东莞证券认为，上周三，A股市场三大指数涨跌不一，从资金面来看，沪深两市全天成交额超过2万亿 元，较上一个交易日缩量逾千亿元。从技术分析角度看，上证指数技术面呈现多空胶着状态，但技术形 态上仍处于多头区间，支撑位点位暂未跌破，短期需关注压力位突破情况及量能变化。近期A股市场连 续上涨，行情明显呈现出流动性驱动的特征。随着年底集中冲量阶段过去，后续资金流入节奏已有放缓 迹象，预计年初市场可能仍会出现一定波动。展望后市，春节前市场整体仍具备一定的上行空间，短期 若有调整可视为逢低布局的机会。当前阶段，此前制约市场的主要风险因素已较前期明显缓和，市场情 绪有望保持积极，风险偏好或将继续维持在较高水平。 中原证券认为，上周三，上证指数全天窄幅震荡；深证成指、创业板指早盘高开低走，随后震荡回升， 之后回落下探，午后一度回升，随后再度回落。盘中航天航空、软件开发、有色金属以及互联网服务等 行业表现较好；医药商业、贵金属、船舶制造以及电池等行业表现较弱。市场普遍预期美联储2026年将 延续降息周期，全球流动性环境趋于宽松。近期人民币汇率走强，进一步提升了人民币资产的吸引力， 有利于吸引资金回流。预计上证指数围绕4000点附近 ...

Group 1 - In 2025, public funds showed strong enthusiasm for self-purchasing non-monetary products, with 118 fund companies executing over 7,000 self-purchases totaling 8.7 billion yuan [1][2] - The self-purchase of bond funds saw a significant increase of over 200%, while mixed funds reversed from net redemption to net subscription, and stock funds maintained stable self-purchase levels [1][2][3] - The net subscription amount for non-monetary funds reached 8.7 billion yuan in 2025, compared to only 3.5 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong recovery in investor confidence [3][5] Group 2 - The A-share market exhibited a W-shaped trend in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 18.41%, 29.87%, and 49.57% respectively [2] - The total trading amount for public fund self-purchases in 2025 was 337.51 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 109.53 billion yuan in 2024, despite a higher number of self-purchase instances in 2024 [2][3] - The top three categories for self-purchase amounts in non-monetary funds were passive index bond funds, equity-mixed funds, and passive index funds, with the highest self-purchase amount being 1.8 billion yuan for E Fund's index fund [4][5] Group 3 - In 2025, 22 fund management companies had self-purchase amounts exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top two being Invesco Great Wall Fund and ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, at 2.774 billion yuan and 1.701 billion yuan respectively [5] - Fund companies are increasingly choosing to implement self-purchases at the time of fund contract effectiveness, aligning their interests with investors [6] - The regulatory changes introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission in May 2025 are expected to encourage more fund managers to engage in self-purchase behavior, enhancing long-term performance focus [6][7] Group 4 - Looking ahead to 2026, the market is expected to achieve further balance, with corporate earnings and liquidity driving market dynamics [7][8] - The investment community anticipates that the stock market will continue to experience a "slow bull" trend, with structural opportunities becoming more pronounced [7] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets are likely to be driven by liquidity and risk appetite, with potential for wide fluctuations due to accumulated gains and rising volatility [8]

核心观点 我们预计2025年四季度GDP同比增速为4.6%，经济运行呈现生产偏强、需求修复偏温和的格局：供给端，工业生产延续稳增长态势，对增长形成主要支 撑；需求端，12月社零同比预计小幅回升，以旧换新资金前置与元旦"拼假"效应对消费构成托底，但汽车在销量同比下滑与年末加大折扣导致的量价双压 下仍是主要拖累。投资端仍处低位，制造业投资相对有韧性，但基建偏弱、地产继续承压，制约内需弹性。外需保持韧性，出口增速预计维持正增长。价 格层面，CPI温和、PPI负值收敛但通胀修复仍偏缓。金融数据仍显示信用扩张偏弱，M1、M2增速小幅回落。综合来看，一方面，12月经济活动相较上 月总体加快，12月随着内外需修复及年底各行业年度收官冲刺，有望延续向上态势，顺利完成全年5%左右增长目标难度不大；另一方面，蓄势待春归， 为2026年一季度开门红蓄势。 基于以上判断，大类资产方面，权益市场，预计流动性驱动下A股将在2026年继续走强，低波红利与科技成长交织的结构化行情，出口出海链条受益外需 改善同样具备机会。债券市场，预计10年期国债收益率在1.5-2%区间宽幅震荡。 内容摘要 >>生产：工业生产引领增长，蓄力一季度开门红 我们 ...

