Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with the upside potential depending on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, and the downside limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, awaiting further clarity on fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production plans; long - term attention should be on the implementation of the purchase and storage policy and inventory depletion progress [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,850 yuan/ton and closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 221,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 28, 2025, was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 - silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 25, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable, with the planned production in December around 114,000 tons, slightly decreasing from November, and the demand for industrial silicon changed little. The weekly production schedule of organic silicon fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week, with a possible reduction in industrial silicon consumption of about 5,000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the regenerative aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that cut production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - cut state. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be stable with a weakening trend [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 59,000 yuan/ton and closing at 56,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.84% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 95,631 lots (119,162 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 69,428 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.40% increase; silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a 0.88% increase. The weekly polysilicon production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase; silicon wafer production was 10.33 GW, a 3.19% decrease [3]. Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices - Silicon wafer: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.25 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.35 yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cell: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5]. - Component: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of continuous inventory reduction and limited demand during the off - season, with steel prices oscillating. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. For rebar, production and demand both increase weekly, and inventory continues to decline. For hot - rolled coils, short - term centralized maintenance and production cuts lead to a slightly larger inventory decline. The iron ore market shows a double - decline pattern in supply and demand, with port inventory continuing to rise slightly. The coking coal and coke market has relatively loose overall supply, and the inventory pressure of coke is not large, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - The five major steel products continued to reduce inventory last week. Rebar had both increased production and demand, and its inventory continued to decline. The inventory reduction of hot - rolled coils accelerated slightly, which supported the price, with both futures and spot prices rising and the basis narrowing. The fundamentals of the steel market continued to improve, leading to a rebound in steel prices [9][10]. 02 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: Rebar production increased slightly, while hot - rolled coil production continued to decrease. Rebar production from both blast furnaces and electric furnaces increased. Blast furnace production was 152.38 million tons (up 0.77% month - on - month and down 20.54% year - on - year), and electric furnace production was 29.31 million tons (up 6.35% month - on - month and up 8.76% year - on - year) [13][15][21]. - **开工率**: The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly month - on - month, while the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 78.47% (down 0.20% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 69.123% (up 2.21% month - on - month and down 0.94% year - on - year) [22][26]. - **Profit**: The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded month - on - month. Rebar profit was +42 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 38 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was - 30 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week and down 51 yuan/ton year - on - year) [27][30]. - **Demand**: Rebar demand increased, while hot - rolled coil demand decreased. Rebar apparent consumption was 208.64 million tons (up 2.73% month - on - month and down 4.98% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 298.28 million tons (down 4.39% month - on - month and down 4.46% year - on - year) [31][35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to decline, with both factory and social inventories decreasing. Rebar total inventory was 452.54 million tons (down 5.62% month - on - month and up 12.29% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory reduction expanded slightly, with both factory and social inventories declining. Hot - rolled coil total inventory was 390.72 million tons (down 1.60% month - on - month and up 26.33% year - on - year) [36][41][45]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, commercial housing transactions increased month - on - month, while land transactions decreased month - on - month. In the automotive sector, in November 2025, production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million vehicles respectively, up 5.1% and 3.2% month - on - month and 2.8% and 3.4% year - on - year [46][51]. 03 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased month - on - month. The price index of iron ore was 107.32 (up 2.27% month - on - month and up 5.98% year - on - year). The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2814.7 million tons (down 5.09% month - on - month and up 9.19% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2646.7 million tons (down 2.80% month - on - month and up 23.76% year - on - year) [54][59]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal continued to decline, and the port clearance volume decreased. The daily output of hot metal was 226.55 million tons (down 2.65 million tons month - on - month and down 2.86 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 313.45 million tons (down 1.80% month - on - month and down 3.33% year - on - year) [60][64]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continued to reach new highs, while the iron ore inventory of steel enterprises decreased again. The inventory at 45 ports was 15512.63 million tons (up 0.53% month - on - month and up 4.37% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8723.95 million tons (down 1.25% month - on - month and down 8.86% year - on - year) [65][70]. 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of domestic mines increased slightly month - on - month, and Mongolian coal customs clearance remained at a high level. The operating rate of coking coal mines was 86.62% (up 1.54% month - on - month and down 0.55% year - on - year), and the average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 20.47 million tons (up 9.86% month - on - month and up 212% year - on - year) [72][76]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit of independent coking plants decreased month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. The profit per ton of coke was +16 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 18 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (down 1.97% month - on - month and down 2.42% year - on - year) [80][84]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Port inventory decreased month - on - month, and coking plant inventory remained stable. The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 881.37 million tons (down 0.26% month - on - month and up 0.97% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coking coal was 286.17 million tons (down 6.94% month - on - month and down 4.03% year - on - year) [85][90]. - **Coke Inventory**: Port inventory continued to decline, while coking plant inventory increased. The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 51.9 million tons (up 3.57% month - on - month and up 10.19% year - on - year), and the port inventory of coke was 175.65 million tons (down 3.06% month - on - month and up 5.08% year - on - year) [91][96]. - **Spot Price**: The third round of price cuts for coke has started, and the game between steel and coking enterprises continues. The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1600 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton week - on - week and up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1440 yuan/ton (stable month - on - month and down 170 yuan/ton year - on - year) [97][101]. 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils narrowed slightly, and the 1 - 5 spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils both narrowed slightly. The coil - to - rebar spread continued to narrow, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly [103][107].

Core Viewpoint - The main viewpoint indicates that the soda ash market is likely to maintain a range-bound fluctuation due to a weak balance between increasing supply and improving demand in the fourth quarter [1] Group 1: Supply Dynamics - After the summer maintenance, the supply of soda ash is expected to increase as the fourth quarter enters a high production season, compounded by the anticipated production from Far East Energy's second phase [1] - Both upstream and social inventories are at historically high levels, with delivery warehouse inventories continuing to rise, indicating ongoing accumulation pressure [1] - The cost side shows stability in coal and raw salt prices, but the short-term oversupply situation is unlikely to change, limiting the potential for price rebounds [1] Group 2: Demand Trends - Demand is showing structural differentiation, with rising prices in photovoltaic glass leading to marginal improvements in heavy alkali demand, while light alkali benefits from the arrival of the downstream peak season [1] - Overall downstream demand remains moderate, with companies primarily operating on a need basis and executing orders as necessary [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with pre-holiday shipments and minimal fluctuations in operational rates among production facilities [1] - Some companies are undergoing maintenance, while others are planning to resume operations, contributing to a cautious market outlook [1] - The market is characterized by an overall oversupply, leading to a predominantly range-bound price movement with prices hovering at the bottom [1]