投容大咖啡 a 13 6 ® P 0 . 418 蒋卫华 专注商业本质 以长期视角挖掘成长确定性 ——访永赢基金蒋卫华 蒋卫华将80%以上的精力用于评估目标公司的商业行为对其自身价值的影响。"我们会全面考量公司所 在产业的发展趋势、公司的战略与其产业发展的趋势是否匹配，以及公司是否具有优秀的执行管理团 队。"他解释道，"只有产业趋势、公司战略和管理团队三者高度匹配，才能带来企业长期竞争力的持续 提升与股东回报的稳健增长。" 在蒋卫华的投资框架中，评估商业活动是第一要务，其次是等待合适的市场价格；而宏观经济、流动 性、市场风格等因素的重要程度相对较低。 "市场短期走势难以预测，仅通过分析宏观、政策等来获取收益是'缘木求鱼'。我们通过对行业与公司 精细分析，来挖掘相对确定的增长机会。"蒋卫华称。 ◎记者 王彭 能够穿越周期、持续有所收获的投资者，往往都具有独特的投资理念和坚定的执行力。 在永赢基金权益投资部基金经理蒋卫华看来，投资是一场持久战，需要对商业本质有深刻理解、对价值 创造有坚定信念，以及等待合适价格的耐心。这种扎根于基本面研究的投资理念，正是他在复杂多变的 市场中保持稳健的基石。 深挖能够持续创造价值的 ...

Group 1 - European stock markets show a mixed performance, with the pan-European STOXX 600 index rising slightly by 0.2%, but significant sectoral divergence is evident [2] - Defensive sectors like healthcare and luxury goods are performing well, with companies such as UCB and AstraZeneca driving positive sentiment; the luxury goods sector rebounded nearly 2%, indicating a recovery in high-end consumer expectations [2] - Conversely, banking and energy stocks are underperforming, with banks sensitive to overall economic sentiment and energy stocks impacted by a 2% drop in international oil prices [2] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is heavily influenced by uncertainties from the U.S., particularly the potential government shutdown, which could delay the release of key economic data, including the non-farm payroll report [3] - There are two prevailing views in the market regarding the government shutdown: one suggests a bipartisan agreement will be reached, while the other warns of ongoing risks that could lead to decision-making in an "information vacuum" for the Federal Reserve [3] - Investors are advised to focus on bottom-up stock selection during periods of macro data absence, as individual stocks or sectors can still show positive performance despite overall uncertainty [3]

Group 1 - The investment outlook for Hong Kong and A-shares remains optimistic, with current valuations considered reasonable and Chinese companies benefiting from supportive policies [1] - Stock selection is emphasized over index betting, as some non-index stocks have performed strongly while certain index constituents have underperformed [1] - A bottom-up stock selection approach is adopted, focusing on valuation and structural growth without making index predictions [1] Group 2 - Two categories of stocks are recommended for balancing portfolios: quality growth stocks for long-term capital appreciation and high-dividend income stocks for defensive strength [2] - The decline of "American exceptionalism" and expectations of a weaker dollar are seen as beneficial for the performance of the Asia-Pacific stock market [2] - China is perceived to be on a clear path towards technological development, particularly in building a robust robotics industry ecosystem [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses investment philosophies, emphasizing the importance of practical methodologies over abstract theories [2][3] - It introduces the book "Big Money Thinks Small" by Joel Tillinghast, a notable public fund manager, focusing on stock selection strategies [4][5] Investment Methodologies - Tillinghast advocates for a bottom-up stock selection approach, prioritizing company-specific characteristics over macroeconomic factors [6][8] - The article contrasts top-down and bottom-up investment strategies, explaining that top-down approaches start with macroeconomic analysis before narrowing down to specific companies [7] Critique of Macroeconomic Analysis - Tillinghast expresses skepticism towards macroeconomic theories, arguing that they often lack objectivity and scientific validity [9][10] - He highlights the subjective nature of economic models and their inability to consistently predict economic outcomes [11][12][13] Stock Selection Criteria - Tillinghast emphasizes the importance of low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios in stock selection, suggesting that lower initial P/E ratios correlate with higher long-term returns [31][33] - Historical data indicates that stocks with initial P/E ratios below 15 yield significantly higher returns over 10 years compared to those with P/E ratios above 25 [33][39] Industry Performance Insights - The article references a study on industry performance from 1900 to 2016, identifying consumer goods and tobacco as historically strong sectors, while shipping and textiles performed poorly [40][41] - It suggests that industries with stable consumer demand tend to yield better investment returns due to brand loyalty and market stability [40] Current Market Observations - The article notes a challenging investment environment in 2025, characterized by rapid style rotation and a lack of sustainable trends [44][46] - It discusses the potential impact of stablecoins on wealth transfer and market dynamics, suggesting that their proliferation could significantly influence global financial systems [46][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recovery of A-shares due to the end of tariff shocks and the return of low interest rates and risk appetite, emphasizing the importance of timing and style rotation in investment strategies [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy centers on "value stock selection, technical timing, and prioritizing capital safety," focusing on steady investments and capturing opportunities during market corrections [5]. - The advisor emphasizes the importance of timing in investments, advocating for a right-side trading approach that allows for better investor experience [6]. Valuation and Safety Margin - Valuation assessment combines both art and science, relying on financial data and industry trends while also considering market conditions [7]. - Key indicators for judging valuation include historical comparisons, industry benchmarks, and dynamic PE ratios, with a cautious approach to maintaining a safety margin [8]. Stock Selection Strategy - The advisor prefers a bottom-up stock selection strategy, focusing on individual company fundamentals rather than macroeconomic trends [9]. - A good company is defined by reasonable valuation, consistent profit growth exceeding 20%, significant competitive advantages, and strong cash flow [10]. Financial Statement Analysis - Financial statements are crucial for assessing a company's operational status and identifying potential risks, requiring a thorough understanding of historical data [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of respecting objective laws and being pragmatic in investment decisions, highlighting the need for thorough research and understanding of company fundamentals to achieve growth returns [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - Yang Shijin adheres to Graham's philosophy that "the market is a weighing machine in the long run," focusing on in-depth research of company fundamentals and growth returns as core investment goals [2][6]. - The investment strategy is characterized by a bottom-up stock selection approach, with a strong emphasis on the company's "moat" [2][6]. Investment Experience and Background - Yang Shijin has over ten years of experience in the investment industry, with a diverse skill set that spans pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals, semiconductors, military industry, and new energy sectors [2][4]. - His career began in 2010, focusing on coal industry research, which deepened his market understanding and awareness of cyclical forces [4]. Performance Metrics - As of June 30, 2025, the A-share of the Xingquan Multi-Dimensional Value Mixed Securities Investment Fund, managed by Yang Shijin, achieved a return of 9.29%, significantly outperforming the benchmark of -12.72% during a volatile market [5][11]. Investment Decision-Making - Investment decisions are made by balancing risk and return, with a strong emphasis on the importance of entry price; even the best companies can yield poor returns if purchased at high prices [3][8]. - Yang Shijin's investment framework includes assessing the value a company brings to society and customers, growth potential, and competitive barriers [7][10]. Relationship with Investors - Yang Shijin emphasizes the importance of building trust with investors, likening the relationship to a team working together to achieve market gains [3][11]. - He aims to enhance the investment experience through defensive strategies, including balanced diversification and style differentiation [11]. Market Outlook - The investment focus is expected to lean towards technology growth while maintaining appropriate diversification, with an overarching theme of economic recovery and transition to high-quality development [12].