2026年中国经济预计增长4.9%，投资端回升，广义基建投资提速，制造业投资维持6%，房地产投资降 幅收窄。消费受补贴政策影响有望获支撑，出口增量或来自美国宽松政策带动的需求。物价方面，CPI 预计小幅增长0.5%，PPI 降幅收窄至-0.9%。 政策上，财政政策延续扩张，增量资金比2025年多6200亿元；货币政策保持结构性宽松，引导资金流向 科技创新等关键领域。 从海外来看，短期中美关系进入相对稳定期，中长期在关键领域呈现"主动脱钩 + 被动去风险"态势。 2025年底至2026年底，美联储或开启4次降息，我们预计明年下半年全球流动性宽松周期到来，流动性 或从美向非美地区转移。 大类资产配置展望 债券：立足防御、寻求赔率。利率运行中枢或小幅抬升，10年期利率预计在1.7%~2%区间波动，30年 期在1.9%~2.3%区间。短久期利率贴近政策利率，可侧重短久期优质信用债和中久期利率债防御，等 待长久期利率做多机会。 国内经济预计平稳增长，通胀逐步改善。 2026年国内经济预计平稳增长，通胀将逐步改善，企业盈利有望在2025年拐点后继续上行。海外全球流 动性宽松可期，中美关系短期缓和但长期波动加大，在中美AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market dynamics driven by liquidity and the potential limitations of this bull market, drawing parallels with Japan's past market behavior during the 1990s [2][14][58]. Market Performance - Since the policy shift on "September 24," the domestic market has rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 47% and 50% from their lows, respectively [2]. - The current valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a dynamic PE of 11.6, which is above the historical average, indicating that certain high-growth sectors may no longer be considered cheap [2][6]. Valuation Comparisons - While the Hang Seng Index appears cheaper than the S&P 500's dynamic valuation of 22.3, this comparison lacks context regarding profitability and liquidity conditions [6][8]. - The article highlights that the median PE of leading Chinese tech companies is 17.8, which is higher than their median net profit margin of 9.6%, suggesting potential overvaluation in some sectors [6][8]. Economic Indicators - Post-August, domestic demand indicators have weakened, and recent financial credit data supports the view that the credit cycle may be turning downward in the fourth quarter [9][11]. - The article notes that risk premiums in traditional sectors like finance and real estate have dropped below historical averages, while new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals are stabilizing around historical means [9][11]. Historical Context: Japan's Bull Markets - The article analyzes Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s, which were characterized by significant government stimulus and external economic trends, yet ultimately faced limitations due to structural issues and market sentiment [14][58]. - Each of Japan's bull markets was initiated by substantial fiscal stimulus, with the first round starting in 1992, leading to a 54% rebound over 12.8 months [19][33]. Investor Behavior - During Japan's first bull market, individual investors' participation surged, while foreign investors' share declined, indicating a shift in market sentiment [28][30]. - The second bull market saw a similar pattern, with individual investor enthusiasm waning as foreign investor participation increased [40][42]. Conclusion and Implications - The article concludes that while liquidity can drive market rallies, without substantial improvements in the underlying economy, these rallies may face ceilings [58]. - It suggests that to break through current market limitations, structural policy changes focusing on technology and income expectations are necessary, rather than relying solely on traditional fiscal measures [67].

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with the China Securities Xinhua National Brand Index closing at 2029.92 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 0.50%, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.43% and the brand index decreased by 0.38% [2] Strong Performers - Several constituent stocks showed strong performance last week, with Kingsoft Office rising by 18.09%, Sunshine Power increasing by 15.03%, and Tigermed, Xilitai, and China National Pharmaceutical Group rising by 13.93%, 10.80%, and 7.87% respectively [2] - Other notable performers included Salt Lake Industry, Guocera Materials, and iFlytek, which all saw increases of over 6% [2] Year-to-Date Performance - Since the beginning of the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has surged by 224.62%, followed by Sunshine Power at 181.89%, and Yiwei Lithium Energy and Zhaoyi Innovation with increases of 82.17% and 74.36% respectively [3] - Other companies such as Lanke Technology and Wuwei Biological have also shown significant gains of over 60% [3] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market volatility has increased significantly since October, with major growth sectors experiencing corrections [4] - Investment perspectives suggest that despite previous gains, quality companies' fluctuations may present buying opportunities [4] - The market is expected to transition from liquidity-driven growth to fundamentals-driven growth, with a strong likelihood of economic recovery supported by ongoing policy efforts [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market dynamics are shifting from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven, with a focus on the potential for improvement in the underlying economic conditions [2][3] - The A-share market is currently in a phase where it has a solid bottom and potential for upward movement, supported by increased margin trading and long-term capital allocation [2] - The upcoming transition in liquidity sources, particularly from foreign capital inflows and domestic "deposit migration," is expected to further support the A-share market [3] Group 2 - The fundamentals of corporate earnings are showing signs of improvement, with a stabilization of ROE and a structural enhancement in performance indicators [3] - The end of the deleveraging cycle from 2020 to 2024 indicates a shift in corporate confidence towards a more positive outlook [3] - Various factors, including a weak dollar, global manufacturing recovery, and advancements in AI and new industries, are expected to sustain structural opportunities in the Chinese equity market [4]

