Core Viewpoint - In October, London spot gold experienced volatility, ultimately rising by 3.76% to $4002.69 per ounce, with an intraday peak of $4381.484 per ounce, influenced by multiple factors including U.S. political instability and trade tensions with China [1] Group 1: Market Influences - The U.S. government shutdown highlighted political polarization, weakening the long-term credibility of the dollar and U.S. assets [1] - The ongoing government closure and negative economic forecasts strengthened market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The announcement of a 100% additional tariff on Chinese imports by the U.S. President escalated trade tensions, increasing global economic uncertainty [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Developments - A joint statement from Ukraine regarding the Russia-Ukraine war indicated a softening of positions among Ukraine and major European countries, contributing to a reduction in geopolitical tensions [1] - Progress in U.S.-China trade talks and a meeting between the two nations' leaders further alleviated market risk aversion [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile with no clear bullish factors for gold, potentially leading to a weak performance until the end of the year [2] - Investors are advised to adopt a wait-and-see approach or consider buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices opened at $4000, dipped to around $3962, and then stabilized back at the $4000 mark, indicating a choppy trading environment [4] - The focus for the week includes non-farm employment data, which could influence market movements [4]

来源：市场资讯 11月3日，上月伦敦现货黄金冲高回落，月度上涨3.76%至4002.69美元/盎司，盘中价格创出历史新高 4381.484美元/盎司。 另外，11月1日，财政部、税务总局发布《关于黄金有关税收政策的公告》，其中一条提及投资性黄金 能享受增值税即征即退，但再销售时只能开普通发票，这导致下游没法抵扣进项税，这也就意味着投资 购买实物黄金税负上升，导致实物黄金投资短期受抑，需要注意。 撰稿：李琪 从业资格：F3046227 交易咨询资格：Z0016145 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性、可靠性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供参考，并不构成任何具体产品、业务的推介以及相关品种的操作依据和建议，投资 者据此作出的任何投资决策自负盈亏，与本公司和作者无关。 10月伦敦现货金银受多重因素影响，经历了较为动荡和充满争议的一个月。利多因素，一是，美政府持 续"停摆"，暴露出美国政治的高度极化与功能障碍，这削弱了美元和美国资产的长期信用与吸引力。二 是，美政府关门持续，经济和就业的不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral with carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market. The basis shows a slight discount to futures, also neutral. The inventory situation is neutral, and the price is trading below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a slightly bullish trend. Overall, due to the long - term positive impact of carbon neutrality on aluminum prices and the new US steel and aluminum tariffs, the aluminum price is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are considered neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and a soft real - estate market [2]. - The basis is - 25, with the spot at 20680, indicating a discount to futures, neutral [2]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory decreased by 765 tons to 127,734 tons, regarded as neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward, neutral [2]. - The main net positions are long but the long positions are decreasing, slightly bullish [2]. - In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is positive for aluminum prices, but with the US expanding steel and aluminum tariffs, the aluminum price will move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; geopolitical disturbances between Russia and Ukraine affect Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. - **Negative factors**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - **Logic**: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: Shanghai's spot price was 70,770, down 375; Nanchu's was 70,690, down 450; Changjiang's was 70,870 [4]. - **Inventory**: Warehouse receipts were 70,798, up 699; LME inventory was 74,750, down 425; SHFE inventory (daily) was 136,300, up 29,728 [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table of aluminum shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024. In 2018, the supply - demand balance was - 47.61 million tons; in 2019, it was - 68.61 million tons; in 2020, it was 1.3 million tons; in 2021, it was - 14.2 million tons; in 2022, it was - 29.98 million tons; in 2023, it was - 4.31 million tons; and in 2024, it is expected to be 15 million tons [20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, central bank policies, and supply - demand dynamics across different industries [1][2][3] - Different commodities show diverse trends, with some in an upward or downward movement, while others are in a state of oscillation [1][3][4] - Policy expectations, especially the "anti - involution" policy, have a significant impact on the prices of some commodities [18][19][27] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in the Russia - Ukraine conflict led to a correction in the market's previous pricing of geopolitical easing. It is recommended to hold a long straddle strategy of out - of - the - money options for hedging and enter medium - term short positions after the volatility increases [1] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: On Friday, influenced by the news of the US intensifying sanctions on Iranian oil exports, oil product futures strengthened. The inventory pressure is showing signs of relief, and the fundamentals are relatively bullish [21] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized recently. The domestic market faces supply increases, and the high - base - spread pattern may continue. It is expected to remain in a state of oscillation [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, the US dollar declined, and precious metals rose sharply. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in an oscillatory range [2] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The copper price rose last Friday. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is high, driving up the prices of precious metals and risk assets. There is resistance at 79,500 yuan for Shanghai copper [3] - **Aluminum**: The price of Shanghai aluminum is oscillating strongly. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally increasing, and the inventory is likely to remain low. It is testing the resistance in the range of 20,800 - 21,000 yuan [4] - **Zinc**: The SMM zinc social inventory decreased slightly. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September supports the price. The fundamental pattern of increasing supply and weak demand remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - term [7] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound. The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, but there is still uncertainty in the market. It is advisable to actively enter short positions [9] - **Tin**: The tin price recovered last Friday. Overseas tin inventory is slowly increasing, and the domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased. Short - term long positions can be held based on the MA60 moving average [10] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium futures price broke below 80,000 yuan. The market trading is active, and the overall inventory is basically flat. