估值判断

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3600点拉锯战!历史重演还是剧本改写?这三大信号定胜负
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-28 05:50
先说说这3600点到底是啥来头。往前数五年,A股三次摸到这附近都歇了脚:2021年年初冲到3731,然后跌了大半年;2023年夏天摸到3418,没站稳又下来 了;这次从3200点爬上来,到3600点附近晃了快俩礼拜,成交量忽高忽低。说白了,这位置不是简单的数字,是多空双方心里的一道坎——有人觉得"前面 套牢盘太多,冲不过去",有人觉得"经济在回暖,这才刚起步",吵来吵去,就成了现在的横盘。 可能有人会说,帮主你净说大道理,我就想知道该咋办。其实中长线投资者压根不用纠结这几百点的波动。帮主2005年刚做记者时,A股在1000点附近晃 悠,当时多少人喊"要跌穿800",结果后来涨到6000点;2018年2400点时,又有人说"要破2000",现在回头看都是低点。真正的机会从来不在"点位准不准", 而在"公司值不值"。现在3600点,有的股票市盈率炒到100倍还在涨,有的破净了还没人要,这时候与其猜点位,不如去翻财报——那些现金流正、分红稳 定、行业在往上走的公司,就算大盘再跌几百点,拿久了也亏不了;反过来,那些靠概念炒起来的,就算大盘涨到4000点,该跌还是得跌。 但咱得明白,点位相同,市场成色可能差远了。202 ...
对话菁英投顾---“跃龙潭”主创张扬
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-07-11 01:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of A-shares due to the end of tariff shocks and the return of low interest rates and risk appetite, emphasizing the importance of timing and style rotation in investment strategies [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on "value stock selection, technical timing, and prioritizing capital safety," focusing on steady investments and capturing opportunities during market corrections [5]. - The advisor emphasizes the importance of timing in investments, advocating for a right-side trading approach that allows for better investor experience [6]. Valuation and Safety Margin - Valuation assessment combines both art and science, relying on financial data and industry trends while also considering market conditions [7]. - Key indicators for judging valuation include historical comparisons, industry benchmarks, and dynamic PE ratios, with a cautious approach to maintaining a safety margin [8]. Stock Selection Strategy - The advisor prefers a bottom-up stock selection strategy, focusing on individual company fundamentals rather than macroeconomic trends [9]. - A good company is defined by reasonable valuation, consistent profit growth exceeding 20%, significant competitive advantages, and strong cash flow [10]. Financial Statement Analysis - Financial statements are crucial for assessing a company's operational status and identifying potential risks, requiring a thorough understanding of historical data [11][12].