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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250806
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 01:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The short - term driving factors for the soybean meal market are the expected tightening of future supply and cost - push. The price of soybean meal futures remains prone to rise and hard to fall [6]. - The overall strength of the oil and fat sector, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to strengthen. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives market sentiment, and short - term palm oil futures prices are greatly affected by market sentiment [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: within a week, the view is "oscillating"; medium - term: two weeks to one month, the view is "oscillating"; intraday view is "oscillating strongly", and the reference view is also "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The high and persistent Brazilian soybean premium has solidified the import cost structure. The domestic soybean futures price trend is stronger than that of US soybeans. The driving factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6][8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: within a week, the view is "oscillating"; medium - term: two weeks to one month, the view is "oscillating"; intraday view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: The overall strength of the oil and fat sector, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to strengthen. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives market sentiment. The short - term price is greatly affected by market sentiment, and factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also play a role [7][8][9]. Other Oils - **Soybean Oil 2509**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating". The reference view is "oscillating weakly". Core factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8].