而且这还不只是国家的选择。身边人换理财的换理财，抛股票的抛股票，最后都盯上黄金、实物资产。我朋友去银行买金条，还得排队拿 号。大家都怕一件事：钱放着贬值，拿着票子不如拿东西。 你有没有发现，现在说起美债这东西，大家的语气都变了。以前是"全球最安全的资产现在是"谁还敢多拿"。一个细节摆这儿：中国在2024 年一年里就减持了573亿美元美债，这是美国财政部自己公布的数字。你想想，连美国前几大债主都在削减仓位，这种场景要搁十年前谁信 啊。 为啥呢。说白了就是信用透支。美国债务总规模到2024年底已经飙到34万亿美元，美联储自己官网数据都能查。每年财政赤字两三万亿起 步，还要在国会搞债务上限的政治表演，时不时吵到差点关门。你要是持有它的债，就得心里打鼓：他到底还得起还不起。 以前利率低的时候，美债还有点吸引力。收益虽然不高，但胜在稳。现在美国加息到顶点，短期利率拉到5%以上，可一边是利息成本暴 涨，一边是财政缺口越拉越大，这东西的"安全"标签还能撑多久？ 我查了下国际清算银行的数据，2024年美国利息支出已经突破1万亿美元，光利息就占财政收入接近20%。这账摊在谁头上？债主心里最清 楚。 市场的反应也很直接。你看，2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market has reached its peak in the first half of this year, with significant participation from younger investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Context - The rise in gold prices is seen as a reaction to the increasing debt levels and low interest rates globally, where governments continue to borrow despite rising debt [15][21][22][30]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, global debt has surged, with total debt reaching $324 trillion, surpassing global GDP by 332.7% [38][39]. - The trend of low interest rates persists, with the U.S. experiencing a decline in rates despite rising debt levels, which has been a significant driver of economic growth [23][24][25]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold price has recently surged, breaking the $3700 per ounce mark, reflecting a growing fear among investors and a departure from traditional valuation metrics [10][11][12]. - The demand for gold has been driven by central banks, which purchased a record 1082 tons in 2022, indicating a shift in investment strategies [92][93]. - The traditional three-factor model for gold pricing, which includes actual interest rates and inflation expectations, has begun to fail, leading to unpredictable price movements [94][95][96]. Group 3: Future Implications - As governments continue to expand their debt, the need for "hard assets" like gold is expected to increase, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [50][85]. - The expectation of further monetary easing and potential negative interest rates could exacerbate the situation, making gold an attractive hedge against currency devaluation [80][81][82]. - The ongoing purchasing behavior of central banks indicates a strategic shift that could redefine the value of gold in the financial landscape [100].

作者 | 城北徐公 数据支持 | 勾股大数据（www.gogudata.com） 本轮黄金牛市目前为止的最高潮，是今年上半年那一波，很多人都吃到了肉。 4月份的时候，还出现了一个很难评的新闻：黄金热潮从"大妈专属"到"年轻人战场"。 有95后贷款60万，有人抵押房子套现，甚至有00后用信用卡、网贷凑钱，去炒黄金…… 而那波行情，恰好中止于4月底。 当菜市场大妈都在讨论股票时，聪明的投资者已经开始准备离场。 这句话的含金量还在上升。 不过黄金还是有些特殊。 从那之后，即便你继续加仓，至少不会亏钱。 金价的暴走，已经完全不能用过往的常识去看待。 它的背后，是这整个时代的失控。 终极困局 还是那句话，做多黄金，某种程度上就是在做空信用货币。 试想，一家市值100亿的上市公司，负债10亿，贷款利率5%。 10年后，这家公司体量上升至200亿，负债100亿。 按道理来说，此时的利率，应该要比10年前高。 经过四个月震荡后，8月底开始，金价再度开始飙升，一度突破3700美元/盎司，涨幅近10%。 越涨越怕，越怕越涨。 熟悉的感觉又回来了。 因为负债率越高，银行借给你钱的风险越高。 但现实是，这个世界上最庞大的企业，也就是 ...

于是一番扭捏拉扯，最后美帝靠着手段高明，拳头过硬，终于干死了金本位裸奔。虽然勾搭了一个石油，看起来好像锚定了石油，但问题是，产油多少 跟美元的发行量没有一毛钱的关系。实际上美元并没有锚，你以为是美债？呵呵，笑死了，美债现在余额37万亿美元，美元到底发了多少？美联储敢给 人查查吗？ 今年早些时候，马斯克异想天开，想去查美联储的账，结果最后自己都被踢出白宫，跟懂王在网上隔空互骂，感情破裂。虽然彼此也传出了有求和的意 思，但信任肯定是没有了，特马在政坛上永远回不到从前了。 每个大周期都是一个赖账的循环，周而复始。 当你弄明白这个道理，就会明白，在信用货币时代，哪里有什么通缩。遇到短暂的通缩周期，这就是上天给你捡钱的机会。这个时候如果选择了恐惧， 真的只能说一句，祝你幸福。 印钞机人人都有，但无脑无节制的印钞必然会直接干崩货币信用，结果就是本币没有人愿意用，国际结算中，别人不收你咋办？ 70年代美国好莱坞的明星甚至都开始耍大牌不收美元了，更受欢迎的是当时的南非兰特。因为美元不能直接兑换黄金了，但兰特可以啊，毕竟地球上的 黄金一半多都埋在南非地底下呢。 只不过后来FBI出面，发出著名的FBI WARNING，不肯接受美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between gold, the US dollar, and the Triffin Dilemma, emphasizing that the current crisis of the dollar presents investment opportunities in gold as a hedge against currency instability [5][24]. Group 1: The Lake House Agreement - The so-called "Lake House Agreement" suggests that the US may be attempting to engage in a financial war globally, although no official text exists [4]. - The agreement includes demands for trade partners to appreciate their currencies against the dollar and to classify countries as allies or adversaries for tariff purposes [4]. - The challenges of implementing such an agreement are acknowledged, particularly regarding its feasibility with allies and trade partners [4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Currency - The article traces the origins of credit currency back to 17th century England, where goldsmiths began issuing receipts that evolved into banknotes [6][8]. - The establishment of the Bank of England marked a significant shift in government financing, allowing for a stable source of revenue beyond taxes and loans from merchants [9]. - The article highlights the inherent monopoly of credit currency, where only the most trusted credit can be widely accepted [9]. Group 3: The Nature of Government Credit - The article discusses the paradox of government credit: if a government is too weak, its currency may be replaced; if too strong, it risks losing credibility [11]. - Historical examples from China illustrate how excessive issuance of paper currency during times of war led to loss of public trust and eventual economic collapse [19][20]. Group 4: The Triffin Dilemma - The Triffin Dilemma describes the conflict between the need for the US to run trade deficits to supply the world with dollars and the need to maintain the dollar's value [25][27]. - The article notes that the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a significant shift, allowing the US to print money without the constraint of gold reserves [27][28]. - The ongoing challenge for the US is to balance international obligations with domestic economic stability, a task complicated by political pressures [29]. Group 5: Gold as a Hedge - The article concludes that gold serves as a "vote of no confidence" against fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, as central banks increase their gold reserves amid currency crises [32][34]. - It argues that while credit currency is a significant innovation, it requires a balanced government that is neither too strong nor too weak to maintain public trust [35]. - The potential for digital currencies to replace gold as a stable value store is also mentioned, indicating a shift in the future of monetary systems [35].