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对当前市场的看法:估值不低,但谈泡沫还太早了
3 6 Ke· 2025-07-23 01:40
Core Insights - The article discusses investment philosophies, emphasizing the importance of practical methodologies over abstract theories [2][3] - It introduces the book "Big Money Thinks Small" by Joel Tillinghast, a notable public fund manager, focusing on stock selection strategies [4][5] Investment Methodologies - Tillinghast advocates for a bottom-up stock selection approach, prioritizing company-specific characteristics over macroeconomic factors [6][8] - The article contrasts top-down and bottom-up investment strategies, explaining that top-down approaches start with macroeconomic analysis before narrowing down to specific companies [7] Critique of Macroeconomic Analysis - Tillinghast expresses skepticism towards macroeconomic theories, arguing that they often lack objectivity and scientific validity [9][10] - He highlights the subjective nature of economic models and their inability to consistently predict economic outcomes [11][12][13] Stock Selection Criteria - Tillinghast emphasizes the importance of low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in stock selection, suggesting that lower initial P/E ratios correlate with higher long-term returns [31][33] - Historical data indicates that stocks with initial P/E ratios below 15 yield significantly higher returns over 10 years compared to those with P/E ratios above 25 [33][39] Industry Performance Insights - The article references a study on industry performance from 1900 to 2016, identifying consumer goods and tobacco as historically strong sectors, while shipping and textiles performed poorly [40][41] - It suggests that industries with stable consumer demand tend to yield better investment returns due to brand loyalty and market stability [40] Current Market Observations - The article notes a challenging investment environment in 2025, characterized by rapid style rotation and a lack of sustainable trends [44][46] - It discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on wealth transfer and market dynamics, suggesting that their proliferation could significantly influence global financial systems [46][47]
对话菁英投顾---“跃龙潭”主创张扬
申万宏源证券上海北京西路营业部· 2025-07-11 01:59
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of A-shares due to the end of tariff shocks and the return of low interest rates and risk appetite, emphasizing the importance of timing and style rotation in investment strategies [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on "value stock selection, technical timing, and prioritizing capital safety," focusing on steady investments and capturing opportunities during market corrections [5]. - The advisor emphasizes the importance of timing in investments, advocating for a right-side trading approach that allows for better investor experience [6]. Valuation and Safety Margin - Valuation assessment combines both art and science, relying on financial data and industry trends while also considering market conditions [7]. - Key indicators for judging valuation include historical comparisons, industry benchmarks, and dynamic PE ratios, with a cautious approach to maintaining a safety margin [8]. Stock Selection Strategy - The advisor prefers a bottom-up stock selection strategy, focusing on individual company fundamentals rather than macroeconomic trends [9]. - A good company is defined by reasonable valuation, consistent profit growth exceeding 20%, significant competitive advantages, and strong cash flow [10]. Financial Statement Analysis - Financial statements are crucial for assessing a company's operational status and identifying potential risks, requiring a thorough understanding of historical data [11][12].
市场长期是称重机!兴证全球基金杨世进:所有投资决策都要从风险和收益率角度平衡
券商中国· 2025-07-09 23:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of respecting objective laws and being pragmatic in investment decisions, highlighting the need for thorough research and understanding of company fundamentals to achieve growth returns [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - Yang Shijin adheres to Graham's philosophy that "the market is a weighing machine in the long run," focusing on in-depth research of company fundamentals and growth returns as core investment goals [2][6]. - The investment strategy is characterized by a bottom-up stock selection approach, with a strong emphasis on the company's "moat" [2][6]. Investment Experience and Background - Yang Shijin has over ten years of experience in the investment industry, with a diverse skill set that spans pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, semiconductors, military industry, and new energy sectors [2][4]. - His career began in 2010, focusing on coal industry research, which deepened his market understanding and awareness of cyclical forces [4]. Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the A-share of the Xingquan Multi-Dimensional Value Mixed Securities Investment Fund, managed by Yang Shijin, achieved a return of 9.29%, significantly outperforming the benchmark of -12.72% during a volatile market [5][11]. Investment Decision-Making - Investment decisions are made by balancing risk and return, with a strong emphasis on the importance of entry price; even the best companies can yield poor returns if purchased at high prices [3][8]. - Yang Shijin's investment framework includes assessing the value a company brings to society and customers, growth potential, and competitive barriers [7][10]. Relationship with Investors - Yang Shijin emphasizes the importance of building trust with investors, likening the relationship to a team working together to achieve market gains [3][11]. - He aims to enhance the investment experience through defensive strategies, including balanced diversification and style differentiation [11]. Market Outlook - The investment focus is expected to lean towards technology growth while maintaining appropriate diversification, with an overarching theme of economic recovery and transition to high-quality development [12].