而且这还不只是国家的选择。身边人换理财的换理财，抛股票的抛股票，最后都盯上黄金、实物资产。我朋友去银行买金条，还得排队拿 号。大家都怕一件事：钱放着贬值，拿着票子不如拿东西。 你有没有发现，现在说起美债这东西，大家的语气都变了。以前是"全球最安全的资产现在是"谁还敢多拿"。一个细节摆这儿：中国在2024 年一年里就减持了573亿美元美债，这是美国财政部自己公布的数字。你想想，连美国前几大债主都在削减仓位，这种场景要搁十年前谁信 啊。 为啥呢。说白了就是信用透支。美国债务总规模到2024年底已经飙到34万亿美元，美联储自己官网数据都能查。每年财政赤字两三万亿起 步，还要在国会搞债务上限的政治表演，时不时吵到差点关门。你要是持有它的债，就得心里打鼓：他到底还得起还不起。 以前利率低的时候，美债还有点吸引力。收益虽然不高，但胜在稳。现在美国加息到顶点，短期利率拉到5%以上，可一边是利息成本暴 涨，一边是财政缺口越拉越大，这东西的"安全"标签还能撑多久？ 我查了下国际清算银行的数据，2024年美国利息支出已经突破1万亿美元，光利息就占财政收入接近20%。这账摊在谁头上？债主心里最清 楚。 市场的反应也很直接。你看，2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market has reached its peak in the first half of this year, with significant participation from younger investors, indicating a shift in market dynamics [5][6][7]. Group 1: Economic Context - The rise in gold prices is seen as a reaction to the increasing debt levels and low interest rates globally, where governments continue to borrow despite rising debt [15][21][22][30]. - Since the 2008 financial crisis, global debt has surged, with total debt reaching $324 trillion, surpassing global GDP by 332.7% [38][39]. - The trend of low interest rates persists, with the U.S. experiencing a decline in rates despite rising debt levels, which has been a significant driver of economic growth [23][24][25]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold price has recently surged, breaking the $3700 per ounce mark, reflecting a growing fear among investors and a departure from traditional valuation metrics [10][11][12]. - The demand for gold has been driven by central banks, which purchased a record 1082 tons in 2022, indicating a shift in investment strategies [92][93]. - The traditional three-factor model for gold pricing, which includes actual interest rates and inflation expectations, has begun to fail, leading to unpredictable price movements [94][95][96]. Group 3: Future Implications - As governments continue to expand their debt, the need for "hard assets" like gold is expected to increase, suggesting a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices [50][85]. - The expectation of further monetary easing and potential negative interest rates could exacerbate the situation, making gold an attractive hedge against currency devaluation [80][81][82]. - The ongoing purchasing behavior of central banks indicates a strategic shift that could redefine the value of gold in the financial landscape [100].

Group 1 - The current gold bull market peaked in the first half of this year, with significant participation from younger investors, including those born in the 1990s and 2000s, who are using loans and credit to invest in gold [1][3] - After a period of fluctuation, gold prices began to rise again in late August, surpassing $3,700 per ounce, marking a nearly 10% increase [3] - The dynamics of gold prices are now detached from traditional economic indicators, reflecting a broader sense of instability in the current financial era [3][12] Group 2 - The concept of investing in gold can be seen as a way to short credit currencies, as governments continue to increase their debt while maintaining low borrowing costs [4][6] - Since the late 1970s, global debt levels have surged, with government debt alone reaching $103.7 trillion, indicating a systemic reliance on credit [15][18] - The current economic environment is characterized by a significant expansion of debt, with total global debt reaching $324 trillion, which is 3 times the existing money supply [20][18] Group 3 - The expectation of interest rate cuts by central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, is influencing market behavior, with a high probability of rate reductions anticipated [32][34] - The actual interest rates across major economies are currently below 2%, and there is a likelihood of returning to negative interest rates, which would further devalue existing debts [42][43] - The unprecedented scale of gold purchases by central