating various service offerings into their insurance products to enhance customer experience and retention [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is accelerating product transformation in the current low-interest-rate environment, with dividend insurance becoming a key focus for life insurance companies. Regulatory guidance has been issued to ensure prudent determination of dividend levels for 2024, emphasizing sustainable operations and long-termism while preventing excessive competition in dividend levels [1][2][5]. Group 1: Regulatory Guidance - The regulatory opinion requires insurance companies to balance the predetermined interest rates of dividend insurance with actual investment returns and to ensure that dividend levels reflect the performance of their accounts [2][3]. - Companies must improve the quality of their dividend insurance business, aligning it with asset-liability management principles and ensuring that dividend levels are sustainable [2][5]. - Specific conditions are outlined for companies proposing dividend levels that exceed certain thresholds, necessitating thorough justification and approval from asset-liability management committees [3]. Group 2: Market Trends - Dividend insurance is currently a significant segment in the insurance industry, with 151 out of 403 new life insurance products launched in 2023 being dividend insurance, representing a 37% share, an increase of 9 percentage points from the previous year [4]. - Analysts predict that dividend insurance will dominate new business premiums, potentially accounting for 50% to 60% of new policies due to its "guaranteed + floating" characteristics, which align well with the current low-interest-rate environment [6]. - The shift towards floating yield insurance products is seen as beneficial for both insurers and consumers, as it can lower the rigid liability costs for insurance companies while sharing excess returns with policyholders [4][6].

业内专家分析，4月人身险保费增速反弹主要受外部利率环境与险企主动调整双重推动。一方面，低利率环境下，保险产品"保障+投资收益共 享"特性吸引力凸显，尤其契合消费者对长期稳定回报的需求；另一方面，4月分红险、年金险等储蓄型产品集中上市，叠加"报行合一"政策推动 银保渠道资源向期缴、中长期产品倾斜，进一步激发市场需求。民生证券研报指出，尽管年初因基数较高及险企切换产品导致保费承压，但伴随 市场利率下行，保险产品需求有望持续复苏。 近期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）下调，国有大行、股份制银行集体调降存款利率，保险产品预定利率与市场利率挂钩机制下，或面临下调压力。 数据显示，一季度普通型人身险预定利率研究值已降至2.13%，较前值下调0.21个百分点。若二季度研究值仍低于2.25%，普通型人身险预定利率 最高值将被迫下调，传统固定收益类寿险产品竞争力或被削弱。 【环球网财经综合报道】随着存款利率持续走低，国有大行一年期定存利率跌破1%，保险产品凭借保本及确定性收益优势，成为消费者锁定长期 收益的核心选择。2025年前4月，保险业人身险原保费收入达2.1万亿元，同比增长1.8%，增速较一季度0.24%显著回升；其中，4月单 ...