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and risk control should be done well [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate [12] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures continue to oscillate. The price of N - type polysilicon has risen. The market is focusing on the terminal's acceptance of component prices. The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted [13] - **Iron and Steel Products**: - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded on Friday night. The rebar apparent demand increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The hot - rolled coil demand improved, and the inventory also increased. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low. The market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [14] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures oscillated last week. The supply is strong, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [15] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices of coke and coking coal oscillated upward last night. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The short - term volatility is large, and the downside space is relatively small [16][17] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon oscillated weakly. The demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The supply of both is increasing, and the prices are affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [18][19] Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was confirmed last week, the urea futures price continued to fall. The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is greatly affected by market sentiment and exports [24] - **Methanol**: The methanol import volume decreased slightly. The actual situation is weak, but the expectation is strong. Attention should be paid to the overseas device situation and market sentiment in the fourth quarter [25] - **Styrene**: The styrene futures continue to consolidate. The cost side oscillates weakly, and the supply - demand is in a wide - balance state. The fundamentals still have a dragging effect on the price [26] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene is boosted by positive supply - demand factors. The polyethylene supply pressure remains, and the demand support is limited. The polypropylene supply has short - term support, but the downstream demand recovery is slow [27] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high supply and insufficient demand. The caustic soda price is oscillating strongly in the short - term, but the long - term supply pressure is still high [28] - **PX & PTA**: The PX price rose last week, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, and the PX supply - demand is expected to improve [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rebounded from 4,400 to 4,500. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The market is expected to improve in the medium - term [30] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the "crushing for oil" pattern is emerging. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of next year. The market is expected to be cautiously bullish in the medium - to - long - term [35] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US biofuel policy and crop conditions affect the prices. The Indonesian government's policies have an impact on palm oil. The prices of soybean oil and palm oil can be considered for buying on dips [36] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the biofuel field is expected to increase. The domestic rapeseed supply - demand is tight, and the futures price has room to rise [37] - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure due to auction supply and weak demand. The price of imported soybeans is relatively strong [38] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may adjust upward in the short - term. The domestic corn market is expected to be bearish due to good weather and low auction成交率 [39] - **Hogs**: The hog price is slightly stronger on the weekend. The central reserve frozen pork purchase is expected to have an impact on the market. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term [40] - **Eggs**: The egg price rebounded slightly on the weekend. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, which may support the price next year [41] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillates narrowly. The domestic cotton market has concerns about new - cotton pre - sales, but the impact may be limited. The Zhengzhou cotton can be bought on dips [42] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price oscillates, and the domestic sugar market has relatively light inventory pressure. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43] - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates. The market is focusing on the new - season output estimate, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - **Timber**: The timber futures price oscillates. The domestic supply may remain low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - **Pulp**: The pulp price oscillates downward. The domestic port inventory is high, and the demand is average. It is advisable to wait and see or adopt an interval - oscillation strategy [46] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is bullish, with high trading volume. The external macro - liquidity is stable, and the risk preference is strong. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bond futures price oscillates downward. The overseas bond yield rise and the strong A - share market put pressure on the treasury bond price. The yield curve is expected to steepen [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to capacity expansion control by carbon neutrality, weak downstream demand, and a continued sluggish real estate market, along with short - term volatile macro - sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a neutral situation with the spot price at 20470 and a basis of - 55, indicating a discount to the futures [2]. - The inventory of SHFE aluminum increased by 1737 tons to 117527 tons last week, presenting a neutral state [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, showing a bearish trend [2]. - The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish bias [2]. - In the long - term, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry and is bullish for aluminum prices. With a mix of bullish and bearish factors, aluminum prices will fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall situation of aluminum is a mix of bullish and bearish factors, and its price is expected to move in a volatile manner [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be bullish**: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; and there is a possibility of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products has been cancelled [3]. Daily Summary - **Spot prices**: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; and the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand balance of aluminum in China has fluctuated. There were supply shortages in 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023, with shortages of 47.61, 68.61, 14.2, 29.98, and 4.31 million tons respectively. There was a small supply surplus of 1.3 million tons in 2020, and a surplus of 15 million tons is expected in 2024 [24].