banks, reaching record levels in 2022 and 2023, has led to a decoupling of gold prices from traditional valuation models [50][53] Group 4 - The ongoing large-scale acquisition of gold by central banks is a significant driver of gold price increases, as it reflects a shift in strategy to hedge against economic uncertainty [49][50] - The traditional three-factor model for gold pricing has become ineffective, leading to unpredictable surges in gold prices despite rising real interest rates [53][55] - The overarching trend suggests that as long as central banks continue to aggressively purchase gold, individual investors may benefit from following this trend [56][57]

于是一番扭捏拉扯，最后美帝靠着手段高明，拳头过硬，终于干死了金本位裸奔。虽然勾搭了一个石油，看起来好像锚定了石油，但问题是，产油多少 跟美元的发行量没有一毛钱的关系。实际上美元并没有锚，你以为是美债？呵呵，笑死了，美债现在余额37万亿美元，美元到底发了多少？美联储敢给 人查查吗？ 今年早些时候，马斯克异想天开，想去查美联储的账，结果最后自己都被踢出白宫，跟懂王在网上隔空互骂，感情破裂。虽然彼此也传出了有求和的意 思，但信任肯定是没有了，特马在政坛上永远回不到从前了。 每个大周期都是一个赖账的循环，周而复始。 当你弄明白这个道理，就会明白，在信用货币时代，哪里有什么通缩。遇到短暂的通缩周期，这就是上天给你捡钱的机会。这个时候如果选择了恐惧， 真的只能说一句，祝你幸福。 印钞机人人都有，但无脑无节制的印钞必然会直接干崩货币信用，结果就是本币没有人愿意用，国际结算中，别人不收你咋办？ 70年代美国好莱坞的明星甚至都开始耍大牌不收美元了，更受欢迎的是当时的南非兰特。因为美元不能直接兑换黄金了，但兰特可以啊，毕竟地球上的 黄金一半多都埋在南非地底下呢。 只不过后来FBI出面，发出著名的FBI WARNING，不肯接受美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between gold, the US dollar, and the Triffin Dilemma, emphasizing that the current crisis of the dollar presents investment opportunities in gold as a hedge against currency instability [5][24]. Group 1: The Lake House Agreement - The so-called "Lake House Agreement" suggests that the US may be attempting to engage in a financial war globally, although no official text exists [4]. - The agreement includes demands for trade partners to appreciate their currencies against the dollar and to classify countries as allies or adversaries for tariff purposes [4]. - The challenges of implementing such an agreement are acknowledged, particularly regarding its feasibility with allies and trade partners [4]. Group 2: Historical Context of Currency - The article traces the origins of credit currency back to 17th century England, where goldsmiths began issuing receipts that evolved into banknotes [6][8]. - The establishment of the Bank of England marked a significant shift in government financing, allowing for a stable source of revenue beyond taxes and loans from merchants [9]. - The article highlights the inherent monopoly of credit currency, where only the most trusted credit can be widely accepted [9]. Group 3: The Nature of Government Credit - The article discusses the paradox of government credit: if a government is too weak, its currency may be replaced; if too strong, it risks losing credibility [11]. - Historical examples from China illustrate how excessive issuance of paper currency during times of war led to loss of public trust and eventual economic collapse [19][20]. Group 4: The Triffin Dilemma - The Triffin Dilemma describes the conflict between the need for the US to run trade deficits to supply the world with dollars and the need to maintain the dollar's value [25][27]. - The article notes that the end of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 marked a significant shift, allowing the US to print money without the constraint of gold reserves [27][28]. - The ongoing challenge for the US is to balance international obligations with domestic economic stability, a task complicated by political pressures [29]. Group 5: Gold as a Hedge - The article concludes that gold serves as a "vote of no confidence" against fiat currencies, particularly the dollar, as central banks increase their gold reserves amid currency crises [32][34]. - It argues that while credit currency is a significant innovation, it requires a balanced government that is neither too strong nor too weak to maintain public trust [35]. - The potential for digital currencies to replace gold as a stable value store is also mentioned, indicating a shift in the future of monetary systems [35].