Group 1 - The core index of the Xinhua National Brand Project reported 1956.62 points, with several constituent stocks rising against the market trend [1] - Shanghai Jahwa increased by 9.42%, leading the gains among constituent stocks, followed by Changbaishan at 7.19% and Darentang at 5.34% [1] - The overall market saw declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 4.99% [1] Group 2 - Since the second half of the year, Zhongji Xuchuang has risen by 156.40%, ranking first in gains, followed by Sunshine Power at 114.27% [2] - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum, with liquidity driving potential growth and fundamental support gradually increasing [2] - Domestic interest rates remain low, and overseas liquidity is expected to remain loose, indicating continued capital allocation towards Chinese equity assets [2] Group 3 - Recent market adjustments are attributed to a decline in global market risk appetite and a shift in investment style towards defensive sectors [3] - The current market environment is characterized by high levels, increased uncertainty, and a slowdown in previous catalysts, leading to cautious trading [3] - Investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in sectors with higher investment certainty, particularly in electronics, new energy, new consumption, and real estate [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing fluctuations with active sector rotation, and investors are focused on future trends and positioning strategies [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The market adjustment is primarily due to excessive enthusiasm for chasing gains and severe structural differentiation in the market [2][3] - The current market is characterized by abundant liquidity under policy support, suggesting a "slow bull" market framework [4] - The market has been in a phase of gradual upward movement since September 24 of last year, with each phase consisting of "upward, fluctuation" patterns [4][5] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment environment is becoming more complex due to the structural characteristics of the current market, requiring careful selection of sectors to avoid situations where indices rise but individual stocks do not [6] - The company is focusing on two categories for investment: performance reversal and high prosperity sectors, with a strong emphasis on marginal improvement [7] Group 3: Sector Outlook - The company is optimistic about sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, lithium batteries, computing power, robotics, and certain cyclical materials [8] - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is expected to see significant growth as more products are approved and enter the market, supported by favorable domestic policies and overseas demand [9] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - The market is anticipated to experience an expansion of high prosperity sectors, with improvements in industrial and consumer sectors becoming more evident [10] - By mid-2026, the overall A-share market may witness its first effective rebound in profitability in five years, with a potential for double-digit growth in net profit attributable to shareholders [10][11] - The active management funds have shown a strong performance, with 79.2% of them achieving positive returns in the first half of the year, indicating a robust market environment [12]

Group 1 - The current market is primarily driven by liquidity, indicating a structural bull market, but micro liquidity alone is not sufficient for sustained performance, as potential market corrections could lead to liquidity withdrawal through fund redemptions [1] - There are two potential directions for the Chinese stock market: 1) a valuation-driven bull market with increased volatility in high-valuation sectors, leading to risks; 2) an improvement in macro fundamentals and corporate earnings, allowing the market to expand from main sectors to others, facilitating a high-low switch [1] - Recent data shows a weakening economic momentum, with retail sales growth slowing compared to July, and a decline in the housing market, suggesting that the path to fundamental improvement has certain thresholds [3] Group 2 - The expectation of a preventive rate cut by the Federal Reserve could lead to a recovery in overseas demand, potentially benefiting export-oriented sectors in China [3] - The current domestic economic pressure is viewed as a normal consequence of the "anti-involution" path, which aims to control supply-side expansion to restore prices and profits, followed by demand recovery [3] - Short-term market performance is influenced by policy rollbacks and supply-side policies, while structural improvements may exist in the export chain; long-term, price-sensitive upstream resources are expected to benefit first from price recovery [4] Group 3 - The core variable for maintaining a liquidity-driven market or transitioning to a profit-driven one is the pace of fundamental improvement; despite short-term pressures, there are supportive factors in the market [4] - Recommendations include focusing on sectors driven by funds (technology, anti-involution) and those supported by fundamentals/policies, with specific attention to chip ETFs and photovoltaic ETFs [4]